So You Wanna Build a Contender?

[D-Money]

I, like almost all of the people in here, long to see the Canucks get back to true contender status. That brief period in the early 2010s was so special, because it was the only time in the team's history that they were at the top on the league. Cinderella runs are fun and all, but generally the top teams are the ones that end up winning in the end.

 

If we look back at the core of that team - the 5 best players - it was pretty special. IMO they were: Sedin, Sedin, Luongo, Kesler, and Hamhuis. Some might argue with Hammer, and say Edler or Burrows, but the team was deep too, and had many fantastic supporting players.

 

So who are the 5 best players on the team right now? I think it's almost unanimously (in whatever order): Miller, Demko, Hughes, Horvat, and Pettersson. There really isn't another player even remotely threatening bumping one of those 5 from the list. How do they stack up against our top players from a decade ago? I think it's pretty clear that as a group they're not even close.

 

But that was a pretty special team. So the question is, how do they stack up against the best teams in the league right now? Let's compare them to:

 

Colorado - MacKinnon, Makar, Landeskog, Rantanen, Kadri

Florida - Barkov, Ekblad, Huberdeau, Reinhart, Weegar

Tampa - Hedman, Vasilevskiy, Kucherov, Point, Stamkos

 

How does the Canucks' core really stack up? You might be able to argue that the 4th or 5th player compares favorably to Florida. But if a person is honest, they'll agree that overall, the Canucks are nowhere near the level of those teams when it comes to the core. And yet, I think the Canucks' core is actually better than most teams in the league - it's just not one of the best.

 

Then you get to supporting players. Those teams have other players who some might argue should be in that list, or who might at least threaten to bump a guy soon, much like the peak era of Canucks. In fact, if you have a really solid and deep group of supporting players, that can even take a core that is on paper not as good as the teams above and still get them in the discussion as a potential contender (such as Carolina). But the truly top teams usually have not only an elite core, but also a fantastic group of supporting talent.

 

How do the Canucks rate with supporting players? Guys like Boeser, OEL, Garland, Myers, and Pearson. How does that compare with the peak era Canucks, with Edler, Bieksa,  Burrows, Samuelsson, and Ehrhoff? Not well at all, IMO. How about comparing them with the top teams above?

 

Colorado - Toews, Kuemper, Girard, Compher, Nichuskin...

Florida - Bobrovsky, Duclair, Bennett, Lundell, Forsling…

Tampa - McDonaugh, Cirelli, Sergachev, Palat, Cernak...

 

Once again, the Canucks don't really stack up, especially on defense. In fact, as much as I agreed that Canucks had an above average core, I'd argue that their support players are well below average. 

--------------------------

To sum it up, the Canucks likely do not have a good enough core to become a contender, and they certainly do not have the supporting players for it either.
 

The problem is, outside of maybe Podkolzin, are there any youth in the system who can become a top-5 player on a contender? (And I think he's a long-shot for that). And outside of maybe Rathbone and Kilmovich, are there any youth in the system who you would give decent odds on becoming a quality supporting player? There really is not much coming.

 

I think the team needs to add a core player that bumps someone like Horvat into a more supporting role, and at least 1 more high quality supporting player. One of them needs to be a top-pairing defenseman (preferably RD) to push OEL down the depth chart. But how do you find those guys? We don't have the cap space to buy one in free agency. And as mentioned, they aren't likely to come through our shallow prospect pool. If you go back to the lists of core players from various teams, there is the occasional later-round homerun (Kucherov, Point, Demko, Weegar), and equally rare acquiring of one in a trade (Luongo, Miller, Kadri, Reinhart). Most of them were 1st round picks, and generally top-5 ones at that.

 

What do you think? Can Canucks' management find those types of quality players, and turn the team into a true contender? And can they do it fast enough to get ahead of age-related decline in the players were have?

 

Personally, I don't think it's likely at all.

 

Edited April 6, 2022 by D-Money

[-DLC-]

I think something that's missed in your "top 5 players" determining success is the fact that there was great chemistry on that team and some of the players (Bieksa, Burr, Kes) who were big parts of that success had been together since the Moose. Mattered. Then the  Sedins, who were pretty special in their own right. People want to do this on paper but there's so much more to it.

 

I'd say our core Bo, Petey, Quinn, Miller, Demko is pretty strong. Remember, the other thing is the Sedins didn't just jump out in front from the start...it took time for them. Petey was drafted 5 years ago...we have to exercise some patience. 

