Why is Tocchet risking Demko for meaningless wins?

[*Buzzsaw*]

7 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

There is no guarantee that the player taken at 5 or 6 will be any better than the player taken at 10 or 12...

Actually the facts show players drafted in the top 1-5 positions have a much higher chance to have a productive career than those drafted lower.

 

Scouting is not science, but it is a good indicator of a player's potential.

 

This is especially the case for those who are drafted #1.  Go back over the list of #1 picks and you'll find a lot of NHL Superstars and Stars.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first_overall_NHL_draft_picks

 

 

 

 

Edited March 26, 2023 by *Buzzsaw*

[Elias Pettersson]

2 minutes ago, *Buzzsaw* said:

Actually the facts show players drafted in the top 1-5 positions have a much higher chance to have a productive career than those drafted lower.

 

Scouting is not science, but it is a good indicator of a player's potential.

 

This is especially the case for those who are drafted #1.  Go back over the list of #1 picks and you'll find a lot of NHL Superstars and Stars.

Sure, of course that is true. No one is denying that. My point is there is no guarantee that will happen. You are just improving your odds. 
 

Also, you don’t know the Canucks draft board right now. They may be targeting a guy who is currently outside the top 10. Moritz Seider was ranked at 16 when Detroit went off the board and took him at 6. That happens every year. 
 

If you listen to the experts, after the top 4 picks this year there is a drop off. Pick 5 and pick 10 could be interchangeable. We were never going to pick in the top 4. Those teams are really bad. 

[DSVII]

39 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

It seems that management is more concerned about building a winning culture than they are about increasing their odds to get a better player. Instead of fighting that why not just embrace it?  

That remains to be seen until October. Last year, we thought we had that culture too, but will have to take a look to see the difference between the Boudreau bump and the Tocchet Rocket?

 

There's also no guarantee this 'culture', which is being supplemented by a string of tanking opponents and no expectation/pressure to win, can translate to next year. At this point, the draft pick seems more tangible.

 

Dallas chose to start their starting goalie that they are going into playoffs with against Calgary, Edmonton, Seattle and their AHL backup against us. Again, we're in the butter soft part of the schedule, i'm taking any win from this time with a massive grain of salt. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 26, 2023 by DSVII

[Elias Pettersson]

16 minutes ago, DSVII said:

That remains to be seen until October. Last year, we thought we had that culture too, but will have to take a look to see the difference between the Boudreau bump and the Tocchet Rocket?

 

There's also no guarantee this 'culture', which is being supplemented by a string of tanking opponents and no expectation/pressure to win, can translate to next year. At this point, the draft pick  seems more tangible.

 

It's pretty obvious even to the casual observer that Tocchet is getting these guys to play much better hockey in a more structured defensive system.  That has a higher rate of success to be carried over to next season than the Boudreau run and gun system.  Boudreau's system relied heavily on bubble Demko, so when Demko played badly and eventually got hurt, the bubble burst, pun intended.

 

I don't see this team relying soley on Demko right now, although every team needs top goaltending to succeed.  Our shots against have dropped considerably under Tocchet as well as our high danger chances.  Demko doesn't have to flop all over the place like he used to.  Also, how many 2 on 1's, or 3 on 1's do you see lately?  Not many from what I can tell.  Which tells you the system is working, so Demko isn't being held out to dry.

 

There is no guarantee that we continue to play this well next season.  Just the same as there is no guarantee that the #5 pick in the draft ends up being a better player than the #10 pick...

Edited March 26, 2023 by Elias Pettersson

[DSVII]

6 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

It's pretty obvious even to the casual observer that Tocchet is getting these guys to play much better hockey in a more structured defensive system.  That has a higher rate of success to be carried over to next season than the Boudreau run and gun system.  Boudreau's system relied heavily on bubble Demko, so when Demko played badly and eventually got hurt, the bubble burst, pun intended.

 

I don't see this team relying soley on Demko right now, although every team needs top goaltending to succeed.  Our shots against have dropped considerably under Tocchet as well as our high danger chances.  Demko doesn't have to flop all over the place like he used to.  Also, how many 2 on 1's, or 3 on 1's do you see lately?  Not many from what I can tell.  Which tells you the system is working, so Demko isn't being help out to dry.

 

There is no guarantee that we continue to play this well next season.  Just the same as there is no guarantee that the #5 pick in the draft ends up being a better player than the #10 pick...

