[Rumour] Boeser On Block

[RWJC]

7 minutes ago, Alflives said:

his goal was a shot very few can make.  scoring clean on NHL goalies is special.  

His shot - when it’s on - is great.

For 7.5 there is no off switch. We can’t afford it. 

[RWJC]

Just now, aGENT said:

IMO, this has never been a Miller vs Boeser situation. That's oversimplified.

 

We may move Boeser, largely given his lack of speed, potential high next contract, and perhaps an ill fit with what new management wants to play like. That's said, particularly that we'd likely be selling low and he appears to be committed to staying here, I'd expect he'll sign a reasonable extension. He's also a better complimentary player than many here are giving him credit for.

 

We can also, always still move him later.

 

But we also may move Miller due to not wanting to commit the retirement deal cap and term that will be required, for a soon to be  30+,  declining player that also may have zero intention of staying here.

 

One, does not preclude the other. That's an oversimplified take IMO.

 

No it’s not. You have to circulate the cap space into D as well and revamp.

That’s why we/Rutherford/Allvin and chipmunks, have preached young and cheaper. the big complaint is cap space. 
 

bruce has this team playing up to its potential now. Over the course of a full season perhaps that’s a playoff club. 
but we can all almost agree the depth is a problem. Consistency among some players is still a problem. Bruce alone can’t change this team’s fortunes. We’ve waited on this group for a few years now with some major tweaks and still a middling club. Singing some of the same players to more money is not the answer. It will keep us continuously treading water, rather than take the necessary steps to actually start swimming with the playoff sharks.

[Ferlands_Head]

30 minutes ago, 204CanucksFan said:

So just curious, with everyone discussing how soft Boeser is, how he's never scored 30 goals, how he's not worth a raise on his new contract or how he doesn't 'drive play', I was just wondering how much people are attributing coaching to his past performance?

 

I mean Boeser, until recently, has only ever played under one NHL coach, who had a defense first mantra as opposed to an offense first approach. I think Green's style of coaching can best be summed up as 'play to not lose' where Boudreau is more along the lines of 'play to win'.

 

Since Boudreau has taken over the team Boeser is our leading goal scorer and is scoring at a 40+ goal pace.

 

The hardest thing to do in the NHL is score goals and since he joined the league, only a mere 4.5 seasons ago, he has been one of the best in the league, 41st in goals among all skaters, as many or more goals than Giroux ($8.275M), Pacioretty ($7M), Meier ($6M), Kopitar ($10M), Ehlers ($6M), Benn ($9.5M), Stone ($9.5M), Larkin ($6.1M). So does that make him worth his next contract which will most likely be about $7M?

 

Also just wondering how you expect to replace a 24 year old who scores at a career 0.38 goals per game, which does equate to 32 goals overall 82 game season. And sure, he had some injuries in his first 2 seasons but over the last 3 seasons he has played 93% of the teams games, it's not his fault the previous 2 seasons were shortened by Covid, last season he played all of the games and scored at a 35 goal pace over a full season. Not to mention if he continues to score at the current pace he has since Boudreau took over the team he will finish the year with 32 goals.

Coaching does play a part in it but he was actually regressing under the same coach. 

 

Pace is one thing, actually playing the games and maintaining the pace is another. 

 

Being 43rd in goals does not make you one of the best in the league IMO. Benn is completely washed up at this point and most of those guys are older players at the tail end of their career, minus Timo Ehlers and Larkin, Stone has barely played. I wouldn't consider any of those guys one of the best in the league in goal scoring. I'd be ok with BB in the Timo Meier/Ehlers range. around 6M.

 

There are many players you can sign in FA that would replace him if not do better. TT offered almost the same production at 4M. IMO the money is better spent elsewhere like fixing the defense. His 4 playoff goals can easily be replaced even by guys like Tyler Motte. You can put it that way that he can score at a 32 goal pace but he's never done it, injuries are a big issue for him. I think he's already damaged goods as his shot has never been the same since 17-18

[aGENT]

8 minutes ago, RWJC said:

No it’s not. You have to circulate the cap space into D as well and revamp.

