VAN Ranked #3 For Prospect/Young Depth & Quality

[Cali Canuck]

Any player under 22 as of Sept 15th is ranked whether they are in the NHL or not.  If the players are under 26 as of 9/15 and have played < 50 games they can be included.  Petey & Quinn are the reason the Canucks are number 3.  Petey turns 22 in the fall so the Canucks won't be #3 next year.  Below is the intro in bold. The top 10 are:

 

1. Petey (Tier Special one of the best player in league) 2. Quinn (Elite top 10%-15% of the league) 3. Pods 4. Hogs 5. Brogan Rafferty 6. OJ 7. Big Mac 8. Jett 9.Jack Rathbone 10. Mikey D.   Kole Lind and 3 others are mentioned as having NHL potential.

 

I checked and just for comparison LA was ranked #13 overall and Tyler Madden was their #7 prospect.  If Tyler Madden was still with the Canucks he'd probably rank 5 or 6.  His tier is very good NHL player.  "Madden’s main weakness is his average footspeed which at his size will be a challenge in the NHL, but he’s so skilled that I think he will still succeed."

 

The Canucks’ high ranking, and a large part of their recent success, is on the backs of two of the best young players in the NHL in Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes. The drafting outside of those two has been mixed. I’m sure the Canucks would like more from 2016 No. 5 overall-pick Olli Juolevi, but recent second-round pick Nils Hoglander looks excellent. They have two undrafted free agents projected as future players, which is unusual. The Canucks have simply done a great job at getting the hardest players to acquire, the stars and top of the lineup types.

[Nuxfanabroad]

Think it's also notable from our top-10 break-down:

 

fwds 5

Dmen 4

& 1 'tender

 

Every off-season, seemed there were howling wails for 1 positional need, or another. Appears it's becoming more balanced, as time moves along.

 

We have a fine, young(er) team. All bad contracts kiboshed in 2 yrs.

We have a young nucleus competitive with almost any other franchise(so.. sustainability)

We're well-positioned(many top assets ineligible) for the upcoming ED

 

What's not to like?

[Kevin Biestra]

Not bad.  Quinn is in the same tier as Petterson though.  Possibly a rarer talent.

[BarnBurner]

6 minutes ago, Kevin Biestra said:

Not bad.  Quinn is in the same tier as Petterson though.  Possibly a rarer talent.

I think we scored in with both Petey and Hughes. They are both exceptionally hybrid types. Amazing!

[Provost]

On 9/10/2020 at 2:19 PM, Nuxfanabroad said:

Darn impressive, DIR. Was also mentioned that BB, Thatcher & Gaudette all 'aged-up' from last yr(where Van was ranked #5 OA). So mostly on the strength of their 2019 draft class, they kept moving upwards, despite other youth slightly above the cut-off.

Ya, the most impressive to me was that we are that good with three really good pieces who are just one year older.

 

Not many teams could keep a high ranking after dropping off a top 6 forward and a soon to be starting goalie prospect.

 

 

[YearoftheNuck]

On 9/10/2020 at 2:32 PM, BCNate said:

We are in pretty good shape for prospects.   I feel we are looking at:

 

High End:

Podkolzin

Hoglander

 

Probable NHL Regular:

Rathbone

Rafferty

Joulevi

Lind

DiPietro

MacEwan

 

Potential NHLer:

Tryamkin

Saunter

Brisebois

Jasek

Focht

Bailey

Chatfield

Utonen

Karlsson

 

Not a ton of likely star power, but real solid depth, which is what we need.

Sorry if this was already said, but I think you could definitely slot Woo into that second bracket. I think this guy will be a solid mid pairing D man. 

[Alienhuggyflow]

On 9/10/2020 at 2:12 PM, DarkIndianRises said:

HF Canucks are going to be seething upon seeing this, LOL.

