[Proposal] Turning the Corner And Competing

[underrated]

Realisically Benning will likely try to stay the course, at least an extra year.  But this is a proposal where the Canucks try to turn the corner now.  It's definitely contingent on convincing the two top UFA's (Karlsson and Panarin) on this plan that is built around competing for the cup during Petterson's two remaining rookie contract years, with a couple key trade additions as well.

These contracts aren't the amounts I would want to pay, but likely the cost that it would take to actually sign them.
SIGNINGS
Sign Karlsson - 7 years @ 12 million (hopefully less but likely that much to make it happen in Vancouver).

Sign Panarin - 7 years @ 8 million
Re-sign Edler -  3 years @ 5 million per year
Re-sign Boeser - 8 years @ 6.5 million per year
Re-sign Hutton and/or Tryamkin
Bring up Hughes

That would leave us with this roster before any trades.
Panarin - Petterson - Boeser
Leivo/Goldobin - Horvat - Virtanen
Roussel - Sutter/Gaudette - Eriksson
Leivo/Goldobin - Beagle - Granlund
LTIR: Baertschi
Not in that lineup: Spooner, Pearson (likely buried in minors for cap purposes)

Edler - Karlsson
Hughes - Tanev
Hutton/Tryamkin - Stecher
Biega

Markstrom
Demko

Overall I would assess this team has having a very good top line.  The main weakness is the second line wingers as Goldobin/Leivo/Virtanen could all play there but none are top players.  We have a good third and fourth line with veterans and defensive minded players.  Adding Karlsson makes that top defensive pairing elite, even with an aging Edler.  The second defense lineup really depends on Hughes development and Tanev's health but could be good.  Quite a good third pairing, who could move up to the second pairing if needed depending on Hughes play, and Tanev's health.

 

The main need via trade is to upgrade our second line wingers.

Trade ideas: 

Trade #1
Pearson (cap dump), Virtanen, 2019 second round pick, 2020 fourth round pick to the New York Rangers for Chris Kreider - Try to extend him for around $5 mil per year (maybe try to include Pearson in the package going back for cap purposes).

Reasoning: New York is in a rebuild so they add two picks as well as a young winger in return for Kreider.  For the Canucks, Kreider has 47 points in 63 games this year with 26 goals and +7 on a bad team.  He's a really good scoring winger who's defensively responsible with a lot of size at 6'3.  He's only 27 years old.  He's exactly the guy we should be trading for. It may cost more than Virtanen, 2nd, 4th for him.  But this was my attempt.  He has one year left on his deal so we try to re-sign him.

Trade #2
Ryan Spooner (cap dump), Goldobin, 2020 first round pick (conditional on games played. Second round pick if under 50 games in 2019-2020 season, 3rd round pick if under 30 games in 2019-2020 season) for Corey Perry (50% salary retained)

Reasoning: Anaheim is near the bottom of the standings, and have a couple albatross contracts for aging veterans on their books.  It's time for them to rebuild but with Perry's injury this year, it may be hard to find a taker.  With this deal, the Ducks get a young player in Goldobin, a potentially top draft pick depending on Perry's play, and $4 million in savings in the second year as Spooner's contract ends after one year, but Perry's after two years.  It's not a huge haul but he is a hard contract to deal, and if he plays well, they will end up with a top draft pick.
For the Canucks they add a hard nose captain material veteran to mentor the young guys, play hard, and contribute goals on our second line.  He's only signed for two more years so his contract ends when Petterson needs a new contract, which works perfectly.  If he is injured a lot, Leivo plays on the second line.  In this scenario the Canucks are all-in for trying to win the cup in the next couple years.

Trade #3
Sutter for a second round pick (third if needed) to a contending team in the East.

