[Trade] Lightning trade J.T. Miller to Canucks for Marek Mazanec, 2019 3rd-round pick, 2020 conditional 1st-round pick

[theo5789]

22 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

The Miller trade looks really good right now, but that doesn’t negate the fact that, on pure value, it was a questionable move at the time it was made.

 

Nobody, not Benning, nor the pro scouting staff, believed they were actually acquiring a >point per game player and team scoring leader in JT Miller. Based on the player value at the time, and the conditions (TBL cap issues, June trade market), the Canucks did overpay, or at least they paid at the very top end of what could be considered a reasonable price range for Miller.

 

It worked out really well, but that was by no means a guarantee, and I doubt even the most optimistic people in the room on that day in June 2019 were banking on Miller becoming the contributor he was for Vancouver in the 2019-20 season.

 

It’s a win right now, clearly. But will it still be a win if the first round pick turns into a HHOF level player? Would it be fair to judge the trade negatively if that first round pick vastly over-performs its expected value? Probably not. So is it fair to judge the trade a win after Miller over-performed his expected value? I guess it depends on how you want to look at things.

 

For me, the question is whether or not it was a win when Benning paid what was almost universally considered a very steep price for Miller? Even if Benning and the Canucks’ pro scouts knew they were getting 2019-20 JT Miller, was it a good decision to pay top end/higher than market value at the time? Could the trade have still been made if the Canucks has offered less? Based on the values and conditions on the day the trade was made, did Benning get the best deal he could?

 

Maybe that all sounds nitpicky, and I admit, it kinda is. I really don’t care any more about the valuations in June of 2019. The player we have today in JT Miller is well worth the price that was paid. He’s worth significantly more than what was paid. It worked out really well, and I’m very happy the deal happened.

 

I was also very happy with the acquisition itself, when it happened. Really liked the player and believed Miller would be an excellent addition to the team. But I did question the price, based on the values at the time, and nothing that I’ve learned since the trade really changes that.

 

I guess I look at it this way: would it have been a great trade of the Canucks traded Jyrki Lumme in 1997-98 for a 1998 sixth round pick? Definitely not. But what if they drafted Datsyuk with that pick? Would it now be a legendary trade? Robbery? For me, the answer is no. Dumping Lumme for a very late pick would’ve been a bad trade. Doesn’t matter if you luck out with the pick. The trade is judged by the value at the time it’s made. 

(EDIT: Maybe Lumme is a bad example, since he wasn’t retained and was on an expiring contract, so getting something for him, rather than nothing, would possibly have been a good trade, especially in a losing season. But that doesn’t really change my point. )

 

With Miller, a lot of credit goes to Benning and the pro scouting staff for identifying a player in JT Miller who was a perfect fit for this lineup, and excellent target identification for and under-utilized/undervalued player with the potential to blossom in a larger role. And I do give them a lot of credit for this. It was a great addition and some very smart pro scouting.

 

But they also lucked out. They just did. Miller has outperformed their wildest dreams. I just can’t give them credit for “knowing” that he’d come in and score 72 points in 69 games, because they just didn’t.

 

Benning paid a steep price. Almost certainly more than he needed to, to get the deal done. It worked out, but the cost was high, and this created more risk than was absolutely necessary, in terms of the value of the assets involved (based on the June 2019 market). This really hasn’t changed for me.

 

Do I really care? 
 

Nope.

 

Love JT Miller. And I really don’t give a flying **** any more about about the assets that were sacrificed to acquire him. He’s already proven to be well worth the cost (even if it was an overpayment at the time). 

You're right that his PPG play has exceeded all of our expectations. However, everything else that he has brought was exactly as advertised. He was surely a top 6 player for us (despite many criticisms of him was that he as a bottom 6 player). Many of us believed he would be a 60 point guy (over a full season) in this top 6 role with us with some optimism that he could be a 70 point guy playing alongside someone like EP and Boeser. Let's remember that we didn't have many 60 point guys prior to his arrival so it was always going to a welcomed offensive boost (however many same his previous 47 point season, in 3rd line minutes no less, and considered him to be "regressing" already.

