ShawnAntoski Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 39 minutes ago, Bounce000 said: Can we please hire the Vancouver Giants GM to the staff? Look at the haul they just got for their best player: 3 first round picks 5th round pick 2 roster players 2 prospects Does Francesco qualify ? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted January 9, 2023 Author Share Posted January 9, 2023 21 hours ago, iceman64 said: We beat some of the best teams in the league last year with a lesser roster, and have done it a few times this season BUT selling everyone? That's just stupid.. pull off a cpl of roster upgrades, sign some character players with snarl SIZE speed and decent skill, keep drafting D first and foremost. And NOT expect miracles in the process... LIKE NOW! The way this team was locked in contractually wise from 2012 onward and saddled with Luongo's recapture was doom until they all dropped off one by one... I'm amazed that we're not dead last with no hope of parole, let alone anywhere near trying to get in the post season. So your plan is what exactly? Magically make the roster way better by adding upgrades and all the other things you mention without having any assets or cap space? Slowly build the D through the draft like you said (that takes 3-8 years to draft and mature enough players IF you are lucky enough to hit on picks for the next 2-3 years). So keep not making the playoffs until all our good club controlled guys make it to UFA and sign elsewhere for nothing? You seem to be the one expecting miracles. Your “plan” appears to be continue with the status quo of being a bad team and every year try to convince the useful pending UFAs to sign here without overpaying them to stay on a losing team. At the same time, target the exact type of players everyone else wants (big, mean, fast, and skilled) and try to convince them to come to a losing team. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post DSVII Posted January 9, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted January 9, 2023 23 hours ago, iceman64 said: We beat some of the best teams in the league last year with a lesser roster, and have done it a few times this season BUT selling everyone? That's just stupid.. pull off a cpl of roster upgrades, sign some character players with snarl SIZE speed and decent skill, keep drafting D first and foremost. And NOT expect miracles in the process... LIKE NOW! The way this team was locked in contractually wise from 2012 onward and saddled with Luongo's recapture was doom until they all dropped off one by one... I'm amazed that we're not dead last with no hope of parole, let alone anywhere near trying to get in the post season. No one is expecting miracles, we know this is a long process to rebuild, and the sooner we start the sooner it ends. Rather than come to that realization 3 years later and THEN starting that 5 year process. We've fallen for the trap of doing long term projections based on a limited sample size too many times, first it was the 2020 Bubble where we declared this was the real team, then the Boudreau Bump, and now we're reduced to looking at 2-3 game sample sizes where we beat teams that most likely didn't take us seriously (remember how the 2011 nucks never gave a crap when they played arizona or buffalo and lost, we are that team now.) This team has shown us multiple years its true colors, it's time to believe the results for what they are. This isn't working. 2 1 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post captainhorvat Posted January 9, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted January 9, 2023 Good chance we lose the next 7 games and if we lose our remaining 3 games vs Chicago we still have a chance for Bedard… 1 4 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Provost Posted January 9, 2023 Author Popular Post Share Posted January 9, 2023 18 minutes ago, captainhorvat said: Good chance we lose the next 7 games and if we lose our remaining 3 games vs Chicago we still have a chance for Bedard… Really it is just hoping for the best pick possible. The top three guys in the draft would have all been #1 in the last couple drafts…. So there are some pretty good consolation prizes. We have a legit shot at being a bottom 5 team if we sell off some players. If we stay status quo, we have a legit shot at getting up to 20th spot in the league and miss out on even a top ten pick again. 3 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RolexSub Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 I am happy when we win but now I am not upset when we lose!!! Go Bedard sweepstake!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU SERIOUS Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 VAN 2.1% ..................................................chance - after the Jets Loss. Woo Hoo! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iinatcc Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1 hour ago, RU SERIOUS said: VAN 2.1% ..................................................chance - after the Jets Loss. Woo Hoo! Did someone say Jet Woo ? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman64 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 19 hours ago, DSVII said: No one is expecting miracles, we know this is a long process to rebuild, and the sooner we start the sooner it ends. Rather than come to that realization 3 years later and THEN starting that 5 year process. We've fallen for the trap of doing long term projections based on a limited sample size too many times, first it was the 2020 Bubble where we declared this was the real team, then the Boudreau Bump, and now we're reduced to looking at 2-3 game sample sizes where we beat teams that most likely didn't take us seriously (remember how the 2011 nucks never gave a crap when they played arizona or buffalo and lost, we are that team now.) This team has shown us multiple years its true colors, it's time to believe the results for what they are. This isn't working. Of course it's not working, we need more Garland's but 6'2 210, who even when not scoring makes opposing players pay for touching the puck and good speed/work ethic, not only are we the 4th smallest team in the league the toughest guy we have is schenner and he, on his own, obviously isn't enough. It doesn't matter if we make the playoffs or not, we don't have the depth to go far anyway, toughen up and add depth and perhaps in the next 2 years we might be able to go further but coming out of such a long stretch with so many locked in player with NTC's is over and we can finally do some tweaking via trade.. (As long as they keep my guy Kuz) lol And Demko/Hughes.. everyone else can be available. I fully expect JR to put something together but we need to be a tough fast skilled team WITH depth.. nothing else will ever get us anything and we off all fans should know this better than anyone... Will we ever get the 2011 tough, hard hitting, fast forechecking team BUT this time with depth.. without it?! Well you know... