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The Canucks would be better off moving Elias Pettersson than Bo Horvat

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Ruthervin

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On 12/17/2022 at 4:12 PM, Ruthervin said:

The Canucks would be better off moving Elias Pettersson than Bo Horvat

 

The “narrative” amongst many media members and fans is that the Canucks should build around Pettersson, Demko, and Hughes while attempting to trade pretty much anyone else (ie Horvat, Kuzmenko, Garland, and Miller/OEL/Boeser if they are at all moveable).   The problem with that strategy however is as follows:

 

1) If the Canucks choose to do a rebuild, you will waste the prime years of Hughes and Demko where they are on good cap hits.  By the time the Canucks were to emerge out of a retool, guys like Hughes and Demko would be at or near contract expiration.   
 

2) If the Canucks go through another rebuild, there’s a risk that Pettersson will not want to stay here, and will pull a Matt Tkachuk.  Yes, JP Barry went on the air yesterday and mentioned that Petey loves it here, and sees the Matt Barzal contract as a comparable, but there are no guarantees.  Petey has also stated in the past that he wants to win a cup and that if he doesn’t feel the organization is progressing, he’d consider all options (didn’t say this explicitly but rather implied it).

 

3) Guys like Garland, OEL, Mikheyev, Kuzmenko, and Miller were specifically brought in here and/or signed here because they were lead to believe that the Canucks would be pushing towards being competitive and pushing towards being a playoff team.  IF Rutherford-Alvin went off in a different direction at this point, it would send a TERRIBLE message to these players, as well as future free agents. Like it or not, the Canucks made their decision about this organization with the Miller signing.  With Miller and OEL here for the long term and basically being almost impossible to move, the Canucks have to push forward with this core:

 

[b]Now, you may be asking, “well what the hell does this have to do with wanting to keep Horvat over Pettersson?” [/b]

 

The answer is as follows:   The Canucks biggest organizational weakness right now is their team structure. Although they are very deep up front, many of these forwards aren’t very good on the back check….which is problematic since our defense is very anemic…..which ultimately results in the Canucks giving uo and inordinately high number of high danger chances.  The ONLY way to fix this deep structural flaw is to acquire an elite top pairing right handed defenseman that can not only help elevate Hughes to the top pairing but can also serve as that “shut down” all situations horse that can minimize Hughes’ weaknesses while maximizing Hughes strengths.  A younger version of Chris Tanev……the Brent Seabrook to Quinn Hughes’ Duncan Keith if you will.  The Canucks need someone like Noah Dobson or Braden Schneider (I won’t mention Moritz Seider because he’s untouchable now), and the only guy that the Canucks have that can acquire such a piece is Elias Pettersson.  
 

While a guy like Horvat will fetch you a 1st rounder and a decent prospect, he’s not going to fetch you the next Brent Seabrook which is EXACTLY what this team needs both short term and long term.  With the Canucks being structurally flawed, it wouldn’t matter if we had Connor McDavid in this team (instead of Horvat).  Hell, it wouldn’t even matter if the Canucks had a very deep prospect pool.  The Canucks, as they are right now, would be doomed to fail because of their tire fire defense.  The only way to fix that is to trade Pettersson for an elite RD.  By doing that, it would create a rippling effect.  
 

Hughes-[PetterssonTrade]
OEL-Bear

Schenn-Myers

 

With [PetterssonTrade], you’d elevate Hughes to the top pairing and have a guy that would help maximize Hughes’ strengths while minimizing his weaknesses.  Similar to what Chris Tanev did in 2019-2020.  OEL-Bear would then avoid taking on the toughest match ups while Schenn could help carry Myers on the 3rd pairing.  Eventually, once Pearson and Myers come off the books, you could have the following structure:

 

Hughes-[PetterssonTrade]
#####-Bear

OEL-####
 

You can sign a good 2nd pairing dman to play with Bear on the 2nd pairing while OEL can play on the 3rd pairing with someone cheap.