That’s why we/Rutherford/Allvin and chipmunks, have preached young and cheaper. the big complaint is cap space. 
 

bruce has this team playing up to its potential now. Over the course of a full season perhaps that’s a playoff club. 
but we can all almost agree the depth is a problem. Consistency among some players is still a problem. Bruce alone can’t change this team’s fortunes. We’ve waited on this group for a few years now with some major tweaks and still a middling club. Singing some of the same players to more money is not the answer. It will keep us continuously treading water, rather than take the necessary steps to actually start swimming with the playoff sharks.

Completely agree with all of that. Still doesn't make this a Miller vs Boeser situation.

 

Like I said, it's entirely possible we move both.

 

 

[IBatch]

2 hours ago, stawns said:

Miller wouldn't factor into anything because the team won't be able to afford him even if he wanted to stay, which I don't think he does

 

again, I didn't say that's what they should give BB, I'm saying that's what I would expect a player that does what BB does to be paid.......not BB himself.

I do think do need to re-set the teams cap.   Fear over Brocks deal is likely not a real factor.   He knows if he goes to arbitration he won't get it - the cap didn't go up did it - and if he makes ridiculous demands it's see you later time.    I expect a reasonable deal or he's on the block.   Same with Miller. 

Edited February 19, 2022 by IBatch

[VegasCanuck]

20 minutes ago, RWJC said:

His shot - when it’s on - is great.

For 7.5 there is no off switch. We can’t afford it. 

Where are you getting the idea that we can't afford it? I've done some detailed forecasts of this team salary across the next 5 years. He fits.

 

There is a preconception that we can't afford Boeser, and although I believe he will likely be traded, it has nothing to do with affordability. It has everything to do with, to get what we need, we're going to have to give something up. I think Boeser is the most realistic chip as we are fairly deep on the RW.

[Jester13]

4 hours ago, aGENT said:

Wait... Pearson is soft now?

[RWJC]

6 minutes ago, VegasCanuck said:

Where are you getting the idea that we can't afford it? I've done some detailed forecasts of this team salary across the next 5 years. He fits.

 

There is a preconception that we can't afford Boeser, and although I believe he will likely be traded, it has nothing to do with affordability. It has everything to do with, to get what we need, we're going to have to give something up. I think Boeser is the most realistic chip as we are fairly deep on the RW.

Could you pls repost your numbers? Thanks!

[combover]

2017-18	Vancouver Canucks	NHL	62	29	26	55	16	-5	--	--	--	--	--
2018-19	Vancouver Canucks	NHL	69	26	30	56	22	-2	--	--	--	--	--
2019-20	Vancouver Canucks	NHL	57	16	29	45	14	4	17	4	7	11	10
2020-21	Vancouver Canucks	NHL	56	23	26	49	16	-3	--	--	--	--	--
2021-22	Vancouver Canucks	NHL	44	15	13	28	12	-5

boeser lacks speed lol that’s the “soup of the day”excuse to move him. 

a consistent 50 point player on pace to be close to 30 goals and 60 points. He has one of the best shots on the team and know where and how to be effective. 

 

the only reason to trade boeser is he won’t sign a extension or we get a ridiculous offer. 
he’s only 24. 

BALANCE  is the the forgotten part of what JR and PA have said not every player has to be fast. 

so according to the stupid “lacks speed” excuse getting a fast player that can’t shoot would be an improvement. Huh. Makes sense. 
 

His so called “lack of speed” hasn’t hurt his production over the last 4 years.
Oh right I forgot  the sedins were both such high speed players. They must have been ineffective… lol.

