Playoffs, could it happen?

[TheGuardian_]

19 hours ago, BCNate said:

and one or  two of Stone Karlsson, Duschene, Panarin, Skinner, Myers, Hayes, Ferland, Dzinkle, Nelson and this roster looks much different that past years.

EA Games?

17 hours ago, Chris12345 said:

Really hard to predict where they land but they could end up in 25th very easily. I don't think they are really that improved I think a lot of teams are bad.

You sir are on planet Earth, reality.

19 hours ago, BCNate said:

Young guys have earned some spots, and the plugs are starting to be moved out.

What young guys, what plugs?

19 hours ago, BCNate said:

Where do you think this team finishes?  Things would have to go awfully bad from here forward to pick top 5, or we get crazy lucky in the lottery.  We are more likely going to be in the 10-15 range, or in the playoffs.  I'd much rather make the playoffs and pick 16th than miss and pick 10th.

Top 5 pick requires only a 6 point drop in the standings. One more injury or Markstrom getting burned out.

Benning has already told you late 1rst round picks are not likely to make the NHL contrary to the evidence but we can assume he means, for him (or his job) he is shooting for the playoffs but he does say he will not trade away the future (late 1rst round is okay?) UNLESS it is a player for player deal. Jake's name has come up the last week.

As far as top 5, better a chance than no chance at all this team cannot compete relying only on 3 young forwards.

On ‎2‎/‎8‎/‎2019 at 8:16 PM, EdgarM said:

So here is the "TANKER" mentality rearing its ugly head again. NEWSFLASH! There is more then one way to acquire players in the NHL, especially in a Cap Era. We have the beginnings of a pretty good team despite not stooping to lows that you are alluding to. Only losers "give up" and stop trying before the season is even over. 

Acquire players? Benning signs players, why is the team still so bad?

Stooping to lows, meaning Benning etal tanking? So being the worst team over the last four years was because the team is just plain bad? You see management can take the sting out of losing by "doing what is best for the franchise", "seeing what is in the system", "showcasing assets for trades", "salary dumps",  all legitimate functions of team management and necessary in planning for the future. When should this be performed? In the heat of a playoff race? At the start of the season when trying to bond? With a roulette wheel, Ouija board or dice? Or perhaps when the odds are so stacked against the team that a playoff berth is highly unlikely? If near the end of the season management's decision to one of these things actually takes the burden and stress to win off the players backs, they are no longer losing because the team is bad, they are losing because management is "planning for the future".

 

A question, what happens next year? Over 85% of the team is playing now. Hughes is probable, OJ will need more time in the minors for rehab, Edler, Tanev will be older and slower, Sven will be gone (concussions), the other seven 30+ year old players in decline, hard to say regarding Markstrom if he has another personal best season, Demko's rookie season.

 

If some posters can project this group as a playoff team in 3 months why not for next season?  

 

The team's position in the standings has Markstrom to thank, he has been lights out and again vs Calgary. At the very least he has stolen 8 games this year.

 

[JM_]

11 minutes ago, TheGuardian_ said:

 

Top 5 pick requires only a 6 point drop in the standings. One more injury or Markstrom getting burned out.

Benning has already told you late 1rst round picks are not likely to make the NHL contrary to the evidence but we can assume he means, for him (or his job) he is shooting for the playoffs but he does say he will not trade away the future (late 1rst round is okay?) UNLESS it is a player for player deal. Jake's name has come up the last week.

 

late 1st rounders do have a chance of making it, but it does drop off sharply near the end of the 1st round tho, and maybe the most important part is what do they make it to the NHL as? the chance of becoming a top 6 F e.g., drops off sharply as well. Boeser beat the odds. Benning is correct, the percentages favour not selling off a guy like Tanev for a late 1st, and trading Jake for that would be idiotic. 

 

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-value-1.786131

 

 

[TheGuardian_]

3 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

late 1st rounders do have a chance of making it, but it does drop off sharply near the end of the 1st round tho, and maybe the most important part is what do they make it to the NHL as? the chance of becoming a top 6 F e.g., drops off sharply as well. Boeser beat the odds. Benning is correct, the percentages favour not selling off a guy like Tanev for a late 1st, and trading Jake for that would be idiotic. 

 

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-value-1.786131

 

 

So Gillis didn't do such a bad job after all and Benning should have 6 sure things. Just kidding, the actual numbers are more late firsts make the NHL than 2nd, 3rd or 4th rounders. But yes there is a drop off and hence why so many teams tank after the TDL and bad teams pick up wins easier, usually the next best time of year, good start, poor middle and good end. A good start sells tickets for that season and a good finish helps sell for next season.

I agree about Jake, but I think they have his role branded into their minds and will not change, so to them moving Jake for a different 3rd line banger is an equal player for player deal.

