'NucK™ Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 16 minutes ago, Provost said: The answer is don't look at Moneypuck. Just because something is at the top of Google, it doesn't make it the best resource. There are explanations of their model and it isn't up to snuff. There is a reason it is always a huge outlier compared with the other ones. I don't personally look at any of those sites.. those are just the #'s that I have seen going around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fanfor42 Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 10 hours ago, khay said: Yeah clearly something doesn’t add up. the law of probability says, the probability of all outcomes must add up to... 100! No need for a mathematician or statistician to know that. Clearly it didn’t so yes, it’s a farce. I would pay no attention to these so-called odds. Each of 7 teams are given a unique percentage chance at making the playoffs. If you add up each team's percentage and divide by 7 the answer needs to be 4/7ths or .5714 (which represents the average chance for each team in the division to make the playoffs). If that is true then the stat is accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanucks25 Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 Apparently we have a 71% chance currently of both not making the playoffs and not picking in the top-5 of the draft. Hopefully we get some lottery luck for once. The only two teams that have it worse are the Rangers @ 78% and the Yotes @ 83% lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted March 19, 2021 Author Share Posted March 19, 2021 8 hours ago, fanfor42 said: Each of 7 teams are given a unique percentage chance at making the playoffs. If you add up each team's percentage and divide by 7 the answer needs to be 4/7ths or .5714 (which represents the average chance for each team in the division to make the playoffs). If that is true then the stat is accurate. You are right, the odds actually likely add up to 400%. They are competing for four playoff spots, not one... so the odds won’t add up to 100%. Moneypuck has a bit of an outdated model, but their basic math should be good. Our recent 7-3 run has moved us up from about 5% to 10% on most of the odds sites. The path is still needing to maintain our level of play the rest of the season (all hail Thatcher!) AND having both Montreal and Calgary fall off a cliff. They play each other a bunch of times (5 of their remaining 26/27 games) still so have a lot of guaranteed points between them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBatch Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCNate Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 We could be 4 points behind the oilers this time tomorrow night. Same games played, and a far easier schedule going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spur1 Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 Can you smell what JB is cooking? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teepain Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 4th place, i can smelll it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spook007 Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 On 3/18/2021 at 6:42 PM, gurn said: It is possible, but unlikely, thus the odds. Less than a week from now, it is more likely the odds makers were right than wrong. It is possible that I'll get to fly to the moon, it is however very unlikely. Absolutely .... bookmakers does this for a living, and are pretty good at it. Not always right, but more often than not. However.... This year is weird and definitely different, so keep winning and who knows.... 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
appleboy Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 There is always shifts on the leader board as teams have winning and losing streaks. Right now some of the teams ahead of us have struggled and we have won 8 out of 10. We will need to maintain this pace if we are to make the playoffs. You can be sure that the teams ahead of us will get rolling again. Injuries will also rear their ugly head. For us and those that we are chasing. Maybe Petey will come back at 100% or be done for the year. Demko has been amazing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goal:thecup Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 On 3/16/2021 at 1:17 PM, Provost said: I don't think anyone would be happier than me if Demko somehow dragged us into the post season with his play. You are so full of it! Everybody will be happier than you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurn Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 On 3/2/2021 at 12:26 PM, gurn said: IF Ottawa beats Montreal in regular time tonight. Ottawa 19 points 25 games played Montreal 23 points 21 games played If Vancouver beats Winnipeg in regular time tonight: Winnipeg 27 points in 22 games Vancouver 22 points in 26 games So even the best outcomes from tonight leave the Canucks in serious trouble. 