 

Jim Benning 1
MS, y2k, tantalum, peter10, etc. 0

The Athletic is well worth the cost, lots of great Nuck articles. Pron is very high on Podz, Joulevi, Hogs but these rankings get bloated by the way he allows anyone 22 and under as of Sept15 skews things. We still have Petey and Hughes being counted.

Hell the Leafs are 4th based entirely off AM.  

The Oilers are ranked 26th tho sat that feels good lol. Petey is in the second-highest tier (special player) Quinn is one below in the tier (Elite) both of their overall grades is head-scratching, Petey got a 65 for IQ and stick handling and 70 for his shot. All graded lower then a ton of other giys. For eg, he gave AM an 80 for shot and the same 65 for stickhandling as Petey got and iirc AM had a higher IQ. Quinn was also given some very low grades. 

[iceman64]

On 9/10/2020 at 2:32 PM, BCNate said:

We are in pretty good shape for prospects.   I feel we are looking at:

 

High End:

Podkolzin

Hoglander

 

Probable NHL Regular:

Rathbone

Rafferty

Joulevi

Lind

DiPietro

MacEwan

 

Potential NHLer:

Tryamkin

Saunter

Brisebois

Jasek

Focht

Bailey

Chatfield

Utonen

Karlsson

 

Not a ton of likely star power, but real solid depth, which is what we need.

Hmmm Tryamkin and Bailey don't belong in the "potential" NHL"

 Try isn't here because Willy D sucks arse and Bailey has played already and Big Mac will be pushing, Hogs n Podz and only so many spots so depth will grow around the team as contracts drop off and just as we're getting closer to a fully open window of core for competitive hockey for awhile yet and tweaks too.. should be fun!

[IBatch]

11 hours ago, Provost said:

Ya, the most impressive to me was that we are that good with three really good pieces who are just one year older.

 

Not many teams could keep a high ranking after dropping off a top 6 forward and a soon to be starting goalie prospect.

 

 

This is the second year in a row we’ve maintained the 3rd best group of 21 and unders (THN does six or so prospect mags a year and one ranks 21 and unders too, identical ranking as the OP). It is impressive with some good pieces aging out.  BTW EP was ranked 2, then 1 overall.  Be curious to see where QHs ranks next year after this years draft ... he started the year at 10th overall before the season started. 

[IBatch]

Also for perspective.   TO and WNP owned these rankings for a period of 2-3 years each and both were ranked higher then we’ve managed so far.   Elite talent scews this the same way they do once it comes time to sign players.   Curiously though even with McDavid and co they never managed to rank this high - because their later picks never made it into the top 100 prospect rankings like ours have.    Examples of guys we’ve had crack it - Demko, AG, Madden, Lind and all our first rounders were perrenial candidate’s including OJ right until this year. 

[IBatch]

THN recent rankings for organizational depth which focuses on prospects only, average ranking was a B minus.   We got a B minus for forwards, B minus for defense and a C+ for goalies.  With QHs becoming our third finalist in a row our best prospects are now NHL players (stars!).   Hopefully JB can take a page from TB who regularly adds amazing picks to keep their engine running..Point,Cerrili, Paquette...with more coming.   They are the new Detroit ...

 

TB got A- across the boards.  

[spook007]

2 hours ago, IBatch said:

This is the second year in a row we’ve maintained the 3rd best group of 21 and unders (THN does six or so prospect mags a year and one ranks 21 and unders too, identical ranking as the OP). It is impressive with some good pieces aging out.  BTW EP was ranked 2, then 1 overall.  Be curious to see where QHs ranks next year after this years draft ... he started the year at 10th overall before the season started. 

A wee bet says he ranks higher now 

[IBatch]

2 hours ago, spook007 said:

A wee bet says he ranks higher now 

It will be interesting...his brother Jack was ranked higher but wonder how much that will change - usually their ranking issue comes out in September just before the season starts - with the playoffs going and guys like Heiskanen killing it bet they hold off a bit.   Then again mid/late season.
 

