[Signing] Maple Leafs re-sign Auston Matthews

[rekker]

12 minutes ago, KirkSave said:

Reaves will keep other teams honest when it comes to taking liberties with all their stars

Reeves will either be sitting in the press box post season, or doing his pylon impression. Bertuzzi I like. Domi can disappear for great lengths of time and is prone to dumb penalties. Meh. 

[Miss Korea Bob.Loblaw]

3 hours ago, KirkSave said:

I actually think on paper, the Leafs are looking solid. Loads of top tier talent. Then Tree brings in some sandpaper, waspish type players in Domi, Bertuzzi. Reaves will keep other teams honest when it comes to taking liberties with all their stars. Imagine Reaves going after Myers after his hit on Tavares last spring!! They also added Klingberg, who is a good all around defender. The glaring weakness to me is their lack of depth and experience in the pipes. Just like the Oilers, if they had a legit 1 goalie, they would be a much more difficult out in the playoffs. 

All-around good defender...?

 

 

This man is a pure attacker.  He is rack up 40+ points with that high-octane offense and end up with a brutal +/-.  I'm really not sure where you got the impression he's a good defender.

 

As for Reaves?  He is a fourth liner.  Why on earth would he on the ice with Tavares (and his linemate Marner)??

 

And as for goaltending... I'm not sure what more you want out of Samsonov.  His regular season numbers were excellent.  He just needs to get hot in playoffs and the Leafs will absolutely go on a run.

[IBatch]

22 minutes ago, Bob.Loblaw said:

All-around good defender...?

 

 

This man is a pure attacker.  He is rack up 40+ points with that high-octane offense and end up with a brutal +/-.  I'm really not sure where you got the impression he's a good defender.

 

As for Reaves?  He is a fourth liner.  Why on earth would he on the ice with Tavares (and his linemate Marner)??

 

And as for goaltending... I'm not sure what more you want out of Samsonov.  His regular season numbers were excellent.  He just needs to get hot in playoffs and the Leafs will absolutely go on a run.

Reaves intangibles matter, especially when the stakes are high and it's pretty easy to just run a guy and knock him out of a series.    That's his purpose.  Klingberg used to be a lot better ... does he have anything left in the tank?  Hard to know for sure.   At least they have a RHD power play quarter back option, which isn't bad depth.    Domi and Bertuzzi ... good additions. 

[Miss Korea Bob.Loblaw]

5 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Reaves intangibles matter, especially when the stakes are high and it's pretty easy to just run a guy and knock him out of a series.    That's his purpose.  Klingberg used to be a lot better ... does he have anything left in the tank?  Hard to know for sure.   At least they have a RHD power play quarter back option, which isn't bad depth.    Domi and Bertuzzi ... good additions. 

Klingberg is a weird once since they already have two playmakers on the PP (Marner and Rielly).  The Leafs have always had a solid blueline with a mixture of strong defenders and aggressive attackers.  Now it's very aggressive and I'm not sure how well that'll translate in the postseason.  It feels like the team's shortcomings were addressed in a weird way.

 

It's hard to accurately predict what kind of impact Reaves will have in the postseason.  When he isn't going for bone-crushing hits, his on-ice impact is extremely poor.  The concern with him is that... he's gonna get suspended.  Leafs fans know how much of a headache it is to deal with suspensions - happens to them every postseason.  It's a question of how he can impact the team playing 7 minutes a game, and whether they really lose much should he go down.

 

He's a good locker room guy, though.  

 

[Elias Pettersson]

11 hours ago, Bob.Loblaw said:

Suggesting J.T. Miller is a better player defensively and at setting up players is an extremely homerist view.  I have no problems with Miller and his contract.  He's an excellent playmaker and a real maestro on the powerplay.  But when it comes to defending and PK, the burden of proof is overwhelmingly against you.  Really against you.

 

 

It's on you to explain why these numbers suggest Miller is a poor defender, and why his playdriving metrics are much worse than Matthews.  Team/teammates are no excuse - he's never been that good defensively - which is okay with me.  That's not his job.

 

 

Again - I have no problems with people saying Matthews is overpaid.  He definitely is, especially given his poor playoff record.  But he is also a generational offensive talent who is pretty much the best in the league in many aspects.  Money aside, Miller doesn't even compare.  Their roles are completely different.  

I love the WAR cards that you bring out and they are helpful, but they don't tell the whole story.  If they did, you wouldn't need scouts.  Trust me, I was evaluating players in the NHL before we even had the internet.

