[Edited] Bottom 5 Finish Now in Reach!

[Convincing John]

Wrong thread 

Edited March 20, 2021 by Convincing John

[Goal:thecup]

2 hours ago, Provost said:

So those are a lot of words to say that you don’t actually have anything of substance to provide, just more diatribe.

 

What exactly was “ mathematically unreasonable” about my OP or ensuring posts?  Providing the actual math is unreasonable?  The playoffs weren’t likely out of reach?  The playoffs didn’t get even farther out of reach after the OP?  Those are objective facts.

 

Come on, I keep giving you opportunities to actually back up anything you are saying... you refuse to, presumably because you just enjoy going on tirades and don’t care about objective reality.

 

When I started this thread, the most generous models said between 10-17% chance to make the playoffs.  Those were bad odds, exactly what I said.  Since then (despite an 8-2 run that has suddenly got everyone hot and bothered again), our chances are even less at between 5-12.6%.  Many folks got onboard and acknowledged our extremely poor playoff odds were true, some folks are getting off again with a winning streak.  The truth is we were always going to win some games and lose some games, the net change in odds just had to be really big, and it hasn’t (as predicted by the math and me).

 

So ya, the playoffs were likely out of reach and are still out of reach.
 

Have a good day.

Flail away; I'm done with your nonsense.

[Provost]

3 hours ago, Me_ said:

...and then burned the town down.

 

Different night.

 

I was watching that game in a friends apartment in the West End.
 

I entirely disagree with it being fine until the police showed up.  We saw what was happening and had to get from near Stanley Park to Granville to meet a friend and get out of dodge. We saw police at Robson and Thurlow (I think) repeatedly push people back and they just kept coming forward again.  Everyone had many chances to leave, like we did.... but more just kept pouring into downtown to cause trouble.

[Me_]

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Edited March 21, 2021 by Me_

[Me_]

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Edited March 21, 2021 by Me_

[Me_]

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Edited March 21, 2021 by Me_

[RogersTowell]

4 hours ago, RU SERIOUS said:

11.9% now from 5.6% 10 days ago - according to MoneyPuck.    Still looks like Golfing to me in a few weeks - although I'd love to see them pull off a miracle!

If they play like they have so far in March, they make it. If they play like February, they're vying with Ottawa.  Anything in between, who knows?

[DSVII]

We did good gaining ground on MTL this month  but we needed to beat them in regulation. These last set of games didn't help us.  Odds are about 12-18% now. To make it we have to get past two or Mtl, edm, cgy.

 

We need to keep this level of play up and hope one of edm or mtl slide. 

 

 

 

Edited March 21, 2021 by DSVII

[CanucksJay]

1 hour ago, DSVII said:

We did good gaining ground on MTL this month  but we needed to beat them in regulation. These last set of games didn't help us.  Odds are about 12-18% now. To make it we have to get past two or Mtl, edm, cgy.

 

We need to keep this level of play up and hope one of edm or mtl slide. 

 

 

 

I think the team that has the highest likelihood to choke is Edmonton. Also they are essentially a 2 man team so with one key injury, their playoff chances are in jeopardy. 

We have very similar amount of games played and if they lose tonight, they're only 5 pts up with one less game played while we play them 5 more times head to head. 

A 3-1-1 record would tie them but they would have the wins tie breaker and have 1 game in hand so yeah, maybe we need to go 4-1

 

That sounds pretty tough but they need to treat it like a playoff series and I can see Vancouver winning a series 4-1. 

[oldnews]

4 hours ago, Convincing John said:

Wrong thread 

exactly.

[CanucksJay]

Lol... Well today sucked... 

[Canuckfanforlife82]

1 hour ago, CanucksJay said:

Lol... Well today sucked... 

Ya but it's what you get when you only show up for part of the season. It will be a good learning experience and maybe they won't take games for granted next year. Remember in the beginning they kept on saying it's early and that they weren't worried well this season is a good lesson learned. Play the whole season like you don't have the next game to make things right.

[khay]

MTL is 1-3-0 against the flames. With five games left to play.  I feel like Darryl Sutters style will be able to stifle the Habs hockey. 
 

And they are 1-3-0 against the Leafs with six games left. 
 

Montreal could easily go 2-9 or 3-8 in those eleven games. 
 

We will see how they hold up against the Oilers, but with the way McDavid is playing, I think the Oilers have a shot at winning the division. Rest of the team is playing solid structured Tippet hockey around McD. I don’t see the Habs doing better than .500 against the Oilers. 
 