 

 

 

 

[stawns]

27 minutes ago, IBatch said:

I do think do need to re-set the teams cap.   Fear over Brocks deal is likely not a real factor.   He knows if he goes to arbitration he won't get it - the cap didn't go up did it - and if he makes ridiculous demands it's see you later time.    I expect a reasonable deal or he's on the block.   Same with Miller. 

Bit you'd agree it's fair to say BB will be getting a moderately significant raise wouldn't you?  For me, anything higher than what he's giving now is a waste of valuable cap space when theres far more pressing things to address

 

Miller won't be taking a discount of any kind.  This is the defining contract of his career and the one that will set up him and his family for life and his kids lives.  He won't leave a dollar on the table, imo ........why would he?

 

 

[stawns]

28 minutes ago, VegasCanuck said:

Where are you getting the idea that we can't afford it? I've done some detailed forecasts of this team salary across the next 5 years. He fits.

 

There is a preconception that we can't afford Boeser, and although I believe he will likely be traded, it has nothing to do with affordability. It has everything to do with, to get what we need, we're going to have to give something up. I think Boeser is the most realistic chip as we are fairly deep on the RW.

Sure they "couid", but it will be at the cost of other areas of the lineup that need to be addressed.  

[aGENT]

2 minutes ago, stawns said:

Bit you'd agree it's fair to say BB will be getting a moderately significant raise wouldn't you?  For me, anything higher than what he's giving now is a waste of valuable cap space when theres far more pressing things to address

 

Miller won't be taking a discount of any kind.  This is the defining contract of his career and the one that will set up him and his family for life and his kids lives.  He won't leave a dollar on the table, imo ........why would he?

 

 

I doubt he's getting much over $6.5m. we're taking at MOST, an extra $1m. Much ado about nothing IMO.

 

Now if management feels we're better off with someone capable of say 3/4 of his offense, while bringing more speed and/or grit, or a much needed, high ceiling RD etc... By all means.

 

But his cap itself isn't remotely an issue IMO.

[stawns]

2 minutes ago, aGENT said:

I doubt he's getting much over $6.5m. we're taking at MOST, an extra $1m. Much ado about nothing IMO.

 

Now if management feels we're better off with someone capable of say 3/4 of his offense, while bringing more speed and/or grit, or a much needed, high ceiling RD etc... By all means.

 

But his cap itself isn't remotely an issue IMO.

I think he'll likely get a mill raise and that's a million and a half too much for what he provides, imo.  

[VegasCanuck]

32 minutes ago, RWJC said:

Could you pls repost your numbers? Thanks!

This is the overview of what I posted at the start of the season:

------------------------------------------------------

I'm still working off the NHL's projection that cap will rise 1 million per for the next few years, meaning that we'll have 84.5 million to play with in that season.

 

Forwards:

Pettersson - 10.5 million Per

Boeser - 8 million per (likely 8 years)

Horvat 7 million per (likely 8 years)

Miller or Miller replacement 5 million per I'm assuming that he will eventually be pushed out by younger / cheaper player. Maybe Klimovich??

Garland 4.95 million per

Dickinson 3 million per or similar player. He may be squeezed out by one of our upcoming by then at a lower cap hit.

Motte 2.5 million - or similar player, I'm assuming that he will eventually be squeezed out by younger guys playing similar game

Hoglander 5 million per - I'm assuming a bridge deal on this one, same as Pettersson and Hughes

Podkolzin - 5 million per - I'm projecting his 2nd contract and assuming that it will likely be a bridge deal

Total for Top 9 Forwards, 50.95 million

 

Defense:

OEL 7.26 million

Hughes 7.75 million

Rathbone 3.0 million - will sign a bridge deal, has no arbitration rights and can't get an offer sheet

Juolevi 2.5 million

Poolman I think will eventually be traded and replaced at similar cap hit, possibly to make room for Woo

 

Total top 4 Defense: 20.51

 

Demko - 5 million - I'm assuming that we will carry one primary and a sub 1 million backup moving forward. Unless DiPietro proves he's better than Demko, DiPietro will eventually be moved for picks or prospects. I think we ride Demko at least till the end of his current contract.

