[Edited] Bottom 5 Finish Now in Reach!

[freshhprince95]

This was definitely written pre-maturely and then edited pre-maturely. I’m not saying we make the playoffs but it’s obviously still within reach. — Win out against Montreal ur in a playoff spot. Considering how many games we have left against OTT, and if we beat EDM in our remaining bouts we’re in a playoff spot. Still tons of pathways to the playoffs. Again I’m not saying definitively we will make it, but we can’t rule it out *at this point

['NucK™]

13 hours ago, freshhprince95 said:

This was definitely written pre-maturely and then edited pre-maturely. I’m not saying we make the playoffs but it’s obviously still within reach. — Win out against Montreal ur in a playoff spot. Considering how many games we have left against OTT, and if we beat EDM in our remaining bouts we’re in a playoff spot. Still tons of pathways to the playoffs. Again I’m not saying definitively we will make it, but we can’t rule it out *at this point

Who woulda thunk! Talking in absolutes 20 games into a season was premature... 

Edited March 18, 2021 by 'NucK™

[freshhprince95]

8 minutes ago, 'NucK™ said:

Who woulda thunk! Talking in absolutes 20 games into a season was premature... 

Ya well tell that to the guy who actually made this post

[BCNate]

Looking at that standings, things are really skewed by games in hand right now.  In such a small division, with so many head to head games, I don't think you can say a team has x points in x games, so they will finsh with XX, basically just applying Point %.   

 

If you look at teams current records head to head, and then apply those records to remaining games, this is how things shake out (point % way in brackets):
 

Leafs            73 Points   (75)

Jets              71 Points    (73)

Oilers            63 points   (67)

Habs             62 points   (66)

Flames         58 points   (58)

Canucks       56 points   (54)

 

Basically,

-the Oilers have beat up on the Sens, but only have 2 games left against them.  They are under .500 against the rest of the field.  

-the Habs and beat up the Canucks, but only have 2 games left against them.  8 wins in 22 games vs the rest of the field

-the Canucks have been shredded vs the habs, but only have 2 games left against them.  We are 13-11-2 vs the rest of the field.

 

I ran these numbers, and was pretty surprised to see how much the head to head schedules close the gap.  For us to get to 62 point, we need 30 points in 23 games, or a 15-8 record.  With a full week off coming up, EP returning, and 4 left against the Sens, we are on the fringes of having a reasonable shot at this.  Next 4 games before that week off are absolutely critical.

 

 

['NucK™]

22 minutes ago, freshhprince95 said:

Ya well tell that to the guy who actually made this post

Oh I know - just agreeing with you.

[Gurn]

30	19	9	2	40	.667	16	19	102	79	+23	10-5-1	9-4-1	0-0	5-5-0	L2
2  Winnipeg	29	18	9	2	38	.655	12	18	97	85	+12	10-5-1	8-4-1	0-1	6-3-1	W1
3  Edmonton	32	19	13	0	38	.594	18	19	110	94	+16	10-8-0	9-5-0	0-0	5-5-0	W1
4  Montréal	29	13	8	8	34	.586	13	13	93	80	+13	5-5-1	8-3-7	0-3	4-2-4	OT1
5  Vancouver	33	15	16	2	32	.485	11	12	92	104	-12	9-7-2	6-9-0	3-0	7-3-0	W3
6  Calgary	30	14	13	3	31	.517	12	13	83	92	-9	8-5-1	6-8-2	1-1	5-4-1	L1
7  Ottawa	33	10	20	3	23	.348	6	8	87	130	-43	6-6-3	4-14-0	2-1	3-5-2	OT2

 

figure Ottawa for last place as they are 9 points back of Vancouver, with the same games played.

All they have to do is catch 2 of:

Calagary, 1 point back with 3 games in hand

Montreal 2 points up, with 4 games in hand

Edmonton 6 points up, with 1 game in hand

Winnipeg 6 points up, with 4 games in hand

Toronto 8 points up, with 3 games in hand 

 

To me, it is too many points, or too many games in hand, or both.

Then add in the fact that every time 2 teams we are trying to catch, play each other some one gets two points and occasionaly the loser gets a point too.

Tonight schedule has Edmonton playing Winnipeg, leaves one of those teams up 8 points with no games in hand for Edmonton, and 3 games in hand for Winnipeg.

But then there is the extra OT, point posiblility.

 

I'm hopeful,  but not optomistic.

