[Discussion] Arizona/OEL

[NewbieCanuckFan]

3 minutes ago, MattJVD said:

Jim said on the radio that OJ lost 10-15 lbs when he got sick. He couldn't get his strength and energy level back to where it needed to be before the end of the season. That's why he wasn't playing

He had COVID for the entire season?

 

Maybe the coaching staff felt he wasn't ready.  I don't know.  I do know it stretches believability that same player will be ready in a significant role (top 4) next season barely getting his feet wet at the NHL level.

Edited June 21, 2021 by NewbieCanuckFan

[MattJVD]

11 minutes ago, NewbieCanuckFan said:

He had COVID for the entire season?

 

Maybe the coaching staff felt he wasn't ready.  I don't know.  I do know it stretches believability that same player will be ready in a significant role (top 4) next season barely getting his feet wet at the NHL level.

He played 23 out of 37 games before, and 0 out of 19 after.

 

That said, I agree that it's unlikely he's a top 4 guy out of camp. Maybe he can get there by the end of the year.

Edited June 21, 2021 by MattJVD

[wallstreetamigo]

2 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

real dollars are Aqulini's problem.

 

I think you'd have to look at this as 4 years of productive player, 2 of a dump deal or buyout. So valuation would have to start there I think. 

OEL is owed 10.5 mil real dollars each of the next 3 years and 8 mil the year after. Thats 39.5 mil over that 4 years. Almost 10 mil per in cash. Thats why the Coyotes are so anxious to move him.

[NewbieCanuckFan]

11 minutes ago, MattJVD said:

He played 23 out of 37 games before, and 0 out of 19 after.

 

That said, I agree that it's unlikely he's a top 4 guy out of camp. Maybe he can get there by the end of the year.

I don't see that happening unless we acquire a decently defensively responsible partner for him to help mentor him  (same issue applies to Hughes).  There's a reason why Schmidt had to play so many tough defensive minutes (there wasn't anybody else on the roster & guys like Edler are unfortunately past their prime & are better placed in smaller roles).

Edited June 21, 2021 by NewbieCanuckFan

[theo5789]

4 hours ago, wallstreetamigo said:

So, in what ways is OEL anything like Shea Weber?

Did I say they were similar players? I am pointing out their ages and contracts when Weber was dealt and if OEL does get dealt. Weber's contract is far more brutal. Weber is still arguably Montreal's #1 dman at 35, the age when OEL's contract ends.

 

But if we are comparing, both were basically #1 dmen for their respective teams when dealt, but moved for their contracts. Both are big bodied dmen who put up about 40-50 points. Both play a physical game (both average around 4-5 hits per 60). Both have had relatively healthy careers.

 

Differences, one is RD, the other is LD. One is Canadian, the other is Swedish.

 

Anything else to add?

[theo5789]

4 hours ago, Bertuzzipunch said:

Ryan Mcdonagh was rangers #1 and only got better once he was traded to tampa at 30, it does happen but a roll the dice decision 

You'd think getting out the Arizona hell hole would help him improve all in itself. We lack a #1 dman, and he fits that criteria.

[wallstreetamigo]

2 hours ago, theo5789 said:

Did I say they were similar players? I am pointing out their ages and contracts when Weber was dealt and if OEL does get dealt. Weber's contract is far more brutal. Weber is still arguably Montreal's #1 dman at 35, the age when OEL's contract ends.

 

But if we are comparing, both were basically #1 dmen for their respective teams when dealt, but moved for their contracts. Both are big bodied dmen who put up about 40-50 points. Both play a physical game (both average around 4-5 hits per 60). Both have had relatively healthy careers.

 

Differences, one is RD, the other is LD. One is Canadian, the other is Swedish.

 

Anything else to add?

The difference is, Jakob Chychrun says hi regarding who is the Coyotes #1 dman btw. OEL is not even the top LHD on his team now.

 

Not sure what the stat keeper in Arizona is looking at but OEL is not overly physical at all. Certainly doesnt hold a candle to Weber in physicality, crease clearing, battling for pucks, etc.

