Vasily Podkolzin | #92 | RW

[Noble 6]

36 minutes ago, gurn said:

He will be playing with better players, they will be in position to take a pass and do something more than just shoot at a goalies pads.

The breakouts  be better, leading to more  more offensive chances.

The defensive schemes will be better leading to more turnovers and thus more offensive and better offensive opportunities.

He will have grow a bit bigger and stronger

He will have had a couple of years to work on his skating.

 

These are all things professional scouts, and Gm's take into account while ranking players.

 

 

Everything you said is true for every other team in the league is well. Better defenders on other teams will lead to less offense. Better systems on other teams will lead to less chances. Goalies will be better leading to less goals scored. 

 

Scouts are wrong fairly often. In this case, I think there's a decent chance some of them are wrong about Podkolzin being an elite offensive player worthy of a top 3 pick. 

[Gurn]

4 minutes ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

Everything you said is true for every other team in the league is well. Better defenders on other teams will lead to less offense. Better systems on other teams will lead to less chances. Goalies will be better leading to less goals scored. 

 

Scouts are wrong fairly often. In this case, I think there's a decent chance some of them are wrong about Podkolzin being an elite offensive player worthy of a top 3 pick.  

The truth will be known, in about 3-4 years, till then I lean on the side of the people that get paid to rank players on behalf of billion dollar teams.

[highwayman3]

Whoops - someone already posted the article but in any case:

 

Main points are the guy split time between 3 different leagues, fairly difficult to find your groove when you're switching teams, coaches and systems that frequently.  For the KHL he averaged 3:30 per game which is nothing, so those three games are completely irrelevant.

 

 I'll be paying close attention to this production this season, if he stays with one team and gets reasonable minutes that should be a good litmus test.  If his production sucks in that context it'll be a massive red flag, but I suspect he'll start to produce at a much higher ppg.  I don't think he'll end up being a first liner, I see him topping out as a solid 2nd liner in terms of production but he also brings so much more to the table than points.  

Edited July 30, 2019 by highwayman3

[Yung1]

50 minutes ago, gurn said:

The truth will be known, in about 3-4 years, till then I lean on the side of the people that get paid to rank players on behalf of billion dollar teams.

It's worth noting that the draft rankings you see online are not from the scouts that get paid to rank players on behalf of billion dollar teams. They are from internet personas who make those rankings online precisely because they can't get a job with a professional team. If they could, they wouldn't be sharing those rankings online.

What we can conclude, is that at least 9 NHL teams and their collective scouting dept.'s did not have Podkolzin in their top 10. Now maybe some of that had to do with his KHL contract, but they at minimum did not view him as having enough upside to outweigh the fact that he was not coming to the NHL for 2 years (which really isnt that long of a time for a drafted prospect).

And again, I think vasili is going to be a GREAT player for us and I love the pick at #10. I just don't think he's going to be the kind of player to put up 40 goals or 1 ppg.

Edited July 30, 2019 by Yung1

[highwayman3]

1 hour ago, Yung1 said:

It's worth noting that the draft rankings you see online are not from the scouts that get paid to rank players on behalf of billion dollar teams. They are from internet personas who make those rankings online precisely because they can't get a job with a professional team. If they could, they wouldn't be sharing those rankings online.

What we can conclude, is that at least 9 NHL teams and their collective scouting dept.'s did not have Podkolzin in their top 10. Now maybe some of that had to do with his KHL contract, but they at minimum did not view him as having enough upside to outweigh the fact that he was not coming to the NHL for 2 years (which really isnt that long of a time for a drafted prospect).

And again, I think vasili is going to be a GREAT player for us and I love the pick at #10. I just don't think he's going to be the kind of player to put up 40 goals or 1 ppg.

You can`t conclude that at all lol.  For example NJ could`ve ranked him 3rd.  

[Yung1]

Just now, highwayman3 said:

You can`t conclude that at all lol.  For example NJ could`ve ranked him 3rd.  

touché

[Ray_Cathode]

On 7/26/2019 at 6:43 PM, RowdyCanuck said:

I agree but if madden or Guad grow into good second line centers and we can afford to move bo to peteys wing...it wouldn't hurt us and also having Bo on that top would give us a strong face off guy if Petey can't handle it. 

If iirc o'reilly spent time as a winger in Colorado. 

I think a Horvat as a winger would be a waste, just like when we started Kesler out on the wing, and for the same reason (at least we had the excuse that Kesler was learning the pro game). We have a surplus of young, developing, potentially strong wingers, beginning with Podkolzin and Hoglander (both of whom may become something special).