['NucK™]

28 minutes ago, gurn said:

30	19	9	2	40	.667	16	19	102	79	+23	10-5-1	9-4-1	0-0	5-5-0	L2
2  Winnipeg	29	18	9	2	38	.655	12	18	97	85	+12	10-5-1	8-4-1	0-1	6-3-1	W1
3  Edmonton	32	19	13	0	38	.594	18	19	110	94	+16	10-8-0	9-5-0	0-0	5-5-0	W1
4  Montréal	29	13	8	8	34	.586	13	13	93	80	+13	5-5-1	8-3-7	0-3	4-2-4	OT1
5  Vancouver	33	15	16	2	32	.485	11	12	92	104	-12	9-7-2	6-9-0	3-0	7-3-0	W3
6  Calgary	30	14	13	3	31	.517	12	13	83	92	-9	8-5-1	6-8-2	1-1	5-4-1	L1
7  Ottawa	33	10	20	3	23	.348	6	8	87	130	-43	6-6-3	4-14-0	2-1	3-5-2	OT2

 

figure Ottawa for last place as they are 9 points back of Vancouver, with the same games played.

All they have to do is catch 2 of:

Calagary, 1 point back with 3 games in hand

Montreal 2 points up, with 4 games in hand

Edmonton 6 points up, with 1 game in hand

Winnipeg 6 points up, with 4 games in hand

Toronto 8 points up, with 3 games in hand 

 

To me, it is too many points, or too many games in hand, or both.

Then add in the fact that every time 2 teams we are trying to catch, play each other some one gets two points and occasionaly the loser gets a point too.

Tonight schedule has Edmonton playing Winnipeg, leaves one of those teams up 8 points with no games in hand for Edmonton, and 3 games in hand for Winnipeg.

But then there is the extra OT, point posiblility.

 

I'm hopeful,  but not optomistic.

I find it funny that the "odds" currently show a 6.9% chance for Van, and a 58% chance for Calg, of making the playoffs.. Calgary is a .500 team.. so fair to assume they get an extra 3 points from those 3 games in hand, giving them 34 points vs. our 32. So my question is, how the hell does being a single W behind make our odds of making the playoffs over 50% lower than Calgary's?? To me it just shows that all these predictors are just a farce. lets just watch some hockey and enjoy it. Can't wait for this weekend's games 

[Gurn]

Calgary is a bit better than 500 at .517 and the Canucks are a bit worse than .500 at .485;  if that pace continues the gap gets bigger.

['NucK™]

4 minutes ago, gurn said:

Calgary is a bit better than 500 at .517 and the Canucks are a bit worse than .500 at .485;  if that pace continues the gap gets bigger.

I get that.. but when a 1-2 game swing could change that entirely and there are still 23-26 games to go for those teams, it's ridiculous to me to claim that Calg has a 50% higher chance of making the playoffs. 

 

I understand the data supports those numbers but what is a farce is how much stake people put on these % odds 

[Gurn]

3 minutes ago, 'NucK™ said:

I understand the data supports those numbers but what is a farce is how much stake people put on these % odds 

But if the data supports the numbers how can if be a farce?

I don't know what formula was used to obtain these precentage odds you are talking about, but garbage in will equal garbage out.

['NucK™]

Just now, gurn said:

But if the data supports the numbers how can if be a farce?

I don't know what formula was used to obtain these precentage odds you are talking about, but garbage in will equal garbage out.

I literally just said that what I think is a farce is how much stake people put on these odds.. when it's quite possible for these two teams projections to be completely inverse of each other less than a week from now, how can you claim that one team has a 6.9% chance while the other has a 58% chance? The reality is that both teams have a <50% chance to make the playoffs (by the way, 5 Canadian teams have odds >50% which further proves my point that the whole thing is a farce)

[Gurn]

3 minutes ago, 'NucK™ said:

when it's quite possible for these two teams projections to be completely inverse of each other less than a week from now,

It is possible, but unlikely, thus the odds. Less than a week from now, it is more likely the odds makers were right than wrong.

It is possible that I'll get to fly to the moon, it is however very unlikely.

 

['NucK™]

7 minutes ago, gurn said:

It is possible, but unlikely, thus the odds. Less than a week from now, it is more likely the odds makers were right than wrong.

It is possible that I'll get to fly to the moon, it is however very unlikely.

 

please explain to me how FIVE teams in the same division with FOUR playoff spots, all have a higher chance of making the playoffs than missing them then? 

[Gurn]

28 minutes ago, 'NucK™ said:

please explain to me how FIVE teams in the same division with FOUR playoff spots, all have a higher chance of making the playoffs than missing them then? 

I'm not a statastician, but perhaps the loser points have something to do with it?

Truly need a math guru to figure it out.

['NucK™]

2 minutes ago, gurn said:

I'm not a statastician, but perhaps the loser points have something to do with it?

Truly need a math guru to figure it out.

I mean to truly figure it out, sure.. but you don't need to be a math guru or a statistician to know that 5 teams cannot all be considered probable to make the playoffs when there are only 4 spots 

[oldnews]

13 minutes ago, gurn said:

I'm not a statastician, but perhaps the loser points have something to do with it?

Truly need a math guru to figure it out.

math gurus can only calculate odds though.

 

what they can't do is predict the future.

