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The Gudbranson dilemma


Matt_T83

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5 minutes ago, J.R. said:

 

Yeah... that's not how that works...

 

Our current 'highest paid' D signed his extension in 2012. That's ages ago in terms of cap inflation and salary demands. It also included an NTC. Without that and or on the free market, Edler likely would have got closer to $6m+ in 2012.

 

It's 2017.

 

 




You can't say whether x player would have made more depending on the year or whatever... no one knows that. Maybe yes, maybe no. 

All we have are the $ we're looking at now. 

Do you think he's the best Defenceman on this team and therefore gets to be paid accordingly? Or not. Simple question. 

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7 minutes ago, darkpoet said:


Yep, I thought about a bridge contract and although you could say it's a bit unusual to do with a guy who has played this many games, it's also the exact reason why it may be the most prudent route to go with him.

He's making $3.5 now

2 years / $8M

He gets another cool million in his pocket, and a chance to prove he's worth any more than that. If it doesn't work out you're not carrying yet another anchor on your roster, and then you can flip him.

Seems reasonable, assuming he doesn't improve.  If he starts showing what was expected, I'd have no issue with him getting 4 or 5 yrs at 5M+

 

1M bonus is he ragdolls Keith B)

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4 minutes ago, J.R. said:

 

I'm on CDC aren't I? That should be fairly apparent ;)


I've been a member here for 14 years. Nothing surprises me either. I just do my thing. Some people like me some people hate me, most don't care (and shouldn't) ::D

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1 hour ago, stawns said:

really?  Seems to me that Sbisa is looking like a real top 4 bargain now

Probably because Sbisa has ALWAYS had stretches of decent play; which inevitably he reverts back to earth (and his normal #6 left side D self); didn't hurt Sbisa as incredibly sheltered for much of those 40 games this season.

 

Agree to disagree.

 

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1 minute ago, Harvey Spector said:

I believe Sbisa was overpaid until this year.  Now he looks like a bargain.  Considering Gudbranson is 2 years younger than Sbisa and was a top 3 pick maybe there is a possibility he hasn't reached his ceiling yet?

 

Not to mention coming to a new team, new coaches, new systems, new opponents, new conference, more travel and being injured for at least part of his paltry sample size of 30 games, while saddled to a sophomore slumping partner and a mediocre team missing it's two best D for a large chunk of those paltry 30 games...all at the geriatric age of 24.

 

Yeah, no room for improvement there.

 

INB4 the: 'But poorly done, editorialized and biased analtyiczzz!!! :frantic:'

 

:picard: 

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1 minute ago, hammertime said:

My ignored users list now consists of Deziboi and Darkpoet welcome to a pretty "exclusive" party poet. It's obvious to me you know absolutely nothing worth reading. 


^
drama queen 




[ no worries bud :P ]

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Just now, darkpoet said:


If you don't want to get boxed into a corner by simple logic, then stop be illogical?

 

You're not being logical. You'r completely ignoring inflation and current market prices and attempting to build some "best D man on the team' straw man argument and I'm not playing along.

 

Sorry.

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He deserves to be our highest paying defenceman because he's our best defenceman, or not.



One could argue that he is trending upward in such a way that his prospective rai$e reflects a surety of such (like we see with Horvat).... but it hasn't and it isn't. 

 

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36 minutes ago, darkpoet said:


Of course he did. He was serving up pucks in his own slot almost every game.

Then he did the unthinkable (not really) - he went and saw a sports psychologist. The guy always had the tools but if you're not right in the head it'll never come together.

It seems this has helped him immensely and his game is turning around, and it happened quite quickly.

I wasn't wrong about him. He was awful. Now he's not. 
Correct on both accounts.

 

 

you were in fact wrong, he was never awful. Just developing. Like almost all young players, he wasn't perfect out of the gate. Chronic complaints about developing players is a pointless pursuit. Though it may make you feel good inside when some don't pan out, which will inevitably happen.

