Tank Hard for Bedard - Playoff chances are already Slim

[Alflives]

17 minutes ago, combover said:

Draft Lottery is rigged it’s done behind closed doors lol 

 

we have a better chance of winning the cup this year than winning Gary buttmans draft lottery. 
i see Chicago Or Arizona as the lottery winners as they are  bettmans pets. 
 

whos the 5th ranked draft pick? 

 

Matthews will be heading to Arizona in a big deal at the 2023 draft.  Bedard will end up in a big US market that is now struggling.  Chicago?  

[Ghostsof1915]

It would be nice if once, just once we were able to draft 1st overall, and have a player that's is the envy of other teams in the league.

[Boudrias]

53 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Matthews will be heading to Arizona in a big deal at the 2023 draft.  Bedard will end up in a big US market that is now struggling.  Chicago?  

How about ARZ tanks for the Bedard pick and then trades to the Laffers. But all the Laffers get is the #1 pick and they lose their position to the Canucks who are #5. Canucks pick Bedard. The Laffers pick some Russian kid who gets drafted. Nasty. 

[Coconuts]

[HKSR]

On 11/20/2022 at 8:56 AM, Ghostsof1915 said:

It would be nice if once, just once we were able to draft 1st overall, and have a player that's is the envy of other teams in the league.

No kidding.  Longest running franchise in the NHL without a 1st OA pick.  Brutal...

[drofssalg]

Seems like deja vu... I think we did this last year.

 

I keep track of the team's results and look at the playoff bar to see what is needed to get there. Last year 19 games played for 14 points. This year 19 games played for 15 points. Yikes... not good to see no real change there. My current math says for a 96 point playoff cut off the Canucks need to run out the remaining 63 games with 81 points. Essentially a 106 point pace on a full season. My rule of thumb to assess the reality of it is the win % - to get to 96 points over 63 games is almost 2 wins out of every 3 games (66%). That is not going to happen. 

 

I called for it last year, I will call for it again - a rebuild. Let's get on with addressing the needs of this roster. I would rather see an honest rebuild that takes another 5 years over being mired in never never land for the next 5 years hoping for some sort of fluke run. I get there are no guarantees for a Cup but from my perspective the current path never gets the Canucks one. A rebuild is needed. 

[Provost]

The actual odds aren't going to change much for a while unless we go on a pretty significant winning or losing streak.

Playing .400 to .600 over the next month doesn't do much to the math as most other teams will be playing in the same range.  Once you get behind it is crazy hard to gain ground.

The issue after Christmas becomes IF we haven't made up ground, the runway to make it up before the season ends starts getting shorter and shorter and the odds become more volatile again.  Each loss would start representing a more significant drop in our chances, and wins would only give very small incremental increase in chances as each game played also reduces the games remaining to catch up at the same time.  Making up 6-7 points on the entire pack we are chasing with 30-40 games left is a lot harder than making it up with 60 games left.

If management is waiting for something to happen to pull the trigger, that is a fools game as not much is likely going to change with the math for a long time.  Better to get out in front of it and start moving players now.

Edited November 22, 2022 by Provost

[DrJockitch]

On 11/20/2022 at 11:10 AM, combover said:

Draft Lottery is rigged it’s done behind closed doors lol 

 

we have a better chance of winning the cup this year than winning Gary buttmans draft lottery. 
i see Chicago Or Arizona as the lottery winners as they are  bettmans pets. 
 

whos the 5th ranked draft pick? 

 

You haven’t been paying attention.
Once we are comfortably eliminated from any thought of playoff contention we will pull it together and make a run for 16th OA. 

[aGENT]

3 hours ago, Provost said:

If management is waiting for something to happen to pull the trigger, that is a fools game as not much is likely going to change with the math for a long time.  Better to get out in front of it and start moving players now.

I'm hoping at this point they're just waiting for other teams to want to trade. That's not likely to be much in the way of action before the winter roster freeze, and then the TDL. We've likely got a couple months of killing time here before major moves happen unfortunately.

 

Perhaps injuries (TOR) and the like will push that timeline forward here or there, but if you're otherwise sitting around waiting for something...best get comfy.

[KyGuy123]

I’m glad we aren’t picking up any extra points and usually lose in regulation. Hope this continues at this point. We need way more draft picks.

[Provost]

It is really interesting to see the different tone this year when I posted the playoff odds compared with the last couple years.  I guess folks eventually realize making the same bad decisions over and over have put us into a loop of futility.

 

The math has been the same each year (when we have fallen below 20% chance to make the playoff on the combined statistical models)… but this is the first time I haven’t gotten dozens of flame posts calling be stupid, a bad human, and not a “real” fan.

