[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks

[Maniwaki Canuck]

17 hours ago, JM_ said:

If he's worth a massive trade return then he's worth the salary. 

There's a lot of truth to this.  You could quibble that the trade and FA markets for him are different so his value could diverge from one to the other a bit, but it's basically right.

So what does it mean for his next contract that we apparently weren't offered a serious hockey deal for him at the trade deadline?  Is this why various "insiders" are now talking 8 to 8.5M for him instead of the 9 to 9.5M we were hearing earlier (mostly on this board)?  

My sense is that the rest of the league isn't quite ready to value Miller at his current level of play, probably for the same reasons that some people on this board want to trade him.  So how does that not negatively affect his next contract?

We all know the stupid moves teams have made historically in free agency but with the cap being so tight and legitimately good players available at bargain prices, I have to think the top end of the FA market is in the process of correcting. 

[JM_]

47 minutes ago, aGENT said:

 

By "now", I assume you mean this summer?

 

In that case, given I don't think there's any realistic scenario we extend him, we do have to get "something" for him. Likely including a first.

 

Yes, that will likely be a late first (though the possibility of a team in the middle, looking at him as a cherry on top, to push them forward, might offer a mid one). But people need to just stop with the borderline-straw man "only a late first " comments, simply so they have something to attack.

 

Nobody is suggesting it will be the main piece of the trade.

you aren't, but others have. I'm too lazy to go find and quote it but others have said it. 

 

I actually am fine with using Miller as an own-rental next year if they can't reach a reasonable extension and the trade offers are just picks. We traded a 20thoa, and have got amazing value for that. If we're on a nice run next year and look to be solidly in the playoffs (e.g. firmly in 3rd in the Pacific) I'd rather just keep him for the run than get back another late 1st, if thats the best offer out there at the time. 

 

47 minutes ago, aGENT said:

 

Solid, sure. IMO, guys like Othmann, Lundqvist, Chytil etc are pretty safe bets to be NHL players. And players with some (though not likely current-Miller) upside. Which again, isn't the point.

 

Again, nobody is suggesting a high risk player like Kravstov as the key piece coming back.  Could he be a 3rd or 4th piece... ? Sure. Main piece? Nope.

 

Again, let's stop with the borderline-straw men here, and posting like there's a bunch of insane Canuck fans who want to move Miller for Kravstov, a late first and future considerations. Have the decency to at least argue with reality. There's no reason to turn the discussion in to a trucker convoy with alternate facts and half truths.

I'm not saying you've done that. 

[JM_]

4 minutes ago, Maniwaki Canuck said:

There's a lot of truth to this.  You could quibble that the trade and FA markets for him are different so his value could diverge from one to the other a bit, but it's basically right.

So what does it mean for his next contract that we apparently weren't offered a serious hockey deal for him at the trade deadline?  Is this why various "insiders" are now talking 8 to 8.5M for him instead of the 9 to 9.5M we were hearing earlier (mostly on this board)?  

My sense is that the rest of the league isn't quite ready to value Miller at his current level of play, probably for the same reasons that some people on this board want to trade him.  So how does that not negatively affect his next contract?

We all know the stupid moves teams have made historically in free agency but with the cap being so tight and legitimately good players available at bargain prices, I have to think the top end of the FA market is in the process of correcting. 

thats what I keep coming back to, why wasn't there the massive trade for him? if people really thought he was worth Laffy or Schneider, a 1st and a roster C, why didn't that happen? I don't believe Rutherford says no to that kind of deal. 

 

I think the contract info is coming out of Millers agent, not from the Canuck side. I do think that hurts his trade value somewhat.

[Maniwaki Canuck]

1 minute ago, JM_ said:

thats what I keep coming back to, why wasn't there the massive trade for him? if people really thought he was worth Laffy or Schneider, a 1st and a roster C, why didn't that happen? I don't believe Rutherford says no to that kind of deal. 

 

I think the contract info is coming out of Millers agent, not from the Canuck side. I do think that hurts his trade value somewhat.

Absolutely.  Rutherford for sure would have taken a deal like that.  His line about wanting to give the current group a chance to make the playoffs plays well to the home crowd (myself included) but it's also a tactical response to lowball offers that he couldn't accept. 