 

Matthews doesn't play on the PK, Miller does.  Miller has a better faceoff % than Matthews, those are the facts.  Miller has way more assists than Matthews, that is also factual.  The eye test tells me that Miller is a better setup man than Matthews.  

 

Of course, Matthews is the overall better player, we are comparing Matthews to our 2C who gets paid $8 million.  We have a 1C in Petey, who is better than Matthews.  Yes, he is.  And the numbers last year prove it.  Matthews is declining and Petey is ascending.  Can't wait for the season to start so we can all see Petey blow away Matthews in almost every category this year and cement his place as a top 5-6 player in the NL...

Edited August 27, 2023 by Elias Pettersson

[KirkSave]

2 hours ago, Bob.Loblaw said:

And as for goaltending... I'm not sure what more you want out of Samsonov.  His regular season numbers were excellent.  He just needs to get hot in playoffs and the Leafs will absolutely go on a run.

Samsonov doesn't possess the mental fortitude. That market destroys players confidence if they don't deliver and even when they do. Too much pressure.

 

IMO, if Carolina stays healthy, they are the deepest team and should represent the East in the finals. The core 4 in TO have only won 1 rnd together and that was against a TB squad last year that had been to the cup final 3 years in a row (fatigued) plus they lost Hedman & Cernak to injury. Good news for the leafs is that every team in their div is weaker. I expect them to win their division this season and as usual bow out in the 1st or 2nd round. If they were to be able to acquire Helleybuck, I think that would launch them past teams like NJ, Pit and NYR. Seeing Karlson go to Pit makes me believe any trade is possible.

 

As for Reaves, he infuses more swagger to the group and they know they can run around and be a thorn in the opposition's side (Bertuzzi, Domi, Lafferty, McCabe) cause big brother is ready to rock n' roll. Hockey is more than just WAR and analysis. It's about culture, winning attitude and playing as a unit.

 

Klingberg was on an awful ANA team last year. He was the top pairing guy on a joke of a team, going all out for a shot at drafting Bedard. Being on Toronto's 2nd pair, against less talented opponents, playing on a vastly better team, he will be very good for them. Watch some Leaf games this year, He is well positioned, anticipates the play, solid skater and good first pass. When needed he can also play with some jam.

 

Toronto will be the best Canadian team this year in the regular season.

[Miss Korea Bob.Loblaw]

5 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

I love the WAR cards that you bring out and they are helpful, but they don't tell the whole story.  If they did, you wouldn't need scouts.  Trust me, I was evaluating players in the NHL before we even had the internet.

 

Matthews doesn't play on the PK, Miller does.  Miller has a better faceoff % than Matthews, those are the facts.  Miller has way more assists than Matthews, that is also factual.  The eye test tells me that Miller is a better setup man than Matthews.  

 

Of course, Matthews is the overall better player, we are comparing Matthews to our 2C who gets paid $8 million.  We have a 1C in Petey, who is better than Matthews.  Yes, he is.  And the numbers last year prove it.  Matthews is declining and Petey is ascending.  Can't wait for the season to start so we can all see Petey blow away Matthews in almost every category this year and cement his place as a top 5-6 player in the NL...

This really makes me think you've only watched Matthews in the playoffs.  It's a transformation that drives Leafs fans insane.  Goes from being a generational talent to a grinding shutdown player who's afraid to touch the puck longer than 1 second.

 

It's a shame I don't have access to a lot of hockeyviz's heat charts, like the one I put at the bottom of the Klingberg response below.  The problem with J.T. Miller isn't his ability to take faceoffs.  He's excellent at it.  He's just not very good at any other aspect of playing centre at even strength.  Unfortunately these graphs compare Miller's brutal 2023 against Matthew's Hart-winning 2022, so full disclaimer:

 

 

For direct and accurate comparisons, I will have to use Natural Stat Trick, which is uglier but still paints a clear contrast.

 

Comparing Matthews' Hart year in 21-22 to Miller's wild 21-22 year, you are going to see vastly higher differentials skewed in Matthews' favour.  All the way.  Significantly higher xG% (63.91>51.03), significantly higher HDCF% (62.96>48.04), and even a higher FO% (56.2>54.1).  Both of them had down years in 22-23, but still Matthews leads Miller significantly in xG% (57.50>46.49), HDCF% (57.32>46.17); Miller does have a better FO% this past year (55.0>52.4).

