So You Wanna Build a Contender?

[Chris12345]

2 minutes ago, IBatch said:

If you believe in drafting top five all the time, you should become a Buffalo - or if not maybe an EDM fan.  That's their model. 

Right....maybe dramatic but most power houses have top picks. 

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, Master Mind said:

When comparing our core to Tampa and Colorado, it's clear we have a long way to go.

 

-both teams have 3 forwards better than our best forward.

-both have a D better than our best D.

-we have an advantage over COL in net, but not vs Tampa.

 

The supporting casts are even further apart, especially on D.

 

IMO we need a full tear down. We tried to rush things and it backfired. No more trading top 10 picks, no more free agent overpayments, no more premature buying of rentals.

 

Let's rebuild and do it properly this time.

It just goes to show that the lucky teams, or that the really bad teams (EDM), eventually hit on the right guys.   TB was lucky given they had a first and second overall and two great players to pick (Stamkos and Hedman).   But they were also very very good at drafting.   Kucherov.  Point.   Exceptional actually.   All this talk about JB being a draft GURU...and he was actually above average - what we really needed was more picks.   He's right there with OTT, as a team that could draft in the top ten year to hear ... after you consider ADP or draft position.    Average draft position.   Should have stuck to his strengths but maybe his 2016 draft freaked him out a little i'm not sure.    Get the re-tool.   That was almost certainly going to fail not worth a shot (Wilson in SJ is the master of re-tooling to a fault - won't go into a rebuilt mode but is going to have to shortly)  .... a second for Vey...whoops ... well he still matched what seconds get you ... a second for Bear - well he did a little better but still whoops.    In the end, it's still probably the draft that could save us .... either that or some pretty lopsided trades that may or or may not include a great draft pick. 

 

Massive roster change the last four years doesn't make it easy on any coach.    Would have taken some miraculous coaching.   We are close but not quite there yet.   Need some core ascension as well.  QHs did that and so did Demko recently.   Sedins left some big big shoes.   So did Edler and Tanev.   And they were all that was left.    Maybe we should all put down the phone or the computer and go for a walk for a year or so.   Let the experts do their jobs.   JB was flawed nobody would deny that - but at least he put in some groundwork that can be changed to build the palace.   Allvin?   Don't mind one bit he's taking his time.   In the same shoes id be doing that as well.   JB gift to him is options.   

[Fred65]

9 minutes ago, IBatch said:

It just goes to show that the lucky teams, or that the really bad teams (EDM), eventually hit on the right guys.   TB was lucky given they had a first and second overall and two great players to pick (Stamkos and Hedman).   But they were also very very good at drafting.   Kucherov.  Point.   Exceptional actually.   All this talk about JB being a draft GURU...and he was actually above average - what we really needed was more picks.   He's right there with OTT, as a team that could draft in the top ten year to hear ... after you consider ADP or draft position.    Average draft position.   Should have stuck to his strengths but maybe his 2016 draft freaked him out a little i'm not sure.    Get the re-tool.   That was almost certainly going to fail not worth a shot (Wilson in SJ is the master of re-tooling to a fault - won't go into a rebuilt mode but is going to have to shortly)  .... a second for Vey...whoops ... well he still matched what seconds get you ... a second for Bear - well he did a little better but still whoops.    In the end, it's still probably the draft that could save us .... either that or some pretty lopsided trades that may or or may not include a great draft pick. 

 

Massive roster change the last four years doesn't make it easy on any coach.    Would have taken some miraculous coaching.   We are close but not quite there yet.   Need some core ascension as well.  QHs did that and so did Demko recently.   Sedins left some big big shoes.   So did Edler and Tanev.   And they were all that was left.    Maybe we should all put down the phone or the computer and go for a walk for a year or so.   Let the experts do their jobs.   JB was flawed nobody would deny that - but at least he put in some groundwork that can be changed to build the palace.   Allvin?   Don't mind one bit he's taking his time.   In the same shoes id be doing that as well.   JB gift to him is options.   