[theo5789]

5 minutes ago, wallstreetamigo said:

The difference is, Jakob Chychrun says hi regarding who is the Coyotes #1 dman btw. OEL is not even the top LHD on his team now.

 

Not sure what the stat keeper in Arizona is looking at but OEL is not overly physical at all. Certainly doesnt hold a candle to Weber in physicality, crease clearing, battling for pucks, etc.

Perhaps Arizona wanting to move out OEL meant they didn't want to overwork him and cause injury? Or perhaps they wanted to prepare for their transition considering they were trying to move OEL in the past offseason and now clearly looking to move him again this offseason? Yet, OEL was still on pace for 42 points this season with lesser minutes. But if you want to look into who the #1 dman is, then technically Josi was taking over that role in Nashville as well for a couple of seasons already.

 

And as I said, they don't need to be exact equals for this. Even if Weber is slightly meaner (while not much else separates them), it doesn't take away the fact that Weber was traded at 30+ on an even larger albatross of a contract. And yet Weber is still playing at the top of his game at 35, which is when the OEL contract ends. Plus I suspect the trade returns will be different considering the fact that OEL has a NMC to control his fate whereas Weber did not. We clearly have shown that we won't overpay otherwise we would've done it last year. If we do acquire him, it'll be at lower than market value.

[Bertuzzipunch]

I just want solid dman like we had in 2011. We really didnt have huge guys but a good group that played well together. Do we really want to go into next season with our left side being

 

Quinn

Rathbone

Jouveli

 

thats definitely not getting us into the playoffs.

[wallstreetamigo]

1 hour ago, theo5789 said:

Perhaps Arizona wanting to move out OEL meant they didn't want to overwork him and cause injury? Or perhaps they wanted to prepare for their transition considering they were trying to move OEL in the past offseason and now clearly looking to move him again this offseason? Yet, OEL was still on pace for 42 points this season with lesser minutes. But if you want to look into who the #1 dman is, then technically Josi was taking over that role in Nashville as well for a couple of seasons already.

 

And as I said, they don't need to be exact equals for this. Even if Weber is slightly meaner (while not much else separates them), it doesn't take away the fact that Weber was traded at 30+ on an even larger albatross of a contract. And yet Weber is still playing at the top of his game at 35, which is when the OEL contract ends. Plus I suspect the trade returns will be different considering the fact that OEL has a NMC to control his fate whereas Weber did not. We clearly have shown that we won't overpay otherwise we would've done it last year. If we do acquire him, it'll be at lower than market value.

Or maybe Chycrun is just a much better, younger dman and Arizona wants to build around him and get rid of an overpaid, declining one?

 

So because Weber is still a good dman at 35 that means OEL for sure will be? And it makes him worth the risk? OEL's market value is negative at his current cap hit and term. If they retain 50% and trade him for basically nothing, there may be a chance his contract doesnt become Eriksson 2.0. 

 

Weber was traded for Subban, who had a pretty terrible contract himself.

 

And in case you havent noticed, we already have several guys that can provide offense. We have almost no one that can really play shutdown, physical defense. OEL doesnt fill that need. And he isnt getting 1st pp unit time in Van to pad his numbers either. He is not very effective generating 5 on 5 offense anymore.

 

He is nothing we need. If we want another 30 year old dman paid too much, sign one in free agency without a nmc and dont spend assets to get one.

[theo5789]

55 minutes ago, wallstreetamigo said:

Or maybe Chycrun is just a much better, younger dman and Arizona wants to build around him and get rid of an overpaid, declining one?

 

So because Weber is still a good dman at 35 that means OEL for sure will be? And it makes him worth the risk? OEL's market value is negative at his current cap hit and term. If they retain 50% and trade him for basically nothing, there may be a chance his contract doesnt become Eriksson 2.0. 

 

Weber was traded for Subban, who had a pretty terrible contract himself.