 

So with that expectation, we also looked at his contract and with 4 years and 5.25 million for a top 6 player is a pretty darn good contract, another added value here. Yes this is expensive for a 3rd liner in which he was for Tampa, but it was more an abundance of riches for them rather than them trying to "dump" him. This is where I think the idea of a cap dump is debated, where some think they should've paid us to take him like in other cap dump type deals. I think we found out he was available and jumped on it. We could've played games to try and lower the price, but it also could've opened up to other teams and potentially driven his price up. Another example here is when we traded Toffoli pre-trade deadline. Many still think we overpaid here as well, but had we waited until the TDL, we can see the prices were much higher than what we gave up.

 

As you've mentioned, we scouted him as a player that fit into the system we wanted. Miller was good a retrieving pucks and finding open players. This is something he had done in Tampa on their PP mainly, but we used him similarly in 5v5 play as well. He could play all forward positions, most importantly center, and he has proven that being our 2nd most used player on faceoff duties and is tops in FO win%. Because of this, many of us had pegged him even prior to the start of the year with Pettersson (who is weak on faceoffs currently) and would support him while others had pegged Ferland in the same spot instead. Which also adds that Miller could play that physical game and also stand up for EP and others, which was also something that we lacked in our top 6. On top of all of this, Miller could PK as well, so he was known to be defensively responsible as well and was an added asset there when needed.

 

So yes a 1st is always a high price to pay, but it was also somewhat protected. The ones who thought we had a fighting chance at the playoffs this season felt confident we were going to at least hit the playoffs no later than next season, where many of the ones that were disparaging the trade kept mentioning how we would lose a top 10 pick (which there was potential, but would've taken a pretty colossal collapse in the direction we were headed in especially with the addition of Miller). So we were almost always looking a bottom half of the 1st round pick where the odds of a potential HHOF player would get picked up and likely a player of Miller's calibre would be on the high end of the spectrum at that range anyway. So we got the player now to help our young core get to the next level instead waiting a couple more years down the road on a hope for a player like Miller.

 

I think value-wise at the time of the trade, it was fine (it wasn't a steal, but nowadays GMs mostly make hockey trades and it's very rare to have majorly lopsided trades where one side swindles another). The fact that he has far exceeded our expectations (points-wise and in his leadership in which I didn't expect) is only gravy on the top.

[IBatch]

On 6/29/2020 at 4:52 PM, Pete M said:

without Miller this year, they would have been a lottery team....he is a very important player for the Canucks. Now, if they can resign Toffoli, then they will be contending soon enough....these two players are foundational players and they will be at the top of their game for the next 3 years...totally agree that we are in good hands with Miller and hopefully Toffoli

Re-signing Toffoli means someone else has to go - unless LE retires I suppose then it’s possible, but think it’s unlikely we will be able to re-up Pearson too with EP and QH up as well.      So at best it would give us next season with most of everyone minus LE - at worst we’d also have to factor in the loss of Pearson right away (and then our left side would have a gigantic hole in it) and or JV - a modest improvement at best - about the same would be likely - even worse also a possibility especially if Pearson is traded before the season starts to fit Toffoli in.  Who’s going to play L W on the second line? Roussel? Hmmm...well not great for sure.   
 

Edit:  It’s possible Bear could come back and fill that spot and re-unite the triple B’s or Killer Bees or whatever you want to call it ... not the worst thing in the world but still it definitely comes with some risk.    If Toffoli wants to sign then maybe it’s a cap dump that fixes this for us but then that also has to be factored in, risky especially if the prospect ends up having a good career. 

