Horvat was taken for granted here

[wai_lai416]

5 hours ago, eeeeergh said:

Theres a pretty big discrepancy between Horvat and Miller's EV vs PP goal production. Over their careers, Miller's had 27% of his goals on the powerplay, Bo has had 33%. 

 

They also have virtually identical shooting percentages over their careers (14%)

 

Miller has averaged .73 ppg over his career, while Bo has averaged .675. 

 

Horvat is probably most comparable to Brayden Schenn who makes 6.5 million and will continue to do so well into his mid 30's, so I'd say you're right, 6.5m is about where his contract should be. But if he got offered 5.5m (comparison to RNH) presumably there was some wiggle room for negotiation.

 

I'd have been happy having Horvat back for 6.5m but truth is I'm happier with the cap space (after AB is done next year) and the 1st + Raty. 

problem was he was offered 5.125mil which imo is a slap in the face and an utter insult.. people can choose to believe the rumors that he was offered the exact rnh or not. i believe it just coz that's the type of person JR is so it's not unreasonable he offered that. 5.125 is barely higher than what he gave mikheyev. and is less than 1/3 of the team is making and a significant paycut from his current contract. i dunno what kind of GM starts negotiation of a player that's maket value is prolly in the 6-7 range by telling him to take a paycut. whether yo like bo or don't like bo.. good captain or not.. that 5.125 offer is outright unreasonable and disrespectful and i reckon that soured the relationship and made bo bet on himself for the season.. he pretty much knows unless he have no points and have the worse ever season in his career.. there's no harm in him betting on himself prior to the start of the season coz he wont get an offer worse than the canucks initial offer..

 

i still believe out of good faith the negotiation at the very bare minimum should have started with what he's currently making.. 5.5mil.. even if bo's camp countered with 7.5 they can eventually work their way to 7 or 6.5ish if bo is willing to take a little less. completely doable if they started the negotiation right away in the summer instead of waiting till last min before training camp leaving bo second fiddle to miller. it's pretty clear the management stance was if they sign miller.. then they really don't care too much about whether they re-sign bo or not and more interested if he's willing to take a massive paycut from the market.. and if they moved miller then they'll be more interested and serious about re-signing bo.. i get that change is required with this team.. but i still believe bo was disrespected during the start of the negotiation.. JR keep saying we need to get younger.. so he prioritized the guy that's going to be north of 30 before the start of his contract.. makes 0 sense..

 

i'd take Bo at 6.5mil over a 1st and Raty any day of the week. canucks drafting is terrible outside of EP and Hughes in the 1st round.. picking from 13-18 is like 1/4 chance of getting a player that will have a decent impact in the NHL. with the canucks it's more like a 1/10 chance.. Raty may or may not work out.. he's likely to be tossed into the lineup next season whether he's ready or not.. and if he's kept in the AHL when was the last time you have a player forward/defence that developed and reach their potential in our farm system? probably never? at least i can't think of one in the utica/abbottsford era that made the team and is anywhere close to their supposive potential.

[Petterson649]

On 2/9/2023 at 6:07 PM, Dazzle said:

These couple of games have revealed something - fanbase and organization took him for granted.

 

Horvat gave his heart and soul to this city and team. And what did we do? We made all sorts of excuses to diminish his contributions. Worst of all, him getting 8.5 mill was him apparently "getting greedy"

 

Now NYI fans are cheering for him in a way that fans haven't done before, despite the number of jerseys.

 

Horvat has left us behind - and he isn't going to look back. Management and the fans here have let him down for the last time.

 

We talk about other people at fault (i.e. Benning), but we rarely talk about how we seriously screwed up.

 

We did Horvat dirty.

You make it seem like personal but hockey's a business. You had a breakout season on a contract year and we can't afford him. end of story

[kanucks25]

Yes and all credit for Horvat should go to the man who drafted him.

 

Glad we agree, @Dazzle

[IBatch]

9 hours ago, eeeeergh said:

Theres a pretty big discrepancy between Horvat and Miller's EV vs PP goal production. Over their careers, Miller's had 27% of his goals on the powerplay, Bo has had 33%. 