As far as trading Tanev or Edler both have a declining shelf life, when this team will be very strong they will be marginal most likely. 

[EdgarM]

On ‎2‎/‎9‎/‎2019 at 12:41 AM, wai_lai416 said:

Lol so what ways do you suggest to acquire top 6 talent? Trades? We don’t have any assets to trade for a top 6 or top 4 defenseman. Free agents? So over pair a player to come here? How have they worked out with the last 3 years? We are on pace for 82 points. This team is literally nothing without pettersson 3 cores top 6 and filling it with a bunch of plugs ain’t going to carry you look at  Edmonton. Look at most of the top teams majority of their players are drafted not thru trades or free agent. Stop being delusional a team that’s going to be hovering around 40 lost have no reason to be in the playoff to embarrass themselves it’s good they are playing competitive hockey but it’s terrible to squeeze in with 80 points and think we are ready to compete 

WE ARE IN A CAP ERA! Players cost money no matter where they come from(Draft,FA,Trades) and some teams are......get this...….at the top of their Cap and have players they cannot retain because they cannot pay them. How about this, some players just want to move on(E.Kane,Karlsson,Tavares) and can do what ever they feel like. Like you said, "the majority of players" are drafted, not all of them. So where do the rest come from?

If we didn't go through that stretch where many key players were out with injuries at the same time, we would be much higher in the standings then we are today.

I don't believe this team has ever been "embarrassed" at any point this season, including the time they were decimated with injuries so what are you talking about being "delusional"?

The reason for making the playoffs isn't entirely on winning the Cup, we are rebuilding and these guys need to learn how to win in the playoffs and they cannot LEARN that unless they know what its going to be like. 

Oh, and speaking of Edmonton, how did all of their #1 draft picks work out for them?

[wai_lai416]

6 hours ago, EdgarM said:

WE ARE IN A CAP ERA! Players cost money no matter where they come from(Draft,FA,Trades) and some teams are......get this...….at the top of their Cap and have players they cannot retain because they cannot pay them. How about this, some players just want to move on(E.Kane,Karlsson,Tavares) and can do what ever they feel like. Like you said, "the majority of players" are drafted, not all of them. So where do the rest come from?

If we didn't go through that stretch where many key players were out with injuries at the same time, we would be much higher in the standings then we are today.

I don't believe this team has ever been "embarrassed" at any point this season, including the time they were decimated with injuries so what are you talking about being "delusional"?

The reason for making the playoffs isn't entirely on winning the Cup, we are rebuilding and these guys need to learn how to win in the playoffs and they cannot LEARN that unless they know what its going to be like. 

Oh, and speaking of Edmonton, how did all of their #1 draft picks work out for them?

we have not been embarassed coz we have played hard great.. this team's defense is probably among the worse in the league. Markstrom is playing well above his potential which is awesome. History also shows that when we over play Markstrom he will melt down as shown previously when Nilsson was hurt the past couple years.. and the team will unlikely play dipetro.. this team is all reliant on Pettersson to do something and he's schooling the league.. but the lack of top 6 caliber player on this team will catch up sooner or later. the only 3 legit top 6 we have is Pettersson Boeser and Horvat. Baertshi god knows if he'll ever recover, Virtanen is a great 3rd line checker that can chip in once in a while. Goldobin can't even stay in the lineup.. so where are you going to fill THREE top 6 players from? drafting in the bottom half of the 1st round and hope every player is jackpot like a boeser? 

 

Karlsson, Kane, Tavares lol. Tavares pretty much had his sight set on Toronto, Karlsson and Kane were both traded and Kane re-signed with the team and Karlsson likely would do so.. how many legit top 6 or top 2 defensemen legitimately hit the free agent market? Tavares? this year Mark Stone might be the only one we have a legitimate shot at.. but if Ottawa trades him.. the team that trades for him will likely try to sign him.. and we don't have any assets available to trade for it. i don't see how making the playoff and get blown out in the first round by whomever is good for the team. Edmonton made the playoff too with McDavid and got blown out of the playoff what good did that do them? you are laughing at edmonton yet our team are almost identical.. 3 great player.. surrounded by 9 bottom 6 forwards.. terrible defense.. and questionable goaltending at times.. as reflected by the standing we are almost identical.. only difference is our player work their asses off, edmonton not necessary and we also take it slow with our players unlike edmonton rushing and ruining their prospect

[EdgarM]

2 hours ago, wai_lai416 said:

we have not been embarassed coz we have played hard great.. this team's defense is probably among the worse in the league. Markstrom is playing well above his potential which is awesome. History also shows that when we over play Markstrom he will melt down as shown previously when Nilsson was hurt the past couple years.. and the team will unlikely play dipetro.. this team is all reliant on Pettersson to do something and he's schooling the league.. but the lack of top 6 caliber player on this team will catch up sooner or later. the only 3 legit top 6 we have is Pettersson Boeser and Horvat. Baertshi god knows if he'll ever recover, Virtanen is a great 3rd line checker that can chip in once in a while. Goldobin can't even stay in the lineup.. so where are you going to fill THREE top 6 players from? drafting in the bottom half of the 1st round and hope every player is jackpot like a boeser? 