 

Defensive structure problem solved.

 

Now, up front?  At center, I would roll with the following:   
 

#####-Horvat#####
#####-Miller-#####
#####-New 3rd line C####
 

Yes, Horvat and Miller as your 1-2 punch down the middle wouldn’t be elite, but it would still be pretty solid….and if the Canucks were to somehow acquire a decent 3rd line center (which is WAY easier than acquiring an elite top pairing RD), then the Canucks would be a very balanced team…..a team that could choose to roll four lines instead of being too heavy.   
 

So, this is what I ultimately propose:

 

1) Trade Pettersson for an elite top pairing RD and a decent 3rd line center. Noah Dobson or Braden Schneider.  So maybe, Pettersson and Schenn for Braden Schneider and Filip Chytl or Pettersson and Schenn for Noah Dobson and Jean Gabriel Pageau.

 

2) Sign Horvat 

 

3) Sign Kuzmenko

 

4) Trade Boeser for a 3rd line center if you don’t trade for a 3rd line C in my 1st move.  So maybe Boeser to Montreal for Monahan if we don’t get Chytyl or Pageau.

 

5) Trade Connor Garland for a draft pick.  This will give us cap space

 

6) If we don’t trade Luke Schenn in my first idea, then move Schenn for a draft pick at the deadline. 
 

7) In the off-season, consider using a sweetener to move Myers and use that money on a good defenseman that can play with Bear on the 2nd pairing.

 

New future lines:

 

Kuzmenko-Horvat-Lazar

Mikheyev-Miller-Hoglander

Pearson-[BoeserTrade]-Podkolzin

#####-Aman-Joshua

 

Hughes-[PetterssonTrade]
#####-Bear

OEL-####
 

Demko

Martin

 

 

 

Yeah I just don't think you're going to convince many on this one. 

Edited by Harold Drunken
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13 minutes ago, Harold Drunken said:

Yeah I just don't think you're going to convince many on this one. 

Agreed.   
 

And like I said, don’t get me wrong.  I absolutely love Pettersson. The problem however is that this team will not go anywhere without an elite defenseman, preferably, the equivalent of a young Brent Seabrook.  
 

Like I said before, this team could literally replace Pettersson and Horvat with McDavid and Draisaitl and they still wouldn’t be an elite team due to their structural flaws (ie weak defense + many of their forwards being defensively impotent).

 

While Alvin is reportedly on the right track in terms of wanting to move Horvat for a young center and young right shot defenseman, the chances of either of those guys becoming elite superstars are slim to none.  Getting guys like Ethan Bear and Brandon Carlo are decent, but those calibre guys aren’t good enough to truly elevate Hughes to the top pairing and become a formidable defensive pairing a la prime Keith-Seabrook.

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1 hour ago, Ruthervin said:

Agreed.   
 

And like I said, don’t get me wrong.  I absolutely love Pettersson. The problem however is that this team will not go anywhere without an elite defenseman, preferably, the equivalent of a young Brent Seabrook.  
 

Like I said before, this team could literally replace Pettersson and Horvat with McDavid and Draisaitl and they still wouldn’t be an elite team due to their structural flaws (ie weak defense + many of their forwards being defensively impotent).

 

While Alvin is reportedly on the right track in terms of wanting to move Horvat for a young center and young right shot defenseman, the chances of either of those guys becoming elite superstars are slim to none.  Getting guys like Ethan Bear and Brandon Carlo are decent, but those calibre guys aren’t good enough to truly elevate Hughes to the top pairing and become a formidable defensive pairing a la prime Keith-Seabrook.

Did you not see what the Canucks looked like on Saturday night with out Petey?

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1 hour ago, spur1 said:

Did you not see what the Canucks looked like on Saturday night with out Petey?

Yes but they were also without Pageau and Dobson in that game.  ;-). Knock on wood, I’m also banking on the fact that Podkolzin will be much better for us next season.