Reasoning: cap space

Final roster:
Panarin 8 - Petterson 2.85 (with bonuses) - Boeser 6.5
Kreider 4.625 - Horvat 5.5 - Perry 4.3125
Roussel 3 - Gaudette 1.5 - Eriksson 6
Leivo 1.5 - Beagle 3 - Granlund 1.5
LTIR: Baertschi
Buried in minors: Schaller

Edler 5 - Karlsson 12
Hughes 2 (with bonuses) - Tanev 4.5
Hutton/Tryamkin 3 - Stecher 2.325
Biega .825

Markstrom 3.67
Demko .925

NHL projected 2019-2020 salary cap: $83 million
Total cap hit: $82.5
It's fairly tight against the cap even though we are under it.  If needed, we package picks with Eriksson to get rid of his contract, even if we retain salary.  I'd prefer to keep him on our third line if we can make it work financially.  The other option is to not keep Hutton and sign a cheaper third pairing defenseman.

Thoughts?

[naslund.is.king]

[cory40]

They probably could stay with the plan. Draft your players. Any stupid signings will cost us talent in a few short years. You want to drive the price of your players up bring in expensive free agents. The core is almost here. They will be fine and they are turning the corner. Might not be any flashy new toys this year. 

[Noble 6]

Nice job with all the numbers managing the cap space. 

 

I think some of the signings are a little off. Boeser would likely get around 7.5 million per on an 8 year deal and Panarin would probably need 9-10 million per to come to Vancouver. Karlsson signing is pretty accurate though if it happened. 

 

Rangers fans seem to love Kreider. He's what we want Virtanen to be, so I think they'd want more for him. They could probably get more for him at the next deadline too. I don't think it's worth it for us at that point. I also just wouldn't do the Perry trade, but I'm in favour of dumping Sutter this offseason. 

[Fanuck]

18 minutes ago, cory40 said:

They probably could stay with the plan. Draft your players. Any stupid signings will cost us talent in a few short years. You want to drive the price of your players up bring in expensive free agents. The core is almost here. They will be fine and they are turning the corner. Might not be any flashy new toys this year. 

^ This.

 

I get that people think Karlsson will be an impact player - and he probably would be for several years while our core becomes fully developed.  But then we'd be stuck with his contract (and undoubted FULL NTC/NMC) for five or six years after he becomes another Seabrook. 

 

 

[-AJ-]

I do have a feeling that if we went in on Panarin and got a good defenseman we could actually be a good team next year, but it's pretty risky seeing as it's trying to take a shortcut, which I'm very wary of. That said, I wouldn't mind one of Panarin or a good defenseman, so long as they're 30 or younger. I think we're getting close enough that we can start thinking about how we go from a playoff team to a contender over the next few years.

[D-Money]

3 minutes ago, -AJ- said:

I do have a feeling that if we went in on Panarin and got a good defenseman we could actually be a good team next year, but it's pretty risky seeing as it's trying to take a shortcut, which I'm very wary of. That said, I wouldn't mind one of Panarin or a good defenseman, so long as they're 30 or younger. I think we're getting close enough that we can start thinking about how we go from a playoff team to a contender over the next few years.

Shouldn't we start thinking about how we go from where we are to a playoff team, first?

 

I'm all for signing Karlsson if he's interested, but doubt he will be. And unless it's elite, top-end talent like that, we're better off to keep developing our own.

[Pears]

So we give up more for a washed up Perry than we do for Kreider who’s in his prime??

[-AJ-]

36 minutes ago, D-Money said:

Shouldn't we start thinking about how we go from where we are to a playoff team, first?

 

I'm all for signing Karlsson if he's interested, but doubt he will be. And unless it's elite, top-end talent like that, we're better off to keep developing our own.

We're definitely not a playoff team now, but I think we're reasonably close, depending on how good Hughes is and how our goaltending (whether it's Marky or Demko) is. A player like Panarin or Karlsson should definitely make us a playoff team and with a few more years of development for our young kids can maybe even make us a contender. Time is on our side since most of our best players are very young and still developing.

[DADDYROCK]

Continue to stock the shelves with good young talent through the draft,so when injuries show up like they always do,

we won't be crushed by not having enough talent to step up.

Re enforce the defense to be sure come the playoffs, we will be a force to be reckoned with.

[48MPHSlapShot]

At some point you have to start foccusing on trying to improve the team via something other than drafting. We have a good young core with Pettersson, Horvat, Boeser, Demko and Hughes. At some point you need to get them some help. We can't be "rebuilding" by the time Horvat is 27 years old and probably wants out due to management not willing to give them the help they need to get over the top.

