[Signing] Canucks re-sign J.T. Miller

[SilentSam]

35 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

Happy to turn your crank,.  Now get out there and rip it up Slinky !!

[aGENT]

54 minutes ago, BigTramFan said:

Yes, in 2 years' time, like all contending teams we will likely need to move out an older guy and insert a younger guy on a lower cost contract. If we trade that F for a D then we don't reduce depth we just move our depth from F to D.

 

There are also reports that the cap may take a significant jump in 2023-24 so that might be enough to cover Pettersson's pay rise without moving another forward.

The depth I'm referring to was moving said forward + additional pieces (Boeser+Rathbone+pick for example) is more than just moving Miller.

[Cromeslab]

2 hours ago, SilentSam said:

I’m not saying this to be coy or bait..  

but there’s a better chance that Pettersson dosent perform to level your thinking or hoping he will..   and he himself may be the guy to move.

Demko may yet be our first 10 m player.

 

 I just don’t see EP becoming a player whose caliber can be compared to guys like McD, Ovie, Crosby, ect.

Hard to depend on ECL’s to carry a team these days.

 

im not knocking your point,   I’m just being more open minded about what you’ve stated.

 

 

We can’t afford Demko @10mil let’s not get too far ahead of ourselfs here

[SilentSam]

32 minutes ago, Cromeslab said:

We can’t afford Demko @10mil let’s not get too far ahead of ourselfs here

Pretty sure he shows what is worth what at the next worlds..  

[Goal:thecup]

2 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

Is that Swedish?

Or his favorite Korean band?

Phoo Kin Bastaads?

Help me out @Timråfan lol

[NHL97OneTimer]

4 hours ago, Goal:thecup said:

Imagine Bo's leverage coming up to unrestricted free agency just when the cap shoots up.

2 years would line him up with Petey's next contract too.

6 years at $7 or 2 years at $7 and 8 years at $9.2?

The fact that I can't see him at $7M/yr right now but also can't see him signing for $6.5M/yr on a long-term contract underlines the challenge I see ahead with Bo's contract.  With that said, I can see them trading Boeser and overpaying Bo before losing Bo.

[NHL97OneTimer]

3 hours ago, SilentSam said:

I’m not saying this to be coy or bait..  

but there’s a better chance that Pettersson dosent perform to level your thinking or hoping he will..   and he himself may be the guy to move.

Demko may yet be our first 10 m player.

 

 I just don’t see EP becoming a player whose caliber can be compared to guys like McD, Ovie, Crosby, ect.

Hard to depend on ECL’s to carry a team these days.

 

im not knocking your point,   I’m just being more open minded about what you’ve stated.

 

 

Tough to disagree with you there.  At this point I see Miller's salary as his ceiling.  Miller brings more intangibles and leadership plus puts up the points. EP is a better version of BB at this point but still early to tell.......and this isn't a slight against EP.

Edited September 8, 2022 by NHL97OneTimer

[Timråfan]

5 hours ago, SilentSam said:

I’m not saying this to be coy or bait..  

but there’s a better chance that Pettersson dosent perform to level your thinking or hoping he will..   and he himself may be the guy to move.

Demko may yet be our first 10 m player.

 

 I just don’t see EP becoming a player whose caliber can be compared to guys like McD, Ovie, Crosby, ect.

Hard to depend on ECL’s to carry a team these days.

 

im not knocking your point,   I’m just being more open minded about what you’ve stated.

 

 

Well, he’s head and shoulders above Miller so… As for now he is between players like Miller and McD. If Petey can take the next step is harder to know. He might just stay at the head-and-shoulders-above-Miller level. 

[Timråfan]

2 hours ago, Goal:thecup said:

Is that Swedish?

Or his favorite Korean band?

Phoo Kin Bastaads?

Help me out @Timråfan lol

Hard for me too, maybe @ForzaTikare can help out.

[Hairy Kneel]

6 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

[IBatch]

15 hours ago, tas said:

ok. but you don't re-sign a guy you respect to a 3 year bargain contract and then turn around and trade him immediately, so you can pretty much take it to the bank that that won't happen. 

It's not a bargain contract, and neither was his last one.   A RFA should be a bargain deal ... Millers is an example of a bargain deal, and that included UFA years too.     It's a decent deal - IF he scores 30 goals and 30 assists. 

[IBatch]

3 hours ago, Timråfan said:

Well, he’s head and shoulders above Miller so… As for now he is between players like Miller and McD. If Petey can take the next step is harder to know. He might just stay at the head-and-shoulders-above-Miller level. 

