J.T. Miller -- Low Probability of a 7 or 8 Year Deal

[mikeyman109]

5 minutes ago, IBatch said:

I'm not so sure.   That's a lot of money and he'd be one of the highest paid forwards in the league ... don't forget he's already made money for a decade ... 

it is a lot of money for sure but the decision is probably on if thats the most money offered

[Alflives]

11 minutes ago, aGENT said:

If we're able to sign him to a 5 year deal, under $10m, I'd be ecstatic. Doubt that's realistic though.

50 million isn't enough.  Going to be in the 60's.  JR has a history of signing longer term deals to reduce the cap.  I see 8 years.  We need to fit Petey in too, when he comes up in two years. 

[HKSR]

2 minutes ago, Alflives said:

50 million isn't enough.  Going to be in the 60's.  JR has a history of signing longer term deals to reduce the cap.  I see 8 years.  We need to fit Petey in too, when he comes up in two years. 

If it does go 8 years, it'll have to be in the mid to low $7M range.  I'd be ok with that too.  When the cap is up in the mid $90s or low $100M range, $7Mish as a cap hit % would be very manageable.

[IBatch]

6 minutes ago, Alflives said:

50 million isn't enough.  Going to be in the 60's.  JR has a history of signing longer term deals to reduce the cap.  I see 8 years.  We need to fit Petey in too, when he comes up in two years. 

It is if they bonus the money out.   One million base, rest as bonuses.   If he signs until he's 38 very high chance he's bought out like Parise and Suter.   Won't get his money out.   Close to   50 for us done this way (9.5 x 5) compared to 8 x 8 ... or 7.5 x 8 straight money he almost certainly ends up ahead.  And so does the team.   The guaranteed money plus ROI front loading it a little ... makes it work better for both parties.   If Miller isn't injured and still is good at 36/37 then he makes even more money too.   

Edited April 29, 2022 by IBatch

[IBatch]

1 minute ago, HKSR said:

If it does go 8 years, it'll have to be in the mid to low $7M range.  I'd be ok with that too.  When the cap is up in the mid $90s or low $100M range, $7Mish as a cap hit % would be very manageable.

That's about where it would need to be.  Right around 7. 

[-DLC-]

45 minutes ago, gurn said:

will he be elite at the end of a 8 yr deal?

or 7

or 6

or 5

or 4

or is this his peak year and the next two are close, but it is all downhill from there?

 

No one knows. But it's also true for whoever he would bring in return and people talk in certainties there. Like it's an instant win. There are always "if's" involved but we know what we have in JT right now and that matters. How do you replace that?

 

I mean, there are guys in their 30's who are still sustaining a good pace and value for teams and it's not a matter of being washed up. People just assume there's an immediate and glaring decline, but it doesn't necessarily make it so.

 

JT's game doesn't rely on speed which is the most noticeable "loss" we'd expect to see over the threshold of 30. So it's not like him slowing down will necessarily mean it's over for him. As long as he has the drive and determination to win, that's what'll propel him. 

 

People still have PTSD over Loui but JT's not Loui, he's the opposite of Loui. I don't know that you could find 2 more different personalities.

[Gurn]

5 minutes ago, -DLC- said:

but we know what we have in JT right now and that matters.

We know what he is right now.

 

A player having what is to this point, a career year.

 

everything else is just speculation.

[Coconuts]

26 minutes ago, IBatch said:

I'm also ok with moving on from Miller if talks are too far apart.    Just read an interesting article on what a 5 year deal could look like.   9.5 x 5... All bonus laden so he get most of the money no matter what - compared to a 8.5 x 8 year deal with no bonus money (which he most certainly gets bought out from ages 36-38.75 ....) and decent ROI he'd come out with about the same or more possibly depending on when the buyout happens .    That's not a bad deal at all for the club or Miller.   It's designed the same way Zib's is.     They also doubt he's getting a full term deal - the only guys getting 10% of their teams cap hit and still producing in their mid 30's are Ovi and Bergeron - two top 100 player all-time types.   Miller isn't worth a deal to us that won't work.   Better off cutting bait.    Tough but that's the cap era for you.    Both Sedins 11%ish cap hits cap at a time after a couple PPG seasons and weren't long term deals.   I suspect the same will happen with Miller.   We get two at most three boffo years out of him then a couple decent ones and that's it.    Miller can make more later too IF he's still good ... 