 

They also have virtually identical shooting percentages over their careers (14%)

 

Miller has averaged .73 ppg over his career, while Bo has averaged .675. 

 

Horvat is probably most comparable to Brayden Schenn who makes 6.5 million and will continue to do so well into his mid 30's, so I'd say you're right, 6.5m is about where his contract should be. But if he got offered 5.5m (comparison to RNH) presumably there was some wiggle room for negotiation.

 

I'd have been happy having Horvat back for 6.5m but truth is I'm happier with the cap space (after AB is done next year) and the 1st + Raty. 

I made a dozen posts this summer illustrating that Brayden Schenn was Bo's best comp.   Got some traction.  Hayes and Couture were both overpaid. Let someone else deal with that headache.    That said was hoping all Fall the team could sign him to a reasonable deal - that to me anyways, was in the .650 7.25 range x 7-8.    Maybe the team could have managed that in the summer, padding stats on a UFA year rarely works out for the team.   Only the player.    We don't need to compare if we kept Miller of if we kept Horvat.   One wanted to be here and signed.   The other went for the money and that's it.   Since the late 2000's that's been something i'm kind of sick and tired of with this group.    

 

Miller shouldn't at all be criticized over this.   He wanted to stay.   Also over his first 3.5 seasons has been our best forward overall.     Yes even with EPs boffo season.   How many times has anyone lamented over players on this team not earning their paycheques?   Well he has so far.   Get he's not going to earn it how some think he should, but at least the man earned it.    By the time the seasons out, will likely have missed few games overall, and produced at what UFAs get paid 8.5-9 today to do.   All the while making 5 and a quarter ish. Guy hates to lose.   Hates it.    I for one grew tired of the same old same old punch card types.    Don't expect 99 points.   Don't expect 25 like LE either. 

 

 

As for Horvat,  he could have signed but didn't.   End of story. 

[IBatch]

20 hours ago, shiznak said:

Read my post about the bumper position.
 

How is Horvat suppose to get assists when he rarely touches the puck when they get positions on the PP?

 

Speaking of the PP. Since Miller’s arrival, nearly half of his first assists have come off the man advantage. I’m willing to bet, Horvat is a big part of his assists total, when he’s feeding him in the slot. 

That's why you have EV points.    The two don't need to be compared - just some folks desire to focus on that narrative.   Horvat was a solid player for us, but no Linden or Smyl.   Or for second line centers no Ronning either.  

[IBatch]

10 hours ago, wai_lai416 said:

i hate this narrative "how many goals he gets on the powerplay" he has just as much goal as Miller does 5v5/SH in the last 4 seasons. this year alone while he was still on the canucks.. he has as much 5v5/SH goals then kuzmenko or EP does in all situation. and in the last 3 of the 4 years he has pretty much the same amount assist as Miller does in 5v5 except for Miller's "career" year.. 5.5-6m is a lowball offer. 6.5-7 is fair.. his current 8.5 is definitely overpaid but that was the only way islander could keep him for a guy with no ties to the team/city they basically made him an offer he couldn't refuse. EP's next contract we could easily be looking at 10+ maybe in the 10.5 11 range.. is EP worth 2x horvat? i don't think so. in terms of point production as a center pts/82 games he's somewhere in the 25-40 range the last couple season excluding this onewhich would put him in the 6.3-7.2mil range in terms of current salary

Well you're going to hate this one too.  Horvat was on pace for a bad year until the coaching change and some.    Yes i'd like to have signed him - to something reasonable.   Only team/person that won this was Bo Horvat.   Think about that for a minute.   It's too bad we couldn't have made the playoffs because I think that's probably where his best work comes out.    Was hoping we'd have both Miller and Horvat.   Too bad our cap is so messed up we couldn't.   8.5 x 8 ... is just like Lou said "too much too long ".    I doubt he gets 400 points over that timeframe.  And let's be real, most of his game is actually about that aside from face offs. 