 

My opinion of Horvat has grown year by year. I originally saw him as a guy that could develop into a strong three C, but Horvat just kept getting better in every aspect of his game. I’m pretty sure that Petey and Sutter going down hurt him last year, along with an insane schedule, and cost him a few points and getting to 30 goals. Having a couple of very good wingers this year (maybe a healthy Baertschi), but perhaps two of Pearson, Miller, Ferland, or Leivo for a whole season can help get him to the next level - what Kesler gave us at 2C at his best. If Pettersson is a legit number 1, and one of Miller, Gaudette, a healthy Sutter, or, down the road, Madden, can give us a strong 3C - we may be looking at 2011 redux, but with players early in their careers. 

 

I also really like the developing mix on this team, Ferland, Miller, Roussel, Beagle, Motte are character guys that will serve as great models for Virtanen, and maybe down the road, MacEwan, Gadjovich and Keppen. We also have a couple of pretty talented racehorses in Jasek and Lockwood. In a couple of years, Podkolzin and Hoglander, and yikes - quite the collection of forwards. Not to mention an improving Lind and Karlsson.

[Phat Fingers]

6 hours ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

If Podkolzin didn't produce at a remarkable level against junior players, how can we realistically expect him to suddenly pick up his production at a higher level of competition?

 

Again, nobody is debating his defensive game and overall impact away from the scoresheet. Those are all very good, but we're talking about production and offensive ability. 

 

@higgyfan

 

I've read that article before. It raises some points, but it doesn't really convince me of anything. An elite offensive player should be able to produce against the top junior teams. If he's getting shut down by junior players, then what exactly do have moving forward? Kravstov was able to score at a higher rate in the VHL (AHL equivalent) than Podkolzin was in the MHL (CHL equivalent). Dorofeyev was also able to light the league up. It's not some unprecedented, unusual event to see a draft eligible player do well against younger players. The article says he likely would've begun to dominate the league if he stayed there, but we don't know for sure and the sample size we did get is rather lacklustre. 

 

Regarding the age difference between Podkolzin and Dorofeyev, I don't think it's very significant in terms of development to this point, especially when you consider that Podkolzin is bigger and stronger than Dorofeyev and better defensively. It likely did lead to an edge in the minds of the coaches, but likely not more than scoring at a 1.63 PPG pace vs. a 0.67 PPG pace. Podkolzin made the Russian WJC team for a coach notorious for leaving off younger players. If Podkolzin could overcome the age bias to compete in the best U20 tournament in the world, there's no reason he shouldn't have been able to for a junior coach. 

 

 

I agree that Podkolzin has some great physical tools. He plays a very powerful game, which his athleticism allows him to do. I question his mental ability to make plays and be dynamic in his offensive game. Jack Hughes has that in spades, which is why he went 1st overall and Podkolzin went 10th overall even though Podkolzin could probably bend him in half on the ice. In that sense, I disagree that scouting is mostly about physical abilities; It's about finding players with a great mind for the game who have/could have the physical abilities to make plays consistently. That's why McDavid is a 100 point player while Grabner is a bottom 6 player even though they are both faster than the average defenseman. 

 

When I watched Podkolzin play, I notice he has his head down a fair bit and doesn't use his teammates outside of basic plays. It seems that he has to dedicate a fair amount of his focus on controlling the puck, which takes away from his awareness when he has it. I also think that's why de displays a higher IQ level defensively; because he doesn't have to worry about controlling the puck, he can pick his head up and read what's going on. If I noticed these tendencies but his point production was still at an elite level, then I would be more inclined to believe that I missed something. However, his point production reflects these observations to this point. 

 

To contrast Podkolzin's playstyle, compare his offensive game to Zegras' from the same tournament:

 

 

 

The first clip in both videos is a decent example of what I'm talking about. Podkolzin's first clip is him powering down the wing and cutting to the net after burying his head as soon as he crosses the blue line. Zegras' first clip involves him making a stretch pass off the boards two zones down, anticipating and blocking a pass on the forecheck and finally finding Hughes with a seeing eye pass in into the slot for a goal. That was just one clip, but it shows the difference in processing between the two players. These two players were taken within one spot of each other, but I'd say one has a significantly higher ceiling in terms of production and offensive ability. 

 

Also, comparing Podkolzin to LaFreniere is just wrong. Lafreniere's production has been in in line with Crosby's and making Team Canada in you're draft -2 year is significantly more impressive than making team Russia in your draft year. Significantly, as in not in the same realm. 

Zegras and Podz are completely different players.  Hughes and Podz are completely different players.  

