[Poll] The 5th Pick of 2017 Draft

[MattJVD]

On 30/04/2017 at 7:49 PM, drummerboy said:

I don't know why, but I just can't get behind Glass.  

 

I wouldn't be opposed to Vilardi. 

A summer with Horvats skating coach, and this kid could be amazing.  

 

For me though, I just can't get over the potential of Liljegrin.  

This kid could easily become the best offensive Dman this team has ever had.  

 

Liljegrin Juolevi. 

 

Yup.  That's it right there. 

The memories of Tanner Glass?

[aGENT]

22 minutes ago, Hutton Wink said:

They can't discern top prospects, but are able to pick out guys like Tryamkin, Gaudette, Brisebois, Zhukenov, Jasek, McKenzie, etc. in the later rounds?

D'at Jim-Bob sho' is dumb!

[messier's_elbow]

1 hour ago, Wolfgang Durst said:

What specifically makes you believe that JB is skilled at evaluating Young Talent?

His selections in 2014 draft did not turn out well (Jared Mc Cann, Linden Vey) and there is still a big question mark behind Jake Virtanen (6 Overall, selected by JB). A proven record of success in selecting young Players looks pretty much different.  

JB is decent/good at drafting but I think he's a bit overrated. He got Boeser which was a masterful pick and Demko which was a beauty as well. Gaudette looks good but the jury is still out. Tryamkin was a great pick but they messed that up so I'm not counting him. Other then those guys it's been nothing special. 

[aGENT]

Just now, messier's_elbow said:

JB is decent/good at drafting but I think he's a bit overrated. He got Boeser which was a masterful pick and Demko which was a beauty as well. Gaudette looks good but the jury is still out. Tryamkin was a great pick but they messed that up so I'm not counting him. Other then those guys it's been nothing special. 

Real scouting ability shows more so in the later rounds (or picking late in the first). This year will require a bit more ability in the early first in the first due to it being so flat. 

 

But really it's FAR too early to declare Benning good/bad in the first (or any) round but so far it's looking pretty good IMO other than Virtanen stumbling out of the gate (but still with plenty of time to recover).

 

Virtanen (if he recovers as he appears on track to do), Boeser, McCann-to-Gudbranson, Juolevi is solid (if unspectacular!!!) picking. Add his later round finds and there's little to complain about IMO.

[D.B Cooper]

21 minutes ago, MattJVD said:

The memories of Tanner Glass?

I wouldn't be surprised if my subconscious is making me dislike him because of Tanner.  

I really liked Tanners hustle tho.  

 

I guess i also dislike people taking about how big this kids family is and how he will end up growing to 6'4.  

I just don't like false hopes I guess. 

 

Kinda like the the people who thought Jordan Subban was going to grow.  

 

 

I gotta say, the more I hear about the Glass kid, the more I like him tho.  

He seems to be able to put up points. 

If that can translate to the NHL, great!

 

I think I am still going all in for Liljegrin though.    His potential is out of this world.  

99.9% of people just cannot skate like that.   

He D game isn't toooo bad.  

He still had a decent season considering how sick he was.  

Before the mono, he was in talks about going 1,2,3 overall.  

The kid got SUPER SICK and started to drop in the rankings.    

 

If I'm JB going into the draft, I finish building from the net out before really worrying about my forwards.  

Dmen take longer to develop anyway. 

Next years draft has a handful of for real franchise players in it, and we are going to be picking top 5 again. 

 

If we pick Liljegrin, and land top 3-5 next year, our rebuild is almost complete and we have one of the best future Dcore in the game. 

[D.B Cooper]

10 minutes ago, J.R. said:

Real scouting ability shows more so in the later rounds (or picking late in the first). This year will require a bit more ability in the early first in the first due to it being so flat. 

 

But really it's FAR too early to declare Benning good/bad in the first (or any) round but so far it's looking pretty good IMO other than Virtanen stumbling out of the gate (but still with plenty of time to recover).

 

Virtanen (if he recovers as he appears on track to do), Boeser, McCann-to-Gudbranson, Juolevi is solid (if unspectacular!!!) picking. Add his later round finds and there's little to complain about IMO.

I actually really like JBs drafting in the first round.    

Sure Virtanen could be doing better, but I'm willing to wait another 2-3 years to really complain about him. 

I still think the kid figures it out and starts kicking ass in a 2nd, 3rd line role.  Smashing people and putting up 20 goals.  

