[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks

[VegasCanuck]

Personally, I wouldn't trade Miller unless we're getting back 2 x 1st round picks, a blue chip prospect/young roster player and some other assorted bobbles / picks.

 

I'd be more inclined to offer him an extension as soon as we're able to start discussions.

 

I'd start contract discussions, considering he will be 30 when his current contract expires, something like:

 

Year 1: 8.5 million

Year 2: 8 million

Year 3: 7 million

Year 4: 6 million

Year 5: 5 million

 

34.5 million total, 6.9 million average

 

That would take him up to 35 years old.

[BPA]

4 minutes ago, VegasCanuck said:

Personally, I wouldn't trade Miller unless we're getting back 2 x 1st round picks, a blue chip prospect/young roster player and some other assorted bobbles / picks.

 

I'd be more inclined to offer him an extension as soon as we're able to start discussions.

 

I'd start contract discussions, considering he will be 30 when his current contract expires, something like:

 

Year 1: 8.5 million

Year 2: 8 million

Year 3: 7 million

Year 4: 6 million

Year 5: 5 million

 

34.5 million total, 6.9 million average

 

That would take him up to 35 years old.

What if Miller wants an $8.5M avg and longer term?  What then?

[Nucker 67]

Such tough decisions about Miller. On one hand, he's the perfect player and the Canucks should keep him. On the other, the Canucks would get a lot back in a trade.

 

The thing with trades though (player, prospects, picks), you never know how that's going to pan out. The prospects and picks might become nothing. The new player coming in might not find any chemistry and lose his game (Dickinson).  With Miller, they know exactly what they've got, and he's a team leader and their best forward player. He's probably still got 5-6 years of real good hockey left in him.  

 

I think for what it would cost another team to get Miller, there might not be a team willing to give that much. I think they should re-sign him.  $9 x 5

[Westcoastcanucks777]

Ive been thinking with all these comments ...letting it marinate in my brain(some more than others)....Who do we keep?: Miller and Normal Petey and trade the hustler Bo..?

 

I have to admit seeing miller play cool because he's such a rare player...do we still keep him and let him get old with us? 

 

Do you guys think Bo or Miller are better skaters my thinking is that Miller is way more of a natural skater and better hands in distributing the biscuit....

 

So do we want to get old with Bo or Millsey?

 

Im just glad we don't have weird Petey anymore...

[VegasCanuck]

9 minutes ago, BPA said:

What if Miller wants an $8.5M avg and longer term?  What then?

Then, we can always move him next season at the deadline. Right now, I would focus on the hear and now. We have him for another season at 5.25 million, and the way he's playing, there is zero reason to move him, unless another team decides to overpay in a really big way.

[BPA]

3 minutes ago, VegasCanuck said:

Then, we can always move him next season at the deadline. Right now, I would focus on the hear and now. We have him for another season at 5.25 million, and the way he's playing, there is zero reason to move him, unless another team decides to overpay in a really big way.

Yeah I get it.  Canucks can officially start negotiations this summer.

 

JR and PA have a lot of work to do to get the team into shape as perennial playoffs contenders.

 

Ideally, they keep some cap space available so that they can add rentals at trade deadline if need be.

[eeeeergh]

29 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

I think you are right. Miller is #10 in NHL scoring. If there is no commitment to resigning then he has to go. He is at maximum value. He could set up the Canucks in a major way for serious Cup contention in 2-3 years. 
 

That said it is always about what comes back. For the quality and versatility that Miller offers it has to be a fantastic deal. The assessment that JR and his new HO do on needs will tell the tale. Can they get what they need by dealing lesser lights than Miller or do they stroke for the fences? My guess is that they move Miller.

Yeah absolutely. I feel like with Miller, at the level he's playing at, its like a supercar buying experience vs a everyday car.

With a ferrari, you know you're overpaying, far beyond what it cost to make the car. And there's no haggling or negotiating. If you're buying one, you have the money to do it and don't really care that much about the cost.

With a everyday car, you're haggling, getting throwins, etc.

Miller's outperforming his contract by about 4m$/year, and they get him not only for this year, but for a potential run next year at the discounted cost. 

The price should be 4x 1st round pick equivalent assets. 

New York Rangers 1st, Schneider, Othmann, Kravtsov.

