Elias Pettersson projected to be the runner up for the Selke Trophy

[DownUndaCanuck]

28 minutes ago, Bob.Loblaw said:

 

 

By far the worst takes I've seen today.  I'll take you all on.

 

We have an award for top scorer - the Art Ross trophy.  The best two-way forward in the NHL history is Patrice Bergeron, period.  More impressive is that he hasn't lost a step, still making major contributions both offensively and defensively.  When the league's best defensive forward can story 25 goals and 60 points per season, what more can you ask for? 

 

There isn't a single defensive metric where Bergeron falls behind others.  Playing less minutes is usage rate.  Irrelevant.  He's scored enough points, so offense is irrelevant, especially for an award dedicated to DEFENSE.  The metrics that count (DEF, XDEF, RAPM ga), he is #1 in everything.

 

No argument that he's not good defensively. The argument is that he doesn't score enough anymore to be considered a top forward. 58 points in a league which is far more offence-based is nothing. There were something like what, 70+ PPG scorers, so on average two per team, and Bergeron was well below that.

 

When he won the trophy he was hovering around 1st line, top-20 production but now he's literally 100th in the league in scoring.

 

If this award was purely based on the best defensive forward dare I say there were guys in the past who should have won it over Bergeron, but it's not, it's been about a combination of scoring and defending, and it's always leaned towards guys who are scoring around a PPG, and also are solid defensively (or have decent two way stats like giveaway/takeaways, faceoffs, well before advanced stats, whatever the NHL deemed to be important).

 

Even last year when he won it his offence was down but kind of hovering just under a PPG, but this year he's well below, and in a year where scoring is so much higher, it's a big drop.

 

This has never been purely a defensive award, otherwise PPG top line scorers wouldn't have won it over and over again, they would have given it to guys like Pahlsson, Malhotra and Kris Draper for example. Bergeron has to take his place - he's not a top scorer anymore. 

 

[DSVII]

1 hour ago, Bob.Loblaw said:

 

 

By far the worst takes I've seen today.  I'll take you all on.

 

We have an award for top scorer - the Art Ross trophy.  The best two-way forward in the NHL history is Patrice Bergeron, period.  More impressive is that he hasn't lost a step, still making major contributions both offensively and defensively.  When the league's best defensive forward can story 25 goals and 60 points per season, what more can you ask for? 

 

There isn't a single defensive metric where Bergeron falls behind others.  Playing less minutes is usage rate.  Irrelevant.  He's scored enough points, so offense is irrelevant, especially for an award dedicated to DEFENSE.  The metrics that count (DEF, XDEF, RAPM ga), he is #1 in everything.

 

 

Counter point.

 

The Norris is literally an award for defense and not given to the best defending defensemen.  Offense has weighed more heavily usually. By that metric of we talk points. Petey has almost 75% more production than Bergy.

 

It's more about being two way dominant than defending. Very rarely do you see Norris nominees who aren't double digit in goals and a healthly ppg production.  Even if we count even strength production Petey has produced 50% more EV points than Bergeron last season. (68pts vs 43pts)

 

And personally I don't agree with it. I'd love to see Pelech or Slavin type player win a Norris too.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 29, 2023 by DSVII

[Elias Pettersson]

39 minutes ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

No argument that he's not good defensively. The argument is that he doesn't score enough anymore to be considered a top forward. 58 points in a league which is far more offence-based is nothing. There were something like what, 70+ PPG scorers, so on average two per team, and Bergeron was well below that.

 

When he won the trophy he was hovering around 1st line, top-20 production but now he's literally 100th in the league in scoring.

 

If this award was purely based on the best defensive forward dare I say there were guys in the past who should have won it over Bergeron, but it's not, it's been about a combination of scoring and defending, and it's always leaned towards guys who are scoring around a PPG, and also are solid defensively (or have decent two way stats like giveaway/takeaways, faceoffs, well before advanced stats, whatever the NHL deemed to be important).

 

Even last year when he won it his offence was down but kind of hovering just under a PPG, but this year he's well below, and in a year where scoring is so much higher, it's a big drop.