Lol.   He had 10 points the first 22 games  and looked totally lost a lot of games.   Miller produced under Green the entire time.   Aside from the first couple months his rookie season,  we haven't seen EP heads and shoulders above anyone.   And didn't earn his first year bridge either.    As an RFA we are expecting 80 points from him and hoping for a lot more at close to 8 million .   Second half and under Bruce Miller scored 60 points  ... EP managed a PPG.    27 points in 13ish games at one point (Miller's point streak).   Was on pace for 120 points.    EP at least seemed like what we hoped he'd become and for sure is younger and doing more then Miller did at the same age - but isn't the better player - yet.    Miller also insulates EP, takes the majority of the draws etc.   EP 44% face off's, Miller 54%ish.  

 

One had established himself as a leader, a guy who put the team on his shoulders, the other is mercurial still - a little bit like Kovalev without the ability to stay on his skates when bumped (but at least draws us a ton of penalties!).    Miller a mainstay on special teams - EP added to the PK and will say that really helped things - he's already on par or better then Miller on the PK. 

 

Yes one day EP SHOULD be the better player,  but he's not there yet.    It's pretty amazing to think that we have 3 top 25-30 C's.    EPs goals per game thankfully stepped up  -  he's supposed to be one of the shooters on the PP, QHs and Miller are main set-up guys.  

[IBatch]

6 hours ago, NHL97OneTimer said:

Tough to disagree with you there.  At this point I see Miller's salary as his ceiling.  Miller brings more intangibles and leadership plus puts up the points. EP is a better version of BB at this point but still early to tell.......and this isn't a slight against EP.

Yes.   EP is probably the most skilled guy on our team.   And has the most upside given his age.    The guys at the next level - start and maintain it from the start, the McDavids, Crosby's, Stamkos's, Malkins, Ovi's, Kanes, Mathews of the league.     EP had a glorious couple months to start his career - and really Brock was equal to the task his rookie season as well, not as high at the highs, but consistent until his injury (damn JV...you sure were bad luck/karma/pick).      Brock hasn't taken the next step yet is still getting paid for the potential.    At his pay scale just to break even as an RFA he needs to get us 30-30 or a bit more.    Can he do it?  For sure.   Will he?   Not so sure at all.  

 

EP signed a bridge that was a high tax Canuck one.   In Vegas or TB 7 would have been about the same.   What it means for us is he needs to score 35-42 or so points (goals and apples).    IF he plays 80ish games and produces like he did under Bruce that seems more likely then Brocks current deal.    We actually don't get added value unless he's scoring 90-100.  

 

Pearson, Podz, Garland, Miller, Horvat  and Demko were our highest value contracts last year.   For sure goals should be weighted higher then second assists.   And most primary ones too - but those guys are examples of getting good ROI.  

 

Horvat outperformed  his contract by one million last year according to the math nerds.    Career high in goals helped, and of course his face off acumen, one of the best in the league.  Garland scored 49 EV points ... that's close to elite actually.    Miller 5.25 - 99 points.      Yes EP and Brock provided great value for our team during their short but sweet ELC's.   Podz should do that for us again this year.   Demko was recently ranked the sixth best goalie in the league by NHL.com.   For sure he's one of maybe a dozen true number one goalies in the league.    He's not the sixth highest paid goalie is he?    Brock on the other hand - is getting paid like a top RW in this league, but only really managed it twice.   Not a good value deal, still paying based on potential. 

 

Not to pick on EP and Brock, love both those guys.   But we actually do need them both to take the next step.   If they do, this team could be awfully scary.   Like we saw down the stretch.     We know what we have in Horvat, Miller, Pearson and the older vets.    They've all taken the next step(s).    Garland and Kuzmo are both guys who could surprise too.   Brock and EP need to score us 30 plus goals each ... and hopefully can score 35-40.     Both of the them, are still getting paid based on potential. 

 

Edit: Ilya M.   Thought he was overpaid and still do.   That said he was buried in TO's lineup and did that primarily as third liner and four of those were short handed.   21 goals in less then 60 games is very good for his line... Feel the teams strategy is for sure to trade one of Brock or Garland.   Our RW depth is pretty awesome.    And that Horvat plays with Ilya M as our shut-down third line possibly.    We won't have two good lines, we will have three.   And this year, is the clubs max cap advantage one with this core.  

 

 

Edited September 8, 2022 by IBatch

[DownUndaCanuck]

It's hard to guess how JT will do over his 8 year deal, the pessimist in me says he drops to a 70-80 point player next year and then 60 point player for a couple of years and is then useless after 34 years old. Personally I'd have waited until next off-season to decide what to do with his contract but obviously that's a lot of stress and anxiety. An extra year would help tell us how he's going to perform in his 30s, but if he smashes a 90+ point season again then he'd cost way too much (although who would pay a 30 year old a long term 9-10M contract?).