[Canucks Curse]

19 hours ago, flickyoursedin said:

LA Kings rumoured to be looking into a forward upgrade. They have a lot of Center prospects and a couple okay RHD. Would really love to get Vilardi and or Turcotte if they wanted one of our top forwards that might be on the block.

faber, Lambert, kapari

[Canucks Curse]

or just keep the giyu, who knows, maybe when he is 37 he will be Pevelskiing the sh&t out of other teams

[eeeeergh]

57 minutes ago, klw604 said:

Petterson

Miller

Horvat

Lammikko

 

None have great acceleration, Miller is probably the quickest,  they need fast skating wingers with skill on there lines to be effective,

 

That's why our fourth line, with Motte and Highmore has been very effective 

 

 

Horvat

Miller

Boeser

Petterson

Hughes

 

Our powerplay 1 is slow, they have a hard time setting up in the O-zone

 

 

 

 

I loved seeing Motte play up the lineup at times yesterday. He's fast and so good at forcing turnovers, we need like 2 more Mottes please.  

[Boudrias]

5 minutes ago, eeeeergh said:

Yeah absolutely. I feel like with Miller, at the level he's playing at, its like a supercar buying experience vs a everyday car.

With a ferrari, you know you're overpaying, far beyond what it cost to make the car. And there's no haggling or negotiating. If you're buying one, you have the money to do it and don't really care that much about the cost.

With a everyday car, you're haggling, getting throwins, etc.

Miller's outperforming his contract by about 4m$/year, and they get him not only for this year, but for a potential run next year at the discounted cost. 

The price should be 4x 1st round pick equivalent assets. 

New York Rangers 1st, Schneider, Othmann, Kravtsov.

I am shocked at how cheaply some fans are prepared to move Miller for. If there is a deal it has to be in the area you are suggesting.

[KKnight]

12 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

I am shocked at how cheaply some fans are prepared to move Miller for. If there is a deal it has to be in the area you are suggesting.

I still think the deal I would take is: 

 

Nyr: Miller

        Schenn

        3rd or 4th round pick 

 

Van: Schneider 

         Kravstov 

         Cuylle

         1st in 22  

 

Or 

 

Col: Miller 

 

Van: Newhook

         Byram 

        1st in 22 

        3rd in 23

      

 

I feel these 2 trades are fair as far as market value. 

[canucklehead44]

5 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

I am shocked at how cheaply some fans are prepared to move Miller for. If there is a deal it has to be in the area you are suggesting.

His value has increased substantially since we acquired him - going from 287 in league scoring to top 10 and adding faceoffs and more versatility to his game and making the same salary. 

O'Reilly coming off of 24 goals 61 points earning 7.5 million (123K per point) returned essentially two firsts, a 2nd, and a couple of third line players. Miller is on pace for 91 points at $5.25 million so around $58K per point. Now Reilly was younger and under contract for longer but in a salary cap world the difference is huge. 

 

I think at a minimum we should get a first, a top three team prospect, two second rounders, and a roster/nhl ready younger player. 

Rangers: 1st, 2nd, 2nd, Schneider, Chytil 

Toronto: 1st, 2nd, 2nd, Niemela,  Kase
Boston: 1st, 2nd, 2nd, Lohrei, Debrusk

Minnesota: 1st, 2nd, 2nd, Addison, Greenway 

 

[VegasCanuck]

28 minutes ago, BPA said:

Yeah I get it.  Canucks can officially start negotiations this summer.

 

JR and PA have a lot of work to do to get the team into shape as perennial playoffs contenders.

 

Ideally, they keep some cap space available so that they can add rentals at trade deadline if need be.

Teams make a mistake all the time of signing guys to contracts that run too late in their career for too much money. I think with the flat cap, there are a lot of teams that are starting to come around to the idea that it's not a good idea to go too long on contracts.

 

So, if Miller wanted 8.5 million, then I would say that it needs to be a 2 year contract.

 

If he wants to be playing for a number of years and wants that security as he gets older, then you do something where pay, matches what you expect to be his continuing level of production.

 

It's all give and take. 5 or 6 year deal, means that the pay at the end of the contract, comes down and you don't have trade protection at the end. So, if his production really fell off, you have a better chance of moving the contract to a cash strapped team, who can benefit from having a higher average cap hit, compared to actual cash out the door (see LE's contract)

 

Personally, I'd be completely good with something at 6 years, 40 million in total,  6.67 million cap hit, average. I think you'll notice, that even last summer, other than contracts for key defensemen, teams were not handing out really ridiculous contracts, they were keeping them reasonable. 