[JM_]

Just now, Maniwaki Canuck said:

Absolutely.  Rutherford for sure would have taken a deal like that.  His line about wanting to give the current group a chance to make the playoffs plays well to the home crowd (myself included) but it's also a tactical response to lowball offers that he couldn't accept. 

if a Miller trade is going to happen, it will likely include contract extension discussions with other teams, and that 8.5x8 thing will have to come down. His agent is setting a public ceiling on the next contract, thats all. 

[Maniwaki Canuck]

2 minutes ago, JM_ said:

if a Miller trade is going to happen, it will likely include contract extension discussions with other teams, and that 8.5x8 thing will have to come down. His agent is setting a public ceiling on the next contract, thats all. 

I can't see us getting anything close to value from a Miller trade without the other team having a clear idea of what the extension would be.  The timing is a bit dicey though, since he can't re-sign until the summer but the teams might want to do such a deal before free agency. 

It makes a lot of sense that this latest round of speculation about Miller's next contract could be driven by his agent.  Basically he's putting their initial ask out in public, like you say.  Teams will take it from there and the price will likely go down. 

If it doesn't work out and we end up keeping him until the TDL next year and getting lesser value for him as a strict rental, so be it.  If teams aren't offering more than that price I'm perfectly happy watching a great player at the top of his game on our team. 

 

[Nucker 67]

What will be interesting is how Miller plays after the Canucks have been eliminated from the playoff race.

 

Will he just float out there with little passion? Will he start to give up on plays again? It should give management a glimpse of what to expect from JT.

[aGENT]

2 hours ago, Maniwaki Canuck said:

Is this why various "insiders" are now talking 8 to 8.5M for him instead of the 9 to 9.5M we were hearing earlier (mostly on this board)?  

Those numbers are based on 8 year terms FWIW. Shorter term = higher AAV.

 

IMO, his agent is going to be asking for +/- $65m. Divide that by whatever term to get your AAV.

[Maniwaki Canuck]

3 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Those numbers are based on 8 year terms FWIW. Shorter term = higher AAV.

 

IMO, his agent is going to be asking for +/- $65m. Divide that by whatever term to get your AAV.

Sure, whatever, it's just their opening ask.  What teams are willing to pay in a contract and trade asset cost is a separate matter. 

[aGENT]

2 hours ago, JM_ said:

you aren't, but others have. I'm too lazy to go find and quote it but others have said it. 

 

I actually am fine with using Miller as an own-rental next year if they can't reach a reasonable extension and the trade offers are just picks. We traded a 20thoa, and have got amazing value for that. If we're on a nice run next year and look to be solidly in the playoffs (e.g. firmly in 3rd in the Pacific) I'd rather just keep him for the run than get back another late 1st, if thats the best offer out there at the time. 

 

I'm not saying you've done that. 

I honestly can't believe the best offer we would get for him is a late first and throwaway prospect. He's simply got too much value.

 

I think management (rightly) was asking for a major overpayment if someone wanted two runs with him, and we were in the middle of a playoff fight.

 

Fair enough that nobody paid that. That doesn't mean there won't be real offers this summer though (and potentially with more suitors).

 

Zero chance he's an own rental. Management has made that a clear mandate from day one and illustrated it by moving Motte. Very little chance this gets past summer IMO.

[wai_lai416]

18 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

What will be interesting is how Miller plays after the Canucks have been eliminated from the playoff race.

 

Will he just float out there with little passion? Will he start to give up on plays again? It should give management a glimpse of what to expect from JT.

no if there's an opportunity to pad his stats he would try.. why wouldn't he? would only make him richer in the upcoming contract.. but i wouldn't be surprised at him not care about defense if he turns the puck over or he's the last man.. i mean he's done it all season while they were in a race.. so why would it change?

[Maniwaki Canuck]

3 minutes ago, aGENT said:

I honestly can't believe the best offer we would get for him is a late first and throwaway prospect. He's simply got too much value.

 

I think management (rightly) was asking for a major overpayment if someone wanted two runs with him, and we were in the middle of a playoff fight.

 

Fair enough that nobody paid that. That doesn't mean there won't be real offers this summer though (and potentially with more suitors).

