Coronavirus outbreak

[stawns]

5 hours ago, kenhodgejr said:

By March of 2021 we will have a complete economic breakdown in Canada. Another Great Recession except this one will be worse. The government will borrow money and print cash as long as it can to keep things afloat a little while longer. Many other countries will do the same. 

 

A new global economic model will be implemented. 

 

Great future cities will emerge like Neom in Saudi Arabia along with new regions of power. USA will be less important. A civil war might happen in America. WW3 might still happen which will allow the shift in global power and the right off of debts. Now might be the time to buy real estate in Egypt on the Red Sea Coast. 

 

I dont trust Jack Ma. 4 months ago he was running an internet business now he's the guy donating Corona tests? Him Bill Gates and some of the other Silicon Valley moguls have me suspicious. 

 

I could be totally wrong. This agenda could fall apart. Nobody knows the future. People predicting things are often wrong. Everything could go back to normal in a months time. Only thing to fear is fear itself. 

 

Get ready for mandatory curfew and vaccines. 

Every country will do this same.  The longer this goes on, the more likely this is the end of this current model of society and economic engine.  The cost of human lives is in no way acceptable, but maybe the end of this social and economical model isn't such a terrible thing.  Though, as individuals, we're just getting sick now, society and the economic system has been sick for a very long time.

[Ryan Strome]

18 hours ago, coastal.view said:

we already have the problem here

"they" will not be adding to it really

"they" are not the problem

if "they" act cautiously like "we" are told to

then it does not matter much where "they" originate from

 

the virus is here

no one can now bring it here

let's deal with it here

"they" are not a risk to "us"

let's all focus on following the recommendations that really make a difference

 

social distancing from everyone - "them" and "us"

regular proper hand washing for all - "them" and "us"

"they" really are not any different from "us"

no need to single "them" out

 

we are all family

on this spinning globe of ours

embrace it

(in a social distancing sort of way)

Canada, U.S. working on mutual deal to restrict non-essential travel

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/canada-us-border-1.5501201

 

Guess they don't agree with you..

[nux4lyfe]

5 hours ago, Petey Castiglione said:

Thanks for the story as this one hits close to home.  If you can, next time offer her a ride.  Not that you need a reward for doing a good deed but I bet you'll get an extremely good dinner or two out of it.

 

In these times, we all should remember the humanity in all of us.  Not what we can do for ourselves but what we can do to help others.   

 

In saying that, I'd like to thank everyone on these boards for their perspectives and participation in these discussions. I've learned a lot about hockey (and other things) the 10+ years I've been here.  Even though I don't agree with everyone, I want to try and understand everyone's perspective. 

 

If we can all come to accept our differences and embrace them we don't need to fight but can still have great discussions while learning and improving along the way.  Keep an open mind, we can get through this together.  

100% I would have but the bus was near by. If I had turned around she would of have been gone.

 

I completely agree with your post, It's a time for unity. Just respect each others opinion.

 

[stawns]

2 hours ago, Jaimito said:

Pretty doom forecast model here. 

 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239975682643357696.html

 

 

Jeremy C. Young

@jeremycyoung

   Profile picture

17 hours ago, 21 tweets, 4 min read

  

We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we've seen in the US this week. Read it; it's terrifying. I'll offer a summary in this thread; please correct me if I've gotten it wrong.

imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial… 

The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China/Korea/Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what happens if the US does absolutely nothing -- if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course? 

Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself. 

It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die. 

So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die. 

How many is 4 million people? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's 4 times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust. 

Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. If we extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world (warning: MOE is high here), this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19, in 3-6 months. 15 Holocausts. 1.5 times as many people as died in all of World War II. 

Now, of course countries won't stand by and do nothing. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a "mitigation" strategy: all symptomatic cases in the US in isolation. Families of those cases quarantined. All Americans over 70 social distancing. 

This mitigation strategy is what you've seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should "flatten the curve": try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals. 

And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by 8 times. 

That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two Civil Wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we rely on mitigation & common sense. 

Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, assuming a "suppression" strategy: isolate symptomatic cases, quarantine their family members, social distancing for the whole population, all public gatherings/most workplaces shut down, schools and universities close. 