3 points up on Ottawa, but they have 1 game in hand Tied with Calgary, but they have 3 games in hand 1 point behind Montreal, but they have 5 games in hand 5 points behind Winnipeg, but they have 4 games in hand 6 points behind Edmonton, but they have 2 games in hand 14 points behind Toronto, but they have 3 games in hand Stick a fork in this season, it is done. Trade what they can, play as many of the youngins as possible. 18 days later: Firstly Winnipeg beat Vancouver on March 2/21 So it is 2 losses, 3 regulation wins, 2 O.T. wins and 2 S.O. wins for a record of 7-2 Standings are now 11 points up on Ottawa, They have 1 game in hand We gained 8 points same games in hand 1 point up on Calgary They have 3 games in hand We gained 1 point same games in hand 1 point behind Montreal They have 4 games in hand We gained 0 points gained 1 game in hand 4 points behind Winnipeg They have 4 games in hand We gained 1 point same games in hand 6 points behind Edmonton They have 1 game in hand We gained 0 points gained 1 game in hand 6 points behind Toronto They have 3 games in hand We gained 8 points same games in hand We went 7-2, gained 8 point on Ottawa and Toronto 1 point on Calgary and Winnipeg and 1 game in hand on Montreal and Edmonton. 22 games left and it took 9 games to gain 1 point or 1 game in hand, on the play off rivals. It has been fun watching the team, but I'm putting no money down on them making the play offs; unless I get ridiculous odds. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted March 20, 2021 Author Share Posted March 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Goal:thecup said: You are so full of it! Everybody will be happier than you. You are a pretty sad person to have literally spent the last couple hours going through all my old posts to react negatively to them. You need to go for a walk or something dude. I will be ecstatic if we make the playoffs. You are conflating the reality of very long playoff odds with folks wanting the team to win. (yes, they are still very long odds even after a remarkable 8-2 run.. the fact we are still well out of it after that 8-2 run of games pretty much makes the entire point of the thread. Huge run and we still only climbed a little of the gap and are currently sitting at about a 12.6% chance of making the playoffs) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted March 20, 2021 Author Share Posted March 20, 2021 (edited) 16 minutes ago, gurn said: 18 days later: Firstly Winnipeg beat Vancouver on March 2/21 So it is 2 losses, 3 regulation wins, 2 O.T. wins and 2 S.O. wins for a record of 7-2 Standings are now 11 points up on Ottawa, They have 1 game in hand We gained 8 points same games in hand 1 point up on Calgary They have 3 games in hand We gained 1 point same games in hand 1 point behind Montreal They have 4 games in hand We gained 0 points gained 1 game in hand 4 points behind Winnipeg They have 4 games in hand We gained 1 point same games in hand 6 points behind Edmonton They have 1 game in hand We gained 0 points gained 1 game in hand 6 points behind Toronto They have 3 games in hand We gained 8 points same games in hand We went 7-2, gained 8 point on Ottawa and Toronto 1 point on Calgary and Winnipeg and 1 game in hand on Montreal and Edmonton. 22 games left and it took 9 games to gain 1 point or 1 game in hand, on the play off rivals. It has been fun watching the team, but I'm putting no money down on them making the play offs; unless I get ridiculous odds. Yep, that was the math when this thread started as well. Once you got well behind the pack (not just one team), the ability to climb back is remarkably hard because all those teams you are chasing play each other a lot and are guaranteed points. We need to play really well, PLUS we need Toronto and Winnipeg to be taking all the points away from the teams that are more in reach. Half of that happened, but Toronto didn't do their part and gave away points to teams we are chasing. Looking ahead, Montreal and Calgary play each other a bunch. That makes it really hard for us to pass them both, as one (or both) of those teams will get points out of those meetings. It is much better to have a 12.6% chance of making the playoffs than the 4.6% chance we had a while back... but it is still really long odds. Going 8-2 is all we can ask of the boys realistically and even that is almost certainly unsustainable for the rest of the season. We need the other chips to fall our way as well. Ottawa needs to steal points from teams we are chasing and Toronto and Winnipeg need to start taking points (but not from us). Toronto plays Calgary/Edmonton/Montreal 12 times coming up. They need to win most of those games, and need to lose most of the 3 games they play against us. Winnipeg plays those teams 9 times coming up. They need to win most of those games, and they need to lose most of the 4 they play against us. Edited March 20, 2021 by Provost 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanucksJay Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, Provost said: Yep, that