[Report/Rumour] Elias Pettersson Contract Talks

[Elias Pettersson]

Vancouver would be smart to lock Petey down to an 8-year deal.  If they had done that 2 years ago, we wouldn't be in this situation now.  Doesn't matter whether it's $10 million or $11 million or even $11.5 million.  Term is what is key here.  If they only sign him to a 3-5 year term, then the next contract will be pushing $14-15 million. 

 

11x8 is totally fair and fine for both parties.  When the cap is $100 million in 3-4 years then that number won't mean much.  It will be Hughes that we would need to worry about.  In 4 years, his next contract could be $13-14 million...

[kenhodgejr]

8 X 8 is fair for a guy that doesn't fight 

[canuck73_3]

3 hours ago, shiznak said:

Well many here thought Miller will sign for 9m+, when I said he’ll likely get somewhere between 7-8m. So, I think I can gauge the market better than most.
 

I think Kaprizov is the closest comparison to Pettersson. He scored 108 points, the year he needed an extension and was signed to a mid-term deal at 9m. I see similar value there, although Pettersson is a two-way centermen. He’ll likely get a bit more, somewhere between 9.5m-10.5m.

Educated guesses still don’t make it fact. 

[wai_lai416]

It’s a double edge sword if ep doesn’t end up signing this summer. If the team does well the upcoming season.. maybe able to convince him to take slightly less say 10-10.5mil.. but if the team bombs it again.. would u fault him asking for 12+ and standing firm? I wouldn’t.. this isn’t the same as the JT miller situation.. miller is paid handsomely regardless of what he is worth.. unless he defy 95% of nhl players that declines past 30 his contract is destined to not age well and we’ll be lucky if he plays at elite level for 50% of it as compared to EP you’ll likely get elite production the entire duration due to age. Hard to convince player to sign their prime away without a clear future without overpaying.

 

my prediction if he doesn’t sign in the summer

 

10-10.5 if the team dominates and take a giant step forward

11-11.5 if the team is barely a playoff team

12+ or traded if the team miss the playoff 

[shiznak]

1 hour ago, wai_lai416 said:

It’s a double edge sword if ep doesn’t end up signing this summer. If the team does well the upcoming season.. maybe able to convince him to take slightly less say 10-10.5mil.. but if the team bombs it again.. would u fault him asking for 12+ and standing firm? I wouldn’t.. this isn’t the same as the JT miller situation.. miller is paid handsomely regardless of what he is worth.. unless he defy 95% of nhl players that declines past 30 his contract is destined to not age well and we’ll be lucky if he plays at elite level for 50% of it as compared to EP you’ll likely get elite production the entire duration due to age. Hard to convince player to sign their prime away without a clear future without overpaying.

 

my prediction if he doesn’t sign in the summer

 

10-10.5 if the team dominates and take a giant step forward

11-11.5 if the team is barely a playoff team

12+ or traded if the team miss the playoff 

I’ve already mentioned this, in this thread, but I think the best scenario for both parties is they agree on a 5yrs deal worth 9.5m-10.5m. He’d still be paid accordingly with the other top salaries around the league, and this gives him an idea where the team is at within that 5 year period, without committing to the team long term. This also gives him another chance for an even bigger deal, when it expires. 

 

On the flip side, if he continues to be the player we saw this past season. The team has him at a bargain for 5 more years, in his prime. Also, if the team is still in no-man’s land in year 3-4 of his contract. We probably can sell him off and ask for a ransom with his cap hit being so low. 

Edited July 26, 2023 by shiznak

[wai_lai416]

21 minutes ago, shiznak said:

I’ve already mentioned this, in this thread, but I think the best scenario for both parties is they agree on a 5yrs deal worth 9.5m-10.5m. He’d still be paid accordingly with the other top salaries around the league, and this gives him an idea where the team is at within that 5 year period, without committing to the team long term. This also gives him another chance for an even bigger deal, when it expires. 

 

On the flip side, if he continues to be the player we saw this past season. The team has him at a bargain for 5 more years, in his prime. Also, if the team is still in no-man’s land in year 3-4 of his contract. We probably can sell him off and ask for a ransom with his cap hit being so low. 