Id be stoked on that.  

 

I dont think you can bash a early round pick until until they have played for atleast 2 full NHL seasons.  

 

Im not going to complain about my eggs being too runny before it has even been cracked.  

 

People are too impatient these days.   

[messier's_elbow]

17 minutes ago, J.R. said:

Real scouting ability shows more so in the later rounds (or picking late in the first). This year will require a bit more ability in the early first in the first due to it being so flat. 

 

But really it's FAR too early to declare Benning good/bad in the first (or any) round but so far it's looking pretty good IMO other than Virtanen stumbling out of the gate (but still with plenty of time to recover).

 

Virtanen (if he recovers as he appears on track to do), Boeser, McCann-to-Gudbranson, Juolevi is solid (if unspectacular!!!) picking. Add his later round finds and there's little to complain about IMO.

Hmm yeah there's nothing to really complain about, but he's not the drafting genius some make him out to be. He  looks good compared to Gillis and Nonis. Bostons drafting without him hasn't been that bad besides 2015 (wtf) Pasternak and Carlo were great picks. It just annoys me when people either bash him unfairly or over praise him. He's good but not great.

[Rollieo Del Fuego]

1 hour ago, Warhippy said:

Just for comparison RE Vilardi:

 

Horvat made the Canucks out of training camp as a 19-year-old to start the 2014-15 season despite a shoulder injury suffered on a hit from Edmonton's Tyler Pitlick in a pre-season game. He eventually made his season and NHL debut on November 4th in a game against the Avalanche. He has been a solid presence in the Vancouver lineup as a rookie; providing supplementary offense and sound play on both ends despite a limited role. Long-term he projects as an ideal third-line center in the NHL. Horvat could find himself on a team’s top six -- as the sandpaper on an offensively-gifted line. He could be lethal in that role as he has the hands and nose for the net to take advantage of the dirty areas.
 

his speed and quickness have notably improved as he appears a tad lighter on his skates – even though he still needs to develop his agility and use his edges more effectively .. a low-maintenance player and sound draft pick whose game is somewhat comparable to that of Boone Jenner, a Columbus second-rounder last summer.”

 

While he's not going to blow anyone away with his skating and shooting, his hockey IQ is outstanding—Horvat has a knack for outworking the opposition for 50-50 pucks and then finding open teammates with slick passes.

 

 

The worst-case projection for Horvat is an above-average third-line center. Given his tenacity and willingness to go to war for his teammates, he could eventually slot in as a No. 2 center, providing the grit and sandpaper for his more talented teammates. Role-wise, think Justin Abdelkader with the Detroit Red Wings or Dustin Brown with the Los Angeles Kings.

 

Now Vilardi:

 

A puck-possessing workaholic with skilled hands and outstanding awareness. A right-shot forward, Vilardi (6-3, 201) has excellent hockey sense and puck-handling ability, is very composed with the puck and able to influence the game in all three zones.

 

A dynamic and often brilliant offensive attacker…has skilled hands and outstanding awareness…looks to set up his linemates with timely passes, but can also finish off the play when the opportunity is there…has nice size and uses it to protect the puck…has a quick jump and agility on his feet, but is not really a speed demon screaming up the ice…plays aggressively both when his team does and does not have the puck; often hunting it down and stripping it from his opponent."

 

“The Windsor Spitfire is a slick and skilled offensive centre with high-end hockey sense who excels at making plays but can also finish them. Vilardi isn’t a high-end or pretty skater, but it’s not a weakness either. His strength on the puck, skill and smarts are noteworthy.”

 

Cerebral playmaker and student of the game blessed with exceptional puck skills and the size to enhance them. Vilardi has played wing most of his pre-draft season, but he’s a natural center who kills penalties and is used in all critical game situations. He owns an deadly shot in both accuracy and velocity, and his long reach doesn’t precent him from finishing within close proximity of the goal. You can make a strong argument for Vilardi being this draft’s best stickhandler, and he maintains control of the puck regardless of whether his zone entries are calm or violent. He is a gangly skater with average foot speed from a mobility standpoint, but his long reach when combined with his phenomenal IQ makes him difficult to contain off the rush. Vilardi plays with bite and doesn’t back down from a challenge, He will stand up for his teammates and displays leadership qualities despite being one of the younger players on a veteran team. There aren’t many players in this draft with legitimate top line upside, but Vilardi is certainly one of them.

