Jack Rathbone | #3 | D

[-Vintage Canuck-]

 

[-Vintage Canuck-]

 

[VegasCanuck]

So, I think Rathbone will be much better prepared next season in camp. What I saw of him in the Canucks line up early this season was, as fast as he is, he wasn't prepared for the NHL pace of NHL level forwards. He struggled with controlling them on the forecheck and got overwhelmed because he wasn't thinking the game at the level he needed. The pace shook his self confidence.

 

I think after the pace of the AHL playoffs and his experience this season in the NHL, we'll see a much more prepared and confident player. The question then is, with everyone we have on the left side, does he still fit, or is he better to be traded somewhere he'll have more opportunity, for an asset that fills a need in our lineup.

 

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, VegasCanuck said:

So, I think Rathbone will be much better prepared next season in camp. What I saw of him in the Canucks line up early this season was, as fast as he is, he wasn't prepared for the NHL pace of NHL level forwards. He struggled with controlling them on the forecheck and got overwhelmed because he wasn't thinking the game at the level he needed. The pace shook his self confidence.

 

I think after the pace of the AHL playoffs and his experience this season in the NHL, we'll see a much more prepared and confident player. The question then is, with everyone we have on the left side, does he still fit, or is he better to be traded somewhere he'll have more opportunity, for an asset that fills a need in our lineup.

 

As with Woo, Jack is another guy who needs to clear waivers to be sent down next season. He's either on the club or he's plucked off waivers. 

[Ray_Cathode]

20 minutes ago, VegasCanuck said:

So, I think Rathbone will be much better prepared next season in camp. What I saw of him in the Canucks line up early this season was, as fast as he is, he wasn't prepared for the NHL pace of NHL level forwards. He struggled with controlling them on the forecheck and got overwhelmed because he wasn't thinking the game at the level he needed. The pace shook his self confidence.

 

I think after the pace of the AHL playoffs and his experience this season in the NHL, we'll see a much more prepared and confident player. The question then is, with everyone we have on the left side, does he still fit, or is he better to be traded somewhere he'll have more opportunity, for an asset that fills a need in our lineup.

 

Remember that at the beginning of 5he season there was no visible system in Van. That is particularly rough on puck moving D, they need to know where their outlets are likely to be. Hughes is an amazing player for his ability to scan the ice, and so quick to escape long enough to improve his options. But even Hughes had an awful year before he developed those skills. 
 

I find it interesting that Colliton used a 2D pp last night in Abby with Rathbone and Wolanin on the ice together - pairing a great playmaker with a shooter. By the last couple of pp’s, they had that sorted, and it resulted in Rathbone’s tally from Wolanin.

[VegasCanuck]

2 hours ago, Alflives said:

As with Woo, Jack is another guy who needs to clear waivers to be sent down next season. He's either on the club or he's plucked off waivers. 

I think Woo makes the team next season, I think Rathbone is the odd man out this summer, not because he doesn't have talent, but because I don't think he fits as we have too much depth on the left side. Unless we buyout OEL, OEL and Hughes are our top 2 on the left. 

 

Maybe we could engineer a trade with someone like Boston?

 

To Boston:

Garland

Rathbone

 

To Vancouver:

Lysell

2023 4th round pick

Mike Reilly (Cap dump - balances out Garland for next season)

 

Returns 2 guys to Boston

 

Thoughts?

[Bobby James]

2 hours ago, VegasCanuck said:

Maybe we could engineer a trade with someone like Boston?

 

To Boston:

Garland

Rathbone

 

To Vancouver:

Lysell

2023 4th round pick

Mike Reilly (Cap dump - balances out Garland for next season)

 

Returns 2 guys to Boston

 

Thoughts?

I'd be open to a trade like this. Garland I think makes sense for Van to move, but can still produce well and will do even better on a good team like Boston. Rathbone hasn't clicked yet (even though he should likely have gotten more games this year in Van), so maybe while he has a little value left time to move him. 