 

Total 76.46 projected 2024/25 cap hit!

 

That leaves 8.04 million to round out the roster, not accounting for LTIR, which happens every year, or other changes.

This is just my estimate, there will be trades and moves. I don't think Myers will be here till the end of his contract and it's very likely someone on my forward and defense projections will be moved to spread out cap space, the same as all competitive teams do. Look what has happened in Tampa the last few years on moving guys out to make room.

 

I should actually save this somewhere and look back in 3 years and see how close I was.

 

[VegasCanuck]

11 minutes ago, stawns said:

Sure they "couid", but it will be at the cost of other areas of the lineup that need to be addressed.  

I think we need upgrades down the left side as well as RD.

[aGENT]

Just now, stawns said:

I think he'll likely get a mill raise and that's a million and a half too much for what he provides, imo.  

Well, you're wrong then. Happens to everyone 

 

Prime age Boeser is a +/- $6.5m player. 

 

Again, I have no problems if he gets moved for different skill sets, roster holes etc. But a +/-30 goal, one shot scorer with leadership, character, play making and an underrated 2 way game, is worth that hit in 2023.

[204CanucksFan]

48 minutes ago, Ferlands_Head said:

Coaching does play a part in it but he was actually regressing under the same coach. 

 

Pace is one thing, actually playing the games and maintaining the pace is another. 

 

Being 43rd in goals does not make you one of the best in the league IMO. Benn is completely washed up at this point and most of those guys are older players at the tail end of their career, minus Timo Ehlers and Larkin, Stone has barely played. I wouldn't consider any of those guys one of the best in the league in goal scoring. I'd be ok with BB in the Timo Meier/Ehlers range. around 6M.

 

There are many players you can sign in FA that would replace him if not do better. TT offered almost the same production at 4M. IMO the money is better spent elsewhere like fixing the defense. His 4 playoff goals can easily be replaced even by guys like Tyler Motte. You can put it that way that he can score at a 32 goal pace but he's never done it, injuries are a big issue for him. I think he's already damaged goods as his shot has never been the same since 17-18

There are only 40 players that have scored more goals than Boeser since he joined the league, in that same period 466 players have played at least 200 NHL games (I'm just trying to exclude a large portion of players that may have just entered the league or are simply tweeners with a game or two in the last 4.5 seasons) that puts Boeser in the 91st percentile for NHL regulars as a goal scorer. That also means, in a 32 team league, that most teams only have 1 player that can score more goals than Boeser.

 

As for damaged goods, like I mentioned in the post you quoted, Boeser has played in 93% of games over the last 3 seasons.

 

And as far as your notion that Boeser can be replaced by someone like Motte, Boeser has more goals and points in his first 9 game season and his first full season than Motte has in his entire career to date and more than twice the amount of career playoff points, not to mention Motte has only managed to play 53% of the games over the last 3 seasons, the least of any Canuck regular in the same time. 

 

Yes, last season, Toffoli had a great year and made his contract look great in the prime of his career, but Boeser has been more consistent, put up 14 more goals and 35 more points in his first 5 seasons in the NHL than Toffoli did and Boeser is just starting to enter his prime. 

 

Oh and Mark Stone who has 'barely played'??? has only played 5 less games than Boeser

[NHL97OneTimer]

16 hours ago, bad alice french said:

Take Burr off the twin line and he was a third liner at best. Love him but he had great timing and made the absolute most of the opportunity. 

I think his versatility was what got him up in the ring of honor.  And if you thought that the Sedins carried him, there were countless other players that didn't help the Sedins as much as Burrows.  The Sedins have publicly said that often.