[wai_lai416]

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

Well you're going to hate this one too.  Horvat was on pace for a bad year until the coaching change and some.    Yes i'd like to have signed him - to something reasonable.   Only team/person that won this was Bo Horvat.   Think about that for a minute.   It's too bad we couldn't have made the playoffs because I think that's probably where his best work comes out.    Was hoping we'd have both Miller and Horvat.   Too bad our cap is so messed up we couldn't.   8.5 x 8 ... is just like Lou said "too much too long ".    I doubt he gets 400 points over that timeframe.  And let's be real, most of his game is actually about that aside from face offs. 

Lol bo was no where close to 8.5x8 in the summer.. again they prolly coulda gotten it done 6.5-7 in the summer had the Canucks had any intention of signing him instead of just leaving him as a backup plan in case miller doesn’t sign. They had no intention of negotiating with Horvat until after they know what’s going on with JT. So let say they did go all the way up to 7.5 during the season. So they had space to go up to 7.5 in the season but they have no cap space during the summer to negotiate 6.5-7? Sure I doubt bo will get 400 point out of that contract. Just like I don’t think miller will get close to 350 points during his contract either. But I’d be willing to wager bo will end up being more productive than miller in the first 7 years of their new contract. You guys are adamant bo will be a 60 point guy ok fine sure. And I think miller will be nothing more than a 70 ish point guy next season and decline at a pretty rapid pace.. ROR is another example of player peaking at 29 and then declining fairly quick production wise. At least he’s still a good defensive forward. He’s already down to like 40 points in a full season. 2 years after his career high in ppg.. production wise very similar. 50-60 point guy prior to 27-29 where he become almost a ppg guy then started regressing as soon as he hit 30. Let’s just for argument sake miller will be productive till 32 same with bo. At least bo will have 4 years of his 8 years in a productive state.. vs 2 of 7 years out of miller. 

[IBatch]

51 minutes ago, wai_lai416 said:

Lol bo was no where close to 8.5x8 in the summer.. again they prolly coulda gotten it done 6.5-7 in the summer had the Canucks had any intention of signing him instead of just leaving him as a backup plan in case miller doesn’t sign. They had no intention of negotiating with Horvat until after they know what’s going on with JT. So let say they did go all the way up to 7.5 during the season. So they had space to go up to 7.5 in the season but they have no cap space during the summer to negotiate 6.5-7? Sure I doubt bo will get 400 point out of that contract. Just like I don’t think miller will get close to 350 points during his contract either. But I’d be willing to wager bo will end up being more productive than miller in the first 7 years of their new contract. You guys are adamant bo will be a 60 point guy ok fine sure. And I think miller will be nothing more than a 70 ish point guy next season and decline at a pretty rapid pace.. ROR is another example of player peaking at 29 and then declining fairly quick production wise. At least he’s still a good defensive forward. He’s already down to like 40 points in a full season. 2 years after his career high in ppg.. production wise very similar. 50-60 point guy prior to 27-29 where he become almost a ppg guy then started regressing as soon as he hit 30. Let’s just for argument sake miller will be productive till 32 same with bo. At least bo will have 4 years of his 8 years in a productive state.. vs 2 of 7 years out of miller. 

I'm not upset over how things went.   Team needed change.   As far as "what we could of got him for" I find it hard to take anyone serious that uses the first deal offered (started with a 5...that could mean 5.999 we don't know) that ended at 7.5 x 7 and feels somehow this organization didn't do their due diligence.    Of course they start low, i'm sure the same happened with Miller.    I tried to stay away from the "Bo vs Horvat" stuff, it's silly.   Actually was pro both right until it became super obvious we had to trade one of them - which was before Christmas.    They can be mutually exclusive.    How's this trade looking so far anyways?   Not bad at all. 

 

Edit:  We can wait a couple years and find out.   Get player attachment too.   Every team in the league would do better with hindsight as well.   For me, Millers done great in his current deal - and agree doubt he earns his next one either. 

Edited February 23, 2023 by IBatch

[shiznak]

3 hours ago, IBatch said:

That's why you have EV points.    The two don't need to be compared - just some folks desire to focus on that narrative.   Horvat was a solid player for us, but no Linden or Smyl.   Or for second line centers no Ronning either.  