[Amebushi]

I appreciate the thought, time and math that went into this proposal. I disagree with a few things. Throwing big money at two UFA’s for long term contracts seems like a recipe for losing our youth when they need to be signed. 

I do think we should chase Karlsson as #1 Dmen  just don’t come available often. Panarin is great and would boost the team but I think with the emerging core we have a cheaper alternative could be found either in house or through trade (Think Burrows with the twins). 

Personally I want to see everyone from Goldie and Virtannen to Gaudette and Mac given an opportunity to show what they can do. Bring up Hughes and see what we have. Give Demko some games and see who really has the potential and who we can offload for upgrades/picks/bags of pucks. This is still a rebuilding team and it doesn’t happen overnight. I don’t believe you can fill in rolls like #1 D, #1 winger, #2 winger all in one off season with UFA and high end trades without handcuffing your future. Let’s see what we have, talk to the big fish and make informed decisions. 

[underrated]

1 hour ago, 48MPHSlapShot said:

At some point you have to start foccusing on trying to improve the team via something other than drafting. We have a good young core with Pettersson, Horvat, Boeser, Demko and Hughes. At some point you need to get them some help. We can't be "rebuilding" by the time Horvat is 27 years old and probably wants out due to management not willing to give them the help they need to get over the top.

Agreed!  I get the approach of continuing to rebuild slowly, but at some point you have to go for it.  Maybe it's too early for the Canucks, but I think adding two top guys would be a huge boost

[canuck_in_england]

I think we're too early for signing someone like Karlsson. He's like your last piece of the puzzle when you're ready to challenge for the next few years and I don't think we're there yet. I know that means we miss out on him but we have time with this core and another scoring D will become available. We go all in when the time's right, when we know Hughes is the stud we think he's gonna be and OJ has finely hit the big time. Until these young guys have played an NHL game we can't count on anything.

[Ojibwa72]

21 hours ago, cory40 said:

They probably could stay with the plan. Draft your players. Any stupid signings will cost us talent in a few short years. You want to drive the price of your players up bring in expensive free agents. The core is almost here. They will be fine and they are turning the corner. Might not be any flashy new toys this year. 

Agree. Stay the course. One day you might have a pool like the Jets then you can compete for years after. Draft and develop is the best option.

[JeremyCuddles]

Stone got 9.5 on a re-sign with Vegas. We are getting Panarin IN free agency at 8? I dunno bout dat noise. And easy pass on Karlsson at 12mil.

[vannuck59]

On 2/28/2019 at 2:06 PM, underrated said:

Realisically Benning will likely try to stay the course, at least an extra year.  But this is a proposal where the Canucks try to turn the corner now.  It's definitely contingent on convincing the two top UFA's (Karlsson and Panarin) on this plan that is built around competing for the cup during Petterson's two remaining rookie contract years, with a couple key trade additions as well.

These contracts aren't the amounts I would want to pay, but likely the cost that it would take to actually sign them.
SIGNINGS
Sign Karlsson - 7 years @ 12 million (hopefully less but likely that much to make it happen in Vancouver).

Sign Panarin - 7 years @ 8 million
Re-sign Edler -  3 years @ 5 million per year
Re-sign Boeser - 8 years @ 6.5 million per year
Re-sign Hutton and/or Tryamkin
Bring up Hughes

That would leave us with this roster before any trades.
Panarin - Petterson - Boeser
Leivo/Goldobin - Horvat - Virtanen
Roussel - Sutter/Gaudette - Eriksson
Leivo/Goldobin - Beagle - Granlund
LTIR: Baertschi
Not in that lineup: Spooner, Pearson (likely buried in minors for cap purposes)

Edler - Karlsson
Hughes - Tanev
Hutton/Tryamkin - Stecher
Biega

Markstrom
Demko

Overall I would assess this team has having a very good top line.  The main weakness is the second line wingers as Goldobin/Leivo/Virtanen could all play there but none are top players.  We have a good third and fourth line with veterans and defensive minded players.  Adding Karlsson makes that top defensive pairing elite, even with an aging Edler.  The second defense lineup really depends on Hughes development and Tanev's health but could be good.  Quite a good third pairing, who could move up to the second pairing if needed depending on Hughes play, and Tanev's health.