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1 hour ago, StanleyCupOneDay said:

Tonight is a great example of why trading Pettersson would be a terrible idea.

It's not a comparable since tonight's team didn't have the assets that we'd receive in a hypothetical Pettersson deal.  

 

How would Dobson looked along side Hughes?  What if we had a very good 3rd line center playing behind Horvat and Miller?  

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2 hours ago, *Buzzsaw* said:

OP doesn't know what he is talking about.

Perhaps you're right, but I'm at least willing to consider how the following team would perform:

 

Kuzmenko-Horvat-Mikheyev

Hoglander-Miller-Boeser

Pearson-Pageau-Garland

Joshua-Aman-Lazar

 

Hughes-Dobson

OEL-Bear

Stillman-Myers

 

Demko

Martin

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48 minutes ago, Ruthervin said:

Perhaps you're right, but I'm at least willing to consider how the following team would perform:

 

Kuzmenko-Horvat-Mikheyev

Hoglander-Miller-Boeser

Pearson-Pageau-Garland

Joshua-Aman-Lazar

 

Hughes-Dobson

OEL-Bear

Stillman-Myers

 

Demko

Martin

lol the team looks like trash now with the forward group pretty much what u have minus pageau.. they have scored grand total of 2 goals since EP is gone.. and looked absolutely horrible 

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4 hours ago, StanleyCupOneDay said:

Tonight is a great example of why trading Pettersson would be a terrible idea.

 

3 hours ago, aGENT said:

Yup. Didn't even bother watching. No Pettersson? No bueno.

I didn’t watch the game, but according to naturalstattrick the game was in our favour to win. We had more shots, scoring chances, and high-danger scoring chances than the Blues. If anything, Martin and the PK loss us the game. 

 

I’m not opposed to moving Pettersson, if he brings us a significant haul. He’s the only player (aside from Hughes) who has any REAL value on this team and if you’re going to go into a full tear it down rebuild. He should be a top candidate to be moved. 

 

Horvat - Teams will be hesitant to trade for a rental, as they rarely work. 

Miller - Retirement deal are hard to move. 
Boeser - Value has plummeted considerably since his rookie season.

Garland - Overpriced bottom 6 forward.

Myers - No value.

OEL - Little-to-no value.

Schenn - Little value.

Kuzmenko - There’s some value.

Edited by shiznak
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7 hours ago, StanleyCupOneDay said:

Tonight is a great example of why trading Pettersson would be a terrible idea.

Ahhh....But tonight's also a good example of how we're gonna be if we blow up the team, Petey included. 

 

The thing is that, are Huggy, Petey, Demmer still gonna fit the young team profile when we get good enough to be contenders? Would we be rebuilding around said core? I presume much like what was down when the Sedins came into their own.

 

Wow. We've a long way to go. Believe me, I'm not in any way saying that Petey wouldn't play his heart out whenever he's on the ice for us. However his inclusion in the line up, though beneficial, is not gonna prevent management from moving beloved core pieces. Basically Petey or not......we're bound for Bedard!

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On 12/17/2022 at 4:12 PM, Ruthervin said:

The Canucks would be better off moving Elias Pettersson than Bo Horvat

 

The “narrative” amongst many media members and fans is that the Canucks should build around Pettersson, Demko, and Hughes while attempting to trade pretty much anyone else (ie Horvat, Kuzmenko, Garland, and Miller/OEL/Boeser if they are at all moveable).   The problem with that strategy however is as follows:

 

1) If the Canucks choose to do a rebuild, you will waste the prime years of Hughes and Demko where they are on good cap hits.  By the time the Canucks were to emerge out of a retool, guys like Hughes and Demko would be at or near contract expiration.   
 

