2023 NHL Entry Draft

[R3aL]

4 hours ago, HighOnHockey said:

I certainly don't mean to take sides with that other fellow, but there was a thread made the other day with what I thought was one of the better thought out Canucks trade proposals I've seen in a while. After hiring Babcock and acquiring Provorov (and last summer signing Gaudreau), Columbus has made it clear they're looking to take the next step in their rebuild. @Coconuts proposed Columbus sends 3rd overall to Vancouver in exchange for J.T. Miller and 11th overall. Columbus already has clear top line wingers but just lacks a number one C. Sure they could add Fantilli or Carlsson and have a 1C within 2-3 years, but Gaudreau is already gonna be 30 this summer. Miller is an Ohio native, and we know how important local talent is in Columbus to help grow the hockey culture in the area. This way they get their 1C now and still come away with a really good prospect at 11. Perhaps Kekelainen thinks Michkov will fall and they can still land him at 11.

 

As you said, they would want to get an immediate 2C out of any such deal. Well, Fantilli/Carlsson would be pretty darn close.

Would absolutely love that. If that happened I would be immensly happy but that seems too good to be true jarmo can’t be that desperate..

 

there’s no sides to take all i was saying is he won’t likely be traded unless it’s a pretty creative trade with multiple teams involved. 
 

Columbus and Pits seem like the only places that would really want him and I just don’t see it being a single team trade. The one you proposed sounds to good to be true to me but sign me up! 

Edited June 8, 2023 by R3aL

[Gawdzukes]

1 hour ago, Bure_Pavel said:

Tyson Barrie does have 490 points in 768 NHL games, just saying. He was also the main piece in the Kadri trade that helped Colorado bring home the Stanley Cup. ASP is a lot further ahead in his development than Barrie was in his draft year. 

Wouldn't be horrible I guess. He's kind of a nightmare in his own end though and doesn't match up in a big game scenario well. Imo anyway. I just have concerns his size may hold him back. I don't know if he's at the combine but I'd like to see his actual height and weight. He looks about 5'9 175.

[HKSR]

I'm just gonna place my prediction as a mock draft here to come back to in a few weeks after the draft is done:

 

1. CHI - Bedard

2. ANA - Carlsson (yup, a surprise here as a lot of people have Fantilli going first)

3. CLB - Fantilli

4. SJS - Smith

5. MTL - Dvorsky (what?!  Yup, I think they build around their Slovak pair of Dvorsky and Slafkovsky)

6. ARZ - Michkov (they can afford to wait for this guy)

7. PHI - Wood (just seems like a PHI type player)

8. WAS - Reinbacher (will pair nicely with Sandin)

9. DET - ASP (their new Hronek)

10. STL - Moore

11. VAN - Leonard

[J.I.A.H.N]

6 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I'm just gonna place my prediction as a mock draft here to come back to in a few weeks after the draft is done:

 

1. CHI - Bedard

2. ANA - Carlsson (yup, a surprise here as a lot of people have Fantilli going first)

3. CLB - Fantilli

4. SJS - Smith

5. MTL - Dvorsky (what?!  Yup, I think they build around their Slovak pair of Dvorsky and Slafkovsky)

6. ARZ - Michkov (they can afford to wait for this guy)

7. PHI - Wood (just seems like a PHI type player)

8. WAS - Reinbacher (will pair nicely with Sandin)

9. DET - ASP (their new Hronek)

10. STL - Moore

11. VAN - Leonard

Interesting take......love it.....don't agree..........but hey...........as good as anyone elses!

[Bure_Pavel]

12 minutes ago, Gawdzukes said:

Wouldn't be horrible I guess. He's kind of a nightmare in his own end though and doesn't match up in a big game scenario well. Imo anyway. I just have concerns his size may hold him back. I don't know if he's at the combine but I'd like to see his actual height and weight. He looks about 5'9 175.