What they do is evaluate the average of 10 nhl scouts rankings - and try to determine who will be the best forward at 23, defenseman at 24 and goalie at 25, as well as determining value compared to each position (who’s the best of the bunch).   They include the previous years ranking too if applicable and given its 21 and under they even have kids that might not get drafted for a year or two.   
 

The September issue from a year ago went as follows (they also do a write up of the entire top 100 which is pretty cool).  Previous in brackets. This would be after EPs rookie year,  before a 2019-20 NHL game was played.
 

1. Dahlin (4)

2. EP (ranked 8 before playing one NHL game previous year - now considerEd a steal at his draft position)

3. Heiskanen (12)

4. Makar (41)

5. Laine (3)

6. J Hughes (6)

7. Lafreniere (7)

8. Q Byfield (10)

9. B Tkachuk (35)

10. Q Hughes (27)

11. Glass (46)

12. Askarov  (NR, killer  goalie this draft - might end up the highest Russian goalie ever drafted - suiting that only Lehner isn’t Russian is the final four)

13. Svecknikov (30)

14. Hart (22)

15. Aatu Raty (NR) 

16. Shane Wright (84 - exceptional status player OHLer)

17. PLDubois  (25)

18. Kakko (15)

19. Sergachev (29)

20. Knight (40)

21. Dach (16)

22. Caufield (NR)

23. Keller (17)

24. Dobson (34)

25. Byram (NR)

26. Turcotte (NR)

27. K’Andre Miller (96)

28. L Raymond (21)

29. Holtz (37)

30. Luukkonen (NR)

31. Hischier (20)

 

Going to stop there but it gives you an idea on how much a good or bad rookie or sophomore campaign affects things - as well as what have you done for me lately AND what you haven’t done at all yet.   Fun exercise but extremely volatile.  
 

I’m expecting a very different look next time out - the threads analysis is after one more season and it’s actually pretty good too.  We should be the only team with two in the top five IMO.  QHs is going to move up that much after his record breaking season.  Heiskanen might switch with Dahlin IMO, EPs got a very strong case to keep his spot at number two - or move to number one, killer killer playoff at his age. 

Before the season started Q Hughes was thought of that highly (10).  Cap comments: 

Curiously we know that Keller’s cost came in at 7 x 8 or something like that.   Know what Laines bridge looks like too.  Makar, Heiskanen, Q Hughes and Svecknikov will all get huge deals - expect AHO or higher.  Also already rumblings that GMs could be willing to offer sheet certain teams up against the cap and unfortunately we are one of them after what Bergivin did with AHO and the flat cap.   Hope they don’t as it’s an A-Hole move and burns bridges.  It’s also why I’m thinking only a traceable deal with JM will work and think we need to hold off on adding a winger like TT until a year maybe two (5 x 5).

 

Edit:  ha ha EP firmly at 2...Hirschier at 31

Edited September 12, 2020 by IBatch

[spook007]

49 minutes ago, IBatch said:

It will be interesting...his brother Jack was ranked higher but wonder how much that will change - usually their ranking issue comes out in September just before the season starts - with the playoffs going and guys like Heiskanen killing it bet they hold off a bit.   Then again mid/late season.
 

What they do is evaluate the average of 10 nhl scouts rankings - and try to determine who will be the best forward at 23, defenseman at 24 and goalie at 25, as well as determining value compared to each position (who’s the best of the bunch).   They include the previous years ranking too if applicable and given its 21 and under they even have kids that might not get drafted for a year or two.   
 

The September issue from a year ago went as follows (they also do a write up of the entire top 100 which is pretty cool).  Previous in brackets. This would be after EPs rookie year,  before a 2019-20 NHL game was played.
 