You're more optimistic than me that the pick will be as low as 10 at this rate  I think history has proven that in the top five, you are over 90% guaranteed to get an NHL player at the top 5 of the draft, and I would argue especially in this year. I take that gamble for potential immediate cost controlled help over anything in this stretch meaning anything to October.

 

Again, I think there's a chance you're right. I gotta see how we are compared to Boudreau in those fancy stats on goaltending and see if the manner of play is sustainable, but it all comes back to my first point. I think they aren't relying on Demko as much because the quality of competition isn't as serious right now and they are playing teams actively trying to lose, this is the bottom 5 softest schedule to end the year on. Need to see how October goes, because i'm not convinced. The context they're playing in right now is competely warped.

 

I hope next year the NHL doesn't screw us over with this scheduling again.

 

All i know is this, if the Canucks were put into that marshmallow test with children (eat 1 marshmallow right away or wait 10 min for two marshmallows), this franchise would lose to the child everytime. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 26, 2023 by DSVII

[*Buzzsaw*]

Let's talk about Demko again.

 

History tells us that teams who rely too heavily on one goaltender during the regular season often have a problem.

 

Either their #1 goalie gets injured and they miss the playoffs or exit early, or their goalie is burned out and doesn't play well.

 

Teams who succeed more often use their #1 more sparingly, give him 45-50 games and let the backup play 30-35.

 

The Canucks should really be focusing on developing a backup for Demko so that he doesn't have to play a large number of games.

 

That means they should be playing Delia and Silovs, even Martin more so they can assess them over a larger game sample and determine if they need to acquire another backup.

 

Everyone talked at the time about how the Luongo/Schneider competition was somehow unhealthy, but in fact it was the best situation the team could possibly have.  The Canucks of that era had two excellent goaltenders, either of whom could start on any given night.

[coho8888]

12 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

It's pretty obvious even to the casual observer that Tocchet is getting these guys to play much better hockey in a more structured defensive system.  That has a higher rate of success to be carried over to next season than the Boudreau run and gun system.  Boudreau's system relied heavily on bubble Demko, so when Demko played badly and eventually got hurt, the bubble burst, pun intended.

 

I don't see this team relying soley on Demko right now, although every team needs top goaltending to succeed.  Our shots against have dropped considerably under Tocchet as well as our high danger chances.  Demko doesn't have to flop all over the place like he used to.  Also, how many 2 on 1's, or 3 on 1's do you see lately?  Not many from what I can tell.  Which tells you the system is working, so Demko isn't being held out to dry.

 

There is no guarantee that we continue to play this well next season.  Just the same as there is no guarantee that the #5 pick in the draft ends up being a better player than the #10 pick...

Also, his assertion that we have played a string of tanking teams is not entirely correct.  The last 15 games, we are 11-4.  10 out of the 15 games were against teams higher in the standings that were either fighting for a wild card spot or at the top of their divisions.

[coho8888]

3 minutes ago, *Buzzsaw* said:

Let's talk about Demko again.

 

History tells us that teams who rely too heavily on one goaltender during the regular season often have a problem.

 

Either their #1 goalie gets injured and they miss the playoffs or exit early, or their goalie is burned out and doesn't play well.

 

Teams who succeed more often use their #1 more sparingly, give him 45-50 games and let the backup play 30-35.

 

The Canucks should really be focusing on developing a backup for Demko so that he doesn't have to play a large number of games.

 

That means they should be playing Delia and Silovs, even Martin more so they can assess them over a larger game sample and determine if they need to acquire another backup.

 

Everyone talked at the time about how the Luongo/Schneider competition was somehow unhealthy, but in fact it was the best situation the team could possibly have.  The Canucks of that era had two excellent goaltenders, either of whom could start on any given night.

We know how Martin and Delia play.  We saw them for most of the season.  Silovs needs to be in Abby for their playoff run and can only be called up on an emergency bases.  Yes I agree that one of the things that mgmt needs to look at is the backup position as both Martin and Delia will be FA's after this season is over.

 

 

[Elias Pettersson]

12 minutes ago, DSVII said:

You're more optimistic than me that the pick will be as low as 10 at this rate  I think history has proven that in the top five, you are over 90% guaranteed to get an NHL player at the top 5 of the draft, and I would argue especially in this year. I take that gamble for potential immediate cost controlled help over anything in this stretch meaning anything to October.

 

Again, I think there's a chance you're right. I gotta see how we are compared to Boudreau in those fancy stats on goaltending and see if the manner of play is sustainable, but it all comes back to my first point. I think they aren't relying on Demko as much because the quality of competition isn't as serious right now and they are playing teams actively trying to lose, this is the bottom 5 softest schedule to end the year on. Need to see how October goes, because i'm not convinced. The context they're playing in right now is competely warped.