was the math when this thread started as well. Once you got well behind the pack (not just one team), the ability to climb back is remarkably hard because all those teams you are chasing play each other a lot and are guaranteed points. We need to play really well, PLUS we need Toronto and Winnipeg to be taking all the points away from the teams that are more in reach. Half of that happened, but Toronto didn't do their part and gave away points to teams we are chasing. Looking ahead, Montreal and Calgary play each other a bunch. That makes it really hard for us to pass them both, as one (or both) of those teams will get points out of those meetings. It is much better to have a 12.6% chance of making the playoffs than the 4.6% chance we had a while back... but it is still really long odds. Going 8-2 is all we can ask of the boys realistically and even that is almost certainly unsustainable for the rest of the season. We need the other chips to fall our way as well. Ottawa needs to steal points from teams we are chasing and Toronto and Winnipeg need to start taking points (but not from us). No kidding... Even after such a huge run, we've made up very little ground. I know you're a huge fan and it's not like you're anti Canucks. You're simply speaking to stats and percentages. With 22 games left, I believe another way of looking at it is that we need to go 15-6-1 to make the playoffs. Huge games are OTT x 4 (need to win all) Oilers x 5 (need to Go 4-1) Flames x 4 (need to go 3-1) That's going 11-2 in those games. Remaining games against Mtl, Toronto and Winnipeg we need to go 4-4-1 Doesn't have to be exactly this but we if we can gain points against oiler and flames in our head to heads, bouts us in a good spot. We're only 60% through the season and playing like a completely different team than when we started Conversely if Oilers or Flames go in a slump, things can change really quickly as well. This is the year when there will be much bigger swings due to condensed schedule and the sheer amount of 4 pt games. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBatch Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 (edited) 6 hours ago, appleboy said: There is always shifts on the leader board as teams have winning and losing streaks. Right now some of the teams ahead of us have struggled and we have won 8 out of 10. We will need to maintain this pace if we are to make the playoffs. You can be sure that the teams ahead of us will get rolling again. Injuries will also rear their ugly head. For us and those that we are chasing. Maybe Petey will come back at 100% or be done for the year. Demko has been amazing. One thing we have in our back pocket is better rest time now. Teams at the top won't let off the gas completely - but you can be assured a little that they will give guys maintenance days to heal bumps and bruises the closer we get to the playoffs too. TG and the coaching staff get nothing but grief on this site - pretty nuts really - last year we were dreadful against these teams, a lot less then .500. Maybe, just maybe, they are incredible coaches and have made the most of what they can do to prepare the team after a gong show of a start. Glad Aquaman showed solidarity on this front because without a little of that a black hole vaccume is created and the speculation is endless. Coaches rarely win games anyways. They have to be great managers at this level and that's about it. It's not like they can put on their skates and do it for them right? Motivation and preparation .... and of course they control the minutes / ice time. IF we somehow almost make the show (which in typical Canucks fashion is what i'm prepared for - suggest all fans do the same) does anyone think TG wont get a contract? I doubt he won't. Why not support instead of nag and nitpick and complain behind the "shield" of high standards. Back to the post i'm replying to. Demko keeps it up we make the playoffs as one of if not the hottest team in the league. Would give us a tremendous edge. Hope it happens. Van-TO...think the last time i've watched them play each other was 1994. Easy win just take out Mathews. Edit: Two posters said they'd tattoo Demko's face on various body parts ... i'm expecting pictures. Edited March 20, 2021 by IBatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goal:thecup Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 19 minutes ago, Provost said: You are a pretty sad person to have literally spent the last couple hours going through all my old posts to react negatively to them. You need to go for a walk or something dude.I will be ecstatic if we make the playoffs. You are conflating the reality of very long playoff odds with folks wanting the team to win. (yes, they are still very long odds even after a remarkable 8-2 run.. the fact we are still well out of it after that 8-2 run of games pretty much makes the entire point of the thread. Huge run and we still only climbed a little of the gap and are currently sitting at about a 12.6% chance of making the playoffs) Back