 

This has never been purely a defensive award, otherwise PPG top line scorers wouldn't have won it over and over again, they would have given it to guys like Pahlsson, Malhotra and Kris Draper for example. Bergeron has to take his place - he's not a top scorer anymore. 

 

Kris Draper won the award in 2004. John Madden won it in 2001 with 38 points. Jere Lehtinen win it multiple times. Guy Carbonneau several times.  Mike Peca won it twice. Dave Poulon, Steve Kasper. 
 

The Selke Trophy did start out as the best defensive forward award. It was basically the Bob Gainey award back in the day. The award only started in 1978. If it had started earlier, Gainey would have won it 8-9 times. He was the best defensive forward for over a decade. 
 

Things changed when Doug Gilmour and Sergei Fedorov won the award. Then Steve Yzerman. All of a sudden you had to be a top scorer to win it as well. Doug Gilmour had 127 points when he won the award back in 1993. That’s when everything changed. 
 

The Norris trophy is the same way. Guys like Rod Langway used to win it back in the day. Now a guy like him who strictly plays defence could never win it. 

[Miss Korea Bob.Loblaw]

24 minutes ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

No argument that he's not good defensively. The argument is that he doesn't score enough anymore to be considered a top forward. 58 points in a league which is far more offence-based is nothing. There were something like what, 70+ PPG scorers, so on average two per team, and Bergeron was well below that.

 

When he won the trophy he was hovering around 1st line, top-20 production but now he's literally 100th in the league in scoring.

 

If this award was purely based on the best defensive forward dare I say there were guys in the past who should have won it over Bergeron, but it's not, it's been about a combination of scoring and defending, and it's always leaned towards guys who are scoring around a PPG, and also are solid defensively (or have decent two way stats like giveaway/takeaways, faceoffs, well before advanced stats, whatever the NHL deemed to be important).

 

Even last year when he won it his offence was down but kind of hovering just under a PPG, but this year he's well below, and in a year where scoring is so much higher, it's a big drop.

 

This has never been purely a defensive award, otherwise PPG top line scorers wouldn't have won it over and over again, they would have given it to guys like Pahlsson, Malhotra and Kris Draper for example. Bergeron has to take his place - he's not a top scorer anymore. 

 

There are a handful of points you're making here.  You're saying that he is less productive on offense, which disqualifies him from being a top forward.  

 

The Bruins were such a prolific team in the regular season that their first line (Marchand-Bergeron-DeBrusk) was built to dominate possession and tire out the opponents while the second line (Zacha-Krejci-Pastrnak) mopped things up.  Compared to last year, the first line scored less because Boston deliberately built their team up that way.  By putting the league's best RW on the second line, it allowed Pastrnak to face easier opponents and score 61 goals this year.  And they ended up being literally the greatest regular season team in history.  In 5v5 situations, there isn't a team more likely to score on you than Bergeron's line.

 

Yes, the league has become a 5v5 shootout that rewards offense more than ever.  And yet even now Bergeron does not let top lines score against him, and instead he drives offensive play.  He is 1st in GF%, 3rd in xGF%, 3rd in SCF%, 3rd in xGAR, 3rd in HDCF%, 1st in HDGF%... the list goes on and on, but the ones I've mentioned imply that in in 5v5 situations, there is no better player to put on the ice than Patrice Bergeron.  Even prolific two-way forwards like Tkachuk and Pettersson are not as effective as Bergeron because although they generate more scoring chances, they give up more as well.  I repeat: there is no line in the NHL more likely to score on you in 5v5 than a line that has Bergeron on it.

 

So by every single statistic available, Bergeron is the best two-way forward in the NHL, bar none.  Offensively, he is still in the 95th percentile of offensive productivity in 5v5 situations.  His possession metrics are insane.  We are still watching a 38-year old player in his prime being the best in the league, and it doesn't even come close.

[Boudrias]

5 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Petey after he finishes 2nd in the Selke Trophy voting only to Patrice Bergeron, arguably the greatest two way forward in NHL history...

 

 

Bob Gainey has more Cups.  

[Miss Korea Bob.Loblaw]

35 minutes ago, DSVII said:

Counter point.

 

The Norris is literally an award for defense and not given to the best defending defensemen.  Offense has weighed more heavily usually. By that metric of we talk points. Petey has almost 75% more production than Bergy.