 

Podz needs to improve aspects of his game, so does Zegras and Hughes.  

 

This is all accurate and Podz hopefully stays on one team this year. Playing with pros and learning the pro game from Datsyuk cant be a bad thing.  

 

Podz needs to have a stable learning environment IMO.  Provided he isnt bounced between many leagues and teams, we can get a full assessment of his game.  

 

Podz is not billed as a line driver but as a very good, complete complimentary player that does all the heavy work.  As I see it, he is a guy that can provide the muscle, forecheck and net pressure that frees up players like Ep40, Boeser, Baer and Horvat to focus on scoring.  

 

This is a team need, maybe not as much now, but he is a type of player you need and has a game that is made for the NHL playoffs.  

 

Of all the players taken in the first, Podz never got settled into one team.  That he appears to have stuck on a very good KHL team at 17 is remarkable.  

 

 

 

 

[Canuck Surfer]

6 hours ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

The first clip in both videos is a decent example of what I'm talking about.

Look at the pass Pod makes at 1:04 of that video.  Instead of driving wide. He pulls up and cuts to the middle stick handling. Makes a cross ice pass for an assist.   Not sure you get that he has no mental game? Or that he always has his head down. 

 

6 hours ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

Also, comparing Podkolzin to LaFreniere is just wrong.

It was just a point, Lafreniere scored only 1 point in that tournament.  They are very close to the same age. 

 

You were chastising Pod for his stats.  That he did not put up big numbers.  But in many circumstance, he was playing against competition older than Lafreniere does in junior. But the same at that tourney.

[Noble 6]

10 minutes ago, Canuck Surfer said:

Look at the pass Pod makes at 1:04 of that video.  Instead of driving wide. He pulls up and cuts to the middle stick handling. Makes a cross ice pass for an assist.   Not sure you get that he has no mental game? Or that he always has his head down. 

 

It was just a point, Lafreniere scored only 1 point in that tournament.  They are very close to the same age. 

 

You were chastising Pod for his stats.  That he did not put up big numbers.  But in many circumstance, he was playing against competition older than Lafreniere does in junior. But the same at that tourney.

 

I think that was a pretty basic play. 

 

Lafreniere is close to Podkolzin in age, but they are going to be drafted a full year apart. Lafreniere has put up insane numbers, scoring over 40 goals and 80 points as a 16 year old. Those numbers are right around Crosby/McDavid levels. 

[RowdyCanuck]

1 hour ago, Ray_Cathode said:

I think a Horvat as a winger would be a waste, just like when we started Kesler out on the wing, and for the same reason (at least we had the excuse that Kesler was learning the pro game). We have a surplus of young, developing, potentially strong wingers, beginning with Podkolzin and Hoglander (both of whom may become something special).

 

My opinion of Horvat has grown year by year. I originally saw him as a guy that could develop into a strong three C, but Horvat just kept getting better in every aspect of his game. I’m pretty sure that Petey and Sutter going down hurt him last year, along with an insane schedule, and cost him a few points and getting to 30 goals. Having a couple of very good wingers this year (maybe a healthy Baertschi), but perhaps two of Pearson, Miller, Ferland, or Leivo for a whole season can help get him to the next level - what Kesler gave us at 2C at his best. If Pettersson is a legit number 1, and one of Miller, Gaudette, a healthy Sutter, or, down the road, Madden, can give us a strong 3C - we may be looking at 2011 redux, but with players early in their careers. 

 

I also really like the developing mix on this team, Ferland, Miller, Roussel, Beagle, Motte are character guys that will serve as great models for Virtanen, and maybe down the road, MacEwan, Gadjovich and Keppen. We also have a couple of pretty talented racehorses in Jasek and Lockwood. In a couple of years, Podkolzin and Hoglander, and yikes - quite the collection of forwards. Not to mention an improving Lind and Karlsson.

I agree it would be a waste but he would be a bull on that line and also give him more offense and cut his responsibilities on the D zone ha. Take linden for example played wing and center.  That's who I see bo as. 

[Kanukfanatic]

19 hours ago, higgyfan said:

Dig a little deeper and there are interesting reasons for his point total. Quotes from https://dobberprospects.com/prospect-deep-dive-vasili-podkolzin/

 

"The MHL is the top junior league in Russia. It is somewhat comparable to Canadian junior leagues except that it’s even more uneven than those. Some teams in the MHL are really good while others are terrible. You’ll also see very odd coaching decisions in that league. Sometimes top forwards play 30 minutes per game (see: Shafigullin, Bulat) whereas other coaches like the scoring by committee approach more. MHL numbers should always be investigated further instead of just checking the totals.