 

Lysell is a solid prospect and Reilly is actually supposedly pretty good, but just no space on the Bruins and they would likely want to clear the cap space. 

[canucklehead44]

On 4/20/2023 at 7:15 PM, Bobby James said:

I'd be open to a trade like this. Garland I think makes sense for Van to move, but can still produce well and will do even better on a good team like Boston. Rathbone hasn't clicked yet (even though he should likely have gotten more games this year in Van), so maybe while he has a little value left time to move him. 

 

Lysell is a solid prospect and Reilly is actually supposedly pretty good, but just no space on the Bruins and they would likely want to clear the cap space. 

pre Hirose and Wolanin I thought Reilly could be a good option but now the left side is a bit crowded. I can see Garland being moved for a bottom 6 center with a pick going either way depending on quality and cap 

[-Vintage Canuck-]

 

[stawns]

He played great last night, but also had some atrocious turn overs in his own end.  There is no denying he is a dynamic offensive dman though

[Eddie]

Yeah he is so smart offensively and his shot is a huge weapon. The big problem really is that he looks just as bad in the AHL as the NHL - just too many details to his game that need to be tidied up.

[Ray_Cathode]

On 4/20/2023 at 11:08 AM, VegasCanuck said:

So, I think Rathbone will be much better prepared next season in camp. What I saw of him in the Canucks line up early this season was, as fast as he is, he wasn't prepared for the NHL pace of NHL level forwards. He struggled with controlling them on the forecheck and got overwhelmed because he wasn't thinking the game at the level he needed. The pace shook his self confidence.

 

I think after the pace of the AHL playoffs and his experience this season in the NHL, we'll see a much more prepared and confident player. The question then is, with everyone we have on the left side, does he still fit, or is he better to be traded somewhere he'll have more opportunity, for an asset that fills a need in our lineup.

 

I didn’t see Rathbone get much pk time before, but he has been taking a regular pk shift now, and he’s been out in the past couple minutes to protect leads. That is good.

[Bobby James]

Yeah it looks like the offensive skills are there and could be a really valuable asset. I think there are NHL teams that could use his offense, but give him sheltered minutes in his own end.

 

Unfortunately we already have Hughes who is showing he is great everywhere and after that guys like OEL, Hronek and maybe even Hirose are solid puck movers that could put up points. This team needs solid Dman at the moment, so Rathbone might be the odd man out in Van unless he has a big offseason and comes back decently improved in his own end. 

[Ray_Cathode]

11 hours ago, Bobby James said:

Yeah it looks like the offensive skills are there and could be a really valuable asset. I think there are NHL teams that could use his offense, but give him sheltered minutes in his own end.

 

Unfortunately we already have Hughes who is showing he is great everywhere and after that guys like OEL, Hronek and maybe even Hirose are solid puck movers that could put up points. This team needs solid Dman at the moment, so Rathbone might be the odd man out in Van unless he has a big offseason and comes back decently improved in his own end. 

Over this past year, OEL was pretty much the worst defenceman in the NHL. Other than his massive contract, what justification is there for playing him? I thought the objective is to win. That’s not just about Rathbone, on the left D after Hughes, a couple of other D are affected by this, I.e. Wolanin, Hirose, and defenders who play either side - Burroughs and Woo, for instance. Now, supposedly, OEL was injured at a national tournament. Well, if he was, why is he playing? He was entirely a liability: put him on the LTIR. Heal him up and gain the advantage over his cap space. We will find out this fall if that was truly the problem. It does not make any sense to play an injured player clearly unable to play at a satisfactory level. Playing OEL for 46 games Ayn we’ll be the reason we missed the playoffs. Demko also was clearly not physically right for the first part of the season. He was playing injured. Why? Pearson appears to believe that his situation was not handled medically properly - what is going on here?