I guess it comes down to dollars and term, I'm super cagey on signing him long term and I've been clear on that for months. I just can't help but wonder what it'd take to get him on a five year deal because I do think he could get 60M from the Canucks. 

 

I'm still hoping we find a way to move him and garner young NHL ready assets or pieces that upgrade our D/prospect pool. We could use whatever cap he'd have eaten up to bolster the roster as well. I still see this team's defense as it's weakest link. 

[IBatch]

2 minutes ago, -DLC- said:

No one knows. But it's also true for whoever he would bring in return and people talk in certainties there. Like it's an instant win. There are always "if's" involved but we know what we have in JT right now and that matters. How do you replace that?

 

I mean, there are guys in their 30's who are still sustaining a good pace and value for teams and it's not a matter of being washed up. People just assume there's an immediate and glaring decline, but it doesn't necessarily make it so.

 

JT's game doesn't rely on speed which is the most noticeable "loss" we'd expect to see over the threshold of 30. So it's not like him slowing down will necessarily mean it's over for him. As long as he has the drive and determination to win, that's what'll propel him. 

Deb - bottom line he's not replaceable.   And nobody knows what's going to happen.   He loves it here, the team loves him, the coach is coming back and he loves him (and playing him too - think he's 6-7th most played forward in the league right now), the fans love him.   He's coming back unless his agent is a total douche (it happens).   Miller is going to be rewarded by us most likely for his awesome play - and Miller is going to also reward us for giving him that chance.   He's flat out said he's extremely appreciative for getting the chance.   We are all a bunch of anxious ninnies  talking circles around it lol.   I kind of hope they just announce as soon as the season is over so we can stop.   Miller is so easy to like.   It's refreshing actually.   Been awhile. 

[mikeyman109]

1 minute ago, Coconuts said:

I guess it comes down to dollars and term, I'm super cagey on signing him long term and I've been clear on that for months. I just can't help but wonder what it'd take to get him on a five year deal because I do think he could get 60M from the Canucks. 

 

I'm still hoping we find a way to move him and garner young NHL ready assets or pieces that upgrade our D/prospect pool. We could use whatever cap he'd have eaten up to bolster the roster as well. I still see this team's defense as it's weakest link. 

I think the same risk applies to adding pieces a team is willing to offer in trade for Miller as what he could regress to. Just because they are NHL ready prospects doesnt mean they become better players than what we have currently. Miller could go on to have 4 or 5 100 point seasons somewhere else.

[hammertime]

59 minutes ago, aGENT said:

If we're able to sign him to a 5 year deal, under $10m, I'd be ecstatic. Doubt that's realistic though.

5x10.5 I'm fine with. Like we won't be able to replace 100pts via trade. It's not just the points though, Marner could put up 100 too but doesn't hit or win FO's or battle down low or lead the charge the way Miller does. The cost to fill the void would greatly exceed 10M in salary alone not factoring in the additional moves that would need to be made that would weaken us in other ways. Ideally we get him on a 5 year deal even if its a big number he has earned a big number. If we get him on a 8 year deal 7.75-8.25m I would also do. I think he ages more like Marleau than Player Name. End of the day I think he gambles on himself and takes the higher number 5 year contract in hopes that he's still playing in the league at 38-40 on a 5-6m retirement contract he signed at 35.  

 

Brock's gotta go that money reallocates to Miller. We lose a 1 dimensional 25 goal scorer. I think we see Podkolzin Garland Hughes Pete elevate their games and fill that void without issue. Holtbeast, Halak, Virtanen come off the cap in 2023 Possibly the cap goes up a bit and we have more than enough $$ to re up Bo and start planning for EP's extension. 

 

I think present tense our D group is not an area of Immediate need. The focus in this regard needs to be the future because it's bleak. We need a home run at the draft this year on the back end. Also I think we need to find out what we have in Jack Rathbone. If we don't do something now about the future of our D it's only going to get harder to correct. 

 

 

 

Edited April 29, 2022 by hammertime

[wai_lai416]

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

I'm not so sure.   That's a lot of money and he'd be one of the highest paid forwards in the league ... don't forget he's already made money for a decade ... 

ya no thx to anything close to 9.5-10mil.. if EP carries on his play since boudreau took over?? then what the heck is he gonna ask for in 2 years?.. let's just say EP hits 90 point next season and a tad bit more the season after.. it's a lot of IFs but did he not look like a completely different player since boudreau took over and he's starting to have fun on the ice again? without the horrid start maybe wrist not fully healed.. or if we had boudreau earlier.. we could be looking at almost 40 goal if not 40 goal season from EP.. and his next contract is going to be the meat of his prime.. i don't want that 9.5-10mil becomes the floor for his next contract.. 