Edited July 5, 2020 by IBatch

[IBatch]

On 6/29/2020 at 6:17 PM, theo5789 said:

You're right that his PPG play has exceeded all of our expectations. However, everything else that he has brought was exactly as advertised. He was surely a top 6 player for us (despite many criticisms of him was that he as a bottom 6 player). Many of us believed he would be a 60 point guy (over a full season) in this top 6 role with us with some optimism that he could be a 70 point guy playing alongside someone like EP and Boeser. Let's remember that we didn't have many 60 point guys prior to his arrival so it was always going to a welcomed offensive boost (however many same his previous 47 point season, in 3rd line minutes no less, and considered him to be "regressing" already.

 

So with that expectation, we also looked at his contract and with 4 years and 5.25 million for a top 6 player is a pretty darn good contract, another added value here. Yes this is expensive for a 3rd liner in which he was for Tampa, but it was more an abundance of riches for them rather than them trying to "dump" him. This is where I think the idea of a cap dump is debated, where some think they should've paid us to take him like in other cap dump type deals. I think we found out he was available and jumped on it. We could've played games to try and lower the price, but it also could've opened up to other teams and potentially driven his price up. Another example here is when we traded Toffoli pre-trade deadline. Many still think we overpaid here as well, but had we waited until the TDL, we can see the prices were much higher than what we gave up.

 

As you've mentioned, we scouted him as a player that fit into the system we wanted. Miller was good a retrieving pucks and finding open players. This is something he had done in Tampa on their PP mainly, but we used him similarly in 5v5 play as well. He could play all forward positions, most importantly center, and he has proven that being our 2nd most used player on faceoff duties and is tops in FO win%. Because of this, many of us had pegged him even prior to the start of the year with Pettersson (who is weak on faceoffs currently) and would support him while others had pegged Ferland in the same spot instead. Which also adds that Miller could play that physical game and also stand up for EP and others, which was also something that we lacked in our top 6. On top of all of this, Miller could PK as well, so he was known to be defensively responsible as well and was an added asset there when needed.

 

So yes a 1st is always a high price to pay, but it was also somewhat protected. The ones who thought we had a fighting chance at the playoffs this season felt confident we were going to at least hit the playoffs no later than next season, where many of the ones that were disparaging the trade kept mentioning how we would lose a top 10 pick (which there was potential, but would've taken a pretty colossal collapse in the direction we were headed in especially with the addition of Miller). So we were almost always looking a bottom half of the 1st round pick where the odds of a potential HHOF player would get picked up and likely a player of Miller's calibre would be on the high end of the spectrum at that range anyway. So we got the player now to help our young core get to the next level instead waiting a couple more years down the road on a hope for a player like Miller.

 

I think value-wise at the time of the trade, it was fine (it wasn't a steal, but nowadays GMs mostly make hockey trades and it's very rare to have majorly lopsided trades where one side swindles another). The fact that he has far exceeded our expectations (points-wise and in his leadership in which I didn't expect) is only gravy on the top.

Not sure what the “ many criticisms” that he was a bottom six player was about - definitely not from any hockey people.   Toffoli and Pearson are middle six players and JT Miller was definitely a higher regarded player then those two guys have been given he’s not a winger and his track record speaks for itself - second line player means top six.

 

 Every hockey guy in the world can figure out pretty quick the centering the third line on one of the deepest teams in the league doesn’t make you a bottom six player (for what one year too?) - and still putting up great points for that role (like to get 50 points out of Sutter right? That’s elite production for a third liner even with PP time ). 

 

Admit I was a bit shocked when it happened, but having seen him play before enough in the playoffs I knew a little of how he played the game.   Didn’t realize he played the same game more or less in the regular season too - lucky us. 
 

Agree that at the time it was a fair deal, a deadline trade to a contender with space  for him might have been a lot steeper.   Look at what Tatar cost Vegas for example - and he was only on contract for two more years not four.  That trade didn’t work out for them well - couldn’t even crack their lineup so it was more of a depth add...don’t read anything blasting Vegas for it so why would there be a bunch of people blasting JB for JT Miller?    It was a fair deal adding another Horvat type (which is what I kept saying once the initial shock wore off - almost exactly the same stats as a Horvat - but a guy with more of an edge though)...on all but maybe two or three NHL teams deep enough to have the luxury to make him a third line guy playing 14 minutes a game...imagine if JV could do that or AG)...
 