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3 hours ago, J.R. said:

 

You're not being logical. You'r completely ignoring inflation and current market prices and attempting to build some "best D man on the team' straw man argument and I'm not playing along.

 

Sorry.


I'm using the real numbers we have available to us. 

You're making an argument based on what-if's to support your narrative.

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22 minutes ago, darkpoet said:


I'm not opposed to keeping him. Just the $ and term need to not be stupid.


Erik Karlsson has already won a Norris trophy. His cap hit is $6.5 M
Duncan Keith's won multiple Norris trophies. His cap hit is $5.5 M



Is Guddy close to be either of these players? Will he be in a couple years? If you believe he'll be even HALF of what those guys are then go ahead and open your wallet.

But I'm holding firm on the fact you can't pay a guy north of $5M a year just because "he's tough". You have to be very good or exceptional in at least one area of the game to be making that kind of money as a defenceman. That's just me. Not everyone agrees, obviously!



 

This is your argument?

 

Burrows was a 30 goal scoring threat under $2.5 million.

 

Murray won a cup in net for the pens last year under $1.5 million

 

Wade Redden was making almost $7 million

 

Scott Gomez was making $7.35 million a year

 

GMs will pay players what they want not what they're worth.  Karlsson and Keith signed sweetheart deals long term due to the issues with the former CBA and the ensuing lockouts/shortened seasons.  Not mentioning Keith got $3 million in bonuses his first year, $2 million his second 1.5 his third and 1 million his 4th year this bringing his actual amount up

 

We don't know what Guddy will be yet, he's only 24.  We do know that Willie Mitchell was deemed expendable by no less than 3 different teams in his time then went on to win 2 cups as an integral top 4 on the Kings.

 

It takes time, not money

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Just now, butters said:

 

you were in fact wrong, he was never awful. Just developing. Like almost all young players, he wasn't perfect out of the gate. Chronic complaints about developing players is a pointless pursuit. Though it may make you feel good inside when some don't pan out, which will inevitably happen.


Actually I feel good because he IS panning out. 

Just call em like I see em. 

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1 minute ago, darkpoet said:


I'm using the real numbers we have available to us. 

You're making an argument based on what-if's to support your narrative.

I'm the illogical one? My dad told me never to argue with a woman.... it's clear he was correct. lol

 

I'm sorry but inflation and current market prices are not some intangible 'what-if's'. 

 

Nice sexist remark BTW. That's a nice addition to your work here today.

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4 minutes ago, darkpoet said:


I'm using the real numbers we have available to us. 

You're making an argument based on what-if's to support your narrative.

I'm the illogical one? My dad told me never to argue with a woman.... it's clear he was correct. lol

I think that says way more about you than the person you're arguing with. 

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2 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

This is your argument?

 

Burrows was a 30 goal scoring threat under $2.5 million.

 

Murray won a cup in net for the pens last year under $1.5 million

 

Wade Redden was making almost $7 million

 

Scott Gomez was making $7.35 million a year

 

GMs will pay players what they want not what they're worth.  Karlsson and Keith signed sweetheart deals long term due to the issues with the former CBA and the ensuing lockouts/shortened seasons.  Not mentioning Keith got $3 million in bonuses his first year, $2 million his second 1.5 his third and 1 million his 4th year this bringing his actual amount up

 

We don't know what Guddy will be yet, he's only 24.  We do know that Willie Mitchell was deemed expendable by no less than 3 different teams in his time then went on to win 2 cups as an integral top 4 on the Kings.

 

It takes time, not money


You're making my point for me

All of those guys PROVED they were worth it or were otherwise trending way up. they were rewarded for that. 

Sometimes, you see guys who are almost paid retroactively (as in Burrows) and others who management see as "sure things" (as in possibly Horvat) and will pay them based on a surety of their calculations and assumptions

If Benning sees Guddy as one of these guys then power to him, and lets hope he's not wrong because every mistake in that regard at this stage means the rebuild takes even longer. I get there's always risk involved but come on guys.... $5+M?   REALLY?


 

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