 

I hope next year the NHL doesn't screw us over with this scheduling again.

 

All i know is this, if the Canucks were put into that marshmallow test with children (eat 1 marshmallow right away or wait 10 min for two marshmallows), this franchise would lose to the child everytime. 

 

 

 

 

 

The team we just played less than 24 hours ago is a strong playoff team that is expected to challenge for the Stanley Cup.  We beat them in almost every statistical category.  Not sure what else you need to see.  

[DSVII]

13 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

The team we just played less than 24 hours ago is a strong playoff team that is expected to challenge for the Stanley Cup.  We beat them in almost every statistical category.  Not sure what else you need to see.  

Haha basically us doing this in January when we're 1 point behind a divisional rival for a playoff spot and the pressure is on. So yeah, I have an opinion now, it'll take time before I can be proven right or wrong. Happy to eat crow on this. 

 

Over the years on this board (not from you specifically)

 

I've been told you need guys like Beagle/Roussel/Ferland are support guys you need before you draft your stud franchise player.

I've been told you don't have to worry about cap hits because this team is rebuilding.

I've been told that 2nd round pick is inconsequential because Baerschi is an NHL player today

I've been told that the team has to play for pride and that any wins in the late part of the season build to next year only to collapse in October.

 

I'm just tired and I want this team to do things the proper way. 

 

I also recognize that the 'proper' way may not be fitting for the timing of this core if this is a core to believe in. And the fact our amateur scouting team is not as strong as it once was when we got Petey/Hughes.

Edited March 26, 2023 by DSVII

[48MPHSlapShot]

Tocchet is a member of CDC and gets his jollies from reading these butthurt threads and posts. 

[IBatch]

Oh no! Delia got us another meaningless win... yikes.   Broduer, Furh, Roy and Luongo plus plus used to do backs .. what's wrong with this picture? 

[RU SERIOUS]

I think the better question for this post is; Why did JR wait until the season was all but lost to bring Tock-It in?   Now both season is lost AND we're all but out of the Beddard Sweepstakes..................and for what?????????

 

[Nucker 67]

8 minutes ago, RU SERIOUS said:

I think the better question for this post is; Why did JR wait until the season was all but lost to bring Tock-It in?   Now both season is lost AND we're all but out of the Beddard Sweepstakes..................and for what?????????

 

JR/PA realized the Canucks were not going to make the playoffs, especially with Demko out long term. They started planning for next season, traded captain Bo. They brought in Tocchet early to help assess the team and build structure, an identity. Off season should be good, next season is going to rock. 

 

 

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

47 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

JR/PA realized the Canucks were not going to make the playoffs, especially with Demko out long term. They started planning for next season, traded captain Bo. They brought in Tocchet early to help assess the team and build structure, an identity. Off season should be good, next season is going to rock. 

 

 

Yeah, management believes they can build a contending team, or at the very least, a playoff team, around the current core players.

 

With that belief, it makes sense to use these games for assessment purposes, and really get a sense of how this group can perform. That will help them to better understand which players need to be moved and what pieces need to be added.

 

Of course, they did themselves no favours by waiting a year to hire the coaching staff they wanted and get the team playing the way they prefer.

 

Under Bruce, all the obvious flaws were there to see. It’s no sudden revelation that this team needed to rebuild their defence, for example. However, there was a limit to how accurate management could assess the roster while it was playing the game so differently from how they envisioned. They needed to see these players perform under a more structured system, so that they could really focus in on what’s needed, to improve the roster, and support the style of play they want.
 

Especially when it comes to targeting players for acquisition. It’s not just about swapping parts, but the “fit” really needs to be considered, both in terms of player group dynamics and how a player supports and conforms to the system and playstyle. Same goes for identifying which players to trade away or let walk.

 

These games aren’t meaningless, when it comes to assessment purposes. It’s really the first opportunity this management group has had to watch all their core guys playing healthy together, and under the type of coach and systems they want. 
 

It’s just unfortunate they couldn’t get here a bit sooner. 
 

And also tough given that this team has a pattern of poor starts to the season, failing to make the playoffs, and then going on late season runs during “garbage time.”

 

If the Canucks can build on late season winning, carry it over to the next year, don’t struggle out the gate, and show they’re finally on the upswing, then I think even the most committed “tankers” will appreciate the process that started this year (including all these wins).