If you’re just talking about points. Horvat’s points trajectory is basically the same as Linden’s. 30 goals a season, with 30-40 assists.

[Baggins]

2 hours ago, shiznak said:

If you’re just talking about points. Horvat’s points trajectory is basically the same as Linden’s. 30 goals a season, with 30-40 assists.

Um, Linden from age 28 on....

 

Edited February 23, 2023 by Baggins

[shiznak]

17 minutes ago, Baggins said:

Um, Linden from age 28 on....

 

I’m talking about their prime years. Horvat probably still has 5-6 more years of 25-35 goals; 50-60 points. Which is pretty much Linden in his prime. 
 

Linden was on a some terrible Islanders team and I’m pretty sure he led his team in points in his first full season there. He also dealt with a lot of injuries after his first season in Long Island and then after in Montreal. When he returned to Vancouver he was entering his twilight years, playing third line minutes. 

[NHL97OneTimer]

On 2/21/2023 at 9:25 PM, Baggins said:

I figured Petey the most likely next C, but I'd actually prefer Miller. First, Miller doesn't give pure vanilla answers game after game. Which would be a nice change on it's own. Second, my takeaway from after hours was Petey didn't even seem comfortable with the idea and said himself, "I've never been a captain before" and something along the line of "I prefer to just focus on my game". If he's wishy-washy on it, better he's to stick with a rotating A for him instead. But I've always been in the "you don't need a letter to be a leader" camp anyway. 

 

I think YOU missed my point. Teams can turn around on a dime with just a couple of good moves and a young guy stepping up. You can "predict" all you want. It's a just meaningless guessing game. Ultimately the first step in being a playoff regular is making the playoffs. I don't think that will take 4 years.

 

Crosby signed his 8.7m deal 10 years ago. The cap was 22m lower back then. Malkin signed his $6m 4 year deal at age 36. Details matter. 

Agree with EP and the captaincy.

 

Looks like you're a retool believer.....which is fine, but we fundamentally differ.  I want a rebuild.  We've been doing the retooling thing for a decade with futility.  There is so much wrong with this team that it will take more than "a couple of good moves and a young guy stepping up".  I'm not sure how you can type that without conjuring up the spirits for some divine intervention or something.  We need a whole new defensive structure, a healthy Demko, a better back-up, a proper third line including a very good C, some more size, more speed and a few years to gel.  We're not even close.  To think otherwise is delusional (sorry).

 

I don't think Miller is the guy you pay that kind of money to retool around.  Malkin is older but the details that I think are important is what you see on the ice and the stats.  Miller is a very good player, but to win right now a team has to have great players at good prices and we need a core that will grow together.....Miller doesn't fit as well as the return package that he could provide.  I'd much rather see a lot of picks and prospects in a short period of time than a rebuild that drags for years.....because that doesn't work either.

[IBatch]

10 hours ago, shiznak said:

If you’re just talking about points. Horvat’s points trajectory is basically the same as Linden’s. 30 goals a season, with 30-40 assists.

.   I'd even say if he can play the bumper, gets in a groove, that he might just have completed his first of a Naslund like run of scoring - which lasted 5 years best case.    Believe he's a lock for 30-30 anyways.   Have to pay for blue chip ability come free agency, and Horvat was a big fish this year.    Skinner and Duchene ... Couture.    Pretty confident NYI fans won't be that unhappy with Bo other then his physicality maybe expecting a bit more. 

 

As for Linden ... that was really his first 7-8 years, after getting traded he kind of fell off a cliff,  a little before really.   To me that had a lot to do with switching to center.    Still old reliable though.   NYI was a terrible team back then.   

[IBatch]

8 hours ago, shiznak said:

I’m talking about their prime years. Horvat probably still has 5-6 more years of 25-35 goals; 50-60 points. Which is pretty much Linden in his prime. 
 

