2023 NHL Entry Draft

[HighOnHockey]

9 hours ago, HighOnHockey said:

Alright, I'll try finishing tomorrow, but this this may be as far as I get on my final mock. The parentheses with the personnel I expect to be most involved in making the pick were mostly just notes for myself, but I figured I'd leave them in, in case anyone is interested.

 

1. Chicago - Connor Bedard (Director of Amateur Scouting: Mike Doneghey) - Doesn't matter though, they're taking Bedard

2. Anaheim - Adam Fantilli (Directer of Player Evaluation: Bruce Franklin) - Again, probably wouldn't matter much who the scouts are behind the pick, Fantilli is the guy.

3. Columbus - Leo Carlsson (DAS: Ville Siren, ADAS: Trevor Timmins) - Timmins took Caufield early pretty recently, so there's some precedent for NTDP here, but Kekelainen seems to actively avoid drafting from that program. Besides, Carlsson seems to be the consensus BPA here.

4. San Jose - Will Smith (DAS: Chris Morehouse, DPP: Scott Fitzgerald) - Boston drafted incessantly out of the USHL and NTDP while Fitzgerald was there, so hard to imagine Smith falling past them here.

5. Montreal - Dalibor Dvorsky (DAS/DPP: Martin LaPointe, co-DAS: Nick Bobrov) - Maybe this is my personal bias showing, but they did take a Slovak first overall and another in the first round last year. Dvorsky feels like a Martin LaPointe kinda pick, although the same could be said for Leonard.

6. Arizona - Matthew Wood (GM: Bill Armstrong, DAS: Darryl Plandowski, ADAS: Ryan Jankowski) - These are tricky picks to predict. Between three old school Canadians at the helm, the tendencies scream CHL, but it seems a little early for any of the CHLers here. A trade-down seems likely, but if they're going to pick then Wood is my best guess, as both head scouts are based out of Western Canada, and the last two times Armstrong went outside of CHL in the first were collegiate players Logan Cooley and Tage Thompson.

7. Philadelphia - Ryan Leonard (AGM: Brent Flahr, DHO: Tom Minton) - This was the easiest decision since the first couple picks. Tom Minton has a close connection to the NTDP, Flahr has a long history drafting from the program, and the Torts-coached Flyers say they're looking for compete above all else in a draft pick. Not to mention he's the pretty clear BPA here.

8. Washington - Matvei Michkov (AGM: Ross Mahoney, DAS: Steve Bowman, DHO: Kris Wagner) All of the top guys running the draft have been there many years and had a ton of success, particularly out of Russia.

9. Detroit - David Reinbacher (DAS: Kris Draper, DES: Hakan Andersson) - They've picked overwhelmingly out of Europe with early picks since Yzerman took over. Mostly Sweden, but Seider came out of another secondary hockey market in Germany.

10. St. Louis - Colby Barlow (DAS: Tony Feltrin) - In 1999 Tony Feltrin and the Isles had three picks in the top ten and took all three out of the OHL. The Blues have also been hard after these heavy forwards lately (Snuggerud, Bolduc, Neighbors).

11. Vancouver - Tom Willander (GM: Patrik Allvin, DAS: Todd Harvey) - I have a feeling Gradin is going to be Allvin's number one guy. Looking like he hit it out of the park with another Swedish defenseman in Pettersson last year. Usually when a player skyrockets up Bob McKenzie's final ranking, they end up going even earlier on draft day.

12. Arizona - Nate Danielson - Again, the smart money is on a big forward out of Western Canada here.

13. Buffalo - Zach Benson (DAS Jerry Forton) - They have a pretty heavy core in place and went all skill with three firsts last year, including Benson's linemate Savoie at 9th overall.

14. Pittsburgh - Oliver Moore (DAS: Nick Pryor) - I mentioned before the Minnesota connection with their new head scout. Pretty good argument that Moore is BPA here, although Dubas doesn't have much of a track record drafting NTDP.

15. Nashville - Dimitri Simashev (AGM: Jeff Kealty) - Trotz said they wanna swing for the fences, well here you go.

16. Calgary - Gabe Perreault (DAS: Tod Button) - Arguably their two best picks under Button have been Adam Fox straight out of NTDP, and Matthew Tkachuk a year removed from it.

And here's the back half. Didn't put nearly as much time or effort as the first 16, largely because it was a lot of teams picking again so the research was already done.

 

17. Detroit - Axel Sandin-Pellikka

18. Winnipeg - Eduard Sale (DAS: Mark Hillier) - They don't mind taking flawed players with upside later in the first round.

19. Chicago - Brayden Yager

20. Seattle - Samuel Honzek (DAS: Robert Kron) - A strong European scouting staff but so far they've played it safe, picking mostly from North America. I'm sure covid didn't help. A European via CHL would be a great way to dip their toe in the water.