1. Dahlin (4)

2. EP (ranked 8 before playing one NHL game previous year - now considerEd a steal at his draft position)

3. Heiskanen (12)

4. Makar (41)

5. Laine (3)

6. J Hughes (6)

7. Lafreniere (7)

8. Q Byfield (10)

9. B Tkachuk (35)

10. Q Hughes (27)

11. Glass (46)

12. Askarov  (NR, killer  goalie this draft - might end up the highest Russian goalie ever drafted - suiting that only Lehner isn’t Russian is the final four)

13. Svecknikov (30)

14. Hart (22)

15. Aatu Raty (NR) 

16. Shane Wright (84 - exceptional status player OHLer)

17. PLDubois  (25)

18. Kakko (15)

19. Sergachev (29)

20. Knight (40)

21. Dach (16)

22. Caufield (NR)

23. Keller (17)

24. Dobson (34)

25. Byram (NR)

26. Turcotte (NR)

27. K’Andre Miller (96)

28. L Raymond (21)

29. Holtz (37)

30. Luukkonen (NR)

31. Hischier (20)

 

Going to stop there but it gives you an idea on how much a good or bad rookie or sophomore campaign affects things - as well as what have you done for me lately AND what you haven’t done at all yet.   Fun exercise but extremely volatile.  
 

I’m expecting a very different look next time out - the threads analysis is after one more season and it’s actually pretty good too.  We should be the only team with two in the top five IMO.  QHs is going to move up that much after his record breaking season.  Heiskanen might switch with Dahlin IMO, EPs got a very strong case to keep his spot at number two - or move to number one, killer killer playoff at his age. 

Before the season started Q Hughes was thought of that highly (10).  Cap comments: 

Curiously we know that Keller’s cost came in at 7 x 8 or something like that.   Know what Laines bridge looks like too.  Makar, Heiskanen, Q Hughes and Svecknikov will all get huge deals - expect AHO or higher.  Also already rumblings that GMs could be willing to offer sheet certain teams up against the cap and unfortunately we are one of them after what Bergivin did with AHO and the flat cap.   Hope they don’t as it’s an A-Hole move and burns bridges.  It’s also why I’m thinking only a traceable deal with JM will work and think we need to hold off on adding a winger like TT until a year maybe two (5 x 5).

 

Edit:  ha ha EP firmly at 2...Hirschier at 31

Yes, fun to think back at some of the comments regarding Benning drafting Petey. 
what an absolute steal by Benning. 
And to have 2 in top 5-6 would be incredible achievement by Benning... in particular bearing in mind we never drafted lower than 5th. 
Regarding offer sheet, I’m not too knowledgeable when it comes to contracts for the young guns ( CDC is a fountain of knowledge) , but thought I read someone say that the young guns couldn’t be offer sheeted? If they start doing that, then we could be getting problems, but wouldn’t be surprised, if it happened. 
With less money to play with (Bobby Lu), we might be testet.... 

Leave that for our Guru Benning to deal with. 

[Yung1]

On 9/10/2020 at 2:23 PM, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

Up from #5 last year, even with Boeser, Gaudette, and Demko graduating and no longer counted toward the rankings, we move to #3, mostly on the strength of the Podkolzin and Höglander picks, and the increased ratings for Pettersson and Hughes.

 

Pretty good stuff overall. 
 

One quibble with Pronman’s ratings is his “physical game” scores for our Dmen.

 

Juolevi: 55

Woo: 50

Rafferty: 45

Rathbone: 35

 

Those seem a bit off. Rathbone should definitely be higher than 35. He’s a much more physical Dman than that score suggests. And I’m not sure I’d say Juolevi plays a more physical style than Woo (although OJ has certainly improved that element of his game).

 

Also could quibble with the players Pronman chooses to mention in the lower tiers (and those he omits), but I suppose I can’t really fault a guy for being a little bit off on the Canucks’ overall depth rankings, when he’s writing 31 separate articles like this.

Some of his grades didn't make sense to me either. Juolevi rated more physical than woo is laughable.