 

The main need via trade is to upgrade our second line wingers.

Trade ideas: 

Trade #1
Pearson (cap dump), Virtanen, 2019 second round pick, 2020 fourth round pick to the New York Rangers for Chris Kreider - Try to extend him for around $5 mil per year (maybe try to include Pearson in the package going back for cap purposes).

Reasoning: New York is in a rebuild so they add two picks as well as a young winger in return for Kreider.  For the Canucks, Kreider has 47 points in 63 games this year with 26 goals and +7 on a bad team.  He's a really good scoring winger who's defensively responsible with a lot of size at 6'3.  He's only 27 years old.  He's exactly the guy we should be trading for. It may cost more than Virtanen, 2nd, 4th for him.  But this was my attempt.  He has one year left on his deal so we try to re-sign him.

Trade #2
Ryan Spooner (cap dump), Goldobin, 2020 first round pick (conditional on games played. Second round pick if under 50 games in 2019-2020 season, 3rd round pick if under 30 games in 2019-2020 season) for Corey Perry (50% salary retained)

Reasoning: Anaheim is near the bottom of the standings, and have a couple albatross contracts for aging veterans on their books.  It's time for them to rebuild but with Perry's injury this year, it may be hard to find a taker.  With this deal, the Ducks get a young player in Goldobin, a potentially top draft pick depending on Perry's play, and $4 million in savings in the second year as Spooner's contract ends after one year, but Perry's after two years.  It's not a huge haul but he is a hard contract to deal, and if he plays well, they will end up with a top draft pick.
For the Canucks they add a hard nose captain material veteran to mentor the young guys, play hard, and contribute goals on our second line.  He's only signed for two more years so his contract ends when Petterson needs a new contract, which works perfectly.  If he is injured a lot, Leivo plays on the second line.  In this scenario the Canucks are all-in for trying to win the cup in the next couple years.

Trade #3
Sutter for a second round pick (third if needed) to a contending team in the East.

Reasoning: cap space

Final roster:
Panarin 8 - Petterson 2.85 (with bonuses) - Boeser 6.5
Kreider 4.625 - Horvat 5.5 - Perry 4.3125
Roussel 3 - Gaudette 1.5 - Eriksson 6
Leivo 1.5 - Beagle 3 - Granlund 1.5
LTIR: Baertschi
Buried in minors: Schaller

Edler 5 - Karlsson 12
Hughes 2 (with bonuses) - Tanev 4.5
Hutton/Tryamkin 3 - Stecher 2.325
Biega .825

Markstrom 3.67
Demko .925

NHL projected 2019-2020 salary cap: $83 million
Total cap hit: $82.5
It's fairly tight against the cap even though we are under it.  If needed, we package picks with Eriksson to get rid of his contract, even if we retain salary.  I'd prefer to keep him on our third line if we can make it work financially.  The other option is to not keep Hutton and sign a cheaper third pairing defenseman.

Thoughts?

I like some of this but no to Karlsson not at any price. Myers  and Stralman would be my UFA signings

Kreider would be a great pick up, Panarin yes please. and no to Perry

[IBatch]

Other than maybe Myers or Stralman if they are available and possibly Panarin if the cap hit under 10 I’d say no.  I’d love if EK signed but that’s a pipe dream, he’s staying in SJ and Thornton is going (then they can afford him, why wouldn’t he stay and possibly win a few cups?).  

 

Adding one solid RHD would do wonders for our defense, and I think Benning needs to do something to boost it...Panarin would be ok given he’s proven durable and one of the best at his position in the league since he’s arrived...

 

I agree with the posters that suggest at some point Benning needs to go for it, I don’t think that’s this year other than a modest signing to help out defense out and Myers could be that guy.  Or he could get injured and make him look foolish so it does come with some risk.  Same with the EK sweepstakes, how his body will be holding up in three or four years is a valid concern, his play never will be though, he’s too good to not play well into his mid-thirties, at least that’s what history tells us about top defenseman, remember Lidstrom didn’t win his first Norris until the seas parted and all his competition aged out..