I think they will blow their games in hand pretty soon. 
 

The only thing is we need to make sure to beat Calgary and Ottawa then go .500 against the rest. 
 

A tall task but it’s going to be fun to watch this team compete for the playoffs.  
 

[Provost]

5 minutes ago, khay said:

MTL is 1-3-0 against the flames. With five games left to play.  I feel like Darryl Sutters style will be able to stifle the Habs hockey. 
 

And they are 1-3-0 against the Leafs with six games left. 
 

Montreal could easily go 2-9 or 3-8 in those eleven games. 
 

We will see how they hold up against the Oilers, but with the way McDavid is playing, I think the Oilers have a shot at winning the division. Rest of the team is playing solid structured Tippet hockey around McD. I don’t see the Habs doing better than .500 against the Oilers. 
 

I think they will blow their games in hand pretty soon. 
 

The only thing is we need to make sure to beat Calgary and Ottawa then go .500 against the rest. 
 

A tall task but it’s going to be fun to watch this team compete for the playoffs.  
 

If Calgary beats Montreal for their 5 games... how do you plan on catching Calgary?

 

It doesn’t do us any good for one team to fall apart if it is giving up points to another team we have to catch?

[DeNiro]

2 minutes ago, Provost said:

If Calgary beats Montreal for their 5 games... how do you plan on catching Calgary?

 

It doesn’t do us any good for one team to fall apart if it is giving up points to another team we have to catch?

In that scenario we’d have to reel in the Oilers or Jets.

[Provost]

6 hours ago, DeNiro said:

In that scenario we’d have to reel in the Oilers or Jets.

Ya, I just wasn’t sure how the suggestion presented worked for helping us get to the playoffs.

 

The entire issue is that these teams we are chasing play each other a lot coming up so are going to get points.  Scenarios where just one of them fall off the pace don’t really help us.

 

While our team is doing its part, the teams ahead of us are almost all playing right around .500 or above and spreading the points between them pretty evenly.  That makes it almost impossible to catch up.  We need two of them to do play badly.

 

The teams we need to catch up to are 6-8 games above .500, we have crawled back to .500 but need to gain the rest in only 21 games.  

[IBatch]

11 minutes ago, Provost said:

Ya, I just wasn’t sure how the suggestion presented worked for helping us get to the playoffs.

 

The entire issue is that these teams we are chasing play each other a lot coming up so are going to get points.  Scenarios where just one of them fall off the pace don’t really help us.

 

While our team is doing its part, the teams ahead of us are almost all playing right around .500 or above and spreading the points between them pretty evenly.  That makes it almost impossible to catch up.  We need two of them to do play badly.

 

The teams we need to catch up to are 6-8 games above .500, we have crawled back to .500 but need to gain the rest in only 21 games.  

For sure it's tough ... but it's hockey and stranger things have happened.    The fact we actually clawed our way back to .500 is pretty impressive.   Have zero doubts over an 82 games schedule we'd have much trouble securing a spot... 21 games left ... strictly points wise 63-65 should be enough.   In that case we'd need 28-30 of 42 points - OR basically keep at close to the last 11 games ... the rest of the season at around 7-3 over ten game game blocks would do it.   Demko is for sure the main reason we are were we are now ... we have a couple back to backs remaining and rest wise a favourable schedule, and thankfully, no more MTL (who's a key reason we are in the mess we are in right now).     On MTL...They better hope they don't tie anyone for the last spot or they will almost certainly lose.   Would be sweet redemption if we did and our RW and ROW both were higher by then... based on the last ten games those columns will also get a big boost if Demko can keep his heroic up to the end of the season.

 

Wont be the first time either ... way back in the mid 70's, Suitcase Smith put the team on his back and got serious Hart consideration for his efforts. 

 

As an aside - this is just a fun topic given the hope it offers to fans,  some posters are taking it a little too seriously, Provost set himself up to be teased, and sure whomever that CDCer is understands it's all in good fun (the teasing) and that anyone who's offended by the accuracy of the topic (yes we are screwed, but who doesn't like an underdog story) that it's the reality of the situation.   

 

One last thing.   With Covid still doing its thing, and some US teams way behind teams like us in games played and a lot of ground to make up.... don't be surprised if play-ins occur.   In that respect the  Canucks dragged their asses to .500, but over the next ten or so games simply must drag that up even further just in case.   If i was a manager in the NHL i'd be pushing very hard to make the play-ins a permanent thing. 