 

Zero chance he's an own rental. Management has made that a clear mandate from day one and illustrated it by moving Motte. Very little chance this gets past summer IMO.

I agree with all this, but whatever we were being offered a month before the TDL was low enough that he was publicly taken off the market.  That was when his value was supposed to be the highest.  Almost certainly more teams will be interested during the summer but as of now it doesn't look like his value is quite as high as we thought, whether that's in trade, his next contract, or a combination of the two. 

[Kobayashi Maru]

The best thing we can hope for is that the Rangers lose in the 1st round and determine C scoring depth and grit to be the reason.  

[aGENT]

28 minutes ago, Maniwaki Canuck said:

I agree with all this, but whatever we were being offered a month before the TDL was low enough that he was publicly taken off the market.  That was when his value was supposed to be the highest.  Almost certainly more teams will be interested during the summer but as of now it doesn't look like his value is quite as high as we thought, whether that's in trade, his next contract, or a combination of the two. 

Frankly both extremes are annoying  We aren't moving Miller for Kravstov and a late first. Nor are we getting Laffy, Schneider, Othmann, and their next two firsts. Nor were we likely asking for that much, even at the TDL.

 

That doesn't mean his value isn't still high. My guess is we were getting "summer value" offers at the TDL instead of what the team felt they'd need, to move him for two runs, at the TDL, with the team battling for a playoff spot.

 

So why not just wait until the summer to get those same offers and open up the market to more teams?

 

Teams had to overpay to get him at the TDL. None did. That doesn't mean his value isn't high.

 

2 hours ago, JM_ said:

if a Miller trade is going to happen, it will likely include contract extension discussions with other teams, and that 8.5x8 thing will have to come down. His agent is setting a public ceiling on the next contract, thats all. 

Come down? Maybe. But we're talking hundreds of K difference in the AAV here, not millions. Barring a low tax contender nabbing him, he's not likely signing for less than Hertl. He might not get quite as much as Zib being a year older, and without the same lengthy track record, but it's not going to be far off that $65m I mentioned (Zib is $68 FWIW).

Edited March 30, 2022 by aGENT

[JM_]

51 minutes ago, aGENT said:

I honestly can't believe the best offer we would get for him is a late first and throwaway prospect. He's simply got too much value.

 

I think management (rightly) was asking for a major overpayment if someone wanted two runs with him, and we were in the middle of a playoff fight.

 

Fair enough that nobody paid that. That doesn't mean there won't be real offers this summer though (and potentially with more suitors).

 

Zero chance he's an own rental. Management has made that a clear mandate from day one and illustrated it by moving Motte. Very little chance this gets past summer IMO.

If we can convert Miller into a hockey trade that makes sense and is correct on value I'm fine with it. 

 

My concern is (and other GMs have done it) that we don't turn Miller into the O'Reilly deal and over value the picks and prospects side of things. 

[Boknows08]

I keep on going back to Boston if Miller was to be dealt with making a hockey trade. 

Miller, Myers for Carlo, Debrusk, Beecher and 23 1st. 

Carlo is the top 4 rhd we covet to pair with Hughes. Debrusk along side Petey or Bo will pot 30. Beecher is a big strong centre who can skate to fill the 3c,not far away, and a 1st in a great draft. Bergeron is starting to age and a ufa so Miller takes over their 1c position. Myers somewhat replaces Carlo. Or put Beecher on the wing and os Nic Roy. Big rh centre. Anything less than 4.1 mill is only a 2nd. Yes shouldn't be giving up top picks but he fills a huge need and fits our core age.

[Gawdzukes]

2 hours ago, aGENT said:

Frankly both extremes are annoying  We aren't moving Miller for Kravstov and a late first. Nor are we getting Laffy, Schneider, Othmann, and their next two firsts. Nor were we likely asking for that much, even at the TDL.

 

That doesn't mean his value isn't still high. My guess is we were getting "summer value" offers at the TDL instead of what the team felt they'd need, to move him for two runs, at the TDL, with the team battling for a playoff spot.

 

So why not just wait until the summer to get those same offers and open up the market to more teams?

 

Teams had to overpay to get him at the TDL. None did. That doesn't mean his value isn't high.