Draft Guru, that was a great PR move by JB's agent. Average considering how high he drafted each year. Years wasted

Edited April 4, 2022 by Fred65

[Fanuck]

29 minutes ago, Alflives said:

I wonder what depth to the retool? 

The retool in my view needs to be substantial, and if done right, will likely result in this club taking a step back (in the standings) in order for us to take several steps forward in a few seasons' time.  You're not going to make 'lateral' trades so to think that Allvin will trade Miller for another Miller-type player at that stage in his career is foolish; therefore, one could assume if Miller (or anyone else for that matter) is traded we're going to be getting younger/cheaper/good draft picks - as a result, we're not likely going to be as good until those assets mature.  Additionally, if Miller is in fact traded, people need to get over this one-for-one idea where if we don't get a player back that eventually ends up as good as Miller we've somehow lost the trade.  If we get back two or three players/assets that eventually, when developed, add up to more than the sum of what they were traded for then in my view that's a win (for example, if we got a legit top 6 forward and a top 4 d that contributed to this team for the next 10 years on reasonable contracts that's a win in my view) - combine that with addressing team needs, adding cap flexibility, and not being tied to a boat-anchor contract is yet more win for the club long-term. 

 

This team needs substantial changes - if you don't agree with that I'm not sure we've been watching the same games the last week or so. 

[Master Mind]

11 minutes ago, IBatch said:

It just goes to show that the lucky teams, or that the really bad teams (EDM), eventually hit on the right guys.   TB was lucky given they had a first and second overall and two great players to pick (Stamkos and Hedman).   But they were also very very good at drafting.   Kucherov.  Point.   Exceptional actually.   All this talk about JB being a draft GURU...and he was actually above average - what we really needed was more picks.   He's right there with OTT, as a team that could draft in the top ten year to hear ... after you consider ADP or draft position.    Average draft position.   Should have stuck to his strengths but maybe his 2016 draft freaked him out a little i'm not sure.    Get the re-tool.   That was almost certainly going to fail not worth a shot (Wilson in SJ is the master of re-tooling to a fault - won't go into a rebuilt mode but is going to have to shortly)  .... a second for Vey...whoops ... well he still matched what seconds get you ... a second for Bear - well he did a little better but still whoops.    In the end, it's still probably the draft that could save us .... either that or some pretty lopsided trades that may or or may not include a great draft pick. 

 

Massive roster change the last four years doesn't make it easy on any coach.    Would have taken some miraculous coaching.   We are close but not quite there yet.   Need some core ascension as well.  QHs did that and so did Demko recently.   Sedins left some big big shoes.   So did Edler and Tanev.   And they were all that was left.    Maybe we should all put down the phone or the computer and go for a walk for a year or so.   Let the experts do their jobs.   JB was flawed nobody would deny that - but at least he put in some groundwork that can be changed to build the palace.   Allvin?   Don't mind one bit he's taking his time.   In the same shoes id be doing that as well.   JB gift to him is options.   

The lack of picks has been a huge detriment.

 

I keep seeing people justify the trading of picks because it's unlikely that any individual pick will become a decent player. That's true, but when you stockpile picks, you're much more likely to find gems. Need to view it as the whole picture, rather than an isolated pick.

 

Draft pick volume is the way to go. We've been doing the opposite, and it shows in our results now, and our lack of high end players in the pipeline.

[higgyfan]

13 minutes ago, Chris12345 said:

Right....maybe dramatic but most power houses have top picks. 

Teams like the Blues and Lightening don't have a lot of top picks, but are wizards at finding top players

they're late 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounds.  High-end scouting staff gives you a long run as playoff

contenders.

[Master Mind]

33 minutes ago, IBatch said:

I don't think we need a total tear down.  But we do need some favourable trades.   A re-set that works.    To me that's one that we engage in the off-season, and trade one or two of our blue chippers - for futures and something back younger.   
 