[Yung1]

2 hours ago, spook007 said:

Yes, fun to think back at some of the comments regarding Benning drafting Petey. 
what an absolute steal by Benning. 
And to have 2 in top 5-6 would be incredible achievement by Benning... in particular bearing in mind we never drafted lower than 5th. 
Regarding offer sheet, I’m not too knowledgeable when it comes to contracts for the young guns ( CDC is a fountain of knowledge) , but thought I read someone say that the young guns couldn’t be offer sheeted? If they start doing that, then we could be getting problems, but wouldn’t be surprised, if it happened. 
With less money to play with (Bobby Lu), we might be testet.... 

Leave that for our Guru Benning to deal with. 

If a team offers anything more than $5m on an offer sheet then they also have to pay 4 first round draft picks, so it's unlikely we have anything to worry about when it comes to someone like Hughes. Rarely does it make sense for a team to offer sheet an RFA because they also have to send draft picks,even for cheaper players. It's usually more draft picks than you would likely want to trade that player for.

 

Edit: I'M INCORRECT. I was looking at the 2005 numbers. 4 first rounders is $10.something million and above... still usually not worth it.

Edited September 12, 2020 by Yung1

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

7 minutes ago, Yung1 said:

Some of his grades didn't make sense to me either. Juolevi rated more physical than woo is laughable.

Yeah, those “physical play” ratings for the defencemen really stood out.
 

Also, Pronman was pretty stingy with the “hockey sense” ratings for Petey and Huggy. 65 is a high number for his system, but I’d still put them both even higher than that.

[oldnews]

If only I cared what Pronman thinks.   The Athletic's hockey coverage is the equivalent of THW v2.0 imo.

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, spook007 said:

Yes, fun to think back at some of the comments regarding Benning drafting Petey. 
what an absolute steal by Benning. 
And to have 2 in top 5-6 would be incredible achievement by Benning... in particular bearing in mind we never drafted lower than 5th. 
Regarding offer sheet, I’m not too knowledgeable when it comes to contracts for the young guns ( CDC is a fountain of knowledge) , but thought I read someone say that the young guns couldn’t be offer sheeted? If they start doing that, then we could be getting problems, but wouldn’t be surprised, if it happened. 
With less money to play with (Bobby Lu), we might be testet.... 

Leave that for our Guru Benning to deal with. 

Yes I think QHs is exempt and doubt it will happen to us - just some rumblings/suppositions that it could happen given flat cap ... Aho, before that was 5-6 years with O’Reilly, it hasn’t happened often since Burke/Lowe debacle over Penner.   Lowe offered 5 million which is like 8-9 now .... and started a war with Burke and lost a lot of respect because Burke was 100% correct for losing his sh!t over it.   TO should have learned from Lowe’s mistakes and not offered their young stars third contract money either ha ha.   
 

Read it on NHL.com recently - one writer was saying the market would me ripe for the dreaded offer sheet - it’s probably mostly wind but it could be quite tactical depending on both teams (one against the cap - the other with room looking for that over the top piece).   Personally I think the league should consider suspending that until Covid is up because I’d don’t feel the return is very fair if a team can’t afford to match. 

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, Yung1 said:

If a team offers anything more than $5m on an offer sheet then they also have to pay 4 first round draft picks, so it's unlikely we have anything to worry about when it comes to someone like Hughes. Rarely does it make sense for a team to offer sheet an RFA because they also have to send draft picks,even for cheaper players. It's usually more draft picks than you would likely want to trade that player for.

No that’s not how it works.   It has to be close to 11 million before it gets that high.   4.3-6.5 is one first rounder and one third rounder.   Below that barely anything.  6.5-AHO is 1 first - second and one 3rd.   Below 4.3 a second rounder.   Below a certain amount Zero compensation. 
 

Edit:  If a team offer sheeted EP at 10.702 would you match or take the four first rounders?  
 

Edit:  If a team offered JV 2.2-3 would you match or take the second rounder...same with AG?

Edited September 12, 2020 by IBatch