pedal like crazy; it's not going to help; it is all there for all to read. (But maybe you deleted and edited and changed things, eh?) And I did read it all, not to put Paper Bags on your Fool Head, but to enjoy the show, like all the other popcorn-eaters in this thread; you got a problem with that? [Memo to Mods: Please bring back the Minus button. Also, it would be handy to have a different emojis for laughing at the poster than for laughing with them.] You made an ignorant (means uneducated, not stupid) post with an absolute claim that does not hold up to any reasonable analysis. Then you added that stinky cherry on top of all your abusive and egotistical, let alone juvenile and uneducated posts, that you would be happier than everybody (to be proven wrong). It was, and is, obvious to anyone with even a smattering of education in mathematics to determine that you were, and are, even despite your backpedaling, dead wrong. Rather than admit it, you attack everyone personally. So who is sad? The constant carper who erroneously thinks he knows everything and posts his ignorant conclusions on a Canuck forum? Or all the others who come on here to read about our Canucks and have a good time? I had a good time reading this thread; not because your input is correct, but because it was so ridiculous to pronounce your nonsense so early and with so much self-assumed authority that I was sure it was going to be a good time. It has been great to read you backtracking and squirming around, changing this and that, and all the while still believing in yourself. Well done, Blue Troll Ribbon for you. You will be ecstatic if we make the playoffs? What a joke! You will still be 'proving' you were right all along. But you are still encouraged to come along and enjoy the ride. But, please refrain from calling me anything (let alone 'a pretty sad person'; another thing you are 100% wrong about: my nickname isn't "Smiley" because I mope around with dire predictions full of crap). It is delicious ironing that your sad self is lashing out in such a small-minded manner. Sad in a way too, that you have to resort to this behavior to justify your place in this world. Provost: Runt of the Litter baying about no milk because the big dogs have all the teats. Please refrain from telling me what to do. If anyone needs to 'take a walk or something' it is you. You go for a walk, chill out, get over yourself, and quit attacking everybody else! It's not bad advice; just misdirected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 1 hour ago, gurn said: 18 days later: Firstly Winnipeg beat Vancouver on March 2/21 So it is 2 losses, 3 regulation wins, 2 O.T. wins and 2 S.O. wins for a record of 7-2 Standings are now 11 points up on Ottawa, They have 1 game in hand We gained 8 points same games in hand 1 point up on Calgary They have 3 games in hand We gained 1 point same games in hand 1 point behind Montreal They have 4 games in hand We gained 0 points gained 1 game in hand 4 points behind Winnipeg They have 4 games in hand We gained 1 point same games in hand 6 points behind Edmonton They have 1 game in hand We gained 0 points gained 1 game in hand 6 points behind Toronto They have 3 games in hand We gained 8 points same games in hand We went 7-2, gained 8 point on Ottawa and Toronto 1 point on Calgary and Winnipeg and 1 game in hand on Montreal and Edmonton. 22 games left and it took 9 games to gain 1 point or 1 game in hand, on the play off rivals. It has been fun watching the team, but I'm putting no money down on them making the play offs; unless I get ridiculous odds. Toronto has become a bit of a wild card. The Canucks have gained 10 pts on them in the last 7 games - opposite results (6-1 / 1-6). Maybe the last team they would have wanted/expected to make a gain like that on, but whatever, you take what you can. Either they 'help' us by winnging some games vs the teams we are chasing - or they could become one of those teams themselves if they continue to slide that hard (assuming Van can keep winning = a tall order without both EP and Beagle - but the break coming up might help...) Toronto has: 6 games remaining vs the Jets 6 vs Montreal 4 vs Calgary. 3 vs Ottawa (who have already beaten them 3 times). But any of the teams in the division could have a couple weeks like that - (including Vancouver - which would obviously seal their fate). Anyhow - that's not really my point. That part is unpredictable. My point is what is predictable. And that is Canuck luck. Their best deadline rental chip - has landed in 4 weeks of IR.... So it's largely moot at this point - not much / even less that is really at stake in the end - in terms of deadline decisions. With Pearson aside...what is at stake is even further reduced to renting Benn (I don't have high expectations of a return, if the team falls short) - and the question whether they re-up Sutter, perhaps depending on what his expectations are - or rent him and seek a replacement in the offseason (obviously there'd be a range of opinions on that but there remains that