 

ie

 

These models can't  predict things like the Leafs' hard slide recently - where Winnipeg could overtake them with the two games they have in hand.

Not long ago the Leafs were getting - once again (it happens year after year) - pencilled in as first month Stanley Cup Champions.

The Jets are a mere two pts back - with 2 in hand.  How much have the 'odds' changed in the past few weeks?

 

The models don't really / can't really account for the streakiness that is inherent to the game.  It happens every year - 10 game stretches can and do fundamentally change the trajectories of teams.   Of course none of that negates the reality that a team like Vancouver simply must go on a sustained tear  - and conversely, some teams simply cannot buck the 'odds', while others in fact do go on tears (or slides).... What were the Leafs odds of winning the division a few weeks ago?   Today?  

For me there is little in sport that is less interesting than trying to precook team results.

Bottom line - the first month was hard to watch (and I have my reasons for not putting too much stock in those results, or the causes of those losses - which I think were correctible and largely have been) -  but since that point, I am loving watching this team.   Those, really, are my 'expectations' - I want to see this young team be competitive - and beyond that I am not going to put too much pressure on them to continue to achieve great results.  If a person is not happy with their playoff success - and the last month of this team's performance, I'm not sure there's much that can be said or done - it comes down largely to the disposition they've chosen.

Edited March 18, 2021 by oldnews

[khay]

15 minutes ago, 'NucK™ said:

I mean to truly figure it out, sure.. but you don't need to be a math guru or a statistician to know that 5 teams cannot all be considered probable to make the playoffs when there are only 4 spots 

Yeah clearly something doesn’t add up. 
 

the law of probability says, the probability of all outcomes must add up to... 100! No need for a mathematician or statistician to know that. Clearly it didn’t so yes, it’s a farce. I would pay no attention to these so-called odds. 

[oldnews]

2 hours ago, gurn said:

30	19	9	2	40	.667	16	19	102	79	+23	10-5-1	9-4-1	0-0	5-5-0	L2
2  Winnipeg	29	18	9	2	38	.655	12	18	97	85	+12	10-5-1	8-4-1	0-1	6-3-1	W1
3  Edmonton	32	19	13	0	38	.594	18	19	110	94	+16	10-8-0	9-5-0	0-0	5-5-0	W1
4  Montréal	29	13	8	8	34	.586	13	13	93	80	+13	5-5-1	8-3-7	0-3	4-2-4	OT1
5  Vancouver	33	15	16	2	32	.485	11	12	92	104	-12	9-7-2	6-9-0	3-0	7-3-0	W3
6  Calgary	30	14	13	3	31	.517	12	13	83	92	-9	8-5-1	6-8-2	1-1	5-4-1	L1
7  Ottawa	33	10	20	3	23	.348	6	8	87	130	-43	6-6-3	4-14-0	2-1	3-5-2	OT2

 

figure Ottawa for last place as they are 9 points back of Vancouver, with the same games played.

All they have to do is catch 2 of:

Calagary, 1 point back with 3 games in hand

Montreal 2 points up, with 4 games in hand

Edmonton 6 points up, with 1 game in hand

Winnipeg 6 points up, with 4 games in hand

Toronto 8 points up, with 3 games in hand 

 

To me, it is too many points, or too many games in hand, or both.

Then add in the fact that every time 2 teams we are trying to catch, play each other some one gets two points and occasionaly the loser gets a point too.

Tonight schedule has Edmonton playing Winnipeg, leaves one of those teams up 8 points with no games in hand for Edmonton, and 3 games in hand for Winnipeg.

But then there is the extra OT, point posiblility.

 

I'm hopeful,  but not optomistic.

I think that's a great 'disposition' / or way of putting it.  

I don't 'expect' them to overcome the hole the first month dug, but I also don't write them off prematurely.

 

 

['NucK™]

6 minutes ago, khay said:

Yeah clearly something doesn’t add up. 
 

the law of probability says, the probability of all outcomes must add up to... 100! No need for a mathematician or statistician to know that. Clearly it didn’t so yes, it’s a farce. I would pay no attention to these so-called odds. 

They are just far too temperamental to bother putting much stock into. The fact that your playoff odds can literally triple over a time period of a few days, obviously means they weren't very accurate to start with

[Provost]

3 hours ago, 'NucK™ said:

I literally just said that what I think is a farce is how much stake people put on these odds.. when it's quite possible for these two teams projections to be completely inverse of each other less than a week from now, how can you claim that one team has a 6.9% chance while the other has a 58% chance? The reality is that both teams have a <50% chance to make the playoffs (by the way, 5 Canadian teams have odds >50% which further proves my point that the whole thing is a farce)

The answer is don't look at Moneypuck.  Just because something is at the top of Google, it doesn't make it the best resource.

There are explanations of their model and it isn't up to snuff.  There is a reason it is always a huge outlier compared with the other ones.