CanucksAtHome Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Here's a really interesting take by Ray Ferraro on the Brandon Sutter trade on TSN1040. http://www.tsn.ca/radio/vancouver-1040-i-1410/ferraro-sutter-a-good-acquisition-for-canucks-1.337637 Some points that stood out to me: Brandon is 6'3 - you expect him to be physical, but that's not his game. He's really clever. He's not a great passer, but he's a good shooter. He's not going to carry the puck, so his analytic numbers suck. He gets the puck, he chips it forward, he goes and gets it. He has really good anticipation He's going to be their best faceoff man, he's going to be their best penalty killer. He is an excellent penalty killer. He will be a solid contributor. There are 0 GMs in the league who use analytics as a determining factor in a trade. There is a real balance with advanced stats. I would never let someone's possession numbers tip me over the edge or not. I'll give you an example. A zone entry, that is talked about a great deal; if I have the puck 1 foot outside the blue line and I shoot it around the boards and it goes all the way around to the other side and my teammate picks it up, it does not count as a zone entry - you have to possess the puck going across the blue line (edited from up the ice). If I am one foot inside the blue line and make the same play, it is a zone entry. You could be rushing up the ice, and Brandon Sutter will make this play - he will take the puck through the neutral zone, chip the puck in and recover the puck - doesnt matter; this does not count as a zone entry, even though he was the only one who touched the puck. You have to take these stats with a grain of salt. To ignore them completely would be foolhardy; but I don't think they can tell a determining story - you still have to be able to watch. Can Brandon Sutter play against Ryan Getzlaf? I don't know how a possession number can tell you that. I know that there are certain things that can never change my mind analytically. I want to see if player X has courage to go into the corner and get the puck. I want to see if he can battle another player in a 1 on 1 spot and get the puck more often then he loses it. I don't know how you're going to get a number that tells you that. I think Brandon Sutter will be a good addition in Vancouver. The trick for me is that they are going to sign him for an extension - I want to see the numbers on it. Couturier just signed for 6 years @ 4.33 in Philadelphia. How far north of that will Sutter's contract be? Brandon Sutter won't impact Bo Horvat's development. Sutter gives some extra flexibility moving through the lineup and matchups that Nick Bonino doesn't quite have. I think Sutter is smart, positional, won't play the same as his dad. Not as chippy, not as mean. Hell of a nice kid, but on the ice he competes in a different way - positionally, with his stick. He won't get steamrolled by anybody. I won't say his opinion is gold, but I feel like he's pretty even keel and does a good job in pointing out the pros and cons of analytics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jstewboy Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 It's clear as day to anybody who actually watches hockey why Sutter is a better hockey player than Bonino. The people that follow hockey loosely and watch stat sheets over real games are the ones who need it explained to them like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mpt Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Bonino is a good player, but he isn't what we need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runtzguy Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 the roster entering into the season is: Sedin Sedin Vrbata Baertchi Sutter Burrows/Higgins Hansen Horvat Kenin/Higgins/Burrows Prust Vey Dorsett Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanucksAtHome Posted July 30, 2015 Author Share Posted July 30, 2015 Bonino is a good player, but he isn't what we need I agree with you wholeheartedly. It's clear as day to anybody who actually watches hockey why Sutter is a better hockey player than Bonino. The people that follow hockey loosely and watch stat sheets over real games are the ones who need it explained to them like this. I also agree but it's not like Sutter is light years better than Bonino, That being said, I've heard a couple interviews now from what I would consider credible hockey people who think the Canucks upgraded at centre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiveEmTheCan Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Lazy, slow, streaky Bonino was essentially an anchor on that second line for a large portion of last season. The big problem with bonino was that he was a one dimensional player who didn't do much of anything when he wasn't scoring. Benning has been pretty clear that he wants players with a high level of compete. Bonino was never going to be that guy and the trade brings some versatility to the lineup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanucksAtHome Posted July 30, 2015 Author Share Posted July 30, 2015 Another interesting tidbit I heard from 1040 - Jim Rutherford traded Sutter twice, in Carolina as well as Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jiggs50 Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Exactly. Advanced stats are overrated. They aren't everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintPatrick33 Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 The only thing I care