2) If the Canucks go through another rebuild, there’s a risk that Pettersson will not want to stay here, and will pull a Matt Tkachuk.  Yes, JP Barry went on the air yesterday and mentioned that Petey loves it here, and sees the Matt Barzal contract as a comparable, but there are no guarantees.  Petey has also stated in the past that he wants to win a cup and that if he doesn’t feel the organization is progressing, he’d consider all options (didn’t say this explicitly but rather implied it).

 

3) Guys like Garland, OEL, Mikheyev, Kuzmenko, and Miller were specifically brought in here and/or signed here because they were lead to believe that the Canucks would be pushing towards being competitive and pushing towards being a playoff team.  IF Rutherford-Alvin went off in a different direction at this point, it would send a TERRIBLE message to these players, as well as future free agents. Like it or not, the Canucks made their decision about this organization with the Miller signing.  With Miller and OEL here for the long term and basically being almost impossible to move, the Canucks have to push forward with this core:

 

[b]Now, you may be asking, “well what the hell does this have to do with wanting to keep Horvat over Pettersson?” [/b]

 

The answer is as follows:   The Canucks biggest organizational weakness right now is their team structure. Although they are very deep up front, many of these forwards aren’t very good on the back check….which is problematic since our defense is very anemic…..which ultimately results in the Canucks giving uo and inordinately high number of high danger chances.  The ONLY way to fix this deep structural flaw is to acquire an elite top pairing right handed defenseman that can not only help elevate Hughes to the top pairing but can also serve as that “shut down” all situations horse that can minimize Hughes’ weaknesses while maximizing Hughes strengths.  A younger version of Chris Tanev……the Brent Seabrook to Quinn Hughes’ Duncan Keith if you will.  The Canucks need someone like Noah Dobson or Braden Schneider (I won’t mention Moritz Seider because he’s untouchable now), and the only guy that the Canucks have that can acquire such a piece is Elias Pettersson.  
 

While a guy like Horvat will fetch you a 1st rounder and a decent prospect, he’s not going to fetch you the next Brent Seabrook which is EXACTLY what this team needs both short term and long term.  With the Canucks being structurally flawed, it wouldn’t matter if we had Connor McDavid in this team (instead of Horvat).  Hell, it wouldn’t even matter if the Canucks had a very deep prospect pool.  The Canucks, as they are right now, would be doomed to fail because of their tire fire defense.  The only way to fix that is to trade Pettersson for an elite RD.  By doing that, it would create a rippling effect.  
 

Hughes-[PetterssonTrade]
OEL-Bear

Schenn-Myers

 

With [PetterssonTrade], you’d elevate Hughes to the top pairing and have a guy that would help maximize Hughes’ strengths while minimizing his weaknesses.  Similar to what Chris Tanev did in 2019-2020.  OEL-Bear would then avoid taking on the toughest match ups while Schenn could help carry Myers on the 3rd pairing.  Eventually, once Pearson and Myers come off the books, you could have the following structure:

 

Hughes-[PetterssonTrade]
#####-Bear

OEL-####
 

You can sign a good 2nd pairing dman to play with Bear on the 2nd pairing while OEL can play on the 3rd pairing with someone cheap.

 

Defensive structure problem solved.

 

Now, up front?  At center, I would roll with the following:   
 

#####-Horvat#####
#####-Miller-#####
#####-New 3rd line C####
 

Yes, Horvat and Miller as your 1-2 punch down the middle wouldn’t be elite, but it would still be pretty solid….and if the Canucks were to somehow acquire a decent 3rd line center (which is WAY easier than acquiring an elite top pairing RD), then the Canucks would be a very balanced team…..a team that could choose to roll four lines instead of being too heavy.   
 

So, this is what I ultimately propose:

 

1) Trade Pettersson for an elite top pairing RD and a decent 3rd line center. Noah Dobson or Braden Schneider.  So maybe, Pettersson and Schenn for Braden Schneider and Filip Chytl or Pettersson and Schenn for Noah Dobson and Jean Gabriel Pageau.