You could be right i don't know.   Bruce and even Green aside from this season - has shown that these guys aren't so bad.   Where i don't want to end up is the mushy middle.   It's extremely difficult to win one cup these days with 32 teams competing.   Can see why GMs are satisfied with the " mushy middle" - never bad enough to get the best guys at the draft - and never good enough to do much damage other then a miracle run here and there to the cup.   To me the best example of that is PHI the last 15 years or so...a tad - a tad bit better and some luck - and your St Louis.       Mushy middle has its carrot too.   That's probably where we are headed. 

It's tough to have several favourable trades.

 

I'm afraid we're heading into mediocrity as well, which is why I'd rather see them get on top of things before we become the next Flyers or Flames.

[deus.ex.makina]

our shopping list :

 

top 6 RW (shoot first mentality) 

3 C (Speed size with some hands

2nd pairing RD. with toughness and good wheels.

 

Podkolzin Miller Garland

Peterson Horvat RW 

Pearson C Hoglander

Highmore Lammikko Lockwood

 

OEL Myers

Hughes RD

Dermott Schenn

 

Demko

Martin

 

any ideas ? 

 

 

[Master Mind]

1 hour ago, ShawnAntoski said:

JR in the McCown show, confirmed Allvin will be tasked with a retool - hence, the plan for focusing in, on European & College FA's.  I had asked in my previous, if the current rebuilding teams (Yotes & Habs) will be better off, with there rebuild in a few years when compared to the Canucks, with there retool 2.0.

Given the home run trades the Habs have made this season, I like their long term chances more than ours as it currently stands.

[Fanuck]

3 minutes ago, higgyfan said:

Teams like the Blues and Lightening don't have a lot of top picks, but are wizards at finding top players

they're late 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounds.  High-end scouting staff gives you a long run as playoff

contenders.

I know what you mean about finding players in the draft that outperform their draft rank, but I'm not sure the Lightning are your best example - they found some gems in the draft but they also have a first overall and a second overall as franchise players on their team for the past decade and a half. 

[alt kilgore]

As the much CDC maligned Jason Botchford shouted out to anyone that would listen after the 2018 season:

” we need an army!”

 

Sure would’ve been great if the last regime would have taken that advice back then and put a priority on draft and develop. 
Water under the bridge now. 
 

It’sa good point about the support players. That second tier is vital.  Even if the “plan” then was an annual retool instead, at least don’t #*%# up in your pro-scouting. If JB could have batted even .500 on his FA signings, where most new acquisitions play above their cap value instead of below, we’d be in better shape.

 

 Because it’sa domino effect. Getting rid of bad or overvalued contacts hamstrings a GM to take on other anchors. coughOELcough. Continually running on a hamster wheel.

 

 Because we have neither a solid support core, nor a stocked prospect pool, we may have to sacrifice Miller, Bo, and Boeser to the hockey gods and, better later than never, start to build that army.  Just sucks that we will be wasting prime years of Demko, and Miller.

 

 

[J.I.A.H.N]

4 hours ago, JM_ said:

So @D-Money whats the conclusion? blow it up, start over? because if we can't find better support players, a Miller trade alone isn't going to change the situation much in the way you've presented here. 

Here is the thing Jim...........we are not 1 player away, we are 3 or 4 players away, and we are in a position because of where our cap is, that we just can't go out and buy them, so as you ask....what do we do? Well, there is no reason to go back in time and cry about Benning signings or such, but what do we do going forward? 

 

I do not think it is a scorched earth type of thing, but, we need to take a step back for a year or 2.  We need 2 things at the top. #1. that RHD everyone talks about, and #2. a playmaking Center. We have 3 good centers in Miller, Horvat and Pettersson, and none are play makers. The only place you can consistently get them is at the top of the draft.

They don't need to be #1 or #2 OA picks, but they have to be top 6 or 7, for sure.

 

The problem we have  are, we are close, and not close enough, we are a top 16 team, but not a top 10 team, we are strong in certain area's, but do not have over all strength or depth.

 

How do these team build competitive teams? Through the draft!

 

Tampa, through the draft, Florida through the draft, Colorado through the draft, now Ottawa, Anaheim and LA.........all through the draft. A better example, is how we did it. Which, if you look at it closely, Hank Sedin, Daniel Sedin, Kesler, Bieska, Edler, Hansen, all through the draft. Yes, there were signed players, and traded players, but that was done through  depth and the Draft.