 

As for teammates, Matthews' even-strength contributions are undeniably amazing.  This year, Michael Bunting has a 58.35 xGF% and 55.8 SCF% with Matthews, but only 49.21 xGF% and 49.08 SCF% without Matthews.  Marner's slashes are 58.70 xGF% and 59.9 SCF% with Matthews, then 50.78 xGF% and 55.21 SCF% without him.  In other words, players generally play much better offensively and defensively playing with Matthews, creating scoring chances while also suppressing opponents.

 

Miller does not have that same net effect on his primary linemates in 5v5.  Garland has a 48.85 xGF% and 52.19 SCF% with Miller, then a 48.78 xGF% and 48.72 SCF% without.  Boeser similarly has a 43.46 xGF% and 48.52 SCF% with Miller, then a 44.16 xGF% and 43.84 SCF% without.  What I see here are two things.  Firstly, Garland seems criminally underrated (again), showing he can play good hockey with or without good linemates.  Secondly, Miller isn't making teammates play better, if at all.  He's not a big playdriver offensively or defensively, and the numbers speak for themselves.  ***Yes, the stats do show that Pettersson makes his linemates a lot better, just like Matthews.  If you want, I'll pull them up for you.***

 

Strictly for Miller, it's time to end this silly argument that he's a good PKer.  Quinn Hughes has a higher CF% (15.31) and FF% (17.07) without Miller than with him (9.80 CF%, 10.59 FF%).  Pettersson is the same story: 15.93 CF% and 19.59 FF% without Miller, but 11.28 CF% and 13.59 FF% with him.  Their defensive metrics drop when Miller is out on the ice with them.  Even brutal defenders like Myers and Ekman-Larsson have better numbers playing without Miller than with him on PK.  

 

Like you, I've also watched enough Canucks to sorta tell who's good and who's not just by using the eye test.  Although I think Miller is a fantastic player on the PP, I have been unimpressed with his 5v5 play, and at times frustrated with his penalty killing.  The difference between your view and mine is that I have hard numbers to back it up.  Miller and Matthews are fundamentally different players in terms of scale and style.  They don't even come close.

3 hours ago, KirkSave said:

Samsonov doesn't possess the mental fortitude. That market destroys players confidence if they don't deliver and even when they do. Too much pressure.

 

IMO, if Carolina stays healthy, they are the deepest team and should represent the East in the finals. The core 4 in TO have only won 1 rnd together and that was against a TB squad last year that had been to the cup final 3 years in a row (fatigued) plus they lost Hedman & Cernak to injury. Good news for the leafs is that every team in their div is weaker. I expect them to win their division this season and as usual bow out in the 1st or 2nd round. If they were to be able to acquire Helleybuck, I think that would launch them past teams like NJ, Pit and NYR. Seeing Karlson go to Pit makes me believe any trade is possible.

 

As for Reaves, he infuses more swagger to the group and they know they can run around and be a thorn in the opposition's side (Bertuzzi, Domi, Lafferty, McCabe) cause big brother is ready to rock n' roll. Hockey is more than just WAR and analysis. It's about culture, winning attitude and playing as a unit.

 

Klingberg was on an awful ANA team last year. He was the top pairing guy on a joke of a team, going all out for a shot at drafting Bedard. Being on Toronto's 2nd pair, against less talented opponents, playing on a vastly better team, he will be very good for them. Watch some Leaf games this year, He is well positioned, anticipates the play, solid skater and good first pass. When needed he can also play with some jam.

 

Toronto will be the best Canadian team this year in the regular season.

Where did you get this impression that Klingberg is a strong defender?  He is quite possibly the worst defender in the NHL.  But everyone knows that, and he comes as advertised: a right-handed version of Morgan Rielly who should absolutely bag 50 or more points playing with such lethal offensive threats.  Everyone seems to know that... except you?

 

It has nothing to do with Anaheim.  Even with Dallas, Klingberg couldn't seem to play a speck of defence, despite being paired with very solid partners like Lindell and Suter.  Defending isn't his job.  And when it does become his job, he is god-awful at it.

 

 

There is a reason Dallas let Klingberg go.  He was a really frustrating player for Dallas fans to watch.  He is extremely passive exiting his own zone with the puck, and it leads to very dangerous plays for his teammates (especially his D partner) Look at some of these plays from 2021.