[HKSR]

50 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

I guess it comes down to dollars and term, I'm super cagey on signing him long term and I've been clear on that for months. I just can't help but wonder what it'd take to get him on a five year deal because I do think he could get 60M from the Canucks. 

 

I'm still hoping we find a way to move him and garner young NHL ready assets or pieces that upgrade our D/prospect pool. We could use whatever cap he'd have eaten up to bolster the roster as well. I still see this team's defense as it's weakest link. 

Miller's camp asks for $60M

Canucks go with $50M

 

Settles at $55M.  Right around the ballpark in my original post.

 

$55M over 6 years is $9.2M.

[Gurn]

5 minutes ago, HKSR said:

$55M over 6 years is $9.2M.

No thanks, then.

[SilentSam]

3 hours ago, -DLC- said:

No one knows. But it's also true for whoever he would bring in return and people talk in certainties there. Like it's an instant win. There are always "if's" involved but we know what we have in JT right now and that matters. How do you replace that?

 

I mean, there are guys in their 30's who are still sustaining a good pace and value for teams and it's not a matter of being washed up. People just assume there's an immediate and glaring decline, but it doesn't necessarily make it so.

 

JT's game doesn't rely on speed which is the most noticeable "loss" we'd expect to see over the threshold of 30. So it's not like him slowing down will necessarily mean it's over for him. As long as he has the drive and determination to win, that's what'll propel him. 

 

People still have PTSD over Loui but JT's not Loui, he's the opposite of Loui. I don't know that you could find 2 more different personalities.

^^^ My favourite hockey mom right here  

 

[JM_]

5 hours ago, gurn said:

will he be elite at the end of a 8 yr deal?

or 7

or 6

or 5

or 4

or is this his peak year and the next two are close, but it is all downhill from there?

 

what player doesn't decline eventually? that doesn't mean you never sign them, or that they will be useless during the decline. 

[JM_]

4 hours ago, gurn said:

We know what he is right now.

 

A player having what is to this point, a career year.

 

everything else is just speculation.

thats the nature of sports business. There's nothing unique about Miller, compared to say Darnell Nurse. Both will decline. So what? its how the business works, every team has salaries like this. 

[IBatch]

4 hours ago, wai_lai416 said:

ya no thx to anything close to 9.5-10mil.. if EP carries on his play since boudreau took over?? then what the heck is he gonna ask for in 2 years?.. let's just say EP hits 90 point next season and a tad bit more the season after.. it's a lot of IFs but did he not look like a completely different player since boudreau took over and he's starting to have fun on the ice again? without the horrid start maybe wrist not fully healed.. or if we had boudreau earlier.. we could be looking at almost 40 goal if not 40 goal season from EP.. and his next contract is going to be the meat of his prime.. i don't want that 9.5-10mil becomes the floor for his next contract.. 

If EP does that then we are going to be a great team the next two seasons. 

[IBatch]

6 minutes ago, JM_ said:

thats the nature of sports business. There's nothing unique about Miller, compared to say Darnell Nurse. Both will decline. So what? its how the business works, every team has salaries like this. 

Yes a lot more the a few.  Our last core is a great example of that.   Despite the MG cap saving deals none aged that well.   It's the cost of doing business though.   Difference is this team has cost control on EP, QHs, Demko, Garland ... and Podz 

Edited April 29, 2022 by IBatch

[JM_]

7 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Yes a lot more the a few.  Our last core is a great example of that.   Despite the MG cap saving deals none aged that well.   It's the cost of doing business though.   Difference is this team has cost control on EP, QHs, Demko, Garland ... and Podz 

the argument that Miller will eventually decline, so don't sign him is a bit funny to me. You only get so many elite years out of a player no matter who they are, but if you don't keep them you won't get to have those productive years. 

 

It seems to come down to who buys in to the 'step back to go forward' position or the win with this core position. I see much more risk in the 'step back' thing but others don't. I suspect JR/PA will do all they can to keep Miller but I guess we'll find out.