21. Minnesota - Daniil But (DAS: Judd Brackett)

22. Philadelphia - Gavin Brindley - Flahr drafts out of USHL and NTDP as much as anyone. I thought we were out of NTDPers for the first round but then I remembered Brindley. Seems like a Daniel Briere pick.

23. Rangers - Quentin Musty (DAS: John Lilley)

24. Nashville - Otto Stenberg

25. St. Louis - Calum Ritchie

26. San Jose - Mikhail Gulyayev

27. Colorado - Theo Lindstein (DAS: Wade Klippenstein, DHO: Scott Harris)

28. Toronto - Riley Heidt (DAS: Wes Clark, DPP: Dave Morrison)

29. St. Louis - Bradley Nadeau

30. Carolina - Andrew Cristall (AGM: Darren Yorke)

31. Colorado - Ethan Gauthier

32. Vegas - Oliver Bonk (DPP: Vaughn Karpan, ADPP: Bob Lowes, DAS: Scott Luce)

[Pure961089]

After hearing Allvin I'm pretty sure they're picking the bpa with the most upside at 11.  So who do you thInk has the most upside?  If it's just purely upside and we're not going for immediate help then the long term projects worth putting time in for imo would be Simashev, Wood, and Willander.  Honzek, maybe Benson.  Who has the most raw tools and skillset?  

[HighOnHockey]

33 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

What about when Dvorsky put team Slovakia on his back in the U18's to get to the knockout stage, driving the majority of the play? 

Or Hlinkas his under-age year? When he led his team in scoring that included Mesar and Slafkovsky? Or when he had the best p/g ever by a U18 in J20 this year (2.1), on a team with only one other player over a p/g?

[-Vintage Canuck-]

 

[MikeyD]

45 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

What about when Dvorsky put team Slovakia on his back in the U18's to get to the knockout stage, driving the majority of the play? 

I didn't think he drove the play that much. I thought he played well and was deserved of pushing up my rankings with how well he did but I also think he was the beneficiary of plays coming to him. I liked his tenacity to get the puck back but I really just didn't see in the 4 games I watched him go out and be the guy for zone entries, setting up his teammates endlessly, etc .

 

If you look at all of his points, a third of them were well earned and then the rest were just right place right time scenarios (to his credit, he had good finish). I didn't think he controlled the puck enough and showed enough for me to be impressed enough with him. Too many junior level plays (which is why he did poorly against men) for my liking.

 

But I could be wrong! He could develop really well. The kid has the tools. I just don't see him controlling the game enough to be a game breaking player. He's a complementary piece for me. I would prefer to avoid that at 11. At the U18's if I had only seen that and no other footage I'd probably rank him around Nate Danielson level, however having seen his play with men and how ineffective he can be I really want to avoid him.

 

But as stated, he has the tools but the play driving, thinking of the game and his very average skating will require a lot of development and an absolute bullseye for him to ever become a top line guy that doesn't need insulation.

 

I called it when we traded for Eriksson that his point production was a result of his linemates and I see too many comparisons (albeit he does things better than Eriksson such as passing and his motor is better) for me to be comfortable with him as a prospect. It's a wild assumption, based on everybody having him in the top 10 but I'm sticking to my guns on this one.

 

For context: 

First point: lucky break to get the puck back in this situation, 2nd point (goal) I think he opens up well to receive a pass here but ultimately gets lucky off a bounce off a wall and has a wide open net to knock the puck into, 3rd point is an assist that's a good smart pass but won't consistently work at the NHL level as this play is typically cut off but kudos to taking advantage of what's available and recognizing two guys didn't have sticks tied up as options to force to, next point is a secondary assist that his teammate did an extremely good job of handling and making a nice play, next play is a good goal where he opens up but then relies on his teammates to open up the lane for him to get a shot off to score, next goal shows his great ability to get his shot off in the slot, next goal is again another slot pass that comes to him that he scores, next goal the guy that's marking him just gives up and turns his controller off and skates behind the net for some reason, next point is empty net primary assist on a breakout pass, this next goal is absolutely beautiful and what I want to see more of where he displays amazing patience and creates his own goal as opposed to relying on his teammates to get him the puck in the slot (this is controlling the game in my opinion), next point is a primary assist that a defender utilizes a good screen on (nothing special), and then finally a really nice primary assist that is worthy of praise.

 

So about a third of the points I see as non-routine plays that would require a good prospect to complete. The other 2/3rds any prospect in the first 5 rounds could have earned given the spot. The guy is good in the slot, but he made 2-3 remarkable plays and I don't think that constitutes as to the praise he's getting for the U18's this year, especially considering how bad the defense and goaltending is at these tournaments. 