==================================================================================================================

 

Now, I understand people continue to worry about things about VIlardi.  He's a winger, he's not a great skater, no 1st line upside etc.  He is 3 weeks away from being to young for this draft, had 13 different line pairings this year, 61 points in 49 games on the 2nd and some times 3rd line (Horvat at 17 had 61 points in 67 on a stacked London team) he is almost 6 foot 3 200 pounds which is larger than Horvat in his draft year and is slated to be Windsors 1st line cneter next year and is a minimum of 2+ years away from the NHL (I like the development curve)

 

I can see why people are hesitant to take him the same way they are hesitant to pick anyone outside of the top 2 this draft.  But there's literally 0 downside from taking him at 5 if he's there.  If his ceiling is another Horvat, how terrible would that be honestly?  The answer is not at all.  2 1B Toews/Bergeron style centers on the same team capable of 60-70 points surrounded by solid offensive wingers.  This is pure meat and potatoes and if we're building a team to win, we're building a team that can beat/shut down Edmonton.  Vilardi is not a bad pick, anymore than Glass would be IMO.

 

Not like he's Rasmussen 

Horvat is already a great 2nd line center ....which is his floor, he is already playing as much as the Sedins and outscoring them ...so he is our first line center.

[aGENT]

12 minutes ago, messier's_elbow said:

Hmm yeah there's nothing to really complain about, but he's not the drafting genius some make him out to be. He  looks good compared to Gillis and Nonis. Bostons drafting without him hasn't been that bad besides 2015 (wtf) Pasternak and Carlo were great picks. It just annoys me when people either bash him unfairly or over praise him. He's good but not great.

As I said, the first round doesn't really speak to scouting ability. The best players NEVER go in a nice linear 1-30 in the first round. EVER. It doesn't matter how 'good' your scouting is. And then development plays a role as well. Not to mention all the other factors in a players life.

 

It's not like Benning has been taking players ranked 25 at 5 and having them fall on their faces and peak as ECHL players. Until then, people can't really complain about his scouting ability when he's drafting good players, in his available tier in the 1st and finding Tryamkin's, Demko's, Jasek's, Gaudette's, Neill's, Zhukenov's, Brisebois', Lockwood's etc later.

[messier's_elbow]

2 minutes ago, J.R. said:

As I said, the first round doesn't really speak to scouting ability. The best players NEVER go in a nice linear 1-30 in the first round. EVER. It doesn't matter how 'good' your scouting is. And then development plays a role as well. Not to mention all the other factors in a players life.

 

It's not like Benning has been taking players ranked 25 at 5 and having them fall on their faces and peak as ECHL players. Until then, people can't really complain about his scouting ability when he's drafting good players, in his available tier in the 1st and finding Tryamkin's, Demko's, Jasek's, Gaudette's, Neill's, Zhukenov's, Brisebois', Lockwood's etc later.

I agree, but throwing in Jasek and Zhukenov? They haven't done anything. 

[aGENT]

4 minutes ago, messier's_elbow said:

I agree, but throwing in Jasek and Zhukenov? They haven't done anything. 

They're both doing well in their respective leagues/national play. Haven't had much opportunity to do much more than that yet.

 

They're still both long term projects/lottery tickets but having even remote NHL potential is about all you can ask for from 4 and 6 round players short of hitting the jackpot. Zhukenov especially I think shows a fair bit of promise to be a decent player, if nothing else, in the AHL.

[JamesB]

3 hours ago, WeneedLumme said:

 

You guys are projecting. Unlike you, JB is skilled at evaluating young talent and has experience at building a cup winning team. I am sure he will make good draft picks.

It does not matter if JB is better at evaluating young talent than posters on CDC. What matters is whether he is better than other GMs, most of whom have more experience as GMs in building winning team than Benning has. So far, while with the Canucks, Benning's draft record is not terrible but it is not great either. By far the most important thing in building a Cup-winning team is getting the two or three franchise players the pretty much every Cup-winning team has. That is hard to do and the most likely way of acquiring them is with high draft picks. So far Benning has had two high draft picks and two other first round picks. In the redraft, Virtanen moves way down, almost certainly out of the first round entirely, Juolevi moves down, certainly below Tkachuk and probably below at least a few other guys. In its recent redraft the Sporting News (http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/how-would-the-2016-nhl-draft-unfold-if-we-did-it-again-today)  has Juolevi in the 13th spot. McCann moves down. Boeser moves up.