Also agree that a lot of folks believed he’d get 60-65 points playing first line minutes - virtually every fantasy guide at the start of the year pegged him around there as did a lot of folks on the CDC prediction thread too.   Pretty sure JB would have believed that was what he was going to get - definitely a fair value trade.   Read quite a bit on this thread about JB getting criticized at the time media wise about this - can’t speak for Vancouver media as I don’t live around there anymore - but can say I’m definitely having a hard time recalling any negative things on national media and definitely nothing bad said about it back East on print media that I’ve read for sure.   Even at the draft don’t think any negative things were said at the time.    And Burke liked the deal ..

 

Finally id like to add we went from one of the worst face off teams to one of the best (2nd in the entire league) thanks to this trade too.   Not many teams have a one two dot punch like we do.   And that’s with giving EP some and AG time to get better as well. 

[D.B Cooper]

I don’t know why people were so surprised about JT this year.    
Look at his stats.  
In New York he was a 20 goal scorer at a very young age.  Put up 58 points, got traded and still finished that season with 55+ points.  
you don’t just become a worse hockey player between 22-24 years old.   
He was a total victim of Tampa’s stack forward core.     
Even in his “down year” he scored 47 points.  
He was on the rise, then got stifled.  It was pretty obvious this was a guy who was waiting to break out.  

Edited July 5, 2020 by drummerboy

[theo5789]

3 hours ago, IBatch said:

Not sure what the “ many criticisms” that he was a bottom six player was about - definitely not from any hockey people.   Toffoli and Pearson are middle six players and JT Miller was definitely a higher regarded player then those two guys have been given he’s not a winger and his track record speaks for itself - second line player means top six.

 

 Every hockey guy in the world can figure out pretty quick the centering the third line on one of the deepest teams in the league doesn’t make you a bottom six player (for what one year too?) - and still putting up great points for that role (like to get 50 points out of Sutter right? That’s elite production for a third liner even with PP time ). 

 

Admit I was a bit shocked when it happened, but having seen him play before enough in the playoffs I knew a little of how he played the game.   Didn’t realize he played the same game more or less in the regular season too - lucky us. 
 

Agree that at the time it was a fair deal, a deadline trade to a contender with space  for him might have been a lot steeper.   Look at what Tatar cost Vegas for example - and he was only on contract for two more years not four.  That trade didn’t work out for them well - couldn’t even crack their lineup so it was more of a depth add...don’t read anything blasting Vegas for it so why would there be a bunch of people blasting JB for JT Miller?    It was a fair deal adding another Horvat type (which is what I kept saying once the initial shock wore off - almost exactly the same stats as a Horvat - but a guy with more of an edge though)...on all but maybe two or three NHL teams deep enough to have the luxury to make him a third line guy playing 14 minutes a game...imagine if JV could do that or AG)...
 

Also agree that a lot of folks believed he’d get 60-65 points playing first line minutes - virtually every fantasy guide at the start of the year pegged him around there as did a lot of folks on the CDC prediction thread too.   Pretty sure JB would have believed that was what he was going to get - definitely a fair value trade.   Read quite a bit on this thread about JB getting criticized at the time media wise about this - can’t speak for Vancouver media as I don’t live around there anymore - but can say I’m definitely having a hard time recalling any negative things on national media and definitely nothing bad said about it back East on print media that I’ve read for sure.   Even at the draft don’t think any negative things were said at the time.    And Burke liked the deal ..

 

Finally id like to add we went from one of the worst face off teams to one of the best (2nd in the entire league) thanks to this trade too.   Not many teams have a one two dot punch like we do.   And that’s with giving EP some and AG time to get better as well. 