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman64 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 (edited) On 1/8/2023 at 7:12 PM, Provost said: So your plan is what exactly? Magically make the roster way better by adding upgrades and all the other things you mention without having any assets or cap space? Slowly build the D through the draft like you said (that takes 3-8 years to draft and mature enough players IF you are lucky enough to hit on picks for the next 2-3 years). So keep not making the playoffs until all our good club controlled guys make it to UFA and sign elsewhere for nothing? You seem to be the one expecting miracles. Your “plan” appears to be continue with the status quo of being a bad team and every year try to convince the useful pending UFAs to sign here without overpaying them to stay on a losing team. At the same time, target the exact type of players everyone else wants (big, mean, fast, and skilled) and try to convince them to come to a losing team. No, not if done properly, and it can be tweaked a zillion different ways, but no UFA's, and it can be D picks kept and developed but target trades for up and coming prospects already in their curve. And in the next 2 years we have some cap coming off, but I'd almost put money Bo is traded straight across on the speculation roughly of his upcoming expected cap and then go after a 5 mil Dman instead of the 9 mil he'll be offered (ish) if he keeps up his current tear and top D prospect/s and pick/s whatever.. Boeser can be traded out with a some salary retained in return for a prospect. And the players coming off salary to whatever degree to up ante for Kuz as well. We'll know where Podz is in 2 seasons for stay or go. Garland will end up gone, for whatever we can get for him and save more cap. Plus Pearson will be gone, the season after Tree as well and another spot open and up for grabs. There's a lot that can happen... And those are only a couple and obviously there's more but trending up with a bigger tougher faster skilled team is the only answer, whether we like it or not .. The playoffs are no place for smaller softer teams or close to it.... Edited January 10, 2023 by iceman64 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EddieVedder Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 On 1/8/2023 at 9:44 PM, Provost said: Really it is just hoping for the best pick possible. The top three guys in the draft would have all been #1 in the last couple drafts…. So there are some pretty good consolation prizes. We have a legit shot at being a bottom 5 team if we sell off some players. If we stay status quo, we have a legit shot at getting up to 20th spot in the league and miss out on even a top ten pick again. Theres about 10 guys in first round that are sure fire franchise players. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RolexSub Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 We are dropping in the standing slightly to 7th spot now!!! After this road trip we could be down to 5th!!! We are getting there boys!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coconuts Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 #FreeBedard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted January 14, 2023 Author Share Posted January 14, 2023 (edited) As I mentioned before, there wasn't likely to be much movement in odds during December. Most teams play between .450 and .650 hockey so there isn't a lot of wiggle room to move up or down dramatically. We are now at the point where the odds can plummet pretty drastically as the remaining games start dropping and we haven't gained any ground (have lost ground actually). There are just fewer opportunities to make up points. Each loss drops our odds by a decent amount and each win doesn't increase our odds by the same margin. When I made the OP:The odds of the Canucks making the playoffs on various websites as of 13th Nov:MoneyPuck 8.5%Playoff Status 21%Hockey Reference 16.5%Power Rankings 19.1%Five Thirty Eight 24% The odds two months later as of the 13th of January... compare these with our odds of drafting Bedard being 6.5% Moneypuck 0.9% Playoff Status 10.0% Hockey Reference 5.3% Power Rankings 3.5% Five Thirty Eight 5% As always, I caution that Moneypuck is probably the least reliable, it is very volatile and seems like they put a lot more weight on recent games than the other models... so it plummet during a 3 game skid and skyrockets after a 3 game winning streak. If you take an aggregate look, we probably have somewhere around a 5% of making the playoffs. Edited January 14, 2023 by Provost 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-23 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 We are now bottom 6 with that Habs win. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxVerstappen33 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Was trading Mott last year considered a sellers move or not really ? If we werent selling, why did we sell Mott ? If we were selling, why didn't we sell more than Mott ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Provost Posted January 18, 2023 Author Popular Post Share Posted January 18, 2023 In case folks need to know the odds. It is just a lottery for the top two spots and not top three… which sucks. Really to ensure a really good pick you need to be in the bottom three which would be tough but not impossible. Even increasing our odds of a top two pick by a couple of percent is good considering that there is zero upside to winning a few more games and picking 10-15th instead. We just moved up/down 6th worst to a cumulative 15.4% chance of getting a top two pick. Our most likely pick would be 7th Catching San Jose moves us a 17.3% Catching Arizona moves us to 19.3% Catching the Ducks moves us to 23% but most importantly makes it likely we wouldn’t pick lower than 4th and a really good chance at one of the main top 3 guys. https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post J-23 Posted January 18, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted January 18, 2023 3/5 for tonight on the out of town tank board . Solid night. 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coconuts Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 C'mon JR, make that Horvat trade and do the tank a favour 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cocanuck Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Even if the nucks go into full tank mode all they can ever hope for is pure luck in winning the draft.. in order to keep petey they need to get a new coach or two in here to teach the players better habits and structure on defensive side of puck. They will never win without it and jr knows this. Its entertaining to watch shinny out there but it will be a considerably more boring brand of hockey to be more successful.. winning is the only thing that will keep petey here despite what he says publicly.. even with a top 5 pick in draft what has jr proven that he can draft properly with the right type of players based on his draft history? the only thing he has proven is he seems to get talent in free agency that works. I like most of his additions this year.. I've said it many times, you need to hit on late round picks with size and speed to contribute to the team for it to be successful.. cant live on free agent signings to fill all the holes.. i would continue to overhaul the amateur scouting department 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Please sign in to comment
You will be able to leave a comment after signing in
Sign In Now