Suppression works! The death rate in the US peaks 3 weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit but don't exceed the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear. 

But here's the catch: if we EVER relax suppression before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before. 

After the 1st suppression period ends in July, we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by 2 more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. Staggering breaks by city could do a bit better. 

But we simply cannot EVER allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen. 

How quickly will a vaccine be here? Last week three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. That's an extreme measure, but necessary. 

Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for 14 months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This part can't be rushed: if you're going to inoculate all humans, you have to make absolutely sure the vaccine itself won't kill them. It probably won't, but you have to be sure. 

Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available. 

During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and society will be disrupted in profound ways. And if suppression actually works, it will feel like we're doing all this for nothing, because infection and death rates will remain low. 

It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do. /end 

That's terrifying to read, but falls in line with what I figured.  I'd start stocking up on seeds and planting a garden folks.  I highly doubt the food supply chain is going to remain intact beyond the summer.  We need to start thinking about how we're getting through the winter

[-DLC-]

The US & Canada have agreed to shut down the border to all non essential travel this morning.

 

On Global News right now...

[HKSR]

Great news!

 

https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/03/18/trump-announces-temporary-u-s-canada-border-closure-amid-virus-pandemic/

Edited March 18, 2020 by HKSR

[Boudrias]

58 minutes ago, stawns said:

Canada will come out of the other end of this I think, but you're in dream world if you think the world is just going to pick up and carry on with the same systems that we ran before.

Not sure why you would suggest that if you read my post. I am talking a full blown debt crisis. That undermines almost all facets of society. How does that equate to business as usual?

[stawns]

5 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

Not sure why you would suggest that if you read my post. I am talking a full blown debt crisis. That undermines almost all facets of society. How does that equate to business as usual?

Because I truly don't believe we will be coming out of this with the current economic/currency model........if we come out of it with any structured social construct at all 

[nuckin_futz]

Telegraph: London braces for lockdown as government prepares emergency bill

Wed 18 Mar 2020 14:24:35 GMT

 

London's Daily Telegraph

The London Daily Telegraph is reporting that sources close to the mayor's office, says shutdown of the capital expected in coming days. It adds that government will be able to close premises.  There is alarm that Boris Johnson's call for people to avoid pubs and restaurants and to work at home is being ignored in the large numbers

 

Legislation in the coronavirus bill:

• would give the government emergency powers to close premises and
• restrict or prohibit events and gatherings that includes restricting transport networks

 

New York City Mayor is talking about shuttering the city. 

[-DLC-]

Emergency plans are being outlined by Trudeau right now on Global....

 

Including benefits for those having to self isolate/stay home, those who don't qualify for EI, etc. (bi weekly up to 14 weeks?...not sure if I heard it correctly).

 

Employers of small business will be provided a wage subsidy of 10% for 3 months to encourage them to keep employees on the payroll and to support them as they self isolate/quarantine, etc.

 

Tax deadline is now extended to June 2020.

 

 

[-DLC-]

GST & Child Benefits to be increased....

[-DLC-]

 

[nux4lyfe]

Every city should be shut down so we can weed out and treat the people infected, Close everything, It's simple math.

[King Heffy]

1 minute ago, nux4lyfe said:

Every city should be shut down so we can weed out and treat the people infected, Close everything, It's simple math.

Hopefully that stimulus was preparation for this.  It's wasting money otherwise.

[nuckin_futz]

Canada PM Trudeau: Announces stimulus worth 3% of Canada's economy

Wed 18 Mar 2020 14:56:16 GMT

 

Announces 3% of GDP fiscal stimulus package. Greater than expectations.

Canada's PM Trudeau is on the wires announcing a stimulus worth 3% of Canada's economy.

He adds:

• Canada to provide up to C$27B  to help Canadians and businesses
•  Canada provide C$55B to  meet liquidity needs of business and households through tax deferrals
•  Canada to provide temporary wage subsidy for up to 3 months to allow businesses to keep workers on payroll
• The  total Canada aid package totals C$82B
• Canadians will have until August 2020 to pay taxes

Trudeau adds that they are willing to do more to aid economic activity.

The amount of stimulus is much greater than the earlier sources estimate of at least 1% of GDP

 

So far the USDCAD is unimpressed. It remains near the high for the day and at the highest levels since January 2016.