Linden was on a some terrible Islanders team and I’m pretty sure he led his team in points in his first full season there. He also dealt with a lot of injuries after his first season in Long Island and then after in Montreal. When he returned to Vancouver he was entering his twilight years, playing third line minutes. 

Linden coming back was cathartic.    Had one last great series against Turco playing mostly on the third line.    

[Kevin Biestra]

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

.   I'd even say if he can play the bumper, gets in a groove, that he might just have completed his first of a Naslund like run of scoring - which lasted 5 years best case.    Believe he's a lock for 30-30 anyways.   Have to pay for blue chip ability come free agency, and Horvat was a big fish this year.    Skinner and Duchene ... Couture.    Pretty confident NYI fans won't be that unhappy with Bo other then his physicality maybe expecting a bit more. 

 

As for Linden ... that was really his first 7-8 years, after getting traded he kind of fell off a cliff,  a little before really.   To me that had a lot to do with switching to center.    Still old reliable though.   NYI was a terrible team back then.   

 

It seemed to me Linden's production ended precisely with his knee injury that ended his ironman streak.  He had his best season ever (80 points) and then had 40 points in 49 games and blew his knee out.  Never had more than 47 points for the rest of his career after that.

[Kevin Biestra]

9 hours ago, shiznak said:

I’m talking about their prime years. Horvat probably still has 5-6 more years of 25-35 goals; 50-60 points. Which is pretty much Linden in his prime. 
 

Linden was on a some terrible Islanders team and I’m pretty sure he led his team in points in his first full season there. He also dealt with a lot of injuries after his first season in Long Island and then after in Montreal. When he returned to Vancouver he was entering his twilight years, playing third line minutes. 

 

50-60 points was your absolute worst case for Linden in his prime and he was only in that range or on that pace for his first two seasons.  After that he was consistently 70-80 with one season in the 60s for points and then on pace for high 60s the season he blew his knee out and ended "prime Linden."

[Kevin Biestra]

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

Linden coming back was cathartic.    Had one last great series against Turco playing mostly on the third line.    

 

Yeah his return went a long way toward healing the wounds of the Messier and Keenan years.

 

The great ones seem to have one last hurrah in them.  Gretzky with those 10 goals and 20 points the one year the Rangers made the playoffs.  Linden in the Turco series.  Old King Richard went in and won a playoff game for the Whalers against the powerful Canadiens in his final year as he was being ushered out of the league.  Doug Lidster with that last Cup in Dallas.

[combover]

I’m a fan of horvat but this team isn’t going anywhere anytime soon with it with out him 

so I’m glad he got moved. 

And it’s the exact same reason miller shouldn’t  here.

This Franchise can’t win a cup because they refuse to look further than the end of their nose. 

gotta sell tickets gotta sell merch better keep aging player's who won’t help win anything to keep the illusion that winnings important here. 
 

This Team is screwed until it’s sold. 
 

 

 

 

[Baggins]

14 hours ago, shiznak said:

I’m talking about their prime years. Horvat probably still has 5-6 more years of 25-35 goals; 50-60 points. Which is pretty much Linden in his prime. 
 

Linden was on a some terrible Islanders team and I’m pretty sure he led his team in points in his first full season there. He also dealt with a lot of injuries after his first season in Long Island and then after in Montreal. When he returned to Vancouver he was entering his twilight years, playing third line minutes. 

So Linden was "in his prime" until 28 and Horvat is "in his prime" starting at 28? You need to decide when a players prime is because it just sounds like a more clutching at straws to pump Horvat's tires. Regardless, Linden is not exactly the guy to point to for a positive Horvat point trajectory at 28. Linden was a very good two way player, but after 28 his offensive production was never the same. The only real Linden comparison for Horvat at 28 is both are two way players, with Linden both better defensively and far more physical. But Linden also played through that trap happy, clutch and grab, dead puck era. Which can't really be translated to todays hockey.

[BCNate]

WTF, how was he taken for granted.  He was an pretty good 2C, who blew up in a contract year by playing only 175ft of ice, and then demanded 8.5 mill on max term.  

 

Good on him, he got what he wanted, I'm just glad it didn't come from us.