[Coconuts]

4 hours ago, Provost said:

Yep, every time I start getting over excited I just look at the rolling records for the last ten games for all the teams we are chasing.  That is how I also avoid getting too low and joining in the wailing and gnashing of teeth whenever we lose a couple games in a row.
 

Even playing as well as we are, we just aren’t catching up to them or gaining enough ground in the standings fast enough to make the math work.  We will just run out of runway.

 

Taking into account games in hand and winning percentages, we are about 6 points out of a wildcard spot.  We were 7 points out of a spot in November, so have managed to gain just one point in 3 months.  Just while we are idle for the next couple nights, the teams we are chasing play  a bunch of games (some against each other) which means we are likely even farther out before the team even hits the ice again.

 

In the last ten games we are  6-3-1 for 13 points

 

The teams we have been chasing are playing at the same level.

 

Dallas 6-3-1 for 13 points

Edmonton 6-4-0 for 12 points

Anaheim 5-3-2 for 12 points

LA 7-1-2 for 16 points 

Winnipeg 4-4-2 for 10 points

 

We have fewer than 30 games left which means we have to be beating all of these teams at a rate of  two or more points in each ten game span.

 

If it was just one or maybe two teams you can hope they slide and we can do that.  With a big pack and a lot of guaranteed points between them as they play each other, it is almost assured that a couple are going to go at least 6-3-1 to match our current winning rate.  Just that sinks our chances as we need to be making up ground and we have to instead be upping our win rate to 7-2-1 the rest of the way out to catch up.

 

If we happen to go just a respectable 5-5-0 in any stretch we lose ground and our chances are toast.  Or if ANY team ahead of us has also good stretch of 7-2-1… suddenly we have to be almost perfect to gain any ground.  If teams ahead of us have a few 3 point games, we are also in trouble.

 

All of that JUST to squeak into the last playoff berth which isn’t even our goal as it doesn’t do much for us to just get bounced in the first round of the playoffs.  To actually reach the real goal and beat the really good teams to win the Cup is pretty astronomical odds.  Even on our hot streak we haven’t fared well against the upper competition.

 

There are just too many ways for us to have no chance of catching up and too few ways for us to actually be able to gain enough ground.  There is a good reason why almost all the teams above the playoff bar by American Thanksgiving make the playoffs… and the few that actually overcome those odds are within 2-4 points of the playoffs at on that date.  We are tracking to miss the playoffs by 5-7 points even if we continue to play really well.

 

It would be amazing to reach the playoffs and do a little damage there.  It is also really worrying that we play just well enough for it to be tough for the GM to make moves at the deadline and that hurts us long term.  Kind of like that mirage season when Benning first took over probably set us back years because it gave false hope.

 

The good news is that maybe we have played well enough that it gives some hope to a guy like Horvat to be willing to extend at a reasonable price.  At best our good stretch of play has maybe pushed me into maybe us moving Boeser instead of Miller at the deadline.  We could get a return for Boeser and also take on a decent player on an expiring contract without making the team worse in the short term.  Miller playing like he is right now with a full 90 point season under his belt probably isn’t going to be worth less as a trade asset in the offseason… so there shouldn’t be pressure on that end.  Boeser without a contract extension and a looming $7.5 million QO would certainly be worth less as an asset.

 

Good summary, I posted how many times teams we're chasing play other teams we're chasing in the blight thread the other day, lots of points to be had.

 

LA's got a relatively easy schedule over the rest of the season compared to other teams we're chasing, and if they do add things get tougher. They can certainly afford to.

 

The mirage bit concerns me, because I firmly believe we'll miss. And high value or not, I do figure Miller will be less in the offseason because then a team potentially only gets him for one season if they can't come to terms. Get him at the deadline and you get two runs at premium cap value. But I get what you're saying.

 

I fully expect Bo to be extended.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, eeeeergh said:

Perfect time to sell is after performances like tonight.

A team that's making a cup run looks at Miller and figures he's the piece that will absolutely win them the cup, they'll pay any price for him. They'll sell the farm, and we'll end up with their years of patience/hard work in our roster and prospect pool. 

Yup, lot of teams out there whose windows may not be very long. Rags haven’t gotten close since losing to LA, first final for them since 94 I believe. Florida winning might build their fanbase in their mind.

