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The Gudbranson dilemma


Matt_T83

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1 minute ago, vancan2233 said:

 Pittsburgh went on a winning streak after Crosby was out of the line up. Tampa bay is winning with half their team injured. The Canucks were able to win without Henrik in the line up. Means nothing.


Sometimes. 

This team dearly misses Tanevs presence in the lineup when he's out. 

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2 hours ago, Matt_T83 said:

For anyone that missed this article that came out just before Christmas, JD Burke posted a nice analysis of the Gudbranson situation on the Canucks Army website.
Link: http://canucksarmy.com/2016/12/22/should-the-canucks-extend-erik-gudbranson-s-contract

 

He points out that Gudbranson rejected a 4-year, 16M deal the Panther's offered him just before being traded to the Canucks. He suggests that Gudbranson will be demanding 5M+ per year, on a long term deal. However, JD's analytics also suggest that Gudbranson is underperforming for the 3.5-5M/year range.

 

Given how stubborn Benning is, and the price he paid to acquire Gudbranson, I am genuinely worried that we will shell out 4.5-5M per year, for 5-6 years, to extend Guddy. If the analytics are right, we could be stuck with a 5M/year 3rd pairing defenseman for years to come. Now, some people may say we are rebuilding and it doesn't matter, but rebuilding teams NEED cap space. Why? One of the best things you can do as a rebuilding team is have cap space to take bad contracts. You can negotiate deals with contending teams to trade a decent player (say Hansen) in exchange for prospects/picks, and take a bad contract in return. Taking that bad contract can garner an extra late round pick or a better prospect. But if you have no cap space, you can't do that.

 

The dilemma: Do we re-sign him and just give him what he wants? Or do we take him to arbitration? At arbitration we could get him at 3.5M/year, but probably only for 2-3 years. If we put him in that spot, he will certainly hate us and leave the team ASAP. 

Excellent post. I agree that there is a genuine fear for JB to sign him to a ridiculous contract - one that may be more lucrative than Horvat's based on his love for these types of players: Dorsett and Sbisa are good examples. I posted in another thread about how I think it would be great to trade him and draft picks for Duchene, what do you think? 

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1 hour ago, oldnews said:

Hot damn.  Maybe you've finally gotten over a quarrel from years ago?  Maybe I've been the same all along.

Nah, I'm just grumpy all the time.  I've a pretty wife who is always working so i take it out on the internet blindly

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Just now, Aircool said:

 

Oh so Gudbranson was the only player they traded?Clearly you don't understand how analytics work. And you are showing again as you have in the past that you don't know how logic works. Those are not equivalent situations.

 

Gudbranson has as much to do with canucks record this year as he had to do with the panthers record last year.  How can he be the sole reason canucks sucked at the start and not be the reason Panthers we good last year. 

 

The point is one player has very little to do with team success.  Canucks up's and downs have far less to do with Gudbranson and more to do with injuries to our top 2 defense.  Trying to paint a picture black and white only works if your willing to accept it across all instances. 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, darkpoet said:


Fair enough man. I disagree with him making any more than he does right now. He hasn't earned it. 

My position is that if people believe he is worth $5M to a team, then he must have some value and we should try and re-acquire a forward for him in trade. 

I mean, it sounds like it should be pretty easy because there are a lot of geniuses in here who seem to think he's an elite talent!  (sarcasm not directed at you) 

 

Well that's the tricky thing with NHL contracts these days, especially defenceman. I'd be pissed if we moved Gudbranson before we see who he really is on the ice. I know it's been mentioned, but Christ, he's 24. Sometimes it doesn't matter that you've been playing in the NHL since age 18, and hell, maybe he shouldn't have been, but how mature you are as a player. Look how happy people were with Hutton last season and now he's a trade chip. It's fine, but players have up and down years and judging Gudbranson on this season, one that he'd been injured for a decent part of, is unfair. 

 

Sign him. If he $&!#s the bed, oh well. If he doesn't, then we have a solid Willie Mitchell type defenceman who we haven't had since... Willie Mitchell.

 

It's worth the risk.

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4 minutes ago, PhillipBlunt said:

I ain't perfect, oldnews. Stopped trying years ago.

I'm not sure you interpreted my post as intended.

 

47 minutes ago, xRussianrocket said:

 

Hopefully your teacher kept you in to work on your sentences. Stop gaps in your mind is causing you to omit words.

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14 minutes ago, darkpoet said:


I mean, it sounds like it should be pretty easy because there are a lot of geniuses in here who seem to think he's an elite talent!  (sarcasm not directed at you) 

The genius here is squarely you.   I think you should find a like-minded person and work on this together.....

 

9 minutes ago, Hectic said:

Excellent post. I agree that there is a genuine fear for JB to sign him to a ridiculous contract - one that may be more lucrative than Horvat's based on his love for these types of players: Dorsett and Sbisa are good examples. I posted in another thread about how I think it would be great to trade him and draft picks for Duchene, what do you think? 

 

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11 minutes ago, Green Building said:

 

Well that's the tricky thing with NHL contracts these days, especially defenceman. I'd be pissed if we moved Gudbranson before we see who he really is on the ice. I know it's been mentioned, but Christ, he's 24. Sometimes it doesn't matter that you've been playing in the NHL since age 18, and hell, maybe he shouldn't have been, but how mature you are as a player. Look how happy people were with Hutton last season and now he's a trade chip. It's fine, but players have up and down years and judging Gudbranson on this season, one that he'd been injured for a decent part of, is unfair. 

 

Sign him. If he $&!#s the bed, oh well. If he doesn't, then we have a solid Willie Mitchell type defenceman who we haven't had since... Willie Mitchell.

 

It's worth the risk.


I'm not opposed to keeping him. Just the $ and term need to not be stupid.


Erik Karlsson has already won a Norris trophy. His cap hit is $6.5 M
Duncan Keith's won multiple Norris trophies. His cap hit is $5.5 M


Is Guddy close to be either of these players? Will he be in a couple years? If you believe he'll be even HALF of what those guys are then go ahead and open your wallet.

But I'm holding firm on the fact you can't pay a guy north of $5M a year just because "he's tough". You have to be very good or exceptional in at least one area of the game to be making that kind of money as a defenceman. That's just me. Not everyone agrees, obviously!



 

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