 

The same is true then as it is now.  Once you reach the point where the playoffs are very unlikely, it is smart to change your horizon to what will help you the next year.  That stops you from trading assets or picks for bandaids and lets you dispassionately assess expiring and veterans players as assets to turn into futures, and figure out if you can weaponize cap space at the deadline for more assets.

 

Just imagine what position we would be in if we traded Miller, Garland, and anyone other spare prices we could last January/February?  We could have added Marino and Bjorkstrand for pennies on the dollar, and had millions in extra cap to spend on free agents or in trades.  We could have signed Bo to a max term extension at around $7 million if we prioritized him over Miller.  We would have also likely gotten a top ten or even better pick.

 

Making those kinds of decisions is what turns you into a perennial contender as you keep getting assets until your team shows it is really ready to compete.  Then you have a decently long window.  Short term fixes to the bottom end of the lineup are less than useless unless you are well in a playoff position and want to add guys like HIggins and Lappiere for a long run.

 

Instead we are forced to look back at every year and with hindsight about what a missed opportunity we had and how it will affect us going forward.

[lmm]

9 minutes ago, Provost said:

It is really interesting to see the different tone this year when I posted the playoff odds compared with the last couple years.  I guess folks eventually realize making the same bad decisions over and over have put us into a loop of futility.

 

The math has been the same each year (when we have fallen below 20% chance to make the playoff on the combined statistical models)… but this is the first time I haven’t gotten dozens of flame posts calling be stupid, a bad human, and not a “real” fan.

 

The same is true then as it is now.  Once you reach the point where the playoffs are very unlikely, it is smart to change your horizon to what will help you the next year.  That stops you from trading assets or picks for bandaids and lets you dispassionately assess expiring and veterans players as assets to turn into futures, and figure out if you can weaponize cap space at the deadline for more assets.

 

Just imagine what position we would be in if we traded Miller, Garland, and anyone other spare prices we could last January/February?  We could have added Marino and Bjorkstrand for pennies on the dollar, and had millions in extra cap to spend on free agents or in trades.  We could have signed Bo to a max term extension at around $7 million if we prioritized him over Miller.  We would have also likely gotten a top ten or even better pick.

 

Making those kinds of decisions is what turns you into a perennial contender as you keep getting assets until your team shows it is really ready to compete.  Then you have a decently long window.  Short term fixes to the bottom end of the lineup are less than useless unless you are well in a playoff position and want to add guys like HIggins and Lappiere for a long run.

 

Instead we are forced to look back at every year and with hindsight about what a missed opportunity we had and how it will affect us going forward.

But Canuck fans believe in miracles

"If you get in, anything can happen", just look at LA in 2012

or

"Worst to first" like StL in 2019

 

that is why we accept bad buys, 

cuz it hahappened once, so it must be a good model

[Provost]

6 minutes ago, lmm said:

But Canuck fans believe in miracles

"If you get in, anything can happen", just look at LA in 2012

or

"Worst to first" like StL in 2019

 

that is why we accept bad buys, 

cuz it hahappened once, so it must be a good model

… yep.  In the case of LA, it literally happened once that an 8th place team won.

 

In the St. Louis example, it was a top contending team for years that just got bad goaltending for the first third of a season… then fixed that and bounced back.  The little dip of bad play was the anomaly, not the comeback part.  We aren’t that team.

[Pbhatti00]

They need to start selling/retaining of some assets like Meyers and Pearson. Really hope if they trade Horvat/Miller they get a top 4D + back. Bedard would be a perfect Bo replacement ...we get younger, less cap and improve D. I know Rutherford doesn't want to do a full rebuild, but how can they not see this is the perfect year to tank for just 1 season, especially if they can start to fix up their D through a Horvat or Miller deal. 

Edited November 23, 2022 by Pbhatti00

[Fred65]

1 hour ago, Pbhatti00 said:

They need to start selling/retaining of some assets like Meyers and Pearson. Really hope if they trade Horvat/Miller they get a top 4D + back. Bedard would be a perfect Bo replacement ...we get younger, less cap and improve D. I know Rutherford doesn't want to do a full rebuild, but how can they not see this is the perfect year to tank for just 1 season, especially if they can start to fix up their D through a Horvat or Miller deal. 

It's my belief that to have a chnace of Bedard Vcr is going to need to aquire one more 1st round pick so they can trade those two fiirst rounders to secure the #1 spot O/A. So I'm thinking if Horvat/Miller/Boeser are to go you MUST get a first round pick back and if possible get back a 2nd round pick that we've already traed away. Then and only then will you be able to get Bedard,  we need Burke back to pull that off  

Edited November 23, 2022 by Fred65

[The King of Kings]

I think people should stop putting "Tank" and "Bedard" in the same sentence.