about his how Sutter plays in the playoffs. The Pens originally got Sutter because they could not afford Staal under their cap, so he was a moderate replacement. Is Sutter on Staal's level? He is a bonafide stud PK man, maybe he doesnt have the gamebreaking playmaker ability but he is fine nonetheless. In the playoffs, Sutter scores the kind of goals you need come PO time. He has a great shot, can win the board battles, win draws and from what I have seen in the playoffs, does not get overwhelmed physically like Bonino did. All in all, a great move by benning and I just want to see Sutter's game in the playoffs, he will be a gritty player with speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomato Pajamas Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Lazy, slow, streaky Bonino was essentially an anchor on that second line for a large portion of last season. The big problem with bonino was that he was a one dimensional player who didn't do much of anything when he wasn't scoring. Benning has been pretty clear that he wants players with a high level of compete. Bonino was never going to be that guy and the trade brings some versatility to the lineup. Bonino was not a one dimensional player. We depended on his 2 way game, pinning him onto the PK. If anything Bonino was streaky, as was the majority of the Canuck's forward corps, and to say he would never compete at a high level is a bit much to say. I think it's reasonable to say that he isn't the 2nd line centre we hoped he would be. However, if he was a mainstay on the 3rd line, and there was a stud to man the 2nd, then I'd bet none of us would have qualms with what Bonino gives us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoneypuckOverlord Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Another interesting tidbit I heard from 1040 - Jim Rutherford traded Sutter twice, in Carolina as well as Pittsburgh. Can't blame the 1st trade. It was for Jordan staal which was a great trade for Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agoork Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Good video on a Pittsburgh writer's view on Sutter and what he brings (and what Pittsburgh will really miss). Summary: Likes the trade for both teams - fits needs on both teams - but thinks Sutter was the best player involved in the trade. Brings leadership, maturity, solid 2 way game, great PK'ing, speed, a great shot and is good at faceoffs. Was often the adult in a room full of juveniles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl's Jn Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Here's a really interesting take by Ray Ferraro on the Brandon Sutter trade on TSN1040. http://www.tsn.ca/radio/vancouver-1040-i-1410/ferraro-sutter-a-good-acquisition-for-canucks-1.337637 Some points that stood out to me: Brandon is 6'3 - you expect him to be physical, but that's not his game. He's really clever. He's not a great passer, but he's a good shooter. He's not going to carry the puck, so his analytic numbers suck. He gets the puck, he chips it forward, he goes and gets it. He has really good anticipation He's going to be their best faceoff man, he's going to be their best penalty killer. He is an excellent penalty killer. He will be a solid contributor. There are 0 GMs in the league who use analytics as a determining factor in a trade. There is a real balance with advanced stats. I would never let someone's possession numbers tip me over the edge or not. I'll give you an example. A zone entry, that is talked about a great deal; if I have the puck 1 foot outside the blue line and I shoot it around the boards and it goes all the way around to the other side and my teammate picks it up, it does not count as a zone entry - you have to possess the puck going across the blue line (edited from up the ice). If I am one foot inside the blue line and make the same play, it is a zone entry. You could be rushing up the ice, and Brandon Sutter will make this play - he will take the puck through the neutral zone, chip the puck in and recover the puck - doesnt matter; this does not count as a zone entry, even though he was the only one who touched the puck. You have to take these stats with a grain of salt. To ignore them completely would be foolhardy; but I don't think they can tell a determining story - you still have to be able to watch. Can Brandon Sutter play against Ryan Getzlaf? I don't know how a possession number can tell you that. I know that there are certain things that can never change my mind analytically. I want to see if player X has courage to go into the corner and get the puck. I want to see if he can battle another player in a 1 on 1 spot and get the puck more often then he loses it. I don't know how you're going to get a number that tells you that. I think Brandon Sutter will be a good addition in Vancouver. The trick for me is that they are going to sign him for an extension - I want to see the numbers on it. Couturier just signed for 6 years @ 4.33 in Philadelphia. How far north of that will Sutter's contract be? Brandon Sutter won't impact Bo Horvat's development. Sutter gives some extra flexibility moving through the lineup and matchups that Nick Bonino doesn't quite have. I think Sutter is smart, positional, won't play the same as his dad. Not as chippy, not as mean. Hell of a nice kid, but on the ice he competes in a different way - positionally, with his stick. He won't get steamrolled by anybody. I won't say his opinion is gold, but I feel like he's pretty even keel and does a good job in pointing out the pros and cons of analytics. its what the pitsburg hockey writer said about him....he is a streaky player... disappears... just like kassian... