[Signing] Maple Leafs re-sign Auston Matthews

[HKSR]

4 hours ago, Bob.Loblaw said:

I think you are overlooking one of Matthews' most underrated aspects of his game.  Kucherov is an all-offensive behemoth, not unlike Artemi Panarin.  Defending isn't important - their job is to attack, attack, attack.  Which is totally fine - Kucherov at $9.5M is a massive bargain and the reason why Tampa is such a strong team.  Auston Matthews (in the regular season) is a much more complete player who can not only drive the offense through passing and shooting, but also a very solid, physical defensive presence.  His two-way play was so strong in 21-22, that he deservedly received a handful of Selke votes (he did also get some this year, but I think those were less deserved).

 

I'll say it again - there is no single player deadlier in 5v5 situations than Auston Matthews.  In even strength situations he has outscored everyone (including Kucherov and McDavid) by a very wide margin.  True, his scoring dropped off a bit this year, but his offensive metrics haven't at all.  To that end, I have absolutely no doubt that he will live up to his contract... in the regular season at least.  As I discussed in that previous post, the lack of postseason success has been a serious concern which we can only speculate on why it hasn't worked out.

 

P.S.: Matthews vastly outplayed Kucherov in this year's series.  Game 4 was massive highlight for Matthews in particular - he carried the Leafs on his back and stole the game from Tampa.  In the rest of the games, he didn't take penalties and made very solid defensive plays.  Granted, being smart defensively doesn't earn you $13M, but it does highlight the underrated aspects of his game.

 

Edit: I will say that the contract is justified within the microcosm of assessing his individual value.  In the context of a wider team that's already tight against the cap and must pay Marner an equal amount (plus Nylander).... there are some serious cap problems.

Sorry, couple major flaws here.  

 

Unless I'm a Leafs fan, I wouldn't be impressed one bit with what Matthews was able to do against a Tampa team that was basically missing their top defensive pairing (Hedman AND Cernak).

 

And really?  We are gonna compare Kucherov at 30yo with Matthews 5 years younger?  I sure hope he's playing better than Kucherov now.  Mind you, Kucherov signed his extension at 11.95% of the Cap Limit after putting up 128 points in 82 games.  One of the best regular season performances in the modern era.

 

Bottomline here is that until Matthews really proves he is among the elite during the playoffs, everybody has a right to laugh at this awkward deal.

[The Arrogant Worms]

Report: Matthews' extension with Maple Leafs to be paid almost entirely in signing bonuses

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/report-matthews-extension-with-maple-leafs-to-be-paid-almost-entirely-in-signing-bonuses/

[DeNiro]

Just look at how TSN phrases this signing. 
 

Apparently Matthews is “ending Mackinnon’s run” as highest paid player. As if that’s some sort of victory for the Leafs. 
 

They’re so desperate for any sort of victory.

[Elias Pettersson]

5 hours ago, Bob.Loblaw said:

Not a single one?  There was one guy who went from 109 points to 65 points in two seasons...

 

 

Nobody can predict the future.  But Matthews, despite having a down season, was literally 100th percentile in several offensive metrics.  His projections for next year look fantastic.  For posterity, here's what Matthew's cards looked like last year compared to this year:

 

 

Interpret however you want.  Haters might see this and think metrics fail to capture drop-offs in production.  I think it shows the potential performance of players regardless of whether they score or not.

Oh Bob, you really fell into my trap didn’t you?  

 

I knew you would bring up Ovechkin cause he’s the only guy with a similar regression that I can remember. But bringing up Ovechkin actually proves my point. Ovechkin had 4 100+ point seasons and peaked at age 25. After that he’s never hit 90 points again until age 36. He also peaked with his scoring at quite an early age. He peaked at 23 years old with 65 goals and never hit 60 again. Sounds familiar?

 

Matthews, like Ovechkin, has already peaked. I doubt he ever scored 60 goals and 100 points ever again. That’s gonna be pretty horrible for a guy who’s the highest paid player in NHL history.
 

So unless you think Auston Matthews will be like Ovechkin, scoring 50 goals into his 30’s, whoever signs him to that 8 year deal at age 31 is going to wanna find the nearest bridge. 

[Ghostsof1915]

Edmonton and Toronto are proof that being top heavy on your forwards is not a formula for playoff success. I'd say McD at least has gotten his team to the Conference Finals.

But I'm not sure either team is deep enough to get to the Stanley Cup. When the pressure is on. They don't seem to get it done. Sakic understood that MacK can't get it done on his own. So he build a great team around him. Losing Landeskog is going to really impact the Av's. But Colorado knows this is a team game. Depth is really important.

That's why they have a Cup and Toronto and Edmonton don't.

[RWJC]

Kypreos (FWIW) is saying that AM only wanted a 3 year deal and TO was countering with 5 years. 

[Miss Korea Bob.Loblaw]

1 hour ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Oh Bob, you really fell into my trap didn’t you?  

 

I knew you would bring up Ovechkin cause he’s the only guy with a similar regression that I can remember. But bringing up Ovechkin actually proves my point. Ovechkin had 4 100+ point seasons and peaked at age 25. After that he’s never hit 90 points again until age 36. He also peaked with his scoring at quite an early age. He peaked at 23 years old with 65 goals and never hit 60 again. Sounds familiar?