 

Karlsson, Kane, Tavares lol. Tavares pretty much had his sight set on Toronto, Karlsson and Kane were both traded and Kane re-signed with the team and Karlsson likely would do so.. how many legit top 6 or top 2 defensemen legitimately hit the free agent market? Tavares? this year Mark Stone might be the only one we have a legitimate shot at.. but if Ottawa trades him.. the team that trades for him will likely try to sign him.. and we don't have any assets available to trade for it. i don't see how making the playoff and get blown out in the first round by whomever is good for the team. Edmonton made the playoff too with McDavid and got blown out of the playoff what good did that do them? you are laughing at edmonton yet our team are almost identical.. 3 great player.. surrounded by 9 bottom 6 forwards.. terrible defense.. and questionable goaltending at times.. as reflected by the standing we are almost identical.. only difference is our player work their asses off, edmonton not necessary and we also take it slow with our players unlike edmonton rushing and ruining their prospect

We are a rebuilding team and most of our core is in some state of learning how to play in the NHL. You are just playing the "Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda" Game in which nobody really knows the answers but counting your team out before it even happens seems like a waste of time.

Please don't even remotely compare us to Edmonton, they should be, by your standards, competing for the Stanley Cup by now but they are below us in the standings and we have NEVER HAD A #1 DRAFT PICK , EVER! They have had 4 in the last 9 years. Not to mention a 3rd a 4th a 7th and a 10th overall to boot. 

The difference? Is as you say" our players work their asses off" is that our players have character who are surrounded by character veterans. A key component especially in the playoffs. But you would know that since it appears you know quite a bit of how to win in Hockey.

Lets just see how Toronto is going to be able to keep those high priced talent and field a full team in the process. Should be interesting.

[wai_lai416]

5 hours ago, EdgarM said:

We are a rebuilding team and most of our core is in some state of learning how to play in the NHL. You are just playing the "Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda" Game in which nobody really knows the answers but counting your team out before it even happens seems like a waste of time.

Please don't even remotely compare us to Edmonton, they should be, by your standards, competing for the Stanley Cup by now but they are below us in the standings and we have NEVER HAD A #1 DRAFT PICK , EVER! They have had 4 in the last 9 years. Not to mention a 3rd a 4th a 7th and a 10th overall to boot. 

The difference? Is as you say" our players work their asses off" is that our players have character who are surrounded by character veterans. A key component especially in the playoffs. But you would know that since it appears you know quite a bit of how to win in Hockey.

Lets just see how Toronto is going to be able to keep those high priced talent and field a full team in the process. Should be interesting.

too bad those key components you are referring to can't score a goal even if their life depends on it. oh hey look at all the past cup winners. their key component can actually play some offense and defense.. and why are you talking about the past with players that's not even on that team anymore? they cleaned house and literally got rid of everything from that past time frame. their current roster and prospect is more similar to what we currently have since our rebuild and them cleaning house. both team top heavy, and full of bottom 6 players with no clear cut prospect ready to step up. both team have terrible looking defense with 1 bright prospect. we have better goaltending prospect so we are ahead in that department. so whats your plan for this team? make the playoff so they can be knocked out. hope you strike gold again with a mid range pick? so if that fails we go the free agent route and toss 10+mil at a karlsson?? or hope that other free agents would love to sign in vancouver for the chance to play with pettersson? and if that doesnt' work then we go throw prospects and picks for players? 

[EdgarM]

4 hours ago, wai_lai416 said:

too bad those key components you are referring to can't score a goal even if their life depends on it. oh hey look at all the past cup winners. their key component can actually play some offense and defense.. and why are you talking about the past with players that's not even on that team anymore? they cleaned house and literally got rid of everything from that past time frame. their current roster and prospect is more similar to what we currently have since our rebuild and them cleaning house. both team top heavy, and full of bottom 6 players with no clear cut prospect ready to step up. both team have terrible looking defense with 1 bright prospect. we have better goaltending prospect so we are ahead in that department. so whats your plan for this team? make the playoff so they can be knocked out. hope you strike gold again with a mid range pick? so if that fails we go the free agent route and toss 10+mil at a karlsson?? or hope that other free agents would love to sign in vancouver for the chance to play with pettersson? and if that doesnt' work then we go throw prospects and picks for players? 

Your comparing us to past Cup winners now? We are rebuilding and are nowhere near a "Cup Winner". 