Yeah, that will be a big factor. SHL site has him listed at a hair under 5'10", but I would assume he has grow a tad as he is most commonly listed at 5'11 180lbs.

[Sp3nny]

2 hours ago, HighOnHockey said:

Going back to @smithers joe 's earlier comment:

 

I've been watching Dvorsky and Sale lately and gushing about their hockey IQ, but then I started thinking "why is it always the pro players I tend to think of as the highest IQ players in their draft classes?" Same goes for Fantilli (not pro, but still much higher level than junior) or Carlsson, or in recent drafts Svechkov, Yurov, Clarke, Nemec, Kasper, etc. We could say "of course they are, that's why they're playing pro so early" and there is some truth to that, but there's also been some prospects in recent drafts who were playing pro and I wasn't as convinced about - Lysell, Edvinsson, Kemell, Halttunen for example.

 

But it occurred to me, it doesn't necessarily mean they're the highest IQ players in their draft, it just means they've proven it at a much higher level than others. Unfortunately, for North American kids pro hockey isn't really an option. The Canadians in particular are stuck paying in junior. We can see why so many like Fantilli, Wood, Celebrini, Hague are taking the Junior A/NCAA option to get a chance to play at a higher level sooner. It makes it hard trying to compare a Barlow or a Musty, Ritchie, Benson etc. against guys like Sale or Dvorsky, who've already proven they can do it at the next level. With the junior players we can really only see the hockey IQ they need up to this level of hockey, and from there we just have to try and extrapolate.

I do think there is something to be said about better leagues making players automatically look better. Being surrounded by pro players in mens leagues has a cascading effect on the team. Something as simple as positioning of your teammates can make a huge difference on individual players, where they are able to know that their line mate will make the correct play in certain situations, which in turn helps them make smart plays themselves. If you play hockey, you will know what’s it’s like playing beer league vs tournament style hockey. Nothing changes about your game, but the environment of better players both on and against your team changes the game completely.
 

Continuing that train of thought, something else has occurred to me recently, but in a different vein. How many of these young players who are clearly developing well and able to move up to a men’s league earlier than others actually harm or stunt their development in some way? Probably more so on the offensive side. Do we take that into consideration? I feel like the normal path we take is to assume that the player is doing it against men (or at a higher level) so that’s always a positive and better than doing it against your peers.

 

What has me thinking of this the last few days is my post a few pages back on a couple fwds. I mentioned that Dvorsky somewhat reminds me of Podkolzin from his draft yr, not rly in their play style, but more so as a prospect. Both very defensively aware fwds who got playing time with men in their draft yrs, and both have the size to make that possible without getting completely outmuscled. What was also similar, was they both had fairly modest point totals in the men’s league they played in, and yet against their peers, they had very strong WJC (and other) tournaments. Naturally, it can be easy to assume this means that they are better than their peers. How much, if any, damage does this do to their upside? I rarely hear anyone make this argument until after a player is drafted, where the point is made not to rush a player, but let them develop at their required pace.

 

And to be clear, this isn’t me picking on Dvorsky, I feel he will be a very good pick, and one I would be very happy for the Canucks to make. I have flip flopped on him a bit, where sometimes I think he looks fantastic, but others times more average. I get Kopitar vibes from him, and seeing his success against his peers more recently had me thinking bigger picture about if he wasn’t playing in Allsvenskan, what he would look like as a prospect? Just a random line of thought rly…

[Gawdzukes]

8 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

Yeah, that will be a big factor. SHL site has him listed at a hair under 5'10", but I would assume he has grow a tad as he is most commonly listed at 5'11 180lbs.

I've seen those listings too (sometimes they lie ) but I've also seen pictures of him beside other 5'9 and 5'10 players and looking shorter. You can never tell though camera angle and everything like that.