 

It's more about being two way dominant than defending. Very rarely do you see Norris nominees who aren't double digit in goals and a healthly ppg production.  Even if we count even strength production Petey has produced 50% more EV points than Bergeron last season. (68pts vs 43pts)

 

And personally I don't agree with it. I'd love to see Pelech or Slavin type player win a Norris too.

If you're trying to use pure scoring productivity as a core metric for who's more deserving of the Selke, than Connor McDavid is the man.  That argument doesn't make sense for obvious reasons, but let's do a direct comparison between Pettersson and Bergeron.

 

xG% (likelihood of unblocked shots to become goals): Bergeron [69.19%] v. Pettersson [50.11%]

xGF% (ratio of outscoring opponents for/against): Bergeron [63.21%] v. Pettersson [53.69%]

SCF% (ratio of scoring chances for/against): Bergeron [62.72%] v. Pettersson [50.44%]

HDCF% (ratio of high-danger scoring chances for/against): Bergeron [63.76%] v. Pettersson [50.57%]

HDGF% (ratio of converting high-danger chances for/against): Bergeron [74.36%] v. Pettersson [57.75%]

 

All of this is saying that when these two players are on the ice... Bergeron is more likely to generate scoring chances and convert them while preventing his opponent from doing the same.  Do you want me to also include FO%?

 

We really need to get rid of the idea that when a player doesn't score goals, he didn't have a good game, and vice versa.  But even if you did try to use that simplistic perspective, remember that Boston was an incredibly top-heavy team going into this season, with major concerns about talent.  They decided to bump their best offensive player down (Pastrnak) and bring someone else up (DeBrusk).  Both of them had career years, and the Bruins literally broke the record books to become the best regular season team of all time.  Bergeron deserves credit for leading that first line.

[Attila Umbrus]

1 hour ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Kris Draper won the award in 2004. John Madden won it in 2001 with 38 points. Jere Lehtinen win it multiple times. Guy Carbonneau several times.  Mike Peca won it twice. Dave Poulon, Steve Kasper. 
 

The Selke Trophy did start out as the best defensive forward award. It was basically the Bob Gainey award back in the day. The award only started in 1978. If it had started earlier, Gainey would have won it 8-9 times. He was the best defensive forward for over a decade. 
 

Things changed when Doug Gilmour and Sergei Fedorov won the award. Then Steve Yzerman. All of a sudden you had to be a top scorer to win it as well. Doug Gilmour had 127 points when he won the award back in 1993. That’s when everything changed. 
 

The Norris trophy is the same way. Guys like Rod Langway used to win it back in the day. Now a guy like him who strictly plays defence could never win it. 

Lehtinen and Madden were awesome. Those teams don't win those stanley cups without them. I was so excited when we drafted Maddens son..but that's another story lol...

 

I love that about this award more than the rest, I think these are the guys you win stanley cups with. Not every cup winning team has a McDavid or Crosby. They win by committee/team effort. 

 

I look at how driven Petey and Hughes are and both are very capable of winning the Selke and Norris one day. Heck maybe even in the same year! I do think if Petey was stronger at faceoffs he would really make some noise this year. But he is improving in that department. To be fair to him, this was his first year ever where HE ran his own line, took his own faceoffs and was matched against the big boys on on teams...and he thrived this season. Pretty exciting to even think about what he can build on over the off season. 

 

Selke could be his as early as next year if he can average 50 % FO's and continue to be mr Everything for this team. 

[Westcoasting]

I have no idea what the advanced status say about everything but after watching the playoffs so far that Nico Hischier is absolutely amazing defensively, anybody notice him playing?

[Rick Blight]

I found this perspective on the Frank Selke award quite interesting. It is based on 13 seasons ending in 2021 I believe.

 

Rule 1: Be a Center

• 13/13 Selke Winners are centers.

• 36/39 Selke Finalists are centers.

Rule 2: Score at least 50 points

• 13/13 Selke Winners scored at least 50 points.

• 37/39 Selke Finalists scored at least 50 points.

Rule 3: Take a lot of faceoffs. Win a lot of faceoffs.