[AnthonyG]

7 hours ago, Ray_Cathode said:

Over this past year, OEL was pretty much the worst defenceman in the NHL. Other than his massive contract, what justification is there for playing him? I thought the objective is to win. That’s not just about Rathbone, on the left D after Hughes, a couple of other D are affected by this, I.e. Wolanin, Hirose, and defenders who play either side - Burroughs and Woo, for instance. Now, supposedly, OEL was injured at a national tournament. Well, if he was, why is he playing? He was entirely a liability: put him on the LTIR. Heal him up and gain the advantage over his cap space. We will find out this fall if that was truly the problem. It does not make any sense to play an injured player clearly unable to play at a satisfactory level. Playing OEL for 46 games Ayn we’ll be the reason we missed the playoffs. Demko also was clearly not physically right for the first part of the season. He was playing injured. Why? Pearson appears to believe that his situation was not handled medically properly - what is going on here?

Curious what metrics you use to confidently say OEL was the worst dman in the league? 
You watch all 32 teams 82 games?

Trash goaltending has no impact at all in any of the numbers you look at to render your verdict of “pretty much the worst dman in the NHL”?

Edited April 25, 2023 by AnthonyG

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

1 hour ago, AnthonyG said:

Curious what metrics you use to confidently say OEL was the worst dman in the league? 
You watch all 32 teams 82 games?

Trash goaltending has no impact at all in any of the numbers you look at to render your verdict of “pretty much the worst dman in the NHL”?

Yeah, “worst Dman in the league” is pretty unfair. It’s debatable whether or not he was even the worst Dman on the Canucks (among the regulars with 40+ games).

 

On the other hand, it would be difficult to disprove that, at least statistically, OEL was very clearly a negative value asset and sub-replacement level player in 2022-23.

 

And, obviously, that’s not good.

 

But there are plenty of worse performing and worse value defencemen in the NHL, no matter what metrics you want to use.

 

And the previous season, OEL was actually pretty good. Not $8.25M good. Or even $7.26 (his salary after retention) good. But probably somewhere in the neighborhood of $5M value on the ice, which isn’t bad for a ~30 year old, elite (at times) in their (mid-20s) prime, defenceman on a UFA contract (most players in that age group, and with similar pedigrees, are overpaid, just by virtue of how the NHL market is set up, and they will tend not to return positive value, as in surplus to salary, most seasons).

 

I suppose the question (and this may get things back on the road toward talking about Rathbone) is whether or not 2022-23 OEL or 2021-22 OEL is the player we’re more likely to see in 2023-24?

 

The 2021-22 version, while still overpaid, is at least a player that probably provides more value on ice than any of the Canucks’ other options (whether players currently in the system or available via the market) to replace him. That version of OEL is far from the worst Dman in the league. In fact, he’s probably a top-4 defenceman on most teams.

 

The 2022-23 version, however, is not even “replacement level” in the NHL. This is pretty clear in the numbers. And also in the eye test. Even the college free agents and AHL journeyman who passed through the lineup seemed to provide better results for the Canucks. And statistically, last season’s version of OEL offered negative impacts almost universally across most metrics.
 

When it comes to that 2022-23 version of OEL, the team is arguably better served by simply removing him from the lineup and replacing him with almost any other option (including some of the guys, like Rathbone and others, currently playing in the AHL).

 

I don’t, however, necessarily believe that OEL’s 2022-23 season is an accurate representation of his current player value or projected performance for next season. There are lots of reasons that might explain his poor results this year. And also reasons to expect he’ll be better next season. Though almost certainly not better enough to justify his $8.35M ($7.26M) salary. But quite possibly better enough to justify his place in the lineup (like we saw from him in 2021-22), ahead of other options (whether players currently in the Canucks’ system or any new acquisitions available in this year’s market).

Edited April 25, 2023 by SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME

[AnthonyG]

11 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

Yeah, “worst Dman in the league” is pretty unfair. It’s debatable whether or not he was even the worst Dman on the Canucks (among the regulars with 40+ games).

