Trading Elite Players in their Prime -- Are we expecting too much?

[HKSR]

So a bunch of you clearly want to trade Miller right now while he's just entering his prime. 

 

Out of curiosity, who else can you think of that was traded in their prime and was hugely beneficial for their team?

 

Ryan O'Reilly?  When he was traded from Colorado, he was 24 and yet to break out.  When he was traded from Buffalo, he landed Buffalo--  Sobotka, Berglund, Thompson and a 1st (Ryan Johnson)

 

Martin St Louis?  Nope, he was traded at the age of 38 years old (I was actually a bit surprised when I read this too lol).

 

Mark Stone?  For Lindberg, Brannstrom and a 2nd (Egor Sokolov) ... still a bit early, but man, that doesn't look good.

 

Matt Duchene at 26yo?  For Turris, Hammond, Bowers, Round 1 (Byram), Round 3 (Stienburg) ... if Byram doesn't get his concussion issues under control, this doesn't look good.

Matt Duchene at 28yo?  For Davidsson, Abramov, Round 1 (Lassi Thomson) ... yikes...

 

Max Pacioretty?  Tatar, Suzuki, 2nd (Fagemo) ... this looked a lot better a little while ago, but it's not looking so great anymore. 

 

Can you think of a player traded in their prime where the return actually benefited the team that much? 

 

Might be good to temper our expectations of a JT Miller trade.  I think we may be setup for disappointment. 

 

[HKSR]

Looking at these returns, there might be an argument here to keep Miller as well. 

 

Unless you guys can come up with some trade scenarios where players in their prime really helped the team that traded them, I'd say there's almost a 0% chance (based on the examples I found) that it has a huge positive impact long term.

[Master Mind]

I've seen some think NYR will give Lafreniere+

 

So yes expectations for a trade are far too high for some.

[HKSR]

2 minutes ago, Master Mind said:

I've seen some think NYR will give Lafreniere+

 

So yes expectations for a trade are far too high for some.

Yeah I just get this feeling like people think trading Miller will completely transform this team moving forward.  By the looks of history, it doesn't appear that way.  I'm all ears though cuz I can't remember that many players being traded in their prime.

[Master Mind]

1 minute ago, HKSR said:

Yeah I just get this feeling like people think trading Miller will completely transform this team moving forward.  By the looks of history, it doesn't appear that way.  I'm all ears though cuz I can't remember that many players being traded in their prime.

It could, if for example a 1st is part of the return and we hit a home run with the pick. Or if we get a similar return to what Colorado got for Duchene.

 

Both scenarios are unlikely though.

 

Return will likely be a lesser roster player, good prospect, and a 1st.

 

 

[CaptainLinden16]

The simple reason for this is that people MASSIVELY overestimate the value of picks and prospects.  Magic beans!!!

 

Getting to the NHL is extremely hard, playing 200 games in the NHL is really hard, being an All-Star in the NHL is nearly impossible, being Connor McDavid is a once in a lifetime deal.  

 

If someone just looked at these things mathematically, they would be very discouraged on stockpiling picks.  People often confuse that because there are a few hits in picks after the top 10, that the likelihoods of that happening are reasonable.  They are not reasonable.  500 4-7th round picks are not worth a top 10 scorer in the NHL.  

 

Prospects are better than picks as you have more time to see performance.  What you really want is young players already in the NHL.  I am ok with trading Miller, but I want young NHL ready players.  Trading him for beans is dumb.  Not only are the probabilities low.  You also have to wait 2-3 year before you even know where you stand.

[Alflives]

15 minutes ago, Master Mind said:

I've seen some think NYR will give Lafreniere+

 

So yes expectations for a trade are far too high for some.

Hopefully we don't get Laugher or Crappo.  Those two are suckaroos.  Just say NO.  

[Nucker 67]

Starting to think that if they traded Miller, Boeser and/or Garland, they could sure get a real good Dman.  I hope they transform that D.

 

 

 

 

[Alflives]

Miller isn't a superstar, but he's a very good player.  We will trade him soon, and the return will be a good young D with top four upside.  A good prospect, like what Suzuki was when the Habs got him, and a first round pick.  

[komodo0921]

16 minutes ago, HKSR said:

So a bunch of you clearly want to trade Miller right now while he's just entering his prime. 

 

Out of curiosity, who else can you think of that was traded in their prime and was hugely beneficial for their team?

 

Ryan O'Reilly?  When he was traded from Colorado, he was 24 and yet to break out.  When he was traded from Buffalo, he landed Buffalo--  Sobotka, Berglund, Thompson and a 1st (Ryan Johnson)

 

Martin St Louis?  Nope, he was traded at the age of 38 years old (I was actually a bit surprised when I read this too lol).

 

Mark Stone?  For Lindberg, Brannstrom and a 2nd (Egor Sokolov) ... still a bit early, but man, that doesn't look good.

 

Matt Duchene at 26yo?  For Turris, Hammond, Bowers, Round 1 (Byram), Round 3 (Stienburg) ... if Byram doesn't get his concussion issues under control, this doesn't look good.

Matt Duchene at 28yo?  For Davidsson, Abramov, Round 1 (Lassi Thomson) ... yikes...

 

Max Pacioretty?  Tatar, Suzuki, 2nd (Fagemo) ... this looked a lot better a little while ago, but it's not looking so great anymore. 

 

Can you think of a player traded in their prime where the return actually benefited the team that much? 

 

Might be good to temper our expectations of a JT Miller trade.  I think we may be setup for disappointment. 

 

JT Miller- prefer to re-sign unless he's absolute about moving on.