 

Set against a 1-2-2 forecheck from Florida, Klingberg beats the first man around the net but doubles back, instead passing out to his partner (Sekera).  Sekera, along with the forwards (who have already left the zone), aren't ready for this adjustment and eventually gives up possession.  You'd think a smooth puck-mover would opt to move the puck himself (the way Quinn Hughes always does) instead of deferring away.

 

This is from 2019, when Heiskanen was still a rookie.  Unwilling to make the play himself, he again defers to his partner, who is forced to make a clever play up the ice.

 

On defence, he seems to be even more passive.  This is a 3v4 rush, where Klingberg could clearly step up and make the more aggressive play without sacrificing an odd-man rush.

 

Here again, Klingberg allows Florida to enter the zone uncontested, guiding the play toward the boards for someone else (in this instance, Robertson) to finish a hit and regain possession.

 

Part of this is of course due to Rick Bowness's passive system which favours these types of defensive plays/breakdowns, but it does reinforce Klingberg as an extremely passive defender who will always defer the play, forcing his teammates to pick up the slack.  It means lost possession and less time in the attacking zone, where a high-octane offensive team like Toronto should be spending all game long.  

 

https://jhanhky.substack.com/p/living-dangerously-with-john-klingberg

 

Blaming this on Anaheim's poor defensive system is an extremely lazy way of dismissing Klingberg's individual shortcomings.  One need only look at this chart to realize Klingberg makes his team worse defensively:

 

Edited August 28, 2023 by Bob.Loblaw

[KirkSave]

24 minutes ago, Bob.Loblaw said:

This really makes me think you've only watched Matthews in the playoffs.  It's a transformation that drives Leafs fans insane.  Goes from being a generational talent to a grinding shutdown player who's afraid to touch the puck longer than 1 second.

 

It's a shame I don't have access to a lot of hockeyviz's heat charts, like the one I put at the bottom of the Klingberg response below.  The problem with J.T. Miller isn't his ability to take faceoffs.  He's excellent at it.  He's just not very good at any other aspect of playing centre at even strength.  Unfortunately these graphs compare Miller's brutal 2023 against Matthew's Hart-winning 2022, so full disclaimer:

 

 

For direct and accurate comparisons, I will have to use Natural Stat Trick, which is uglier but still paints a clear contrast.

 

Comparing Matthews' Hart year in 21-22 to Miller's wild 21-22 year, you are going to see vastly higher differentials skewed in Matthews' favour.  All the way.  Significantly higher xG% (63.91>51.03), significantly higher HDCF% (62.96>48.04), and even a higher FO% (56.2>54.1).  Both of them had down years in 22-23, but still Matthews leads Miller significantly in xG% (57.50>46.49), HDCF% (57.32>46.17); Miller does have a better FO% this past year (55.0>52.4).

 

As for teammates, Matthews' even-strength contributions are undeniably amazing.  This year, Michael Bunting has a 58.35 xGF% and 55.8 SCF% with Matthews, but only 49.21 xGF% and 49.08 SCF% without Matthews.  Marner's slashes are 58.70 xGF% and 59.9 SCF% with Matthews, then 50.78 xGF% and 55.21 SCF% without him.  In other words, players generally play much better offensively and defensively playing with Matthews, creating scoring chances while also suppressing opponents.

 

Miller does not have that same net effect on his primary linemates in 5v5.  Garland has a 48.85 xGF% and 52.19 SCF% with Miller, then a 48.78 xGF% and 48.72 SCF% without.  Boeser similarly has a 43.46 xGF% and 48.52 SCF% with Miller, then a 44.16 xGF% and 43.84 SCF% without.  What I see here are two things.  Firstly, Garland seems criminally underrated (again), showing he can play good hockey with or without good linemates.  Secondly, Miller isn't making teammates play better, if at all.  He's not a big playdriver offensively or defensively, and the numbers speak for themselves.  ***Yes, the stats do show that Pettersson makes his linemates a lot better, just like Matthews.  If you want, I'll pull them up for you.***

 

Strictly for Miller, it's time to end this silly argument that he's a good PKer.  Quinn Hughes has a higher CF% (15.31) and FF% (17.07) without Miller than with him (9.80 CF%, 10.59 FF%).  Pettersson is the same story: 15.93 CF% and 19.59 FF% without Miller, but 11.28 CF% and 13.59 FF% with him.  Their defensive metrics drop when Miller is out on the ice with them.  Even brutal defenders like Myers and Ekman-Larsson have better numbers playing without Miller than with him on PK.  