 

"Podkolzin also played most of those games against the top teams in the league and didn’t have a chance to pad his stats against some of the weaker teams – that’s why sample size is an important factor. If he had stayed in the MHL, he most likely would have started to dominate at that level pretty quickly, and his numbers at the end of the season would have looked very impressive. But instead, the organization decided it’s better for his development to make the jump to the VHL."

 

 

"Because of these factors, I’m not worried about Podkolzin’s numbers in the MHL. They don’t look great on paper but considering it’s a very small sample size and he was just starting to adjust to that level at the start of the season when he was barely 17 years old, I don’t have an issue with his numbers there."

 

The article even mentions the player you had compared Podk to...Pavel Dorofeyev.

 

"One important thing to remember about Podkolzin is his age. He doesn’t turn 18 until a couple of days after the 2019 NHL Entry Draft. Prospect’s age within his draft class gets often overlooked but I believe it’s an important detail to consider. For example, another Russian prospect Pavel Dorofeyev is eight months older than Podkolzin. That’s a significant advantage for the older player. These are teenagers who are capable of taking huge steps in just a few months. It’s usually these younger players within the draft class who surprise a lot of people when they suddenly explode offensively after they’re drafted."

 

Anyways, it's a great read and the writer seems to know Podk's game very well. 

Awesome post. Thanks.

 

Hopefully some posters get off the whole "Pods offense isn't that great" narrative now that they have some actual facts on what occurred.

[Stierlitz]

1 hour ago, Phat Fingers said:

This is all accurate and Podz hopefully stays on one team this year. Playing with pros and learning the pro game from Datsyuk cant be a bad thing.  

Just little correction: Pavel Datsyuk has signed his last KHL contract with his home team Avtomobilist, Yekaterinburg - Pavel promised his fans in Yekaterinburg several years ago to finish his hockey career at home.

[Phat Fingers]

3 hours ago, Stierlitz said:

Just little correction: Pavel Datsyuk has signed his last KHL contract with his home team Avtomobilist, Yekaterinburg - Pavel promised his fans in Yekaterinburg several years ago to finish his hockey career at home.

Thanks,

 

Appreciate the info.  I am not as familiar with the KHL.  

Edited July 31, 2019 by Phat Fingers

[AlwaysACanuckFan]

 

[Nucker 67]

2 hours ago, AlwaysACanuckFan said:

 

That's great! I like the Russian influence with the Bure banner and the Russian flag. Pod looks great in the black skate jersey.  Also see he has his #19 reversed. Perfect.

 

[Zoolander]

3 hours ago, AlwaysACanuckFan said:

 

Damn. Actually made me smile

 

Can't wait for this kid to come over

[aGENT]

22 hours ago, Yung1 said:

It's worth noting that the draft rankings you see online are not from the scouts that get paid to rank players on behalf of billion dollar teams. They are from internet personas who make those rankings online precisely because they can't get a job with a professional team. If they could, they wouldn't be sharing those rankings online.

FWIW, Mackenzie compiles his list after polling actual team's scouts. Hockey Prospect is a scouting service used by actual NHL teams. There's other guys as well that work for the league, ISS etc and guys who are scouts but got hired by places like Elite Prospects etc. Ryan Biech who was editing Canucks Army and helped them compile draft lists every year was recently hired by the actual Canucks.

 

So while I'm sure there are a few 'internet personas' who 'scout' players from little more than Youtube videos from there mom's basement's, a good chunk of them are QUITE legit.

Edited July 31, 2019 by aGENT

[GoldenAlien]

4 hours ago, AlwaysACanuckFan said:

 

God that 50th anniversary patch is just an aberration on an otherwise classic jersey.  Really should be half of its current size.   

[Ferlands_Head]

On 7/29/2019 at 5:19 PM, Canuck Surfer said:

There have been a fair few players more effective than Pav? Obviously Gretzky was mesmerizing beyond any description.

 

Man, who was ever more a pure adrenaline rush?  Fluck he was fun to watch!

 

 

But were in for such a treat with Elias Pettersson. He breaks ankles like Datsyuk, drops backhand dimes  like Hank Sedin and still shoots as good as anyone not named Ovechkin.

 

That said...  Who is the closest to Pavel Bure, in todays game?

 

Kucherov has the speed, and is pretty slick. Not quite the power? The Hughes brothers are also going to be sic! Maybe MacKinnon or Patrick Kane??

My vote goes to Connor McDavid or Matt Barzal