 

The slot is the hardest area of the ice to get to in the NHL and hardest to get open for. He generates nearly all his offense from there. He's not a guy that does a lot of cutting, east/west plays that show consistent creativity, he's not displaying an elite level skillet with his hands, he's just a guy really effective at scoring from the slot and that launches him wayyyyy down my board when it comes to NHL projection. He's not dynamic enough as a goal scorer in my opinion. He's not a good enough playmaker because he's so extremely inconsistent with his vision. I think his defense is his best attribute, but I also think against men his anticipation skills really show themselves. I absolutely love his compete for loose pucks though. I don't think he takes the right angles all of the time but that can be coached. Tenacity can't be coached 95% of the time.

 

I may be over critiquing but I feel solid enough in my assessment that I feel I have a real solid understanding as to why he can't put up points against men. My eye test passed the analytics test and those aligned. Like I said, has the tools but is missing too many things such as being dynamic, being creative, having the play driving, and just inconsistencies in other areas for me to be sold on him as a top 10 guy like everybody else has him. I literally think people are insane for projecting him that high. 

 

Edit for further context: here is Louie Eriksson's highlight package of every goal from the season we picked him up after. Looks eerily similar right?

 

https://youtu.be/6OH9lxYFPpA

Edited June 28, 2023 by MikeyD

[Nucker 67]

I don't think Michkov drops, not now. Same with Simashev. I think all of the scouts will love these guys and they'll be scoped up fast.

 

My hope is that Benson slips through the cracks and makes it to #11. Or, if Dvorsky is there, take him. 

 

Canucks need D for sure, and I think they end up with Willander. Doesn't excite me too much, but I guess he'll be pretty good. Hope anyway.

 

I'm starting to think Wood may have a lot of upside yet. He's got size, for sure, but he's also a really smart player. A winger now, but he may be playing C? I think Wood could probably step into the lineup next year (2024/25 season) Barlow could be another really smart pick that makes the jump sooner rather than later. 

 

 

Edited June 28, 2023 by NUCKER67

[Odd.]

Benson, Simashev, Wood in that order for me, whoever is available.

[MikeyD]

6 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

I don't think Michkov drops, not now. Same with Simashev. I think all of the scouts will love these guys and they'll be scoped up fast.

 

My hope is that Benson slips through the cracks and makes it to #11. Or, if Dvorsky is there, take him. 

 

Canucks need D for sure, and I think they end up with Willander. Doesn't excite me too much, but I guess he'll be pretty good. Hope anyway.

 

I'm starting to think Wood may have a lot of upside yet. He's got size, for sure, but he's also a really smart player. A winger now, but he may be playing C? I think Wood could probably step into the lineup next year (2024/25 season) Barlow could be another really smart pick that makes the jump sooner rather than later. 

 

 

Not a chance Wood plays center. He won't be able to keep up with transitions. Teams will want to use his size to protect along the walls as a winger. 

[BCNate]

My Wish list

Unlikely, but if they drop:

Dvorsky

Benson

 

More likely options in order:

Simashev

Willander

Moore

Danielson

 

 

If we walk away with any of these guys, I'd be pumped.

[spook007]

25 minutes ago, HighOnHockey said:

And here's the back half. Didn't put nearly as much time or effort as the first 16, largely because it was a lot of teams picking again so the research was already done.

 

17. Detroit - Axel Sandin-Pellikka

18. Winnipeg - Eduard Sale (DAS: Mark Hillier) - They don't mind taking flawed players with upside later in the first round.

19. Chicago - Brayden Yager

20. Seattle - Samuel Honzek (DAS: Robert Kron) - A strong European scouting staff but so far they've played it safe, picking mostly from North America. I'm sure covid didn't help. A European via CHL would be a great way to dip their toe in the water.

21. Minnesota - Daniil But (DAS: Judd Brackett)

22. Philadelphia - Gavin Brindley - Flahr drafts out of USHL and NTDP as much as anyone. I thought we were out of NTDPers for the first round but then I remembered Brindley. Seems like a Daniel Briere pick.

23. Rangers - Quentin Musty (DAS: John Lilley)

24. Nashville - Otto Stenberg

25. St. Louis - Calum Ritchie

26. San Jose - Mikhail Gulyayev

27. Colorado - Theo Lindstein (DAS: Wade Klippenstein, DHO: Scott Harris)

28. Toronto - Riley Heidt (DAS: Wes Clark, DPP: Dave Morrison)

29. St. Louis - Bradley Nadeau

30. Carolina - Andrew Cristall (AGM: Darren Yorke)

31. Colorado - Ethan Gauthier

32. Vegas - Oliver Bonk (DPP: Vaughn Karpan, ADPP: Bob Lowes, DAS: Scott Luce)

Incredible how many decent players there are in the bottom half of the first round. 
talk about stacked. 