The criticisms came out when they found out we traded a 1st away. Whenever that happens, its major panic. Of course their go-to was that we would be giving up a top 10 pick and worried that it would the one year we finally won the lottery and gave up a top 3 pick. That panic led to believing it would be a bad trade. There were certainly people in the "media" that thought this was a bad trade (most notably JD Burke, who I believe to this day still thinks it's always going to be a bad trade giving up that 1st). I remember people were throwing out analytics and looking at his minutes drop and his point totals drop (even for that one year) and were wondering what the heck JB was doing. They felt like this was a sheer cap dump type trade and that TB was in a tight spot, so we should've fleeced them, except they certainly had other options (the benefits of having the riches of good players). This thread demonstrated this, I believe someone said it starts around page 9.

 

I think people were mainly upset about the 1st and many have been wanting to harp on Benning any chance they got, so they tried to nitpick every possible negative thing they could find in the deal and hoped they were right to continue their tirades. The people that actually looked at the real value of this trade liked this trade as advertised even before Miller broke out (in which then the bandwagon shifted).

[aGENT]

5 hours ago, IBatch said:

Re-signing Toffoli means someone else has to go - unless LE retires I suppose then it’s possible, but think it’s unlikely we will be able to re-up Pearson too with EP and QH up as well.      So at best it would give us next season with most of everyone minus LE - at worst we’d also have to factor in the loss of Pearson right away (and then our left side would have a gigantic hole in it) and or JV - a modest improvement at best - about the same would be likely - even worse also a possibility especially if Pearson is traded before the season starts to fit Toffoli in.  Who’s going to play L W on the second line? Roussel? Hmmm...well not great for sure.   
 

Edit:  It’s possible Bear could come back and fill that spot and re-unite the triple B’s or Killer Bees or whatever you want to call it ... not the worst thing in the world but still it definitely comes with some risk.    If Toffoli wants to sign then maybe it’s a cap dump that fixes this for us but then that also has to be factored in, risky especially if the prospect ends up having a good career. 

Trade Roussel and Virtanen. Re-sign Toffoli (and Leivo short term, 1 year, cheap deal if Ferland can't play, until Podkolzin arrives).

 

Miller, Pettersson, Boeser

Pearson, Horvat, Toffoli

Leivo (Ferland?), Gaudette, Sutter

Motte, Beagle, MacEwan

 

Eriksson

 

If Ferland's healthy, we don't sign Leivo.

 

On 6/29/2020 at 2:30 PM, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

The Miller trade looks really good right now, but that doesn’t negate the fact that, on pure value, it was a questionable move at the time it was made.

 

Nobody, not Benning, nor the pro scouting staff, believed they were actually acquiring a >point per game player and team scoring leader in JT Miller. Based on the player value at the time, and the conditions (TBL cap issues, June trade market), the Canucks did overpay, or at least they paid at the very top end of what could be considered a reasonable price range for Miller.

Disagree. Those of us who weren't panicking and shrieking knew we were getting a solid +/- 50 point, 2 way, physical 2nd liner, on a good contract, who could play all three F positions.

 

You just don't get that player for a spread over two year risk, likely mid 1st, a throw away goalie and a 3rd. IMO we saved having to send a decent A- or B+ prospect in the deal as that's what a 'Miller' should normally cost.

 

That he worked out even better for us is just icing on that particular cake.

Edited July 5, 2020 by aGENT

[IBatch]

4 hours ago, theo5789 said:

The criticisms came out when they found out we traded a 1st away. Whenever that happens, its major panic. Of course their go-to was that we would be giving up a top 10 pick and worried that it would the one year we finally won the lottery and gave up a top 3 pick. That panic led to believing it would be a bad trade. There were certainly people in the "media" that thought this was a bad trade (most notably JD Burke, who I believe to this day still thinks it's always going to be a bad trade giving up that 1st). I remember people were throwing out analytics and looking at his minutes drop and his point totals drop (even for that one year) and were wondering what the heck JB was doing. They felt like this was a sheer cap dump type trade and that TB was in a tight spot, so we should've fleeced them, except they certainly had other options (the benefits of having the riches of good players). This thread demonstrated this, I believe someone said it starts around page 9.