 

I remember a few hockey experts already stated that the Canucks with the current roster are not going to tank and become bottom feeder. 

 

And with the cap situation around the league, the Canucks cannot clear out too many contracts without giving away futures (the best bet would be trading away Myers+Horvat) during the season.

 

Basically the House-cleaning sale cannot happen until the off-season, i.e. after the draft lottery. 

 

Getting rid of Myers and Horvat only is not enough to decrease the overall rating of the team dramaticallly, thus it's not enough for the "tank" before the season ends.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 23, 2022 by The King of Kings

[Coconuts]

40 minutes ago, The King of Kings said:

I think people should stop putting "Tank" and "Bedard" in the same sentence.

 

I remember a few hockey experts already stated that the Canucks with the current roster are not going to tank and become bottom feeder. 

 

And with the cap situation around the league, the Canucks cannot clear out too many contracts without giving away futures (the best bet would be trading away Myers+Horvat) during the season.

 

Basically the House-cleaning sale cannot happen until the off-season, i.e. after the draft lottery. 

 

Getting rid of Myers and Horvat only is not enough to decrease the overall rating of the team dramaticallly, thus it's not enough for the "tank" before the season ends.

 

 

 

 

 

I mean, a Horvat trade alone would seriously impact this team's ability to compete. Dunno why you'd say otherwise. The Canucks don't exactly have someone to replace his production, faceoff ability, or special teams play. The team's record looks uglier without Horvat doing what he's done thus far. 

 

Particularly if they get picks and prospects as the primary return. 

Edited November 23, 2022 by Coconuts

[The King of Kings]

26 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

I mean, a Horvat trade alone would seriously impact this team's ability to compete. Dunno why you'd say otherwise. The Canucks don't exactly have someone to replace his production, faceoff ability, or special teams play. The team's record looks uglier without Horvat doing what he's done thus far. 

 

Particularly if they get picks and prospects as the primary return. 

Yes, Of course trading Horvat will affect the competitiveness of the team. But I highly doubt the team will become Ducks/Coyotes bad by just one subtraction.

 

Scoring is not the problem for this team; it's the defense.  Taking away one of the guns won't "tank". 

 

Also, I don't see the management will trade Horvat immediately.  By the time of the trade (e.g. trade deadline), the Canucks might have won too many games for tanking.

 

The only way it will work is Demko continues to struggle (bad games after bad games in weekly basis), and shows no sign of bounceback.

Edited November 24, 2022 by The King of Kings

[Coconuts]

Just now, The King of Kings said:

Yes, Of course trading Horvat will affect the competitiveness of the team. But I highly doubt the team will become Ducks/Coyotes bad by just one subtraction.

 

Scoring is not the problem for this team; it's the defense.  Taking away one of the guns won't "tank". 

 

The only way it will work is Demko continues to struggle (bad games after bad games in weekly basis).

It wouldn't be a traditional tank, certainly, but it'd be devastating to our ability to compete. Odds are we're not out-tanking a team like Anaheim anyway, but if we want to stay closer to the bottom and to get a high pick trading Bo is a one-step move to getting us there imo. 

 

The odds of drafting Bedard are small for the team that finishes last, Bedard is unlikely any way you spin it. But hey, if the idea is to draft top 5? Yeah, trading Bo would probably be enough imo. I argued all summer that Horvat wasn't a luxury for this team, he plays too many important roles. For one, trade Bo and suddenly you're slotting Miller back to center full-time and that in itself probably loses you at least a few games given how questionable he is defensively.

 

Losing Bo's faceoffs would impact our puck possession, which would probably result in more goals against. He takes the lions share of our draws and he's our best faceoff guy period. 

[Gawdzukes]

On 11/22/2022 at 12:31 PM, drofssalg said:

Seems like deja vu... I think we did this last year.

 

I keep track of the team's results and look at the playoff bar to see what is needed to get there. Last year 19 games played for 14 points. This year 19 games played for 15 points. Yikes... not good to see no real change there. My current math says for a 96 point playoff cut off the Canucks need to run out the remaining 63 games with 81 points. Essentially a 106 point pace on a full season. My rule of thumb to assess the reality of it is the win % - to get to 96 points over 63 games is almost 2 wins out of every 3 games (66%). That is not going to happen. 

 

I called for it last year, I will call for it again - a rebuild. Let's get on with addressing the needs of this roster. I would rather see an honest rebuild that takes another 5 years over being mired in never never land for the next 5 years hoping for some sort of fluke run. I get there are no guarantees for a Cup but from my perspective the current path never gets the Canucks one. A rebuild is needed. 

Just making strides to get there would be enough. Resigning Miller was idiotic unless their plan is to trade him.