 

Take a look back at the trade......the one which I think set the Canucks up for years..................Trevor Linden for Todd Bertuzzi and Bryan McCabe........this is not possible if it was not for drafting Trevor Linden, who became Burtuzzi, and through extension Hank and Daniel Sedin. Bertuzzi later becoming Luongo, who later became Markstrom. That is where the chain stops because, well according to CDC, you can not trade away fan Favorites Sedin's or Markstrom.

 

How does this all apply today...........well, we don't have the horses, and we won't in time, to enjoy the youth of Pettersson, Hughes and Demko, which is where it truly ends, because sadly, Boeser is not in the same ilk.

 

We have to step back, or we will be having Anaheim, and LA pass us by...........and quickly! If they already haven't!

 

IMO, we need to keep all top end players 25 years and under..................Demko, Pettersson, Hughes, Boeser, Podkolzin, Rathbone, Hoglander, Lockwood, Woo

Then we need to keep some support players............Lammikko, Highmore, Martin, and Dermott

We need to identify other support prospects with in the system.....Silvos, Klimovich, Karlsson, McDonaugh, Zlodeyev, Truscott, Utunen, Persson, Myrenberg, Jurmo, Forsell

 

We need to sign NCAA Jake Livingston

 

Then we need to look at who is left..............Miller, Garland, Pearson, OEL and Myers.........all have value if the trade is designed properly, with no assets going out, and lots coming in.

 

I think people honestly see us having a chance at the top in 1/2 years, and I suggest it is more like 3/4 years

 

[IBatch]

29 minutes ago, Fred65 said:

Draft Guru, that was a great PR move by JB's agent. Average considering how high he drafted each year. Years wasted

Not really.   If you look at his actual picks, compare the other teams picks, and where he drafted - he was in the top ten.    That's pretty much undeniable.   How you level the playing field and it's not perfect because in this case every team should have all their picks - is by evaluating the 21 and unders and how they stack up.   In JB case the 26 and unders of course (against their draft class).   There hasn't been many teams the last decade that had a top 5 group for consecutive years.   JB managed it twice in a row.   Where it went off the rails - of course - was trading for Miller and then again last season.     It's very discouraging that we haven't had a GM since Nonis first draft, that has found an impact player in the 3rd round ... that's Edler, if you re-call beat out  Bourdon (RIP), who might have been something too.   But he did have shades of Ohlund and absolutely earned his spot.      Where JB went wrong is pretty easy to follow.  Spending to the cap was his worst sin.   Demko for sure his best second rounder.   And over 8 years we should have at least one right?   And who's JBs agent anyways?   I'm not pulling this stuff out of my butt, it's the facts of the draft since we've had an honest university study - from 1990-2010.   We can't quite judge the last decade right or wrong yet.   And that study also included the 20 years before that.   People often overrate draft picks.   What JB managed was absolutely - so far - unequivocally - above the par bar as far as the draft goes.   Brock falling on his face doesn't mean much either.  Brock has already far exceeded his draft spot.   JV was on par for "average" at six.     QHs and EP will blow the doors off.   OJ terrible pick but also on par for the game - no team gets them all right. 

 

MG had six drafts.   And sold one first rounder for Ballard.    Holland had...what was it again? 20+ ... how many did he sell.    It would take three of EP, BB, QHs and Demko to fall on their faces next year before you could look at JB draft history and say he was below average.   You also need to look at who else drafted over that same period, and where they picked before making an informed decision.    Fortunately for us mere mortals that's done twice a year every year by THN.    It's an honest system and one that is hard to argue against.  JB drafted - with the picks he had - well above his punch position based on his peers.    That said he wasn't the best drafter either.   But was consistently in the top ten.   To me - that's above average.    And that is exactly why we are in the predicament we currently face.  He was ONE year off on timing his contracts - and that's why he is no longer here.   Well that and a seriously impatient fanbase ... "it's been 8 long years"   OR for some more RUserious types - it's been an "ENTIRE decade"...lol.   And the irony of that is ... well it really could be, another decade and yes some of those reasons will certainly  be linked back to JB. 