[Coconuts]

I'm bored so I'm going to stir the pot a bit 

 

There's been endless speculation as to what we do with our 1st but I'm curious as to who you all have pegged as prospects of interest in the third and fourth rounds

 

We have two thirds, ours and Toronto's, and three fourths between ours, Detroit's, and New York's 

 

I'm not gonna pretend I'm savvy as to who may be interesting in that range which is part of why I'm asking 

Edited June 8, 2023 by Coconuts

[Gawdzukes]

Some RD's I'd be happy with

 

58. Matthew Mania (RHD) 

6' 1"

180

Matthew Mania shows of very fluid movement in a very bulky frame. He has the size to play gritty, physical hockey but the agility and edgework to stay mobile. I love Mania’s puck-handling abilities and think there’s room for him to grow into a very solid, transition-specialist defenseman who uses his size to cover for his lapses defensively.

 

83. Gavin McCarthy (RHD)

 

6' 2"

185

McCarthy’s style lends itself heavily to calm, defensive play. He’s phenomenal at defending the rush and is growing increasingly comfortable at playing physical in his own end. And while it didn’t come to fruition this year, it feels like McCarthy’s smooth skating and confidence with the puck could eventually lead to solid scoring.

 

88. Beau Akey (RHD)

 

6' 0"

173

While he is a tremendous puck-mover, Beau Akey’s strength lies in pushing play through his forwards. He blends well and knows when to jump into play to fill holes in offensive attacks. But with a reserved style, it does not feel like Akey will have much offensive bite. He’ll instead be a transition-specialist that could healthily supplement a pro team’s bottom-two pairs.

 

99. Niko Minkkinen (RHD)

6' 4" 196

Niko Minkkinen has admirable skating for his size and involves himself in neutral zone plays well – whether that be defending the rush or jumping up into it. His passing is clean and he consistently makes the plays he wants to make. But poor puck-handling and a tendency to get lost in fast-moving setups hold him back from being too impactful.

Edited June 9, 2023 by Gawdzukes

[ilduce39]

2 hours ago, HKSR said:

I'm just gonna place my prediction as a mock draft here to come back to in a few weeks after the draft is done:

 

1. CHI - Bedard

2. ANA - Carlsson (yup, a surprise here as a lot of people have Fantilli going first)

3. CLB - Fantilli

4. SJS - Smith

5. MTL - Dvorsky (what?!  Yup, I think they build around their Slovak pair of Dvorsky and Slafkovsky)

6. ARZ - Michkov (they can afford to wait for this guy)

7. PHI - Wood (just seems like a PHI type player)

8. WAS - Reinbacher (will pair nicely with Sandin)

9. DET - ASP (their new Hronek)

10. STL - Moore

11. VAN - Leonard

The Athletic just had a similar mock draft but they had us passing on Leonard to take Wallinder.  Would be very tough to pass on Leonard even if they see him as a winger.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, HKSR said:

I'm just gonna place my prediction as a mock draft here to come back to in a few weeks after the draft is done:

 

1. CHI - Bedard

2. ANA - Carlsson (yup, a surprise here as a lot of people have Fantilli going first)

3. CLB - Fantilli

4. SJS - Smith

5. MTL - Dvorsky (what?!  Yup, I think they build around their Slovak pair of Dvorsky and Slafkovsky)

6. ARZ - Michkov (they can afford to wait for this guy)

7. PHI - Wood (just seems like a PHI type player)

8. WAS - Reinbacher (will pair nicely with Sandin)

9. DET - ASP (their new Hronek)

10. STL - Moore

11. VAN - Leonard

I like your mock draft...  

 

Montreal certainly might like Dvorsky, and if not then I see them going with Reinbacher.  I watched their behind the scenes videos from the draft in 2022 and they were in love with the fact that Slafkovsky became a man at such a young age by moving to a new country and learning how to live on his own/become a professional.  You see a lot of that in Dvorsky / Reinbacher.  

 

Danny Briere is the new GM and something is making me wonder if he wouldn't go for a guy like Zach Benson.  They have another 1st round pick, and then 8 more picks later for his scouts to draft Philly type guys.  Let's not forget that Benson has been trending as a 5th or 6th best player in this draft for much of the year.  