 

Why? Playoff revenue far exceeds regular revenue once the gates open, as does the TV viewership/advertising revenues.   This is a golden ticket to use one more time.   21 teams is a lot better then 16....plus a five round playoff atmosphere added....as far as fans go it also gives them more hope too.   MTL last year for example.   And the biggest thing is the cup is more accessible to the middle of the row teams, or a team that underachieved that year, or the opposite.   I'd make an 80 game schedule and make it permanent.   Too many darn teams now ... getting to the point you almost need two cups.    

[khay]

6 hours ago, Provost said:

If Calgary beats Montreal for their 5 games... how do you plan on catching Calgary?

 

It doesn’t do us any good for one team to fall apart if it is giving up points to another team we have to catch?

We still have 4 games left against Calgary, those are 16 point games.

 

In that extreme event where Calgary goes 5-0-0 against Montreal, we need to go 4-0-0 against Calgary.

 

With 0 games left against Montreal, we can't catch them unless we get help and that means we need help from our enemy. 

 

And my guess is Calgary goes 3-1-1 against Montreal and we need to go 3-1-0 against the Flames.

 

As I said, it's still a tall task. But there is a path to catching Montreal even though we've got no games left against them.

 

 

[KirkSave]

17 hours ago, Provost said:

the playoffs were likely out of reach and are still out of reach

first statement seemed to be the case when this thread was put forward and we were playing awful

 

second statement is not the case. the playoffs are still within reach and based on how we've been playing (Demko in particular) and the fact we will have more rest and time to practice, it's within reach but aside from us winning, the teams we are chasing will need to have some hiccups too-all entirely possible

 

this group battles hard for one another and they know first hand, you just got to get to the dance and from there, lots can happen

 

GCG!

[khay]

45 minutes ago, Provost said:

Ya, I just wasn’t sure how the suggestion presented worked for helping us get to the playoffs.

 

The entire issue is that these teams we are chasing play each other a lot coming up so are going to get points.  Scenarios where just one of them fall off the pace don’t really help us.

 

While our team is doing its part, the teams ahead of us are almost all playing right around .500 or above and spreading the points between them pretty evenly.  That makes it almost impossible to catch up.  We need two of them to do play badly.

 

The teams we need to catch up to are 6-8 games above .500, we have crawled back to .500 but need to gain the rest in only 21 games.  

You are right. It's not going to be easy. But one of those teams isn't really 6-8 games above .500.

 

Montreal is 6-0-3 against us so, 8-8-6 against the rest of the division, exactly at .500.

 

We are 3-5-1 against Montreal so, 13-11-2 against the rest of the division, two games over .500 despite the horrible start.

 

We are basically in this mess because of our struggles against Montreal.

 

The good news is we don't play them anymore so we can't gift them more points. Bad news is we don't play them anymore so no more 4 point games and we can't help ourselves to catch them.

 

We need Montreal to play below .500 and I think they will. Montreal's record isn't as good as it seems against the rest of the division as I pointed out, combined with tough schedule? To see how tough Montreal's schedule is, they need to play 27 games in the next 48 days and it includes 4 back-to-backs and playing every other night. On the contrary, we have 2 back-to-backs left.

 

The best scenario is if Toronto goes 4-2-0 or better against Montreal, Montreal basically loses their games in hands on us giving us a chance to catch them. Another possibility is Calgary beating Montreal but as you said, that puts Calgary above us and we don't want Calgary going 5-0-0 against the Habs. But, we still have 4 games left against them to help ourselves against Calgary so we still want Calgary to stop Habs taking >= 5 points out of 10 points.

 

Anyhow, the point is that I think the Habs are going to miss the playoffs and it will be us or Calgary that makes it in. We just have to duke it out against Calgary for that final spot. By the time we come out of 1-week break to play against Calgary, the two teams will have played the same number of games although Calgary is likely to have 3-5 points more than us. And, as fate has it, the last game of the season is against the Flames. Wouldn't it be exciting if the last playoff spot came down to that one game and we beat them to get in? That would be epic.

 

I think despite our terrible start, the boys have done well to compete and made it more interesting. I think there still is a path to the playoffs although it will be hard.

 

I'm more worried about whether we can maintain this pace because of the dumb defensive style that the coaches have the players playing. Can our team continue to play this wretched defensive style and players avoid injuries and extreme fatigue to finish this stretch run? Can Demko continue to play over .930 save percentage? And how will we fare in the upcoming 7 game road trip?