 

I think people were mainly upset about the 1st and many have been wanting to harp on Benning any chance they got, so they tried to nitpick every possible negative thing they could find in the deal and hoped they were right to continue their tirades. The people that actually looked at the real value of this trade liked this trade as advertised even before Miller broke out (in which then the bandwagon shifted).

Great summation.  The thing is did anyone on the CDC read or hear anything about the Tatar trade?  Can say I’ve with quite a bit of certainty that I haven’t read anything negative despite what they gave up and how it played out.   He’s in MTL now and also had a great year in a bigger role ... and he barely saw any ice once he arrived...I think it’s natural to think of what could go wrong - and our fan base has gone through a lot (hi LE).   Even here I’ve seen JD Burke’s stance.   Funny thing is he’s the only one I have heard of and anything I can find about the trade isn’t bad - especially now (Miller turned out to be a fantasy all-star too).    I’m sure if I lived back home (BC will always be home to me) id have gotten caught up in the dread too.   My initial reaction was shock / but after a day I was fine with it (hey guys we just got another Horvat at a great price / I mean what would Horvat get for us if we dangled him at the deadline or the draft? We’d freak out if it wasn’t at least what we paid for Miller right?).     Next time JB pulls the rug under us I’m  not going to worry so much.  Also expecting that will happen again at some point over the next 12 months.    A cap dump? A hockey trade?  Something has got to give to pay the players we need to keep. 

[theo5789]

 

4 hours ago, IBatch said:

Great summation.  The thing is did anyone on the CDC read or hear anything about the Tatar trade?  Can say I’ve with quite a bit of certainty that I haven’t read anything negative despite what they gave up and how it played out.   He’s in MTL now and also had a great year in a bigger role ... and he barely saw any ice once he arrived...I think it’s natural to think of what could go wrong - and our fan base has gone through a lot (hi LE).   Even here I’ve seen JD Burke’s stance.   Funny thing is he’s the only one I have heard of and anything I can find about the trade isn’t bad - especially now (Miller turned out to be a fantasy all-star too).    I’m sure if I lived back home (BC will always be home to me) id have gotten caught up in the dread too.   My initial reaction was shock / but after a day I was fine with it (hey guys we just got another Horvat at a great price / I mean what would Horvat get for us if we dangled him at the deadline or the draft? We’d freak out if it wasn’t at least what we paid for Miller right?).     Next time JB pulls the rug under us I’m  not going to worry so much.  Also expecting that will happen again at some point over the next 12 months.    A cap dump? A hockey trade?  Something has got to give to pay the players we need to keep. 

Many ridiculed the Tatar trade when it happened. Not so much worry that the 1st could potentially be an amazing pick, but rather for a rental that they certainly wouldn't be able to retain. The fact that they didn't play him made it look much worse and the fact that they added two more picks to the deal. It isn't as scrutinized here because it's not under the Canucks microscope.

 

I'm not going to dig back, but there was certainly a lot of scrutiny over the trade from the usual suspects in the media. Some have changed their stance or have decided to keep quiet because they have been made to look like fools, but JD Burke is the only one that I know that has doubled down on his original stance. The criticism of the trade that I've mentioned is mainly the initial reaction, but the discussion/concern over that 1st certainly carried over for some over the course of the season.

 

I'm glad JB is changing some opinions of him, but there are many of the usual that still think he's out to ruin the team. I, for one, don't think JB has a perfect track record, but I haven't felt like he's done anything of major concern that was worth freaking out over especially when context is put into the thinking.