 

I also believe that Michkov and Reinbacher could switch places...  either way, I think that your top 10 are really safe bets with Benson and Simashev the only two possibilities that I'd put money on to sneak in.  

 

This is actually the worst case scenario for Canucks actually...  big two d-men are gone, all the highly rated centers are gone, and we're left to pick the BPA (Benson, Leonard, or Sale) which are wingers unless we move down one tier into the next best center/d-man available.  

[Nucker 67]

13 minutes ago, ilduce39 said:

The Athletic just had a similar mock draft but they had us passing on Leonard to take Wallinder.  Would be very tough to pass on Leonard even if they see him as a winger.

That would boggle my mind. I haven't seen Willander high on anyone's list, other than Button's. 

[Herberts Vasiljevs]

I have a Sportsnet NOW subscription. Will I be able to watch the draft using it? 

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

That would boggle my mind. I haven't seen Willander high on anyone's list, other than Button's. 

I think the last U18 tournament was big for him...  he had a very strong showing and we might be seeing some recency-bias at play here. 

[Gawdzukes]

20 minutes ago, Herberts Vasiljevs said:

I have a Sportsnet NOW subscription. Will I be able to watch the draft using it? 

 Viewers located in Canada can watch the draft's first round on Sportsnet, 

 

Should be good. I watch it on Sportsnet every year. Day 2 as well.

Edited June 9, 2023 by Gawdzukes

[TopChed]

3 hours ago, Gawdzukes said:

 Viewers located in Canada can watch the draft's first round on Sportsnet, 

 

Should be good. I watch it on Sportsnet every year. Day 2 as well.

It's going to be hilarious when they trade the pick for Lafrenier without moving any of our other wingers out. 

Edited June 9, 2023 by TopChed

[HighOnHockey]

4 hours ago, Sp3nny said:

I do think there is something to be said about better leagues making players automatically look better. Being surrounded by pro players in mens leagues has a cascading effect on the team. Something as simple as positioning of your teammates can make a huge difference on individual players, where they are able to know that their line mate will make the correct play in certain situations, which in turn helps them make smart plays themselves. If you play hockey, you will know what’s it’s like playing beer league vs tournament style hockey. Nothing changes about your game, but the environment of better players both on and against your team changes the game completely.
 

Continuing that train of thought, something else has occurred to me recently, but in a different vein. How many of these young players who are clearly developing well and able to move up to a men’s league earlier than others actually harm or stunt their development in some way? Probably more so on the offensive side. Do we take that into consideration? I feel like the normal path we take is to assume that the player is doing it against men (or at a higher level) so that’s always a positive and better than doing it against your peers.

 

What has me thinking of this the last few days is my post a few pages back on a couple fwds. I mentioned that Dvorsky somewhat reminds me of Podkolzin from his draft yr, not rly in their play style, but more so as a prospect. Both very defensively aware fwds who got playing time with men in their draft yrs, and both have the size to make that possible without getting completely outmuscled. What was also similar, was they both had fairly modest point totals in the men’s league they played in, and yet against their peers, they had very strong WJC (and other) tournaments. Naturally, it can be easy to assume this means that they are better than their peers. How much, if any, damage does this do to their upside? I rarely hear anyone make this argument until after a player is drafted, where the point is made not to rush a player, but let them develop at their required pace.

 

And to be clear, this isn’t me picking on Dvorsky, I feel he will be a very good pick, and one I would be very happy for the Canucks to make. I have flip flopped on him a bit, where sometimes I think he looks fantastic, but others times more average. I get Kopitar vibes from him, and seeing his success against his peers more recently had me thinking bigger picture about if he wasn’t playing in Allsvenskan, what he would look like as a prospect? Just a random line of thought rly…

Yeah all interesting questions. I've been playing around with the equivalency chart lately. https://towardsdatascience.com/nhl-equivalency-and-prospect-projection-models-building-the-nhl-equivalency-model-part-2-6f275a45e22

 

Allsvenskan - 0.351

VHL - 0.328

 

Almost identical quality leagues, Podkolzin played 12:18 per game his draft year. Dvorsky played 14:50.