• 13/13 Selke Winners have at least 53.0% faceoff percentage.

• 33/39 Selke Finalists have at least 53.0% faceoff percentage.

Rule 4: Spend a lot of time killing penalties

• 12/13 Selke Winners average at least 1:30 per game on the PK.

• 33/39 Selke Finalists average at least 1:30 per game on the PK.

Rule 5: Have strong possession numbers

• 13/13 Selke Winners have had a Corsi above 53%.

• 30/39 Selke Finalists have had a Corsi above 53%.

Rule 6: Be on a Top 10 defensive team (in GAA)

• 12/13 Selke Winners have been on a Top 10 defensive team.

• 30/39 Selke Finalists have been on a Top 10 defensive team

[-AJ-]

He's outstanding defensively, though I'm not sure I'd have him above Hischier and Marner. He needs both better face-off numbers and PK numbers. Still deserving of some real attention though.

[AnthonyG]

7 hours ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

Slap in the face if Bergeron wins it again, he had 58 points. The award has to be a top scorer, not some 3rd line center. He's won it so many times before because he's been a top scorer in the league but under 60pts is good for a bottom-6 forward in today's NHL. Time to move on.

Its a reputation award for sure. There are players who have had better defensive stats in recent years that didnt win AND produced.

 

Mark Stone being one of them.

2 seasons with over 120TKA under 60GVA 60+

points, less than 80 goal against and doesnt win the selke.

[-AJ-]

8 minutes ago, AnthonyG said:

Its a reputation award for sure. There are players who have had better defensive stats in recent years that didnt win AND produced.

 

Mark Stone being one of them.

2 seasons with over 120TKA under 60GVA 60+

points, less than 80 goal against and doesnt win the selke.

Bergeron has definitely earned the award for many years and he's a legitimate top contender again this year. That said, I would agree that reputation plays too large a role in the Selke. Need more folks looking at the actual results instead of just picking the guy who wins every year.

[AnthonyG]

8 minutes ago, -AJ- said:

Bergeron has definitely earned the award for many years and he's a legitimate top contender again this year. That said, I would agree that reputation plays too large a role in the Selke. Need more folks looking at the actual results instead of just picking the guy who wins every year.

Its also an award that is heavily influenced by team success too. Heres what I mean by that.

The harder the overall team is to play against, the more that 1 shutdown player sticks in your mind of being extremely hard to play against. 
If Bergeron was on say ARZ…. Would he ever win a Selke? Probably never. There is only so much 1 guy can do against a better team, when he has less help slowing the opponents offence. Same as the Norris. They really should have 2 awards for D. The Norris and the Lidstrom. I mean hell they could even do 3. Best offensive (Orr), best defensive(Lidstrom) and best overall dman (keep that as the Norris). Bring more of an analytical approach to the defensive dman award, offensive dman will speak for itself and the best overall dman could be voted on by the players

[Toews]

3 hours ago, Bob.Loblaw said:

If you're trying to use pure scoring productivity as a core metric for who's more deserving of the Selke, than Connor McDavid is the man.  That argument doesn't make sense for obvious reasons, but let's do a direct comparison between Pettersson and Bergeron.

I disagree I think the argument actually makes logical sense. I actually think they need to change the criteria of the award, two-way means we have to take offense into the equation and McDavid's offense this year imho is more impactful that the defensive impact of any player that will eventually win the award. I think the award criteria needs to be changed to most impactful forward defensively, that means we no longer have to consider offense which is what the award should be.

[AnthonyG]

6 minutes ago, Toews said:

I disagree I think the argument actually makes logical sense. I actually think they need to change the criteria of the award, two-way means we have to take offense into the equation and McDavid's offense this year imho is more impactful that the defensive impact of any player that will eventually win the award. I think the award criteria needs to be changed to most impactful forward defensively, that means we no longer have to consider offense which is what the award should be.