[komodo0921]

On 6/1/2020 at 12:25 AM, Darkstar said:

If Toffoli walks on July 1st and/or the Canucks don't make a deep run in the playoffs, this is an absolute disaster of a trade. Still way too early to assess this deal.

Either way, if Toffoli walks, JB looks silly, once again.

It will only be made worse if Madden really turns into something in LA.

This is why I believe JB will prioritize Toffoli over everyone else.

[DeNiro]

On 6/1/2020 at 12:25 AM, Darkstar said:

If Toffoli walks on July 1st and/or the Canucks don't make a deep run in the playoffs, this is an absolute disaster of a trade. Still way too early to assess this deal.

Well its July 5th and Toffoli hasn’t walked, plus the Canucks haven’t been eliminated from the playoffs.

 

Guess this was a good trade!

 

Edited July 6, 2020 by DeNiro

[theo5789]

It would appear that many do not understand the concept of a playoff rental. Nevermind the fact that other teams paid even more for their rentals (and we probably got the best of the bunch) than we did because we didn't wait until the deadline and didn't reveal the Boeser injury yet to put our backs into a corner. If we can afford to re-sign Toffoli and we do, then that's gravy. IMO, he would simply be a luxury add for our team and not a necessity for the team (nor to save face supposedly).

[CanucksJay]

I'm not sure why we are talking about rentals and Toffoli in the JT Miller thread.

The Miller deal was a home run. 

Easily worth the first rounder especially considering the cap hit.

Its like we used our first and drafted a great player and then groomed him and then have him on a good contract as he is blossoming without doing all of the work mentioned.

[Pete M]

On 6/29/2020 at 2:30 PM, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

The Miller trade looks really good right now, but that doesn’t negate the fact that, on pure value, it was a questionable move at the time it was made.

 

Nobody, not Benning, nor the pro scouting staff, believed they were actually acquiring a >point per game player and team scoring leader in JT Miller. Based on the player value at the time, and the conditions (TBL cap issues, June trade market), the Canucks did overpay, or at least they paid at the very top end of what could be considered a reasonable price range for Miller.

 

It worked out really well, but that was by no means a guarantee, and I doubt even the most optimistic people in the room on that day in June 2019 were banking on Miller becoming the contributor he was for Vancouver in the 2019-20 season.

 

It’s a win right now, clearly. But will it still be a win if the first round pick turns into a HHOF level player? Would it be fair to judge the trade negatively if that first round pick vastly over-performs its expected value? Probably not. So is it fair to judge the trade a win after Miller over-performed his expected value? I guess it depends on how you want to look at things.

 

For me, the question is whether or not it was a win when Benning paid what was almost universally considered a very steep price for Miller? Even if Benning and the Canucks’ pro scouts knew they were getting 2019-20 JT Miller, was it a good decision to pay top end/higher than market value at the time? Could the trade have still been made if the Canucks has offered less? Based on the values and conditions on the day the trade was made, did Benning get the best deal he could?

 

Maybe that all sounds nitpicky, and I admit, it kinda is. I really don’t care any more about the valuations in June of 2019. The player we have today in JT Miller is well worth the price that was paid. He’s worth significantly more than what was paid. It worked out really well, and I’m very happy the deal happened.

 

I was also very happy with the acquisition itself, when it happened. Really liked the player and believed Miller would be an excellent addition to the team. But I did question the price, based on the values at the time, and nothing that I’ve learned since the trade really changes that.

 

I guess I look at it this way: would it have been a great trade of the Canucks traded Jyrki Lumme in 1997-98 for a 1998 sixth round pick? Definitely not. But what if they drafted Datsyuk with that pick? Would it now be a legendary trade? Robbery? For me, the answer is no. Dumping Lumme for a very late pick would’ve been a bad trade. Doesn’t matter if you luck out with the pick. The trade is judged by the value at the time it’s made. 