 

But if we have another poor start and are basically out of the race by Christmas, these wins are going to look pretty bad. As will the choice to “retool” rather than rebuild. Because if this team can’t change that pattern, it will be proof that they needed a teardown, and all the past years of waiting will just be wasted time. And it will also be proof that every spot of lost draft position will have been a failure.

 

I don’t think that will happen. It’s more of a worst case scenario. I feel optimistic that the Canucks will finally start putting it together next year. Management will make moves between now and next season to further improve the roster (as well as address the cap situation). And the team’s leaders will take it upon themselves to pull this group up. As long as Petey, Quinn, and Demmer (and Kuzy, Miller, etc) are healthy next year, I don’t see them allowing this team to continue to fail. But those first weeks of next season are going to be important. This team needs to have a good start to the 2023-24 season.

Edited March 27, 2023 by SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME
Typos

[spook007]

2 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

Yeah, management believes they can build a contending team, or at the very least, a playoff team, around the current core players.

 

With that belief, it makes sense to use these games for assessment purposes, and really get a sense of how this group can perform. That will help them to better understand which players need to be moved and what pieces need to be added.

 

Of course, they did themselves no favours by waiting a year to hire the coaching staff they wanted and get the team playing the way they prefer.

 

Under Bruce, all the obvious flaws were there to see. It’s no sudden revelation that this team needed to rebuild their defence, for example. However, there was a limit to how accurate management could assess the roster while it was playing the game so differently from how they envisioned. They needed to see these players perform under a more structured system, so that they could really focus in on what’s needed, to improve the roster, and support the style of play they want.
 

Especially when it comes to targeting players for acquisition. It’s not just about swapping parts, but the “fit” really needs to be considered, both in terms of player group dynamics and how a player supports and confirms to the system and playstyle. Same goes for identifying which players to trade away or let walk.

 

These games aren’t meaningless, when it comes to assessment purposes. It’s really the first opportunity this management group has had to watch all their core guys playing healthy together, and under the type of coach and systems the want. 
 

It’s just unfortunate they couldn’t get here a bit sooner. 
 

And also tough given that this team has a pattern of poor starts to the season, failing to make the playoffs, and then going on late season runs during “garbage time.”

 

If the Canucks can build on late season winning, carry it over to the next year, don’t struggle out the gate, and show they’re finally on the upswing, then I think even the most committed “tankers” will appreciate the process that started this year (including all these wins).

 

But if we have another poor start and are basically out of the race by Christmas, these wins are going to look pretty bad. As will the choice to “retool” rather than rebuild. Because if this team can’t change that pattern, it will be proof that they needed a teardown, and all the past years of waiting will just be wasted time. And it will also be proof that every spot of lost draft position will have been a failure.

 

I don’t think that will happen. It’s more of a worst case scenario. I feel optimistic that the Canucks will finally start putting it together next year. Management will make moves between now and next season to further improve the roster (as well as address the cap situation). And the team’s leaders will take it upon themselves to pull this group up. As long as Petey, Quinn, and Demmer (and Kuzy, Miller, etc) are healthy next year, I don’t see them allowing this team to continue to fail. But those first weeks of next season are going to be important. This team needs to have a good start to the 2023-24 season.

+10 Sid. Bang on. 

[justathought]

I agree that we should give Demko a much lighter load. Simply for the fact that if he gets injured, we're screwed. That's a fact, we've all witnessed it. Until we have someone that can legitimately back him up we should allow potentials to demonstrate their abilities. We have players that can step in for any other position excluding D. I don't mind the young guys looking lost out there for a while And cutting back Hughes and Hroneks’ minutes more. If we want to hit the road running next year I think it’s a solid plan. Yes, we all want to win. The veterans should be fully on board with getting a leg up on next year.

Edited March 27, 2023 by justathought

[Rocket-68]

Or this --> 

 

 

However, players play to win, fans pay to watch their team win. 

[Dr. Crossbar]

Me personally ... I don't think these games are meaningless for Demko at all. If anything, he probably feels guilty for not being in top form earlier and having meaningless losses during a time early in the season when it should have been meaningful. 

 

He's not only proving something to himself, making good on what he can control, and showing his teammates, new coach, management and fans that he's back in top form! That's incredibly meaningful to a lot of people, including Demko.

 

Good f****** thing we didn't trade him ... FFS!

[cripplereh]

To me if Demko is healthy and says he is ready and wants to play YOY play him.

 

Why would you risk making him unhappy?    

 

 

New players seem to be gelling and moving forward winning games keep them happy and shows us the fans that maybe this time moving forward the team will be better.