 

And in case you havent noticed, we already have several guys that can provide offense. We have almost no one that can really play shutdown, physical defense. OEL doesnt fill that need. And he isnt getting 1st pp unit time in Van to pad his numbers either. He is not very effective generating 5 on 5 offense anymore.

 

He is nothing we need. If we want another 30 year old dman paid too much, sign one in free agency without a nmc and dont spend assets to get one.

So OEL putting up his career average numbers despite getting his minutes dropped is a sign of decline? Perhaps there's a correlation between his EV strength point totals to his deployment? One season of lower EV points in a year where his EV time dropped is hardly proven science that he cannot get it done anymore (this is a very similar conversation about JT Miller with his "decline" in Tampa). There's no reason to believe he wouldn't get PP1 time here. We had Rathbone on PP1 last season, so we are open to having two dmen back on the top unit.

 

There's no guarantee that OEL will for sure be as good at 35, but there are clear examples that not all 30+ players are on massive decline to refute those claims we constantly hear.

 

Weber being traded for a bad contract is just an example of why we wouldn't need to pay a high price to acquire a potential #1 dman. The NMC only makes it harder for Arizona to move him to lower the cost even further. They don't want to spend the cash.

 

In case you haven't noticed, OEL plays all types of minutes. He's what you expect from an actual #1 dman to be capable of and he'd easily would be our #1 all-round dman. Our 2nd highest point producer on defense had 21 points which puts him around 50 amongst all dmen. Respectable, but seems odd to not want to welcome more offense and from a player that could also play the PK.

 

We don't know what "assets" would need to be spent, but Benning already wouldn't overpay given the situation as he has demonstrated already. If we do acquire him, it'll be from a desperation standpoint for Arizona especially if OEL is dead set on coming here.

[wallstreetamigo]

52 minutes ago, theo5789 said:

So OEL putting up his career average numbers despite getting his minutes dropped is a sign of decline? Perhaps there's a correlation between his EV strength point totals to his deployment? One season of lower EV points in a year where his EV time dropped is hardly proven science that he cannot get it done anymore (this is a very similar conversation about JT Miller with his "decline" in Tampa). There's no reason to believe he wouldn't get PP1 time here. We had Rathbone on PP1 last season, so we are open to having two dmen back on the top unit.

 

There's no guarantee that OEL will for sure be as good at 35, but there are clear examples that not all 30+ players are on massive decline to refute those claims we constantly hear.

 

Weber being traded for a bad contract is just an example of why we wouldn't need to pay a high price to acquire a potential #1 dman. The NMC only makes it harder for Arizona to move him to lower the cost even further. They don't want to spend the cash.

 

In case you haven't noticed, OEL plays all types of minutes. He's what you expect from an actual #1 dman to be capable of and he'd easily would be our #1 all-round dman. Our 2nd highest point producer on defense had 21 points which puts him around 50 amongst all dmen. Respectable, but seems odd to not want to welcome more offense and from a player that could also play the PK.

 

We don't know what "assets" would need to be spent, but Benning already wouldn't overpay given the situation as he has demonstrated already. If we do acquire him, it'll be from a desperation standpoint for Arizona especially if OEL is dead set on coming here.

We had Rathbone on the PP at the end of the season and he was pretty good there. Oh, and EP probably wants his top pp spot back next year. So which of Petterssen, Horvat, Miller, Boeser, or Hughes should we move off PP1 to accomodate OEL there? I know he would not get a spot over any of them on my team.

 

We need defensemen who can actually play effective, physical, shut down defense. We already have Hughes, Rathbone, and Schmidt that should be able to carry the mail offensively with the right roles. If you dive a bit deeper into OEL's advanced stats, you see that his regression has been mostly on the defensive side of things and 5 on 5 play. Not exactly filling a huge need of ours to have another guy who is ok defensively at that cap hit.

 

Why spend any asset at all for that contract? May as well just sign a guy like Larsson or Savard. Or better yet, fill the D out with short term guys and go for a bigger name next offseason.

 

The last thing the Canucks need is to trade assets for another long term contract for a ~30 y/o dman. We already have those in Myers and Schmidt. 