Edited April 4, 2022 by IBatch

[JM_]

8 minutes ago, J.I.A.H.N said:

Here is the thing Jim...........we are not 1 player away, we are 3 or 4 players away, and we are in a position because of where our cap is, that we just can't go out and buy them, so as you ask....what do we do? Well, there is no reason to go back in time and cry about Benning signings or such, but what do we do going forward? 

 

I do not think it is a scorched earth type of thing, but, we need to take a step back for a year or 2.  We need 2 things at the top. #1. that RHD everyone talks about, and #2. a playmaking Center. We have 3 good centers in Miller, Horvat and Pettersson, and none are play makers. The only place you can consistently get them is at the top of the draft.

They don't need to be #1 or #2 OA picks, but they have to be top 6 or 7, for sure.

 

The problem we have  are, we are close, and not close enough, we are a top 16 team, but not a top 10 team, we are strong in certain area's, but do not have over all strength or depth.

 

How do these team build competitive teams? Through the draft!

 

Tampa, through the draft, Florida through the draft, Colorado through the draft, now Ottawa, Anaheim and LA.........all through the draft. A better example, is how we did it. Which, if you look at it closely, Hank Sedin, Daniel Sedin, Kesler, Bieska, Edler, Hansen, all through the draft. Yes, there were signed players, and traded players, but that was done through  depth and the Draft.

 

Take a look back at the trade......the one which I think set the Canucks up for years..................Trevor Linden for Todd Bertuzzi and Bryan McCabe........this is not possible if it was not for drafting Trevor Linden, who became Burtuzzi, and through extension Hank and Daniel Sedin. Bertuzzi later becoming Luongo, who later became Markstrom. That is where the chain stops because, well according to CDC, you can not trade away fan Favorites Sedin's or Markstrom.

 

How does this all apply today...........well, we don't have the horses, and we won't in time, to enjoy the youth of Pettersson, Hughes and Demko, which is where it truly ends, because sadly, Boeser is not in the same ilk.

 

We have to step back, or we will be having Anaheim, and LA pass us by...........and quickly! If they already haven't!

 

IMO, we need to keep all top end players 25 years and under..................Demko, Pettersson, Hughes, Boeser, Podkolzin, Rathbone, Hoglander, Lockwood, Woo

Then we need to keep some support players............Lammikko, Highmore, Martin, and Dermott

We need to identify other support prospects with in the system.....Silvos, Klimovich, Karlsson, McDonaugh, Zlodeyev, Truscott, Utunen, Persson, Myrenberg, Jurmo, Forsell

 

We need to sign NCAA Jake Livingston

 

Then we need to look at who is left..............Miller, Garland, Pearson, OEL and Myers.........all have value if the trade is designed properly, with no assets going out, and lots coming in.

 

I think people honestly see us having a chance at the top in 1/2 years, and I suggest it is more like 3/4 years

 

But Jan, building through the draft isn't a 2 year process. We don't fill our current needs via the draft. 

 

We have to dump our middling-meh contracts: Pearson, Dickie, Poolman - thats your money for Nick Paul and Deslauriers.

 

Next is smart trades: Garland for a pick, flip the pick for Crouse. Trade Brock for a RHD.

 

We can't build via the draft in the 16-32 range in a hurry. You can only build quickly through the draft if you're in the top 5 a few times in a row.  

 

Also, Calgary didn't do it all via the draft - current lineup has 7 drafted guys on it. 7. 

 

 

Edited April 4, 2022 by JM_

[camaro ss]

Reading all this is great and all…but can u convince these gready owners to go through a proper retool or rebuild. Making the playoffs every year shouldn’t be in the cards every single year when a true professional is telling to tear it down. I mean how much money do u really need. 