 

The key difference, like you mentioned, is the production in the junior leagues. Dvorsky's 2.1 p/g is the highest ever (min 10 GP) total in that league by a U18. You don't put up numbers like that just because you're big and strong. Even converting to MHL ([0.091/0.143]x[21/10]) numbers would give him 13 points in 10 games to Podkolzin's 8 in 12. And of course what he did at U18s was on another level, even if the numbers might be a little skewed due to the lower quality of competition this year; Dvorsky did everything for that team. He took the second most faceoffs in the tournament and won 57.14%, and in Allsvenskan he was a pretty respectable 48.38%. He's a smart, heavy, two-way, true center with some skill. I know some people question the upside, and like you said he doesn't have that one skill that really stands out, but to me he's just the complete package, everything you could ask for in a center in your top six, especially come playoffs. He's still in the mix for my top five, although I'm undecided between him and Smith.

 

As for playing pro too early hurting a player's development, it definitely can happen. I think regarding the quality of prospects we're talking about here (Dvorsky, Sale) it shouldn't be a concern; they're pretty clearly ready, and are too good for their junior leagues - Sale scored over 2 p/g at 16. Even if he went to Sweden it wouldn't be that much better. He'd need to come to North America to play junior hockey at a suitable level. I see what you're saying about maybe not getting the same offensive opportunities and such, but on the other side of it, junior-style offense won't work in the NHL, and the sooner you can start to learn how to create offence within the tighter and stricter strictures of pro hockey, I think that is probably a good thing.  And teams are generally pretty good about playing players at a level suitable to them - their play dictates it. Take Sandin-Pellikka or Otto Senberg this year, they played some games in SHL but just weren't really ready so they spent most of the year in junior.

[R3aL]

1 hour ago, HighOnHockey said:

Yeah all interesting questions. I've been playing around with the equivalency chart lately. https://towardsdatascience.com/nhl-equivalency-and-prospect-projection-models-building-the-nhl-equivalency-model-part-2-6f275a45e22

 

Allsvenskan - 0.351

VHL - 0.328

 

Almost identical quality leagues, Podkolzin played 12:18 per game his draft year. Dvorsky played 14:50.

 

The key difference, like you mentioned, is the production in the junior leagues. Dvorsky's 2.1 p/g is the highest ever (min 10 GP) total in that league by a U18. You don't put up numbers like that just because you're big and strong. Even converting to MHL ([0.091/0.143]x[21/10]) numbers would give him 13 points in 10 games to Podkolzin's 8 in 12. And of course what he did at U18s was on another level, even if the numbers might be a little skewed due to the lower quality of competition this year; Dvorsky did everything for that team. He took the second most faceoffs in the tournament and won 57.14%, and in Allsvenskan he was a pretty respectable 48.38%. He's a smart, heavy, two-way, true center with some skill. I know some people question the upside, and like you said he doesn't have that one skill that really stands out, but to me he's just the complete package, everything you could ask for in a center in your top six, especially come playoffs. He's still in the mix for my top five, although I'm undecided between him and Smith.

 

As for playing pro too early hurting a player's development, it definitely can happen. I think regarding the quality of prospects we're talking about here (Dvorsky, Sale) it shouldn't be a concern; they're pretty clearly ready, and are too good for their junior leagues - Sale scored over 2 p/g at 16. Even if he went to Sweden it wouldn't be that much better. He'd need to come to North America to play junior hockey at a suitable level. I see what you're saying about maybe not getting the same offensive opportunities and such, but on the other side of it, junior-style offense won't work in the NHL, and the sooner you can start to learn how to create offence within the tighter and stricter strictures of pro hockey, I think that is probably a good thing.  And teams are generally pretty good about playing players at a level suitable to them - their play dictates it. Take Sandin-Pellikka or Otto Senberg this year, they played some games in SHL but just weren't really ready so they spent most of the year in junior.