odd and unpredictable market that will matter far more than any opinion. I'd be happy if they managed to move Roussel - but I won't be 'expecting' a normal deadline.... Bottom line - I'm not sure that what's at stake is worth getting much of a rise out of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted March 20, 2021 Author Share Posted March 20, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Goal:thecup said: Back pedal like crazy; it's not going to help; it is all there for all to read. (But maybe you deleted and edited and changed things, eh?) And I did read it all, not to put Paper Bags on your Fool Head, but to enjoy the show, like all the other popcorn-eaters in this thread; you got a problem with that? [Memo to Mods: Please bring back the Minus button. Also, it would be handy to have a different emojis for laughing at the poster than for laughing with them.] You made an ignorant (means uneducated, not stupid) post with an absolute claim that does not hold up to any reasonable analysis. Then you added that stinky cherry on top of all your abusive and egotistical, let alone juvenile and uneducated posts, that you would be happier than everybody (to be proven wrong). It was, and is, obvious to anyone with even a smattering of education in mathematics to determine that you were, and are, even despite your backpedaling, dead wrong. Rather than admit it, you attack everyone personally. So who is sad? The constant carper who erroneously thinks he knows everything and posts his ignorant conclusions on a Canuck forum? Or all the others who come on here to read about our Canucks and have a good time? I had a good time reading this thread; not because your input is correct, but because it was so ridiculous to pronounce your nonsense so early and with so much self-assumed authority that I was sure it was going to be a good time. It has been great to read you backtracking and squirming around, changing this and that, and all the while still believing in yourself. Well done, Blue Troll Ribbon for you. You will be ecstatic if we make the playoffs? What a joke! You will still be 'proving' you were right all along. But you are still encouraged to come along and enjoy the ride. But, please refrain from calling me anything (let alone 'a pretty sad person'; another thing you are 100% wrong about: my nickname isn't "Smiley" because I mope around with dire predictions full of crap). It is delicious ironing that your sad self is lashing out in such a small-minded manner. Sad in a way too, that you have to resort to this behavior to justify your place in this world. Provost: Runt of the Litter baying about no milk because the big dogs have all the teats. Please refrain from telling me what to do. If anyone needs to 'take a walk or something' it is you. You go for a walk, chill out, get over yourself, and quit attacking everybody else! It's not bad advice; just misdirected. This long diatribe filled with anger, frustration and literally zero facts or evidence does nothing to help your argument that you aren’t sad and really need to go for a walk. You can happily go look for “edited” posts, they put the date edited on them for your easy reference. Please go find the posts I apparently made that suggest I want us to lose? You can get someone to do the math for you if you need... but the odds are still the odds. You call them uneducated, but haven’t included a single bit of evidence to provide any actual justification or citations to back that up? Just that it makes you sad and angry? The reason why I would be the happiest if we made it is because I would understand (clearly more than you and most others) how historic a climb that would have been. Based on most of the posts here, folks just think it is doable if a couple things fall our way. There was an article in the Athletic that no team in the history of the league had come back to make the playoffs with under a 5% playoff odds. If we did that, it would be the first time it ever happened. Us doing that would make me ecstatic. It is a little ironic, considering your user name, that I have to point out the goal is winning the Cup. Those lot odds we face are just to squeak into the playoffs, not to win the Cup. I expect our management to be focussing on the latter, not the former. If there are moves they can make which move the needle even a little towards improving our Cup chances in future years, I would like them to do that... even if it reduced our already remote chances of just making the playoffs this season. Edited March 20, 2021 by Provost 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogersTowell Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 On 3/11/2021 at 2:31 AM, RU SERIOUS said: We officially have a 5.6% chance of making the playoffs. Sorry to burst your balloon. Save your energy for the 21-22 season. So just out of curiosity, what is the chances of making the playoffs now? See how the world can change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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