[Fred65]

The error ( IMO ) is to judge all draft picks equally, they're not, if you're drafting top 5 it's better than bottom five. I know this is extreme but it high lights the difference of not only drafting but drafting equally. JB and Vcr enjoyed high picks becuase they were a team that failed to improve year after year. We failed to improve!! Some times depending on the depth of the draft and others going off the board you can stumble into a good player a little later. But averaging it out top 5-10 are the plumb picks and the bottom 5-10 picks are runners up. JB had a lot of top picks because as a club we failed fro 8 years

[Petey Castiglione]

#1 Priority should be to focus on building the defense group.  With Demko and a top 10 defense group, we would be a contender.   There's no easy way to do this, looking at the current D pool we have Hughes, OEL, Myers, Schenn, Poolman, Dermott, Burroughs, Hunt, Rathbone, Juulsen, Bowey, (whoever else you want to throw in).  That depth is atrocious.  In the top 6 it looks like we have 3 LH puck movers and 3 RH defensive dmen.  Problem is the quality and as @aGENT has been chiming on, no young prospects that look like they can take on larger roles on the roster and no partner for Hughes to play with for the next decade.

 

Tall order to ask but we have options.  JB may not have left us much in the way of defense but we have some good goaltending/forward depth and its obvious we need to move some forwards to reconstruct the defense.  Who to trade is a different question.  The Dermott trade was a good sign they're going down that road but is a far cry from building the defense group to a contender. 

 

#2 Center Depth.  Realistically, we have Miller, Horvat and Lammikko as our centers.  We still don't have Petey full time playing in the middle but if he did our depth settles in nicely.  Lammikko has been a great find.  If we trade Miller for Defense then we'll need to go shopping for a Center AND hope Petey can play C full time.  This leads us to trading Garland/Boeser/Hoglander? for defense. 

 

If/when those things are done we still wont be a contender but we'll be closer.  We need to keep building on what we have while getting rid of what is no longer useful.  That means, no holding onto players if they no longer fit the roster/organization direction.  No trading picks unless necessary or we're actually in contending status.  Let's hoard assets, keep the best stuff and keep doing so until we win a championship.

 

[higgyfan]

11 minutes ago, Fanuck said:

I know what you mean about finding players in the draft that outperform their draft rank, but I'm not sure the Lightning are your best example - they found some gems in the draft but they also have a first overall and a second overall as franchise players on their team for the past decade and a half. 

For sure, Hedman and Stamkos (and their awesome contracts) are huge players on the Lightning

and (luckinly) still are.  After those guys, everyone else on the team are late round picks; many who

have developed into excellent players. That's what makes a team able to sustain their level of play for

such a long while.

 

There are other teams that have more high picks, but are floundering, due to oversized salaries

and below value play.

 

A lot of factors in building a contender, that's for sure.

 

 

 

 

[IBatch]

6 minutes ago, JM_ said:

But Jan, building through the draft isn't a 2 year process. We don't fill our current needs via the draft. 

 

We have to dump our middling-meh contracts: Pearson, Dickie, Poolman - thats your money for Nick Paul and Deslauriers.

 

Next is smart trades: Garland for a pick, flip the pick for Crouse. Trade Brock for a RHD.

 

We can't build via the draft in the 16-32 range in a hurry. You can only build quickly through the draft if you're in the top 5 a few times in a row.  

 

Also, Calgary didn't do it all via the draft - current lineup has 7 drafted guys on it. 7. 

 

 

JM make it so!  I agree all his could work.   Just hope that the Canucks keep pushing and that our guys seem that valuable to other teams this off season.

 

 I'm also ok with "rinse repeat".   To me if the team doesn't quit and we are close by the end of the year with Bruce's sample size - that's enough to give us another go next year.   Our forwards are young.   Our D well QHs is and Rathbone could make the team as well.  To me this doesn't need to be the end - but could be the beginning.   Yes we need an eye to the future - on our D especially.    But it doesn't have to be a full major reconstruction either.   I'm willing to wait until next TDL to find out.   A little bit of core ascension isn't hard to ask.   These guys are either entering, in their, or about to enter their primes.   I hope we fight until the end.  

[Heretic]

We need a 50 goal scorer to be a contender threat.

 

Only 2 players in Canucks history did that, Bure and Mogilny - and Bure did it 3 times.