 

On the other hand, it would be difficult to disprove that, at least statistically, OEL was very clearly a negative value asset and sub-replacement level player in 2022-23.

 

And, obviously, that’s not good.

 

But there are plenty of worse performing and worse value defencemen in the NHL, no matter what metrics you want to use.

 

And the previous season, OEL was actually pretty good. Not $8.25M good. Or even $7.26 (his salary after retention) good. But probably somewhere in the neighborhood of $5M value on the ice, which isn’t bad for a ~30 year old, elite (at times) in their (mid-20s) prime, defenceman on a UFA contract (most players in that age group, and with similar pedigrees, are overpaid, just by virtue of how the NHL market is set up, and they will tend not to return positive value, as in surplus to salary, most seasons).

 

I suppose the question (and this may get things back on the road toward talking about Rathbone) is whether or not 2022-23 OEL or 2021-22 OEL is the player we’re more likely to see in 2023-24?

 

The 2021-22 version, while still overpaid, is at least a player that probably provides more value on ice than any of the Canucks’ other options (whether players currently in the system or available via the market) to replace him. That version of OEL is far from the worst Dman in the league. In fact, he’s probably a top-4 defenceman on most teams.

 

The 2022-23 version, however, is not even “replacement level” in the NHL. This is pretty clear in the numbers. And also in the eye test. Even the college free agents and AHL journeyman who passed through the lineup seemed to provide better results for the Canucks. And statistically, last season’s version of OEL offered negative impacts almost universally across most metrics.
 

When it comes to that 2022-23 version of OEL, the team is arguably better served by simply removing him from the lineup and replacing him with almost any other option (including some of the guys, like Rathbone and others, currently playing in the AHL).

 

I don’t, however, necessarily believe that OEL’s 2022-23 season is an accurate representation of his current player value or projected performance for next season. There are lots of reasons that might explain his poor results this year. And also reasons to expect he’ll be better next season. Though almost certainly not better enough to justify his $8.35M ($7.26M) salary. But quite possibly better enough to justify his place in the lineup (like we saw from him in 2021-22), ahead of other options (whether players currently in the Canucks’ system or any new acquisitions available in this year’s market).

10/10 thats exactly the point I wanted to make. 

 

Curious, if you know if there is some analytics site that tracks ice time in terms of time in each zone? It would be very interesting to see the exact time spent in every zone and be able to gauge how productive or how much of a liability someone is in particular zones.

[Fred65]

I might add IMO OEL is standing in the way of others better suited for todays game. I thought for the brief appearnce of both Hiroke and McWard they were better than those they are fighting to replace. I could see aftr maybe half a season of continuous playing at the NHL level they will more than prove their worth to the club both now and certainly for the future. The question is can or will management make that happen or simply revert to the success now is the team mantra. Need to watch the decissions come September

Edited April 25, 2023 by Fred65

[AnthonyG]

36 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

The 2022-23 version, however, is not even “replacement level” in the NHL. This is pretty clear in the numbers. And also in the eye test. Even the college free agents and AHL journeyman who passed through the lineup seemed to provide better results for the Canucks. And statistically, last season’s version of OEL offered negative impacts almost universally across most metrics.
 

When it comes to that 2022-23 version of OEL, the team is arguably better served by simply removing him from the lineup and replacing him with almost any other option (including some of the guys, like Rathbone and others, currently playing in the AHL).

Mind sharing somecnumbers? I’m just curious to see what these numbers are. Or if you have a link for where you do your research?

 

I appreciate your overall response, well written and a very fair/non bias summary

 

[Gawdzukes]

On 4/20/2023 at 12:18 PM, Alflives said:

As with Woo, Jack is another guy who needs to clear waivers to be sent down next season. He's either on the club or he's plucked off waivers. 

Watch all the idiots who don't understand waivers and depth players complain if he gets picked of waivers like the Great Gadjovich.