 

You're asking how we stack up against teams with cores that also have some players who've been at it awhile.  Have they proven themselves (yet)? Florida hasn't done anything to convince me yet. Tampa, sure....but as I've said, their guys have been at it awhile, they're not new to this.

 

Everyone has ideas of how we could just add or subtract and it's a done deal, but it's not as easy as that. Unfortunately. We have zero patience in this fanbase and that's one thing I've seen unfold here.

 

 

[JM_]

So @D-Money whats the conclusion? blow it up, start over? because if we can't find better support players, a Miller trade alone isn't going to change the situation much in the way you've presented here. 

[Coconuts]

I don't see us contending for a while, though I welcome management to prove me wrong. JR said what.. two years? I figure it's more like 4-5+ at the earliest. Could we be in the mix for a playoff spot sooner than later? Sure, but I figure we're in for more growing pains whether we make it or not. 

 

I'll still root for the team, but realistically we've got a lotttt of work to do. We root for a team that's made the final three times in 50+ years and lost every time, we've been a bad/mediocre team for most of the last decade despite some bright spots from individual players, the odds are against us miraculously pulling things together. 

Edited April 4, 2022 by Coconuts

[-DLC-]

19 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

We root for a team that's made the final three times in 50+ years and lost every time, we've been a bad/mediocre team for most of the last decade despite some bright spots from individual players, the odds are against us miraculously pulling things together. 

I think this factors in for many and it's unfair to THIS team to pin our histor and years of being disappointed on them. 

 

The last decade a lot has happened and it takes time. We are a different team in the past couple of years. Do you know how many players are here that were here 3-4 years ago?  Four. Then Petey and Quinn were drafted (2017 & 2018) and joined the team.THEN we acquired Miller (this is his 3rd with us?). So you really have to give them a little time to "prove" themselves, which I feel they've done a pretty good job of when their backs weren't up against the wall with COVID, etc. It's been a rather unique period to judge teams on.
 

We always sell our players short based on OUR disappointment over the decades but this team's fairly "new" in respect to how long we've given them. Us being tired of not winning only goes back so far with this roster.  If you look at Tampa, it's taken time for them (too). Those guys have been at it awhile. Av's haven't made it past the second round so ? 

 

[JM_]

27 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

I don't see us contending for a while, though I welcome management to prove me wrong. JR said what.. two years? I figure it's more like 4-5+ at the earliest. Could we be in the mix for a playoff spot sooner than later? Sure, but I figure we're in for more growing pains whether we make it or not. 

 

I'll still root for the team, but realistically we've got a lotttt of work to do. We root for a team that's made the final three times in 50+ years and lost every time, we've been a bad/mediocre team for most of the last decade despite some bright spots from individual players, the odds are against us miraculously pulling things together. 

the way I look at it is, we aren't going to get a Hedman, Matthews or McDavid out of any trade for Miller or Boeser. We may get good pieces but we are not getting that, barring some miracle miss by 20+ scouts.

 

So if we aren't rebuilding around our core guys, then we need to go full tank. Get as many picks as possible sure, but if we're not going full tank we won't have any top 5 talent anyway. 

 

I see it as pretty binary. We can construct a team imo thats quite similar to LA's cup teams with the core we have now, OR go full tank.

 

I don't see a point in just moving Miller and expecting a miracle run with Chytil and Schneider. 

[Ghostsof1915]

Sad part is McDonagh and Sergachev were traded from Montreal. Yikes. 

[Nucker 67]

I think initially, JR underestimated the work to be done in Vancouver. He said about two years for the Canucks to be a playoff team (contender) again?  He had no idea.

 

JR might also underestimate the impatience of this fan base and how passionate Canadian hockey fans are for their team. He was in upper management in PIT and CAR, where hockey isn't the #1 sport. Far from it in Raleigh.

 

I'm not sure they even know who to build the team around yet.

 

Miller?

Horvat?

Petey?

 

Will JR and Allvin be aggressive in trading this summer? I hope so, because this team as it is, isn't very good. Boudreau had them playing at their highest level, and that still isn't good enough.  

 

IMO, pen a letter to the fans telling them the plan, then tear it down and rebuild around Petey, Podkolzin, Hughes and Demko. 

[PunjabiCanucks]

We need a dynamic 1LW 

 

Horvat Boeser Petey Miller are all great to have up front - but they arent consistent for some times. Miller and Horvat have scored the majority of the goals.

 

Podkolzin and Hoglander should continue to grow.

 

Pearson can hopefully sustain his production. 