 

The NMC is a bigger problem for whatever team is dumb enough to acquire him though. Arizona already has him willing to waive it. 

 

You dont know if Benning would overpay or not. For me, even a late round pick is too much for that contract as it stands. Even if they trade just for Eriksson straight up, we still get the worst of that due to 6 more years of his cap hit. If they retain 3-4 mil and Van can nullify his nmc, maybe he is worth taking a chance on for a moderate asset. Outside of that, he is a boat anchor contract that will wreck any chance this team has of filling their actual top pairing RHD need going forward.

 

Every cap dollar matters now. And we have enough old guys already. Time to let the young guys show what they can do for this year then readjust next summer as needed with the cap and the flexibility to add more cost effective difference makers who dont have a ton of downside risk to them.

 

 

Edited June 21, 2021 by wallstreetamigo

[wallstreetamigo]

People need to be patient. No one should want Benning trading for OEL at this point. Long term money should be getting used for core guys to upgrade the top 6 winger, 3C, and RHD positions, not one of the only areas the team actually has cost effective quality at LD.

 

The Canucks kind of suck. They have a bunch of huge holes that need to be filled before they can think about being truly competitive.

 

One of the only areas they really dont have a pressing need to overspend to upgrade is LH, left side D. 

[babalu]

Here's my offer for OEL

Eriksson, Beagle, Roussel,Ferland, Schmidt and Holtby

I'll even throw in Luongo.

 

[Me_]

17 hours ago, wallstreetamigo said:

At 8.25 million for 6 more years with a nmc, OEL is the poster child for regret.

You mean to say that Eriksson can actually be dethroned from His title?

[JM_]

13 hours ago, wallstreetamigo said:

OEL is owed 10.5 mil real dollars each of the next 3 years and 8 mil the year after. Thats 39.5 mil over that 4 years. Almost 10 mil per in cash. Thats why the Coyotes are so anxious to move him.

OK? so it makes him movable to an owner with deeper pockets. 

[JM_]

8 hours ago, wallstreetamigo said:

Or maybe Chycrun is just a much better, younger dman and Arizona wants to build around him and get rid of an overpaid, declining one?

this is a bit silly, you don't win with one d man. 

[Alflives]

7 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

OK? so it makes him movable to an owner with deeper pockets. 

If OEL played like an 8.5 million dollar D man, than yes, wealthier teams would certainly want him, and help Arizona get out of the full contract.  But OEL puts up 20-30 points and is a huge minus player.  He’s got six years left at 8.5 during an era where the cap is not going up any time soon.  It’s a big risk to take him on.  Are we in need of that risk?  We are progressing nicely building around a group of really good younger players, who are all paid reasonably.  I really hope Benning stays clear of OEL.  

[JM_]

1 minute ago, Alflives said:

If OEL played like an 8.5 million dollar D man, than yes, wealthier teams would certainly want him, and help Arizona get out of the full contract.  But OEL puts up 20-30 points and is a huge minus player.  He’s got six years left at 8.5 during an era where the cap is not going up any time soon.  It’s a big risk to take him on.  Are we in need of that risk?  We are progressing nicely building around a group of really good younger players, who are all paid reasonably.  I really hope Benning stays clear of OEL.  

need? no. 

 

Nice to have at 6 mil or less for peanuts? yeah, for the 1st 4 years anyway. 

[Boudrias]

2 minutes ago, Alflives said:

If OEL played like an 8.5 million dollar D man, than yes, wealthier teams would certainly want him, and help Arizona get out of the full contract.  But OEL puts up 20-30 points and is a huge minus player.  He’s got six years left at 8.5 during an era where the cap is not going up any time soon.  It’s a big risk to take him on.  Are we in need of that risk?  We are progressing nicely building around a group of really good younger players, who are all paid reasonably.  I really hope Benning stays clear of OEL.  

I agree. Is OEL what the Canucks need now? To early IMHO. Maybe in 2 years they deal for such a player if they don't develop their own.