 

2) Sign Horvat 

 

3) Sign Kuzmenko

 

4) Trade Boeser for a 3rd line center if you don’t trade for a 3rd line C in my 1st move.  So maybe Boeser to Montreal for Monahan if we don’t get Chytyl or Pageau.

 

5) Trade Connor Garland for a draft pick.  This will give us cap space

 

6) If we don’t trade Luke Schenn in my first idea, then move Schenn for a draft pick at the deadline. 
 

7) In the off-season, consider using a sweetener to move Myers and use that money on a good defenseman that can play with Bear on the 2nd pairing.

 

New future lines:

 

Kuzmenko-Horvat-Lazar

Mikheyev-Miller-Hoglander

Pearson-[BoeserTrade]-Podkolzin

#####-Aman-Joshua

 

Hughes-[PetterssonTrade]
#####-Bear

OEL-####
 

Demko

Martin

 

 

 

Where were you when Petey was absent for 2 games and we lost 5-1? I think you need to re-think your plan genius :lol:

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9 hours ago, Bathgate said:

I was thinking  along these lines, but after seeing Monday's game, I have changed too ep40 must be kept but Hovat, Miller are tradeable. The Miller contract has destroyed the spirit of last year. We are now offence for money, not 2way for the team.

Petersson is our most talented forward. If people are choosing Horvat or Miller over him then I question their Hockey knowledge 

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On 12/20/2022 at 7:14 AM, Sativika said:

Ahhh....But tonight's also a good example of how we're gonna be if we blow up the team, Petey included. 

 

The thing is that, are Huggy, Petey, Demmer still gonna fit the young team profile when we get good enough to be contenders? Would we be rebuilding around said core? I presume much like what was down when the Sedins came into their own.

 

Wow. We've a long way to go. Believe me, I'm not in any way saying that Petey wouldn't play his heart out whenever he's on the ice for us. However his inclusion in the line up, though beneficial, is not gonna prevent management from moving beloved core pieces. Basically Petey or not......we're bound for Bedard!

Don't be whining if you want to Trade Petey and Hughes now. You could be rebuilding for 10 more years if you traded them because the team has no young upcoming elite player after those two. It's better to have those 2 and rebuild around them then to not have them and rebuild around thin air.

 

Also stop dreaming about Bedard because even if we finished last we still would miss on drafting him due to lottery positioning. Bedard is just a dream, not realistic because you need luck to draft him and you know Canucks luck.

 

 

Edited by DefCon1
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On 12/20/2022 at 2:49 AM, shiznak said:

 

I didn’t watch the game, but according to naturalstattrick the game was in our favour to win. We had more shots, scoring chances, and high-danger scoring chances than the Blues. If anything, Martin and the PK loss us the game. 

 

I’m not opposed to moving Pettersson, if he brings us a significant haul. He’s the only player (aside from Hughes) who has any REAL value on this team and if you’re going to go into a full tear it down rebuild. He should be a top candidate to be moved. 

 

Horvat - Teams will be hesitant to trade for a rental, as they rarely work. 

Miller - Retirement deal are hard to move. 
Boeser - Value has plummeted considerably since his rookie season.

Garland - Overpriced bottom 6 forward.

Myers - No value.

OEL - Little-to-no value.

Schenn - Little value.

Kuzmenko - There’s some value.

I think you are undervaluing here

Horvat-  3 firsts, 2 already spent, ( one 17-18, one 21-22) and 2023 possible 32 OA

Miller- agree

Boeser - agree, maybe a 3-4 defenseman, (like we need another one of those)

Garland - maybe a second or 3rd and 4th between now and 2025

Myers - second next years tdl

OEL ugh! - agree

Schenn - 2023 first

Kuz - maybe a second

Joshua - third

Bear - second

Pearson - third

Studnika, Burroughs, Stilman, Lazar - forth or fifth each

 

Canucks could retain on 3 players

Edited by lmm
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