As for ASP and Stenberg in the SHL I watched a little bit of them.

 

i thought ASP had more difficulty with the adjustment then Otto did. 
 

but I think they both benefited greatly from their SHL time.

 

i thought Otto actually played really well, and I wasn’t sure if I was just being too high on him. Kind of like Hoglander without production. But it was more than that I thought he was playing a complete game, learning and improving. And the U18 performance really solidified that for me, that he did learn a lot in the SHL and what I was seeing was progress even though the points weren’t there.

 

i really like Otto. And I think his style of play is going to translate very well to the NHL.

[R3aL]

1 hour ago, HighOnHockey said:

Yeah all interesting questions. I've been playing around with the equivalency chart lately. https://towardsdatascience.com/nhl-equivalency-and-prospect-projection-models-building-the-nhl-equivalency-model-part-2-6f275a45e22

 

Allsvenskan - 0.351

VHL - 0.328

 

Almost identical quality leagues, Podkolzin played 12:18 per game his draft year. Dvorsky played 14:50.

 

The key difference, like you mentioned, is the production in the junior leagues. Dvorsky's 2.1 p/g is the highest ever (min 10 GP) total in that league by a U18. You don't put up numbers like that just because you're big and strong. Even converting to MHL ([0.091/0.143]x[21/10]) numbers would give him 13 points in 10 games to Podkolzin's 8 in 12. And of course what he did at U18s was on another level, even if the numbers might be a little skewed due to the lower quality of competition this year; Dvorsky did everything for that team. He took the second most faceoffs in the tournament and won 57.14%, and in Allsvenskan he was a pretty respectable 48.38%. He's a smart, heavy, two-way, true center with some skill. I know some people question the upside, and like you said he doesn't have that one skill that really stands out, but to me he's just the complete package, everything you could ask for in a center in your top six, especially come playoffs. He's still in the mix for my top five, although I'm undecided between him and Smith.

 

As for playing pro too early hurting a player's development, it definitely can happen. I think regarding the quality of prospects we're talking about here (Dvorsky, Sale) it shouldn't be a concern; they're pretty clearly ready, and are too good for their junior leagues - Sale scored over 2 p/g at 16. Even if he went to Sweden it wouldn't be that much better. He'd need to come to North America to play junior hockey at a suitable level. I see what you're saying about maybe not getting the same offensive opportunities and such, but on the other side of it, junior-style offense won't work in the NHL, and the sooner you can start to learn how to create offence within the tighter and stricter strictures of pro hockey, I think that is probably a good thing.  And teams are generally pretty good about playing players at a level suitable to them - their play dictates it. Take Sandin-Pellikka or Otto Senberg this year, they played some games in SHL but just weren't really ready so they spent most of the year in junior.

Also love the look into Dvorskys numbers like that.

 

i like him a lot too. I can’t help but think Montreal might draft him. I have Will Smith before him. He has the elite offensive tools that are too great for me to not prioritize.

 

and for Dvorsky how would you rank his shot?  I think it’s an elite trait of his but he needs to shoot more and I thought when he played with men he kind of stopped shooting.

[Sp3nny]

12 minutes ago, R3aL said:

Also love the look into Dvorskys numbers like that.

 

i like him a lot too. I can’t help but think Montreal might draft him. I have Will Smith before him. He has the elite offensive tools that are too great for me to not prioritize.

 

and for Dvorsky how would you rank his shot?  I think it’s an elite trait of his but he needs to shoot more and I thought when he played with men he kind of stopped shooting.

I think his shot is definitely his best offensive weapon. Hard and accurate, not a ton of load time, but I personally don’t quite have it in the elite category with someone like Barlow for instance.