At the same time though, almost 50% of McDavids points are on the PP. He doesnt even have the most points 5v5. Mackinnon does then Pastrnak. McDavid has 7 more points at ES than Pettersson. Its quite remarkable what Petey accomplished this year and also had the most SH goals and points (tied with Miller in both categories) so really how much does PP points get weighed in those types of votes? Sure he’s absolutely insanely dangerous on the PP… but that also comes with having an advantage

[Toews]

1 minute ago, AnthonyG said:

At the same time though, almost 50% of McDavids points are on the PP. He doesnt even have the most points 5v5. Mackinnon does then Pastrnak. McDavid has 7 more points at ES than Pettersson. Its quite remarkable what Petey accomplished this year and also had the most SH goals and points (tied with Miller in both categories) so really how much does PP points get weighed in those types of votes? Sure he’s absolutely insanely dangerous on the PP… but that also comes with having an advantage

Absolutely true but PP goals also count towards one half of "two-way" and since they don't mean any less than 5v5 goals, they are just as impactful on the scoreboard. I just don't think the criteria for the Selke makes any sense and it needs to be changed to make it distinguishable from the Hart trophy, which already goes to best forward in the league.

[AnthonyG]

10 minutes ago, Toews said:

Absolutely true but PP goals also count towards one half of "two-way" and since they don't mean any less than 5v5 goals, they are just as impactful on the scoreboard. I just don't think the criteria for the Selke makes any sense and it needs to be changed to make it distinguishable from the Hart trophy, which already goes to best forward in the league.

Personally I feel PP should be taken out of consideration as its an advantage. PK and 5v5 come with zero advantages and that to me stands out way more. Totally agree that a goals a goal no matter how its scored, but the Rocket tracks overall goals and thats where those calculations should stay. Anyone whos putting up the most ES+SH points should be considered for the Selke, along with defensive contributions like TKA, goals against that help set the winner a part

[Miss Korea Bob.Loblaw]

53 minutes ago, Toews said:

I disagree I think the argument actually makes logical sense. I actually think they need to change the criteria of the award, two-way means we have to take offense into the equation and McDavid's offense this year imho is more impactful that the defensive impact of any player that will eventually win the award. I think the award criteria needs to be changed to most impactful forward defensively, that means we no longer have to consider offense which is what the award should be.

I think the rest of my post shows exactly why Bergeron is the most effective two-way forward in the league.  It's the right mixture of scoring and not getting scored on.  It's about being able to convert defense into offense.  And contrary to handful of folks here who believe Bergeron is a reputation vote and not offensively productive, every statistic points toward Bergeron being #1.  Nobody can do it better than him - not even McDavid.

[Toews]

2 minutes ago, Bob.Loblaw said:

I think the rest of my post shows exactly why Bergeron is the most effective two-way forward in the league.  It's the right mixture of scoring and not getting scored on.  It's about being able to convert defense into offense.  And contrary to handful of folks here who believe Bergeron is a reputation vote and not offensively productive, every statistic points toward Bergeron being #1.  Nobody can do it better than him - not even McDavid.

I don't dispute that. I agree with you that Bergeron is a deserving winner. I just think the criteria for the award needs to be more clearly defined than it is now. 'Two-way' implies that offense is part of the equation and it doesn't specify that we should disregard PP goals. McDavid had 95 points more than Bergeron this year, that is a staggering number. There is just no way that Bergeron can make up for the difference in productivity by his impact defensively and hence I believe the award criteria needs to be defined more clearly so that less people are confused about what the award actually means like they are in most discussions when the Selke comes up. 

[Miss Korea Bob.Loblaw]

3 minutes ago, Toews said:

I don't dispute that. I agree with you that Bergeron is a deserving winner. I just think the criteria for the award needs to be more clearly defined than it is now. 'Two-way' implies that offense is part of the equation and it doesn't specify that we should disregard PP goals. McDavid had 95 points more than Bergeron this year, that is a staggering number. There is just no way that Bergeron can make up for the difference in productivity by his impact defensively and hence I believe the award criteria needs to be defined more clearly so that less people are confused about what the award actually means like they are in most discussions when the Selke comes up. 

The Selke criteria doesn't specify much except that the player "demonstrates the most skill in the defensive component of the game".  I think powerplay production is very specifically not a defensive element of the game.

 

He's already bagged the Rocket, Art Ross, and is most definitely going to take home the Hart and Ted Lindsay.   Do you really want McDavid to win a fifth award?