[Kobayashi Maru]

2 minutes ago, BCNate said:

My Wish list

Unlikely, but if they drop:

Dvorsky

Benson

 

More likely options in order:

Simashev

Willander

Moore

Danielson

 

 

If we walk away with any of these guys, I'd be pumped.

Well you saved me having to type it.  This is exactly it for me too.  Best upside C/D available with Benson being the only W wildcard if he falls that low.

[Canuck You]

Hope we take Benson.

[MikeyD]

17 minutes ago, Pure961089 said:

After hearing Allvin I'm pretty sure they're picking the bpa with the most upside at 11.  So who do you thInk has the most upside?  If it's just purely upside and we're not going for immediate help then the long term projects worth putting time in for imo would be Simashev, Wood, and Willander.  Honzek, maybe Benson.  Who has the most raw tools and skillset?  

Most upside that has a chance to land with us: Benson, Moore and Simashev 

 

Projects that may end up being extremely high end: Wood (personally I think this is way too big of a gamble because his skating amongst the worst in the draft and people act as if this kid hasn't been 6'1"+ since he was 14-15, but undoubtedly has the tools), Moore (phenomenal skating and good playmaking but doesn't have the ability to process at the pace he skates offensively quite yet but has plenty of other intangibles that basically guarantee you a third liner), Sawchyn, Perron, Perrault, ASP, Yager

 

Raw tools and skill set: Benson, Moore, Musty, Sale, Leonard, Wood (minus skating), Smith, Sawchyn, Perron, Reinbacher, ASP, Yager, Willander

 

No particular order. Some players I left off because we have no chance at them. 

[DrJockitch]

Man, it is amazingly quiet around the Canucks last few days. 
Not a sniff of anything happening. 
The package that Simashev represents. Big amazing 4 way mobility and a nasty streak. Even if he handles the puck like a hand grenade that is a useful piece. 
If you are drafting a winger this high in this draft I just don’t think there is a guy other than Michkov that is worth taking the risk. Especially given the needs of the NHL team and the prospect pool. 

[Odd.]

1 minute ago, MikeyD said:

Most upside that has a chance to land with us: Benson, Moore and Simashev 

 

Projects that may end up being extremely high end: Wood (personally I think this is way too big of a gamble because his skating amongst the worst in the draft and people act as if this kid hasn't been 6'1"+ since he was 14-15, but undoubtedly has the tools), Moore (phenomenal skating and good playmaking but doesn't have the ability to process at the pace he skates offensively quite yet but has plenty of other intangibles that basically guarantee you a third liner), Sawchyn, Perron, Perrault, ASP, Yager

 

Raw tools and skill set: Benson, Moore, Musty, Sale, Leonard, Wood (minus skating), Smith, Sawchyn, Perron, Reinbacher, ASP, Yager, Willander

 

No particular order. Some players I left off because we have no chance at them. 

Wood grew 9 inches in the last 2.5 years.

[MikeyD]

6 minutes ago, Odd. said:

Wood grew 9 inches in the last 2.5 years.

According to elite prospects (might have been black book) podcast this is a myth and in his draft year he was 6'1". I'll see if I can find it. 

 

Edit: Found it: 

 Go to 53:10

Edited June 28, 2023 by MikeyD

[Baratheon]

4 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

Man, it is amazingly quiet around the Canucks last few days. 
Not a sniff of anything happening. 
The package that Simashev represents. Big amazing 4 way mobility and a nasty streak. Even if he handles the puck like a hand grenade that is a useful piece. 
If you are drafting a winger this high in this draft I just don’t think there is a guy other than Michkov that is worth taking the risk. Especially given the needs of the NHL team and the prospect pool. 

JR seems like he meant business when he said that he was going to talk less.  PA is like the Wayne Gretzky of answering questions without saying anything.  I'm never really surprised when Canucks news is quiet.  They don't strike me as "sit on their hands" type on people.  I'm sure things are happening behind the scenes.

[Fred65]

One thing that is certain we will be told ( who ever we select ) we had him rate higher, we're surprised he was still there at 11th spot. 

[DrJockitch]

Just now, Baratheon said:

JR seems like he meant business when he said that he was going to talk less.  PA is like the Wayne Gretzky of answering questions without saying anything.  I'm never really surprised when Canucks news is quiet.  They don't strike me as "sit on their hands" type on people.  I'm sure things are happening behind the scenes.

They really must have tightened up the leaks after the Dorrie stuff.

[Nave]

I'm hoping we take a center at 11, or trade down and get a defenseman + a 2nd rounder.

My favourite guys are probably:
Dvorsky
Leonard
Wood 
Moore

Danielson
Simashev

ASP
Willander