 

Like you, I've also watched enough Canucks to sorta tell who's good and who's not just by using the eye test.  Although I think Miller is a fantastic player on the PP, I have been unimpressed with his 5v5 play, and at times frustrated with his penalty killing.  The difference between your view and mine is that I have hard numbers to back it up.  Miller and Matthews are fundamentally different players in terms of scale and style.  They don't even come close.

Where did you get this impression that Klingberg is a strong defender?  He is quite possibly the worst defender in the NHL.  But everyone knows that, and he comes as advertised: a right-handed version of Morgan Rielly who should absolutely bag 50 or more points playing with such lethal offensive threats.  Everyone seems to know that... except you?

 

It has nothing to do with Anaheim.  Even with Dallas, Klingberg couldn't seem to play a speck of defence, despite being paired with very solid partners like Lindell and Suter.  Defending isn't his job.  And when it does become his job, he is god-awful at it.

 

 

There is a reason Dallas let Klingberg go.  He was a really frustrating player for Dallas fans to watch.  He is extremely passive exiting his own zone with the puck, and it leads to very dangerous plays for his teammates (especially his D partner) Look at some of these plays from 2021.

 

Set against a 1-2-2 forecheck from Florida, Klingberg beats the first man around the net but doubles back, instead passing out to his partner (Sekera).  Sekera, along with the forwards (who have already left the zone), aren't ready for this adjustment and eventually gives up possession.  You'd think a smooth puck-mover would opt to move the puck himself (the way Quinn Hughes always does) instead of deferring away.

 

This is from 2019, when Heiskanen was still a rookie.  Unwilling to make the play himself, he again defers to his partner, who is forced to make a clever play up the ice.

 

On defence, he seems to be even more passive.  This is a 3v4 rush, where Klingberg could clearly step up and make the more aggressive play without sacrificing an odd-man rush.

 

Here again, Klingberg allows Florida to enter the zone uncontested, guiding the play toward the boards for someone else (in this instance, Robertson) to finish a hit and regain possession.

 

Part of this is of course due to Rick Bowness's passive system which favours these types of defensive plays/breakdowns, but it does reinforce Klingberg as an extremely passive defender who will always defer the play, forcing his teammates to pick up the slack.  It means lost possession and less time in the attacking zone, where a high-octane offensive team like Toronto should be spending all game long.  

 

https://jhanhky.substack.com/p/living-dangerously-with-john-klingberg

 

Blaming this on Anaheim's poor defensive system is an extremely lazy way of dismissing Klingberg's individual shortcomings.  One need only look at this chart to realize Klingberg makes his team worse defensively:

 

Agree to disagree. Klingberg is the Swedish Doughty. Leafs will win the cup. You heard it here first. Now it's time to reveal my identity.

 

 

[Miss Korea Bob.Loblaw]

9 minutes ago, KirkSave said:

Agree to disagree. Klingberg is the Swedish Doughty. Leafs will win the cup. You heard it here first. Now it's time to reveal my identity.

 

 

You've got nothing to say.  Even Dangle knows what Toronto got in Klingberg.  What a complete waste of time you were.

[Ghostsof1915]

 

Edited August 28, 2023 by Ghostsof1915

[KirkSave]

17 minutes ago, Bob.Loblaw said:

You've got nothing to say.  Even Dangle knows what Toronto got in Klingberg.  What a complete waste of time you were.

B-bag

O-cho

B-eers

 

And cheers to your summer. Go for a walk. Enjoy some fresh air.

 

[MaxVerstappen33]

On 8/26/2023 at 7:46 AM, Gurn said:

Like the Miller deal

signed a deal, making him the  team highest cap hit player,  while having a 99 point season, and regressed to 82 points.

Oh yes what a massive drop off. 99 points to PPG. What a bum. Should have given him 5.5 million

[Gurn]

43 minutes ago, MaxVerstappen33 said:

Oh yes what a massive drop off. 99 points to PPG. What a bum. Should have given him 5.5 million

I'd have traded him, so he wouldn't even be on the  Canucks payroll, at all.

But the point here, is that context matters; one can not say 'only last season counts' in one thread; then say 'don't worry about the reduction in points, in an other thread.

[Alflives]

1 hour ago, Gurn said:

I'd have traded him, so he wouldn't even be on the  Canucks payroll, at all.

But the point here, is that context matters; one can not say 'only last season counts' in one thread; then say 'don't worry about the reduction in points, in an other thread.

Traded Miller!