 

Realistically I think JT hits an 85-90 point season next year (when he's 30), a 70-80 point season the following year (31), then I think he'll be a very useful middle 6 forward and score another 60 points for a good year or two (32-33) and after that I fear he'll drop to around a 40 point pace onwards (34-37) until he retires. Obviously 8M for the last few years will hurt but I'm sure we'll move him or buy him out eventually, or the cap will hopefully rise a lot. He's got a lot of top 6 years in him and I'd like to see his defensive game refine a bit as he gets older so he can take a 2C or 3C shutdown role. If he does that then he'll be very useful throughout the contract.

[Mustard Tiger]

10 hours ago, canuck73_3 said:

Be respectful to our first 10mill GOAT 

 

 

 

How did we even have 10m to sign him anyways lol

[Goal:thecup]

1 minute ago, Mustard Tiger said:

How did we even have 10m to sign him anyways lol

Laurence Gillman

[Timråfan]

2 hours ago, IBatch said:

Lol.   He had 10 points the first 22 games  and looked totally lost a lot of games.   Miller produced under Green the entire time.   Aside from the first couple months his rookie season,  we haven't seen EP heads and shoulders above anyone.   And didn't earn his first year bridge either.    As an RFA we are expecting 80 points from him and hoping for a lot more at close to 8 million .   Second half and under Bruce Miller scored 60 points  ... EP managed a PPG.    27 points in 13ish games at one point (Miller's point streak).   Was on pace for 120 points.    EP at least seemed like what we hoped he'd become and for sure is younger and doing more then Miller did at the same age - but isn't the better player - yet.    Miller also insulates EP, takes the majority of the draws etc.   EP 44% face off's, Miller 54%ish.  

 

One had established himself as a leader, a guy who put the team on his shoulders, the other is mercurial still - a little bit like Kovalev without the ability to stay on his skates when bumped (but at least draws us a ton of penalties!).    Miller a mainstay on special teams - EP added to the PK and will say that really helped things - he's already on par or better then Miller on the PK. 

 

Yes one day EP SHOULD be the better player,  but he's not there yet.    It's pretty amazing to think that we have 3 top 25-30 C's.    EPs goals per game thankfully stepped up  -  he's supposed to be one of the shooters on the PP, QHs and Miller are main set-up guys.  

Well, didn’t injuries play a part in the 22 games? 
A big part of Millers point production is that he’s smart enough to put him between Hughes and Petey. 
That means Miller gets an abundance of points Petey has to fight harder for.

Put Petey in between he still lets Miller in on it. 
The difference between Petey and Miller…

 

[SilentSam]

7 hours ago, Timråfan said:

Well, he’s head and shoulders above Miller so… As for now he is between players like Miller and McD. If Petey can take the next step is harder to know. He might just stay at the head-and-shoulders-above-Miller level. 

Not there yet.  Bambi was over paid for last season.

see what he progresses to.

[IBatch]

12 hours ago, canuck73_3 said:

Be respectful to our first 10mill GOAT 

 

 

 

What was that cap hit again?  Felt and still does, like a kick-back. 

[AV.]

2 hours ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

It's hard to guess how JT will do over his 8 year deal, the pessimist in me says he drops to a 70-80 point player next year and then 60 point player for a couple of years and is then useless after 34 years old. Personally I'd have waited until next off-season to decide what to do with his contract but obviously that's a lot of stress and anxiety. An extra year would help tell us how he's going to perform in his 30s, but if he smashes a 90+ point season again then he'd cost way too much (although who would pay a 30 year old a long term 9-10M contract?).

 

Realistically I think JT hits an 85-90 point season next year (when he's 30), a 70-80 point season the following year (31), then I think he'll be a very useful middle 6 forward and score another 60 points for a good year or two (32-33) and after that I fear he'll drop to around a 40 point pace onwards (34-37) until he retires. Obviously 8M for the last few years will hurt but I'm sure we'll move him or buy him out eventually, or the cap will hopefully rise a lot. He's got a lot of top 6 years in him and I'd like to see his defensive game refine a bit as he gets older so he can take a 2C or 3C shutdown role. If he does that then he'll be very useful throughout the contract.

The bolded is not pessimistic, though.  There's nothing to suggest in his career that his 99 point season is indicative of the norm.  At 29 turning 30, he'd be a statistical anomaly to produce at that rate again.  I can't speak for when he'll decline (hopefully not for 3-4 years, minimum) but anybody expecting him to replicate a near 100 point season would be foolish to do so.  

Markus Naslund at 30 - 104 pts, then a point-per-game season after, then back down to 60/70 point range into this 30s
Sedins at 30 - 100 pt players, then a slow decline toward point-per-game, and then 50/60 pt players

And with respect to Miller, those players had a few season hovering around point-per-game/~90 points before hitting their career highs.   I think we'll be very fortunate if Miller hits 70-80 points next season, but is able to replicate that for a few more seasons.