There’s no way in hell he’s giving this team 5 years pretty much his entire peak prime at a massive discount.. there’s literally no risk for the team and maximum risk for him. There’s no guarantee team will be willing to give him his market value at max term when he hits 30.. he’ll prolly only get 1 or the other. Factoring in one of the most expensive tax in the nhl plus one of the most expensive city to live in.. he will end up with significantly less money than players of same caliber. 
 

EP and his agent will have to suffer multiple blows to their head before even thinking about signing a 5 year deal.. 3 years? Sure he will easily score a 7-8 year max deal after.. 5 years?? Prolly no team will give a 30+ player 11-12 mil at 7-8 years unless you are mcdavid 

[HKSR]

6 hours ago, canuck73_3 said:

Educated guesses still don’t make it fact. 

Right?  I predicted Miller would get $8.5M AAV, only $500k off, and I think Petey will get $11M or a bit more, so I guess it's fact that Petey will get $11M lol

[shiznak]

35 minutes ago, wai_lai416 said:

There’s no way in hell he’s giving this team 5 years pretty much his entire peak prime at a massive discount.. there’s literally no risk for the team and maximum risk for him. There’s no guarantee team will be willing to give him his market value at max term when he hits 30.. he’ll prolly only get 1 or the other. Factoring in one of the most expensive tax in the nhl plus one of the most expensive city to live in.. he will end up with significantly less money than players of same caliber. 
 

EP and his agent will have to suffer multiple blows to their head before even thinking about signing a 5 year deal.. 3 years? Sure he will easily score a 7-8 year max deal after.. 5 years?? Prolly no team will give a 30+ player 11-12 mil at 7-8 years unless you are mcdavid 

The market value for a player like Pettersson is around 9.5m-10.5m, anyway. He not risking anything, causes he’s not committing to a team long term. A risk would be signing a long term deal, and the team doesn’t meet your expectations throughout your contract.
 

And like I said, even if it doesn’t workout, the team will probably trade him within 3-4 year of his contract. He could also ask to be traded to a lesser taxed city, as well.

 

If Pettersson continues to scored near a 100 points rate, until he’s 30. There’s no doubt teams will be lining up to bid on his service on a max deal. Miller signed a max extension at 29, which doesn’t start until he’s 30. Same with Huberdeau, Kadri, and Karlsson. Ovechkin at 35, signed for 5 years. 

[Mando27]

Have to think he gets more than Miller so I would think 8+ is the starting point.

[HKSR]

6 minutes ago, shiznak said:

The market value for a player like Pettersson is around 9.5m-10.5m, anyway. He not risking anything, causes he’s not committing to a team long term. A risk would be signing a long term deal, and the team doesn’t meet your expectations throughout your contract.
 

And like I said, even if it doesn’t workout, the team will probably trade him within 3-4 year of his contract. He could also ask to be traded to a lesser taxed city, as well.

 

If Pettersson continues to scored near a 100 points rate, until he’s 30. There’s no doubt teams will be lining up to bid on his service on a max deal. Miller signed a max extension at 29, which doesn’t start until he’s 30. Same with Huberdeau, Kadri, and Karlsson. Ovechkin at 35, signed for 5 years. 

How do you figure market value for a 24 year old, 39 goal, 102 point, Selke-level 1C is worth 9.5 to 10.5M?

Edited July 26, 2023 by HKSR

[shiznak]

2 minutes ago, HKSR said:

How do you figure market value for a 39 goal 102 point Selke-level 1C is worth 9.5 to 10.5M?

You don’t pay a player based off one career year. Pettersson could easily go back to his career production rate, before this season, which was just under a PPG rate. 

[HKSR]

11 minutes ago, shiznak said:

You don’t pay a player based off one career year. Pettersson could easily go back to his career production rate, before this season, which was just under a PPG rate. 

No you don't.  You also pay for potential.  There's simply no way Petey will sign on the dotted line at $9.5 or $10M.  If you were him, would you?