 

Matthews, like Ovechkin, has already peaked. I doubt he ever scored 60 goals and 100 points ever again. That’s gonna be pretty horrible for a guy who’s the highest paid player in NHL history.
 

So unless you think Auston Matthews will be like Ovechkin, scoring 50 goals into his 30’s, whoever signs him to that 8 year deal at age 31 is going to wanna find the nearest bridge. 

 

You are such a dirty player...

 

I do think Matthews will be able to score massive amounts of goals as he gets older.  He is truly a generational talent who has outscored his contemporaries 5v5 by a large margin.  You cannot diminish the significance of that.  

 

There are other players who did drop off in production during their mid-20s before ramping it up again as they got older.  Steven Stamkos dropped below PPG in 2016, Patrick Kane dropped well below PPG in 2012, Giroux in 2017, Iginla dropped well below PPG at age 25, Thornton below PPG at age 24, Martin St. Louis... tons of guys.  Even Jaromír Jágr had down years statistically!  But there's a difference between drops in stat production versus drops in performance.  When Matthews starts dropping in performance (during the regular season of course), that's when Leafs fans should get really nervous.

[rekker]

2 hours ago, DeNiro said:

Just look at how TSN phrases this signing. 
 

Apparently Matthews is “ending Mackinnon’s run” as highest paid player. As if that’s some sort of victory for the Leafs. 
 

They’re so desperate for any sort of victory.

Oh my. I've heard "the short term is good for flexibility for both sides" Also,  "The 13.5 is less of a percentage of cap than AM's last deal" Good grief, it never ends. Always a good signing in Leafs land. It's embarrassing for the media really. 

[Ghostsof1915]

1 hour ago, RWJC said:

Kypreos (FWIW) is saying that AM only wanted a 3 year deal and TO was countering with 5 years. 

Kyp said that?

Is he gradually recovering from concussions?

[Ghostsof1915]

10 minutes ago, rekker said:

Oh my. I've heard "the short term is good for flexibility for both sides" Also,  "The 13.5 is less of a percentage of cap than AM's last deal" Good grief, it never ends. Always a good signing in Leafs land. It's embarrassing for the media really. 

 

[RWJC]

12 minutes ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

Kyp said that?

Is he gradually recovering from concussions?

He did, and not one ounce of drool either 

[stawns]

13 minutes ago, RWJC said:

He did, and not one ounce of drool either 

[RWJC]

7 minutes ago, stawns said:

Who knew getting put to bed like that would somehow open a portal to an alternate universe whereby Kypreos at his leisure can tap, translate and so generously share a far superior and omnipotent NHL hockey insight and insider authority. 
 

im gonna go smash my head with a brick and see if it works for me too!

 

[DownUndaCanuck]

Right now they're 2.9M over the cap with LTIR being used so something has to give. Don't see anyone they can move to make this work. They're already such a top-heavy team and go out and acquire a bunch of solid secondary and tertiary players (Bertuzzi, Domi, Klingberg, Reeves) but they've gotten too greedy and now someone has to go. Surely there's a Nylander trade in the works for a decent player going back in the 3-4M range.

 

The following year though, 41M will be tied up between Matthews, Tavares, Marner and Reilly. That's just about half the cap. Insane when you compare it to teams like Seattle.

[rekker]

4 minutes ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

Matthews, Tavares, Marner and Reilly. That's just about half the cap. Insane when you compare it to teams like Seattle.

Especially considering Rielly is a one dimensional Dman, Tavares is slow as heck and fading, Marner is afraid to get hit, AM has yet to show he has what it takes to play the right way to win in the post season

 

[KoreanHockeyFan]

17 minutes ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

Right now they're 2.9M over the cap with LTIR being used so something has to give. Don't see anyone they can move to make this work. They're already such a top-heavy team and go out and acquire a bunch of solid secondary and tertiary players (Bertuzzi, Domi, Klingberg, Reeves) but they've gotten too greedy and now someone has to go. Surely there's a Nylander trade in the works for a decent player going back in the 3-4M range.

 

The following year though, 41M will be tied up between Matthews, Tavares, Marner and Reilly. That's just about half the cap. Insane when you compare it to teams like Seattle.

This is why I believe the Devils are best-positioned in the league cap-wise. Honourable mentioned to the Sabres. 

 

Both teams have made it a habit to lock in their young players realllllyyyy early. It's a risky move, but the long-term payoff is immense. 

 

The Leafs are screwed. This top-heavy approach is never going to work. 

[Bobby James]

Yeah it is a big aav for sure, but while I don't love the deal I don't hate it either. 

 

Toronto is kinda setting themselves up for a 5 year window here to really go for it. They have their best player locked up and as long as the cap goes up (we've all heard that before lol) they should be fine in terms of managing it (sacrifices always have to be made). Nylander will likely go short term too maybe around 9-10 million? 

 

At least when all is said and done they will have had Matthews through his prime and had more then enough cracks at the cup. Not the best outcome, but could have been worse. 

[Elias Pettersson]

Biz needs some help...

 

 

[Citizen Erased]

3 hours ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

Kyp said that?

Is he gradually recovering from concussions?

 

[KirkSave]

Hot Take:

 

By the time Matthews new deal winds down, he will be as bald as a bowling ball.

 

 

AND STILL NO CUPS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited August 25, 2023 by KirkSave