(EDIT: Maybe Lumme is a bad example, since he wasn’t retained and was on an expiring contract, so getting something for him, rather than nothing, would possibly have been a good trade, especially in a losing season. But that doesn’t really change my point. )

 

With Miller, a lot of credit goes to Benning and the pro scouting staff for identifying a player in JT Miller who was a perfect fit for this lineup, and excellent target identification for and under-utilized/undervalued player with the potential to blossom in a larger role. And I do give them a lot of credit for this. It was a great addition and some very smart pro scouting.

 

But they also lucked out. They just did. Miller has outperformed their wildest dreams. I just can’t give them credit for “knowing” that he’d come in and score 72 points in 69 games, because they just didn’t.

 

Benning paid a steep price. Almost certainly more than he needed to, to get the deal done. It worked out, but the cost was high, and this created more risk than was absolutely necessary, in terms of the value of the assets involved (based on the June 2019 market). This really hasn’t changed for me.

 

Do I really care? 
 

Nope.

 

Love JT Miller. And I really don’t give a flying **** any more about about the assets that were sacrificed to acquire him. He’s already proven to be well worth the cost (even if it was an overpayment at the time). 

the only problem I had with the trade was JB throwing in a 3rd round pick when a 1st round pick is good enough.

[thundernuts]

23 hours ago, Pete M said:

the only problem I had with the trade was JB throwing in a 3rd round pick when a 1st round pick is good enough.

How do you know that he “threw in” a 3rd round pick?  More than likely, Tampa Bay had a price in mind for Miller, Benning likely made an offer, then they came to an agreement.  

[The Lock]

23 hours ago, Pete M said:

the only problem I had with the trade was JB throwing in a 3rd round pick when a 1st round pick is good enough.

You mean you assume a 1st round pick would have been good enough. It would be impossible for you to actually know that so please don't pretend.

[Pete M]

Players like JT are valued high and a 1st is acceptable....You can always ask for a 3rd and that's when the negotiation starts...you are right about not knowing what Tampa had on the table with other teams (but this shouldn't negate the question of "why throw in the 3rd round pick"?)...it's like a game of poker, and a good player/negotiator knows how to play the cards and present a compelling (convincing) offer.

 

JB reminds me of a kid in a candy store ...when he sees something that he wants, he buys it before looking at all the rows of candy, or a poker player who easily shows his cards 

[D.B Cooper]

9 minutes ago, Pete M said:

Players like JT are valued high and a 1st is acceptable....You can always ask for a 3rd and that's when the negotiation starts...you are right about not knowing what Tampa had on the table with other teams (but this shouldn't negate the question of "why throw in the 3rd round pick"?)...it's like a game of poker, and a good player/negotiator knows how to play the cards and present a compelling (convincing) offer.

 

JB reminds me of a kid in a candy store ...when he sees something that he wants, he buys it before looking at all the rows of candy, or a poker player who easily shows his cards 

Please tell me more about how JB is in trade meetings.  
It’s great to hear from someone who is obviously right there in the negotiations. 

[Pete M]

1 minute ago, drummerboy said:

Please tell me more about how JB is in trade meetings.  
It’s great to hear from someone who is obviously right there in the negotiations. 

I'd like to....but it seems you have a hard time reading and understanding....

[D.B Cooper]

1 minute ago, Pete M said:

I'd like to....but it seems you have a hard time reading and understanding....

I understand what you are writing, but do you?    Lol.   
Maybe they started at 1st, 2nd, OJ?   
maybe they wanted 2 1sts.  
To say the 3rd is a throw in is ignorant. 

[Pete M]

5 minutes ago, drummerboy said:

I understand what you are writing, but do you?    Lol.   
Maybe they started at 1st, 2nd, OJ?   
maybe they wanted 2 1sts.  
To say the 3rd is a throw in is ignorant. 

Yeah and Tampa is in a cap crunch with JT Miller regressing to 47 pts and playing on the 3rd line....but teams like LA have cap space and may have been interested... Tampa only knows....so let's negotiate.

Edited July 10, 2020 by Pete M