[shiznak]

4 minutes ago, HKSR said:

No you don't.  You also pay for potential.  There's simply no way Petey will sign on the dotted line at $9.5 or $10M.  If you were him, would you?

The “potential” deal has already expired, when we signed him to a bridge deal. You look at Kaprizov, who needed an extension. He signed for 9m, coming off a 108 points season. There is your comparable.

 

Pettersson gets a 1.5m more, because he plays center.

Edited July 26, 2023 by shiznak

[HKSR]

5 minutes ago, shiznak said:

The “potential” deal has already expired, when we signed him to a bridge deal. You look at Kaprizov, who needed an extension. He signed for 9m, coming off a 108 points season. There is your comparable.

 

Pettersson gets a 1.5m more, because he plays center.

Petey is a centre.  Petey finished 7th in Selke votes this year.  There is a $600k difference in taxes between Minny and Vancouver (at $9M AAV).

 

Centre = $1M premium

Selke level = $500k premium

Taxes = $600k difference

 

$9M + $1M + 500k + 600k = $11.1M

 

Not to mention Kaprizov signed a 5 year deal vs likely an 8 year deal for Petey.

[rekker]

25 minutes ago, HKSR said:

No you don't.  You also pay for potential.  There's simply no way Petey will sign on the dotted line at $9.5 or $10M.  If you were him, would you?

Yip. EP is in at 11 minimum, probably 11.5. People need to just compare the possible centers out there you would trade Petey for one for one. Pretty slim pickings. He's worth it. 

[Elias Pettersson]

1 hour ago, shiznak said:

The “potential” deal has already expired, when we signed him to a bridge deal. You look at Kaprizov, who needed an extension. He signed for 9m, coming off a 108 points season. There is your comparable.

 

Pettersson gets a 1.5m more, because he plays center.

Kaprizov signed his $9 million deal after he scored 51 points in 55 games after only one year in the league...

[wai_lai416]

If Matt barzal is worth 9.15 for being a 60 point guy and Horvat at 8.5 you bet EP is going to be worth 11.. he’s been on this pace for 1.5 season now and at worse he’s going to be a ppg guy. He’s pretty much been close to a ppg guy prior. 
 

Aho is being paid for being a ppg guy on a CONTENDER. They have been an annual contender for years now.. Vancouver have been annual in the lottery for years.. if Carolina is in vancouvers situation u think aho is signing for 9.75? Prolly not. 
 

it’s also possible Aho took a slight discount because he was paid handsomely on his last contract thx to Montreal offer sheet. I didn’t think aho would have gotten a 5 year 8.5 contract if Montreal didn’t offer him that maybe more like 5-7x7.5-8

[cripplereh]

EP will get what's coming to him is my guess lol.

[N4ZZY]

Yeah, I’m not sure how I feel about Petey. Negotiations (if they’re taking place at all) seems way too silent. Is that good news or bad? 

 

Usually there is something from the media, but so far, nothing. 

 

[N4ZZY]

9 hours ago, wai_lai416 said:

If Matt barzal is worth 9.15 for being a 60 point guy and Horvat at 8.5 you bet EP is going to be worth 11.. he’s been on this pace for 1.5 season now and at worse he’s going to be a ppg guy. He’s pretty much been close to a ppg guy prior. 
 

Aho is being paid for being a ppg guy on a CONTENDER. They have been an annual contender for years now.. Vancouver have been annual in the lottery for years.. if Carolina is in vancouvers situation u think aho is signing for 9.75? Prolly not. 
 

it’s also possible Aho took a slight discount because he was paid handsomely on his last contract thx to Montreal offer sheet. I didn’t think aho would have gotten a 5 year 8.5 contract if Montreal didn’t offer him that maybe more like 5-7x7.5-8

That deal for Bo is not going to age well for the Islanders. Bo’s contract to New York is like JT’s contract to the Canucks. It’ll just age poorly. 

 

Give Petey the money! He’s probably worth 10M easily. If he signs a team friendly deal, then maybe 9.75M? But I doubt it. This kid knows what he’s doing. I’d be worried if he doesn’t sign a deal come late August/September.