--

Other then Hughes our defence sucks.

OEL is good but overpaid, Myers has his blunders- the duo is overpaid.

--

Demko should be elite and hopefully a Vezina level goalie for us, our back up next year needs to be able to play atleast 25 games and win more then .550

-

 

Dickinson, Poolman have been mistakes sorry

[Alflives]

We need to retool our core.  No player in our core should be considered safe from getting traded.  Our team truly needs to take a couple steps back, so we can draft high for as long as it takes to get the elite core pieces needed to leap ahead into the top teams in  the league.  Collect picks, and lots of them.  Rebuild.

[thrago]

The way I see it if you want to be a contender, unless you have a core that is just far superior to everyone else, the only way to do it is to win with essentially 2 cores.  What I mean by that is lets say EP, QH and Demko are the core.  I use them as Miller and Horvat will likely be too old to last till another core is made, so in my opinion should be traded to find more age appropriate players to fill out the core.  So that you can start building a new core to follow this one.

 

Not sure I explained that very well so I'll try to say it another way.  What you want to be a contender is to have a core that is roughly in there prime with a young up and coming core trying to push them out.  So using the Canucks now as an example  we would have Miller, Horvat and OEL as the older core with EP and Hughes as the younger core and Demko being an age he fits with both.  The problem is we are missing 2 players from the older core and 3 from the younger and that's just too much to be a contender.  

 

So IMO we need to trade the guys that aren't going to work IE Miller and Horvat to fill in the younger core of EP, QH and Demko and start working on a new core so that when these guys are in there mid to late 20's we have players trying to push them out, that are still on reasonable contracts.  It's a hell of a dance to try and pull off, but it's the only way I see that gives you more then 1-2 year window to win a Cup, which is incredibly difficult to do.

 

The question is do the Canucks have the guts to trade Miller and Horvat and then wait 5-6 years for the payoff?  I doubt it, which is why we likely never win the Cup. Or we hope for Cinderella seasons like the Habs had and hope we win that way, but that almost never works, it certainly hasn't for us.

Edited April 4, 2022 by thrago

[Nucker 67]

OTT has been the laughing stock of the league for many years, but Sens fans can finally be excited about their future with Tkachuk, Stutzle, Batherson, Norris, Formenton, Sanderson, Bransstrom, Chabot, etc.  They still have work to do, but they're putting together a nice young core.

 

Is OTT going to sign a 30 year old to a 6 year contract worth $9 a season?  Unlikely, but I think this young core of OTT's will contend in a couple of years. 

 

By comparison, the Canucks young core is: Pettersson, Hoglander, Podkolzin, Dermott and Hughes. Maybe add Rathbone.  Not good enough.

 

 

[JM_]

27 minutes ago, Alflives said:

We need to retool our core.  No player in our core should be considered safe from getting traded.  Our team truly needs to take a couple steps back, so we can draft high for as long as it takes to get the elite core pieces needed to leap ahead into the top teams in  the league.  Collect picks, and lots of them.  Rebuild.

thats not a step back, thats tanking. 

[Zhukini]

1 hour ago, -DLC- said:

I think something that's missed in your "top 5 players" determining success is the fact that there was great chemistry on that team and some of the players (Bieksa, Burr, Kes) who were big parts of that success had been together since the Moose. Mattered. Then the  Sedins, who were pretty special in their own right. People want to do this on paper but there's so much more to it.

 

I'd say our core Bo, Petey, Quinn, Miller, Demko is pretty strong. Remember, the other thing is the Sedins didn't just jump out in front from the start...it took time for them. Petey was drafted 5 years ago...we have to exercise some patience. 

 

You're asking how we stack up against teams with cores that also have some players who've been at it awhile.  Have they proven themselves (yet)? Florida hasn't done anything to convince me yet. Tampa, sure....but as I've said, their guys have been at it awhile, they're not new to this.

 

Everyone has ideas of how we could just add or subtract and it's a done deal, but it's not as easy as that. Unfortunately. We have zero patience in this fanbase and that's one thing I've seen unfold here.

 

 

We have zero patience?

 

I think that's incorrect. I think the majority of the fanbase was willing to wait 4-5 years to see a proper rebuild done once the Sedin were gone. IF it was done properly, that's plenty of time. 

 

There's zero patience for dragging your feet and aiming for the shallow end. There was never a concrete plan articulated with the old regime. The new regime has all the time in the world provided there's an end goal. 

 

The best thing the Rangers did over the past 5 seasons was put out a letter saying they would suck but they would be better because of it. Look at them now. 