 

That is not a great record for his first round picks. He has had only one second round pick -- Demko -- who is doing well so far. But having given up so many second round picks in trades is a negative. Only one of those trades (Baertschi) has panned out in my view. That is not a good enough success ratio relative what other GMs have done with second round picks.

 

People will point to Tryamkin as a good pick. But he was available in the third round precisely because he was a high risk to stay in or return to the KHL, and that is what happened. I think it was a reasonable risk to take but it did not pan out, so that cannot be called a "success". Gaudette and Brisebois have done well given where they were drafted but obviously it is far from clear whether they well ever become good NHL players at this stage.

 

I realize that a lot of people remaining active on CDC want to believe in Benning so they make the decision to have faith in his draft picks. But his drafting record with the Canucks so far is mediocre at best. The only recent pick who has clearly established himself as a very good NHL player is Horvat, and he was picked by Gillis. The best recent low round pick in the system is probably Hutton, and he was also picked by Gillis.

[spook007]

52 minutes ago, drummerboy said:

I wouldn't be surprised if my subconscious is making me dislike him because of Tanner.  

I really liked Tanners hustle tho.  

 

I guess i also dislike people taking about how big this kids family is and how he will end up growing to 6'4.  

I just don't like false hopes I guess. 

 

Kinda like the the people who thought Jordan Subban was going to grow.  

 

 

I gotta say, the more I hear about the Glass kid, the more I like him tho.  

He seems to be able to put up points. 

If that can translate to the NHL, great!

 

I think I am still going all in for Liljegrin though.    His potential is out of this world.  

99.9% of people just cannot skate like that.   

He D game isn't toooo bad.  

He still had a decent season considering how sick he was.  

Before the mono, he was in talks about going 1,2,3 overall.  

The kid got SUPER SICK and started to drop in the rankings.    

 

If I'm JB going into the draft, I finish building from the net out before really worrying about my forwards.  

Dmen take longer to develop anyway. 

Next years draft has a handful of for real franchise players in it, and we are going to be picking top 5 again. 

 

If we pick Liljegrin, and land top 3-5 next year, our rebuild is almost complete and we have one of the best future Dcore in the game. 

Also like Liljegren.

I am one of these highlighted. The difference between Glass and Subban is, that even if Glass never grew anymore, he would still likely be able to eventually play i the NHL. So if he grows it would be an added bonus. 

If we don't get the top picks, I think these are the things, you have to gamble on. Just like gambling on Liljegren becoming the kind of player, he was projected to be before his illness. 

Actually the more I read, the harder I find it to make up my mind. Glad I'm not the one making the pick... JB need to make a good pick.

[Honey-Badger-Hansen]

Originally wanted Mittelstadt but seen some good areguments against that pick in this thread so I chose Glass. Not too confident Vilardi will still be on the board, but I'd take Vilardi if available. I'm happy with anyone not named Rasmussen.

 

As far as a year to drop from 2-5 draft position goes, this one doesn't sting so badly. Very interesting 3-7 range with centres not clearly winning in talent, but rather having different strengths to their game. Explains why I've changed my mind 10 times in the last couple days. Very exciting!

[aGENT]

25 minutes ago, JamesB said:

In its recent redraft the Sporting News (http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/how-would-the-2016-nhl-draft-unfold-if-we-did-it-again-today)

Like many CDC armchair GM's on here, that list seems highly skewed to players who've made it to the NHL sooner, not necessarily who will be better.

 

This comment from the article seems to sum things up nicely:

Quote

Pascal Riou

In 5 years. It'll be completely different.

 

[Darius]

2 hours ago, JamesB said:

It does not matter if JB is better at evaluating young talent than posters on CDC. What matters is whether he is better than other GMs, most of whom have more experience as GMs in building winning team than Benning has. So far, while with the Canucks, Benning's draft record is not terrible but it is not great either. By far the most important thing in building a Cup-winning team is getting the two or three franchise players the pretty much every Cup-winning team has. That is hard to do and the most likely way of acquiring them is with high draft picks. So far Benning has had two high draft picks and two other first round picks. In the redraft, Virtanen moves way down, almost certainly out of the first round entirely, Juolevi moves down, certainly below Tkachuk and probably below at least a few other guys. In its recent redraft the Sporting News (http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/how-would-the-2016-nhl-draft-unfold-if-we-did-it-again-today)  has Juolevi in the 13th spot. McCann moves down. Boeser moves up.