Bo Horvat- same as Miller.

Connor Garland- don't want to see him dealt. He's signed long-term so obviously planned to stay.

As stated, I want to see this trio stay here long-term unless a trade offer is so good JR can't say no.

Tanner Pearson- would move

Tyler Motte- would move

Neither Pearson nor Motte would be cap-dumps. Would still want good hockey deals here.

Anybody else in, or entering, their primes, I'd move without hesitation, if I could.

 

[HKSR]

4 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Miller isn't a superstar, but he's a very good player.  We will trade him soon, and the return will be a good young D with top four upside.  A good prospect, like what Suzuki was when the Habs got him, and a first round pick.  

Based on history, where do you see that though?  Closest would be the Max trade.  Unless you equate Tatar to a good young D type player and you change the 2nd to a 1st, I'm doubtful right now that you get that much for Miller.

[250Integra]

I just don’t want to lose him for nothing. 

[goalie13]

40 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Can you think of a player traded in their prime where the return actually benefited the team that much? 

Not in his prime, but there was once a prospect named Eric Lindros that was traded for the building blocks of a Stanley Cup team.  Colorado easily won that trade.

[Alflives]

7 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Based on history, where do you see that though?  Closest would be the Max trade.  Unless you equate Tatar to a good young D type player and you change the 2nd to a 1st, I'm doubtful right now that you get that much for Miller.

The team getting Miller will have him for two playoffs.  He's on a great contract number.  He will absolutley return what said.  That's the minimum we get for him.  

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, goalie13 said:

Not in his prime, but there was once a prospect named Eric Lindros that was traded for the building blocks of a Stanley Cup team.  Colorado easily won that trade.

No surprise there.  It would have been like trading Crosby as a prospect lol

[HKSR]

Just now, Alflives said:

The team getting Miller will have him for two playoffs.  He's on a great contract number.  He will absolutley return what said.  That's the minimum we get for him.  

Hope you're right.  I have my doubts though based on history.

[khay]

33 minutes ago, HKSR said:

So a bunch of you clearly want to trade Miller right now while he's just entering his prime. 

 

Out of curiosity, who else can you think of that was traded in their prime and was hugely beneficial for their team?

 

Ryan O'Reilly?  When he was traded from Colorado, he was 24 and yet to break out.  When he was traded from Buffalo, he landed Buffalo--  Sobotka, Berglund, Thompson and a 1st (Ryan Johnson)

 

Martin St Louis?  Nope, he was traded at the age of 38 years old (I was actually a bit surprised when I read this too lol).

 

Mark Stone?  For Lindberg, Brannstrom and a 2nd (Egor Sokolov) ... still a bit early, but man, that doesn't look good.

 

Matt Duchene at 26yo?  For Turris, Hammond, Bowers, Round 1 (Byram), Round 3 (Stienburg) ... if Byram doesn't get his concussion issues under control, this doesn't look good.

Matt Duchene at 28yo?  For Davidsson, Abramov, Round 1 (Lassi Thomson) ... yikes...

 

Max Pacioretty?  Tatar, Suzuki, 2nd (Fagemo) ... this looked a lot better a little while ago, but it's not looking so great anymore. 

 

Can you think of a player traded in their prime where the return actually benefited the team that much? 

 

Might be good to temper our expectations of a JT Miller trade.  I think we may be setup for disappointment. 

 

 

Suzuki is garbage all of a sudden? I think Montreal won that trade.

 

Colorado won that trade too. Byram is a 4th overall pick. 

 

And a lot of the times, trading the big name players open up prime ice time for the younger guys. 

 

Duchene left and all of a sudden, MacKinnon comes out of his shell.

 

St. Louis trade let the young guys in Tamp take the next steps.

 

These successions must take place for the team to progress. Kinda like Sedins coming out and taking over the reigns from Bert and Nazzy. Sometimes, it happens naturally but most of the time, you just have to ship the veteran player(s) out to create an environment in which the young guys can excel.

 

 

 

[HKSR]

2 minutes ago, khay said:

 

Suzuki is garbage all of a sudden? I think Montreal won that trade.

 

Colorado won that trade too. Byram is a 4th overall pick. 

 

And a lot of the times, trading the big name players open up prime ice time for the younger guys. 

 

Duchene left and all of a sudden, MacKinnon comes out of his shell.

 

St. Louis trade let the young guys in Tamp take the next steps.

 

These successions must take place for the team to progress. Kinda like Sedins coming out and taking over the reigns from Bert and Nazzy. Sometimes, it happens naturally but most of the time, you just have to ship the veteran player(s) out to create an environment in which the young guys can excel.

 

 

 

I don't disagree with much of what you said, but moving Miller doesn't mean you'll get top tier returns. 

 

Sounds like Miller may or may not be moved too based on what JR just stated. 

[khay]

1 minute ago, HKSR said:

I don't disagree with much of what you said, but moving Miller doesn't mean you'll get top tier returns. 

 

Sounds like Miller may or may not be moved too based on what JR just stated. 

Right. That's why including a near NHL ready player is paramount in this deal.

 

I agree that we shouldn't expect Lafreniere + Schneider/Lundqvist + 1st. If we can get Schneider + 1st, that's already not a bad return since Schneider is handling NHL minutes pretty well.

[86Viking]

10 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I don't disagree with much of what you said, but moving Miller doesn't mean you'll get top tier returns. 

 

Sounds like Miller may or may not be moved too based on what JR just stated. 

What did JR just say?? And why he is the go to guy with GM Allvin hired...Sure hope its not just a puppet hire and we let him do what Allvin wants not let JR pull the  strings