 

Hard to say, but adding Miller would be a kingmaker move for a contender, and we sure ain't likely to be one of those soon.

 

1 hour ago, bishopshodan said:

I remember the years of dreaming about having the depth we now have at centre. 

Pettersson and Horvat are fine, almost no team can afford the luxury of three top six centre's down the middle. And with Horvat and Miller both due for raises it's not a realistic want either, not when the rest of the roster needs tinkering.

[Coconuts]

5 minutes ago, VegasCanuck said:

Teams make a mistake all the time of signing guys to contracts that run too late in their career for too much money. I think with the flat cap, there are a lot of teams that are starting to come around to the idea that it's not a good idea to go too long on contracts.

 

So, if Miller wanted 8.5 million, then I would say that it needs to be a 2 year contract.

 

If he wants to be playing for a number of years and wants that security as he gets older, then you do something where pay, matches what you expect to be his continuing level of production.

 

It's all give and take. 5 or 6 year deal, means that the pay at the end of the contract, comes down and you don't have trade protection at the end. So, if his production really fell off, you have a better chance of moving the contract to a cash strapped team, who can benefit from having a higher average cap hit, compared to actual cash out the door (see LE's contract)

 

Personally, I'd be completely good with something at 6 years, 40 million in total,  6.67 million cap hit, average. I think you'll notice, that even last summer, other than contracts for key defensemen, teams were not handing out really ridiculous contracts, they were keeping them reasonable. 

Top players will always get paid though, look at what Hamilton got from Jersey. If Miller goes to UFA he'll get big term and dollars if that's what he wants, teams would make it work. Vegas made Petro work.

Edited February 25, 2022 by Coconuts

[Alflives]

3 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

Top players will always get paid though, look at what Hamilton got from Jersey. If Miller goes to UFA he'll get big term and dollars if that's what he wants, teams would make it work. Vegas made Petro work.

Is our window for competing for a Cup now, like Vegas'?  Miller will be 30 when he's negotiating his next contract.  He's a fantastic player right now, but will his skills translate into his 30's?  Is he going to be a guy we can afford to over pay (8 on the cap) while we build around Demko, Petey, and Quinn?  

Miller sure is a heck of a good player though, so this is going to be a key move for JR and PA.

[BPA]

9 minutes ago, VegasCanuck said:

Teams make a mistake all the time of signing guys to contracts that run too late in their career for too much money. I think with the flat cap, there are a lot of teams that are starting to come around to the idea that it's not a good idea to go too long on contracts.

 

So, if Miller wanted 8.5 million, then I would say that it needs to be a 2 year contract.

 

If he wants to be playing for a number of years and wants that security as he gets older, then you do something where pay, matches what you expect to be his continuing level of production.

 

It's all give and take. 5 or 6 year deal, means that the pay at the end of the contract, comes down and you don't have trade protection at the end. So, if his production really fell off, you have a better chance of moving the contract to a cash strapped team, who can benefit from having a higher average cap hit, compared to actual cash out the door (see LE's contract)

 

Personally, I'd be completely good with something at 6 years, 40 million in total,  6.67 million cap hit, average. I think you'll notice, that even last summer, other than contracts for key defensemen, teams were not handing out really ridiculous contracts, they were keeping them reasonable. 

I hope that is the case.

 

The signings for Defenceman was out-of-whack last year.  Only Makar was worth $9M. Makes QH signing such a steal for the Canucks.

[VegasCanuck]

1 minute ago, Coconuts said:

Top players will always get paid though, look at what Hamilton got from Jersey. If Miller goes to UFA he'll get big term and dollars if that's what he wants, teams would make it work. Vegas made Petro work.

Hamilton is a high end RD in the NHL. He is always going to be able to get a premium rate. He was also younger when he signed his contract than Miller will be when he signs his.

 

Petro, same in Vegas, he's a high end, RD in a league where there's a shortage of qualified RD.

 

Miller is awesome, but, do you pay him at 8 or 9 million when he's 36 or 37?

 

If that's the level of commitment to keep him here, then you trade him for high-end, assets that you can build around for the next 5 or 6 years.

 

I think the Canucks keep Miller until summer and then look at what he's wanting as long-term contract and make a decision on whether we can keep him or move him. 

[stawns]

I'm loving Miller's committment to the future of this organization in the last few games.  The contenders must be lining up now........let the bidding begin