 

That is not a great record for his first round picks. He has had only one second round pick -- Demko -- who is doing well so far. But having given up so many second round picks in trades is a negative. Only one of those trades (Baertschi) has panned out in my view. That is not a good enough success ratio relative what other GMs have done with second round picks.

 

People will point to Tryamkin as a good pick. But he was available in the third round precisely because he was a high risk to stay in or return to the KHL, and that is what happened. I think it was a reasonable risk to take but it did not pan out, so that cannot be called a "success". Gaudette and Brisebois have done well given where they were drafted but obviously it is far from clear whether they well ever become good NHL players at this stage.

 

I realize that a lot of people remaining active on CDC want to believe in Benning so they make the decision to have faith in his draft picks. But his drafting record with the Canucks so far is mediocre at best. The only recent pick who has clearly established himself as a very good NHL player is Horvat, and he was picked by Gillis. The best recent low round pick in the system is probably Hutton, and he was also picked by Gillis.

But unlike the coilers and Toronto JB hasnt had the luxury of draft lottery balls helping him out.  I suspect our assessment of his first round draft picks would be far different if the Canucks held their draft position (never mind even moving up a spot).

 

Also, regarding Virtanen. That pick was exactly what this team needed - a big powerful kid that can skate faster than anyone in the draft class, hit and score.  Its easy to stomp on JB in retrospect - and its easy to write off the kid already - but lets not forget many scouting agencies had this kid in the top 10. It wasnt like JB went off the board and pulled a Jankowski out of the hat.  Only Button had him out of the first round, as far as I know, and if we rely on Button as an authority then we also have to accept that 4 of JBs picks made his "top 50 young players in the world that are not in the NHL list".

 

In the end I think its way too early to judge the guy.  Hes had like 3 years. No GM is perfect, even the mighty hawks powerhouse management drafted Kyle Beach in the upper first round.  JB inherited an absolute mess - including multiple NTCs- a virtual non existant cupboard of young players that was an absolute embarrassment.  No other team drafted worse than the Canucks the 10 years between Kesler and Bo.   The team had coughed up multiple second and latter round picks to make playoff runs.  The team had practically no talent up front  between guys Bo's age and the Sedin's age.  Who do you think could have turned this mess around any faster?

 

 

[Warhippy]

1 hour ago, Rollieo Del Fuego said:

Horvat is already a great 2nd line center ....which is his floor, he is already playing as much as the Sedins and outscoring them ...so he is our first line center.

Bingo!

 

And he was pegged as a 3rd line center at the draft the same way Kesler was the same way Vilardi is

 

So no harm in drafting him

[CRAZY_4_NAZZY]

 

Biggest thing that stood out for me that Shane Malloy shared was that Glass has the best 5v5 stats compared to all the prospects in the draft, and he isn't just a player who scores at home, but got 45% on the road, and much of his points reflected upon back to back games, playing tough opposition on a nightly basis.

[guntrix]

1 hour ago, Hutton Wink said:

They can't discern top prospects, but are able to pick out guys like Tryamkin, Gaudette, Brisebois, Zhukenov, Jasek, McKenzie, etc. in the later rounds?

None of those guys have become first team regulars though. I personally have my doubts that guys like Jasek, Zhukenov, McKenzie and Brisebois ever make the team full time. 

 

Tryamkin was close. One of the core reasons why he fell in the draft was the risk of him going back to Russia... and that's exactly what happened. 

[S N Y P E R S 7]

I'm not getting too optimistic about this draft. I've always been optimistic - Ehlers, Boeser (worked out!), Dubois... I mean, okay, my guy for this year is Mittelstadt.

If Mittelstadt or Vilardi aren't available at #5, I'd simply say trade down to a 7-15 slot and select Elias Pettersson. Get the most value out of that pick and get some extra assets and/or draft picks back. Pettersson is the go-to if Mittelstadt and Vilardi are gone because, otherwise, anybody chosen at that 5 spot could be considered a "reach." 

Pettersson is an excellent hockey player that has the smarts, competitiveness, and individual skills that can't be taught. You can control only so much but you can't control a player's drive/work ethic or attitude. That makes him coachable and a player that'd be able to slide into the system with ease. Pettersson checks all those boxes - and he's played with Dahlén. Give him a couple years and he'll be golden.