[RWJC]

55 minutes ago, combover said:

2017-18	Vancouver Canucks	NHL	62	29	26	55	16	-5	--	--	--	--	--
2018-19	Vancouver Canucks	NHL	69	26	30	56	22	-2	--	--	--	--	--
2019-20	Vancouver Canucks	NHL	57	16	29	45	14	4	17	4	7	11	10
2020-21	Vancouver Canucks	NHL	56	23	26	49	16	-3	--	--	--	--	--
2021-22	Vancouver Canucks	NHL	44	15	13	28	12	-5

boeser lacks speed lol that’s the “soup of the day”excuse to move him. 

a consistent 50 point player on pace to be close to 30 goals and 60 points. He has one of the best shots on the team and know where and how to be effective. 

 

the only reason to trade boeser is he won’t sign a extension or we get a ridiculous offer. 
he’s only 24. 

BALANCE  is the the forgotten part of what JR and PA have said not every player has to be fast. 

so according to the stupid “lacks speed” excuse getting a fast player that can’t shoot would be an improvement. Huh. Makes sense. 
 

His so called “lack of speed” hasn’t hurt his production over the last 4 years.
Oh right I forgot  the sedins were both such high speed players. They must have been ineffective… lol.

 

 

 

 

1) when the majority of your linemates are faster than you, unless you are a seriously profound positional player, you can become a liability for any zone entry, back check, etc etc, typical game scenarios. Speed may not be a major factor when getting in to position to shoot, but if the puck is turned over, lack of foot speed (and commitment) is definitely a liability. 

2) ppl reference the sedins and foot speed. Apologies but that’s not a viable argument/comparison.

game has changed dramatically since their time, and also referencing two players who, IN COMBINATION, developed their own style of play that enabled them to become successful and dominate. If you’re comparing BB to Sedins then why don’t you also compare  leadership, durability, consistency, cardio/conditioning, and that’s just a few areas. If you want to stick with foot speed, that’s fine, but the success Sedins had was due to innovation, communication, and taking a less talented player and making them a first liner. If you want to argue BB has shown that, it may be tough go.

[Ferlands_Head]

1 minute ago, 204CanucksFan said:

There are only 40 players that have scored more goals than Boeser since he joined the league, in that same period 466 players have played at least 200 NHL games (I'm just trying to exclude a large portion of players that may have just entered the league or are simply tweeners with a game or two in the last 4.5 seasons) that puts Boeser in the 91st percentile for NHL regulars as a goal scorer. That also means, in a 32 team league, that most teams only have 1 player that can score more goals than Boeser.

 

As for damaged goods, like I mentioned in the post you quoted, Boeser has played in 93% of games over the last 3 seasons.

 

And as far as your notion that Boeser can be replaced by someone like Motte, Boeser has more goals and points in his first 9 game season and his first full season than Motte has in his entire career to date and more than twice the amount of career playoff points, not to mention Motte has only managed to play 53% of the games over the last 3 seasons, the least of any Canuck regular in the same time. 

 

Yes, last season, Toffoli had a great year and made his contract look great in the prime of his career, but Boeser has been more consistent, put up 14 more goals and 35 more points in his first 5 seasons in the NHL than Toffoli did and Boeser is just starting to enter his prime. 

 

Oh and Mark Stone who has 'barely played'??? has only played 5 less games than Boeser

There are 43 players that have outscored BB since he joined the league, I'm not sure how that makes him one of the best in the league. I'm not sure there's anybody other than you that considers him one of the best in the league. I don't feel he should be mentioned in the same sentence as guys like Pastrnak, Connor or even Debrincat (These guys are some of the best in the league) 

 

He's playing, but you can clearly see that his shot isn't what it was before. Like another poster stated earlier, he's not even in a shooting position on the PP anymore. His shot was lethal before but now even the coaching staff isn't utilizing his shot. 

 

It's a problem when your so called best goal scorer is putting up 4 goals in the playoffs. I was merely stating that Motte can match his goal production in the playoffs which is unacceptable. 

 

TT is still producing at close to a 60 pt pace this season which is about what BB puts up for way cheaper. BB is going to be 25 in a week and he hasn't even improved on his rookie season.