[AlwaysACanuckFan]

1 hour ago, debluvscanucks said:

The US & Canada have agreed to shut down the border to all non essential travel this morning.

 

On Global News right now...

 

[Chicken.]

37 minutes ago, debluvscanucks said:

Emergency plans are being outlined by Trudeau right now on Global....

 

Including benefits for those having to self isolate/stay home, those who don't qualify for EI, etc. (bi weekly up to 14 weeks?...not sure if I heard it correctly).

 

Employers of small business will be provided a wage subsidy of 10% for 3 months to encourage them to keep employees on the payroll and to support them as they self isolate/quarantine, etc.

 

Tax deadline is now extended to August 2020.

 

 

I wonder how a 10% wage subsidy is administered.. via payroll tax reporting I guess?

[AlwaysACanuckFan]

 

Affected flights:

March 12:

Flight 1447 (WS1447)

• Las Vegas to Edmonton
• Affected rows: 2 to 8

Flight 665 (WS665)

• Toronto to Calgary
• Affected rows: 19-27

Flight 1201 (WS1201)

• New York (LaGuardia) to Toronto
• Affected rows: 3-9

Flight 2311 (WS2311)

• Cancun to Calgary
• Affected rows: 32-38

Flight 3240 (WS3240)

• Edmonton to Grande Prairie
• Affected rows: 1-6

March 11:

Flight 1157 (WS1157)

• San Juan, Puerto Rico to Toronto
• Affected rows: 2-6

Flight 4 (WS4)

• London (Gatwick) to Toronto
• Affected rows: 10-16

March 10:

Flight 3326 (WS3326)

• Vancouver to Kelowna
• Affected rows: 10-16

March 9:

Flight 2643 (WS2643)

• Liberia, Costa Rica to Toronto

March 7:

Flight 2644 (WS2644)

• Toronto to Liberia, Costa Rica

Flight 3440 (WS3440)

• Toronto to Moncton
• Affected rows: 7-11

March 5:

Flight 2 (WS2)

• London (Gatwick) to Calgary

March 3:

Flight 2 (WS2)

• London (Gatwick) to Calgary
• Affected rows: 7-14

Feb. 28:

Flight 1199 (WS1199)

• Phoenix to Toronto
• Affected rows: 18-2

Edited March 18, 2020 by AlwaysACanuckFan

[Lionized27]

2 minutes ago, AlwaysACanuckFan said:

 

Affected flights:

March 12:

Flight 1447 (WS1447)

• Las Vegas to Edmonton
• Affected rows: 2 to 8

Flight 665 (WS665)

• Toronto to Calgary
• Affected rows: 19-27

Flight 1201 (WS1201)

• New York (LaGuardia) to Toronto
• Affected rows: 3-9

Flight 2311 (WS2311)

• Cancun to Calgary
• Affected rows: 32-38

Flight 3240 (WS3240)

• Edmonton to Grande Prairie
• Affected rows: 1-6

March 11:

Flight 1157 (WS1157)

• San Juan, Puerto Rico to Toronto
• Affected rows: 2-6

Flight 4 (WS4)

• London (Gatwick) to Toronto
• Affected rows: 10-16

March 10:

Flight 3326 (WS3326)

• Vancouver to Kelowna
• Affected rows: 10-16

March 9:

Flight 2643 (WS2643)

• Liberia, Costa Rica to Toronto

March 7:

Flight 2644 (WS2644)

• Toronto to Liberia, Costa Rica

Flight 3440 (WS3440)

• Toronto to Moncton
• Affected rows: 7-11

March 5:

Flight 2 (WS2)

• London (Gatwick) to Calgary

March 3:

Flight 2 (WS2)

• London (Gatwick) to Calgary
• Affected rows: 7-14

Feb. 28:

Flight 1199 (WS1199)

• Phoenix to Toronto
• Affected rows: 18-2

Yikes.

That's a lot of people.

[Shift-4]

2 minutes ago, AlwaysACanuckFan said:

 

March 3:

Flight 2 (WS2)

• London (Gatwick) to Calgary
• Affected rows: 7-14

 

Lovely
I picked up my daughter at the airport that day

She wasn't on that flight but still...