 

Come down? Maybe. But we're talking hundreds of K difference in the AAV here, not millions. Barring a low tax contender nabbing him, he's not likely signing for less than Hertl. He might not get quite as much as Zib being a year older, and without the same lengthy track record, but it's not going to be far off that $65m I mentioned (Zib is $68 FWIW).

Every team is going to have a rethink after the season is over. A heck of a lot could and always does change every year. Any number of teams could be interested with a wide array of possibilities. As long as something happens in the summer is very important, whether he signs with us or is traded. I still think we'll be offered a decent package. I hope we take it. Just as an aside another first rounder (not the main piece) would be fun at the draft. The last couple of years were pretty bleak for picks.

[N4ZZY]

16 hours ago, stawns said:

Why would Miller do that?

He wouldn’t. 

 

Like any other player, he’ll want to win, but he’ll want to be compensated just as well. He won’t take 5 years at 8M, when he can get 8 years, at 8M. Why would he take the lesser deal when someone else is willing to offer him maximum? 

 

[Coconuts]

4 hours ago, Maniwaki Canuck said:

I agree with all this, but whatever we were being offered a month before the TDL was low enough that he was publicly taken off the market.  That was when his value was supposed to be the highest.  Almost certainly more teams will be interested during the summer but as of now it doesn't look like his value is quite as high as we thought, whether that's in trade, his next contract, or a combination of the two. 

Leading up to the deadline my argument had been that his value was never going to be higher than it was prior to the deadline and I stick to that, but the caveat to that is that because his value was so high there were probably only going to be a few teams who'd consider trying to trade for him. Colorado could have, but they elected to bolster multiple areas of their roster instead. Tampa didn't have the space but made a deal for a cost controlled asset who's scoring. Florida went after Giroux, and they paid less than they would have for Miller because the only place Giroux was interested in being moved to was Florida, Florida had Philly by the balls. The Rangers didn't do anything of real significance, which is baffling given this was probably their best opportunity to go for it. 

 

Teams who Miller could have put over the top either didn't buy our improved their roster in different ways. Does this speak to Miller's value not being high? I wouldn't say so. But it does speak to our ask being steep and other teams not feeling like paying up for whatever reasons. It could have also been a reluctance from management to make moves that tipped the scales, we haven't really seen leaks since this management group took over so for all we know they got offers but they weren't offers they couldn't refuse. We don't know, but maybe it'll come out later. 

 

It's also trickier for teams to clear out significant cap space during the regular season as you've less flex time to work with, and you've got teams who question whether it's worth risking the chemistry of already performing rosters. I'd imagine it's easier to make significant additions or subtractions during the offseason when your current position in the standings doesn't potentially hang in the balance. 

 

It's likely we have more potential trade partners in the summer, as you and others have said, but while I think Miller's value pre-trade deadline was higher I don't think it'll have tanked or dipped a drastic amount by the offseason. And if anything, having more potential trade partners might partially mitigate any drop in value because there'll be more teams who can bid. 

 

Value is a funny thing, because we'll never be able to move any of our players for more than another team is prepared to pay, and in an ever shifting billion dollar NHL environment that's likely always shifting. 

[D.B Cooper]

2 hours ago, Boknows08 said:

I keep on going back to Boston if Miller was to be dealt with making a hockey trade. 

Miller, Myers for Carlo, Debrusk, Beecher and 23 1st. 

Carlo is the top 4 rhd we covet to pair with Hughes. Debrusk along side Petey or Bo will pot 30. Beecher is a big strong centre who can skate to fill the 3c,not far away, and a 1st in a great draft. Bergeron is starting to age and a ufa so Miller takes over their 1c position. Myers somewhat replaces Carlo. Or put Beecher on the wing and os Nic Roy. Big rh centre. Anything less than 4.1 mill is only a 2nd. Yes shouldn't be giving up top picks but he fills a huge need and fits our core age.

Sorry, but that is terrible.  

Despite what a few meatheads here say, Myers has decent value.  He isn’t a free toss in.  

No want in Debrusk.  Soft. Only really had one good year 3-4 seasons ago. 

Beecher isn’t a great prospect. 
 

The first is pretty low. 

That package would be underwhelming and could be better for just Miller, let alone adding Myers.