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Soldier Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 There are 0 GMs in the league who use analytics as a determining factor in a trade. There is a real balance with advanced stats. I would never let someone's possession numbers tip me over the edge or not. I'll give you an example. A zone entry, that is talked about a great deal; if I have the puck 1 foot outside the blue line and I shoot it around the boards and it goes all the way around to the other side and my teammate picks it up, it does not count as a zone entry - you have to possess the puck going across the blue line (edited from up the ice). If I am one foot inside the blue line and make the same play, it is a zone entry. You could be rushing up the ice, and Brandon Sutter will make this play - he will take the puck through the neutral zone, chip the puck in and recover the puck - doesnt matter; this does not count as a zone entry, even though he was the only one who touched the puck. You have to take these stats with a grain of salt. To ignore them completely would be foolhardy; but I don't think they can tell a determining story - you still have to be able to watch. Can Brandon Sutter play against Ryan Getzlaf? I don't know how a possession number can tell you that. I know that there are certain things that can never change my mind analytically. I want to see if player X has courage to go into the corner and get the puck. I want to see if he can battle another player in a 1 on 1 spot and get the puck more often then he loses it. I don't know how you're going to get a number that tells you that. Anyone who watches the games knows that advanced stats aren't the hill worth dying on when it comes to the worth of a player. Nice to see a guy who has been around the game as long as Ray has remind this city of that. Makes it even more hilarious when people in the trade thread huddled around a few charts and used those to decide that we had lost the trade. The fact that a certain poster literally referred to such people as converts to the church of anti-Benning made me laugh long and hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JeremyCuddles Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 From the highlight clips I've seen he is very opportunistic. Has a slick wrister. Being Right handed is nice too. Hopefully a good temp 2nd liner until Horvat can slide in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJDDawg Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 I trust Ferraro's opinion about as much as anyone involved in the game. Smart, insightful and always to the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saucypass Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 I thought it was obvious that Sutter was a superior player. I'd even say that although he wasn't as good as Staal was offensively, I really do think he did a better job at playing a shutdown game than he did. Sutter was poised to breakout until he got stuck behind Crosby and Malkin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice orca Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Sounds like ole Ray just gave his own advanced stats on Sutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
puckdontlie Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Advanced stats is still in it's infancy. Some critical factors it doesn't account for are level of competition and diminishing returns on increased minutes. I don't think there's many stats on score of the game either since I would expect possession numbers to change from tied vs lead vs behind and the magnitude. It works well in baseball because the level of competition is basically batter vs pitcher. Lefty vs righty. In hockey you can only really do that on a simple basis for faceoffs and maybe the goalie's catching hand. In baseball it doesn't matter who your "bat mates" are. Maybe batting order matters but that's purely the manager's decision. In hockey the factors of linemates vs other team's lines could play a major factor. I think it's funny that +/- is getting dismissed because a lot depends on linemates but corsi % does too. I think the best way to measure performance is "causation +/- scoring chances for/against". If a team is scored against pick out the player or players responsible and include goalies in that stat. Some goals against are honestly due to soft goaltending while others are defensive breakdowns. Also do the reverse for scoring. I put a premium on scoring chances more than shots. I've seen too many games where teams allow weak perimeter shots on purpose and all it takes is 5 seconds or less on a fast break to get a goal. That throws all corsi out the window in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBatch Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Great article - hope this gives all the fans who are not giving Benning the four-five years as a GM (what is needed to get things done with any NHL team) his time to get whatever he is doing done - the realization that maybe this move was needed. I like the fact Kassian is gone, I also like the fact Bonino is gone. Kassian didn't work with this team. Bonino didn't work hard enough (and Sutter will do at least that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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