[Zhukini]

dp

Edited April 4, 2022 by Zhukini
dp

[Alflives]

21 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

OTT has been the laughing stock of the league for many years, but Sens fans can finally be excited about their future with Tkachuk, Stutzle, Batherson, Norris, Formenton, Sanderson, Bransstrom, Chabot, etc.  They still have work to do, but they're putting together a nice young core.

 

Is OTT going to sign a 30 year old to a 6 year contract worth $9 a season?  Unlikely, but I think this young core of OTT's will contend in a couple of years. 

 

By comparison, the Canucks young core is: Pettersson, Hoglander, Podkolzin, Dermott and Hughes. Maybe add Rathbone.  Not good enough.

 

 

Agree about the Sens.

Our core does not include Hogs, Pods, Dermott or Bone.   Pods might become a core piece once we trade away Boeser, and Garland.  

[grandmaster]

1 hour ago, Alflives said:

We need to retool our core.  No player in our core should be considered safe from getting traded.  Our team truly needs to take a couple steps back, so we can draft high for as long as it takes to get the elite core pieces needed to leap ahead into the top teams in  the league.  Collect picks, and lots of them.  Rebuild.

See the thing is, doing a “proper rebuild” doesn’t always work. Look at Buffalo. Also look at teams that did “re-tools” like LA (a re-tool worked for them). Nothing is set in stone. There are way too many variables.
 

I personally prefer to keep our best and dump the rest. Also keep in mind trading our best to the best teams equal late picks. Virtually second rounders.

 

Some high picks also do not always turn out. We’ve had hits (Petey, Hughes) and we’ve had duds (Jake, Oli). 

One of the biggest obstacles is the NHL/Bettman working behind the scenes to screw us over; biased refs, ridiculous suspensions when we are in the playoffs (Aaron Rome), retroactive cap penalties from legal contracts (Luongo), never moving up on the draft, etc. Given this last part, I fear we will never win the Cup.

 

 

Edited April 4, 2022 by grandmaster

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, grandmaster said:

See the thing is, doing a “proper rebuild” doesn’t always work. Look at Buffalo. Also look at teams that did “re-tools” like LA (a re-tool worked for them). Nothing is set in stone. There are way too many variables.
 

I personally prefer to keep our best and dump the rest. Also keep in mind trading our best to the best teams equal late picks. Virtually second rounders.

 

Some high picks also do not always turn out. We’ve hat hits (Petey, Hughes) and we’ve had duds (Jake, Oli). 

One of the biggest obstacles is the NHL/Bettman working behind the scenes to screw us over; biased refs, ridiculous suspensions when we are in the playoffs (Aaron Rome), retroactive cap penalties from legal contracts (Luongo), never moving up on the draft, etc. Given this last part, I fear we will never win the Cup.

 

 

There are 32 teams all trying to get the Cup.  Is there a Cup winner (during the cap era) that won without collecting top players from high picks in the draft?  Maybe LA?  Although Doughty was a very high pick.  

[grandmaster]

5 minutes ago, Alflives said:

There are 32 teams all trying to get the Cup.  Is there a Cup winner (during the cap era) that won without collecting top players from high picks in the draft?  Maybe LA?  Although Doughty was a very high pick.  

We have 8 top 10 first round pick on our team. How many more do you want? 

Edited April 4, 2022 by grandmaster

[D-Money]

1 hour ago, JM_ said:

the way I look at it is, we aren't going to get a Hedman, Matthews or McDavid out of any trade for Miller or Boeser. We may get good pieces but we are not getting that, barring some miracle miss by 20+ scouts.

 

So if we aren't rebuilding around our core guys, then we need to go full tank. Get as many picks as possible sure, but if we're not going full tank we won't have any top 5 talent anyway. 

 

I see it as pretty binary. We can construct a team imo thats quite similar to LA's cup teams with the core we have now, OR go full tank.

 

I don't see a point in just moving Miller and expecting a miracle run with Chytil and Schneider. 

This is kind of how I see it too, at least in the short term. The core is almost too good to just blow it up and start over, but it will be hard to continue to add talent if we are not getting top-10 picks.

 

So I suspect the team to straddle the fence, maybe trade 1 of Miller or Horvat, and try to build up the support guys with trades and free agents, particularly free agent prospects. If they identify the right players, and have them all buy in, maybe they can become a stronger team - sort of like what Calgary has done. But I wouldn't call Calgary a true contender, and I suspect their window to do something with this squad will be quite short.