The past? I am only talking about the Oilers last 9 years or drafting, not exactly the past. In comparison to us, we have picked 9th, 6th, 5th, 5th, and 7th in that time period. Hardly in comparison to Edmonton and their 4-#1's + a 3rd, 4th, 7th etc.

Kind of throws your theory of just getting draft picks ONLY doesn't it?

"so whats your plan for this team?" Not just my plan but what the team is also appearing to do is to "DEVELOPE" this core of players into cup contenders. Evaluating what they have every year and make changes accordingly. If a player comes up through FA, why would you not seize that opportunity? If he is within your cap structure it would be foolish to pass him up because your team just gets players from the draft. Wouldn't it? Obviously if he asking too much then you pass but that is not going to be the case every time.

We already have some really good key components and the time frame for these players life span has already started. Bo is not going to be young forever. So now it becomes a race to assemble something competitive while these guys are in their prime. I said this before, if you are going by draft only, you would need to wait roughly 23 years to draft all of your players and that's if they all pan out. What a silly notion but that's what you are alluding to. 

Its a pretty simple concept, utilize ALL of the AVENUES that are AFFORDED to you and don't just restrict yourself to one of them.

 

[ForsbergTheGreat]

Since Jan 1st. The blues have only lost 4 games in regulation going 12-4–1. I see them as the team that will start to separate from the rest of the wild card pack. 

 

On the flip side. Since Jan 1st. Ducks have only won 2 games in regulation, goibg 2-11-2. 

 

[cleowin]

So today's loss was really not ideal considering the circumstances of STL & the WC race, but that doesnt mean the season is over by any means.

 

Tomorrow's results are really important if Vancouver wishes to stay in the race:

 

Tues, Feb 12:

BOS beats CHI in regulation

FLA beats DAL

NJD beats STL in regulation

PHI beats MIN in regulation

TOR beats COL in regulation

VGK beats ARI in regulation

 

Wed, Feb 13:

PIT beats EDM in regulation

VAN beats ANA in regulation

 

Best Case Scenario Standings:

Wild Card:

WC1: STL - 55 GP / 59 PTS

WC2: MIN - 57 GP / 59 PTS

1: VAN - 58 GP / 59 PTS

2: COL - 56 GP / 55 PTS

3: CHI - 57 GP / 55 PTS

4: ARI - 56 GP / 53 PTS

5: EDM 56 GP / 53 PTS

 

Worst Case Scenario:

Wild Card:

WC1: DAL - 56 GP / 61 PTS

WC2: MIN - 57 GP / 61 PTS

1: COL - 56 GP / 57 PTS

2: CHI - 57 GP / 57 PTS

3: VAN - 58 GP / 57 PTS

4: ARI - 56 GP / 55 PTS

5: EDM - 56 GP / 55 PTS

6: ANA - 57 GP / 53 PTS

 

One Point Scenario:

WC1: STL - 55 GP / 60 PTS

WC2: MIN - 57 GP / 60 PTS

1: VAN - 58 GP / 58 PTS

2: COL - 56 GP / 56 PTS

3: CHI - 57 GP / 56 PTS

4: ARI - 56 GP / 54 PTS

5: EDM - 56 GP / 54 PTS

6: ANA - 57 GP / 53 PTS

[Mackcanuck]

The way I look at it is, We are in a perfect spot

 

We are 2 points out of a wildcard playoff spot 

 

and

 

We are 4 points out of a bottom 5 lottery pick

[Topcheeze86]

How bout stop sitting one of our top playmakers in goldy and stop filling the lines with checkers and maybe our goal production will come back again 

[TheGuardian_]

31 minutes ago, chilliwiggins said:

I expect Chicago to catch them tonight.

If not Chicago some other teams.

Playoff were never just what the Canucks did, the Nucks were competing with 8 teams, a lot of them playing really crappy but better than their record.

 

[Nucker 67]

* 2-5-1 in their last 8 games

* Injuries to key players piling up

* Benning's unwillingness to improve the team at the TDL

 

The answer is NO

[Zigmund.Palffy]

Canucks playoff hopes a slim with injuries every game..

 

but im still hopeful!

[Westcoasting]

1 hour ago, Topcheeze86 said:

How bout stop sitting one of our top playmakers in goldy and stop filling the lines with checkers and maybe our goal production will come back again 

Yep, Goldy is the answer! No but seriously i can see him as someone who's time is expiring with this team.

[RonMexico]

45 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

* 2-5-1 in their last 8 games

* Injuries to key players piling up

* Benning's unwillingness to improve the team at the TDL

 

The answer is NO

I don't want him to improve the team at the TDL. I'd prefer no playoffs for this group at this time. One and done would not be very exciting for me as a fan.

 

[TheGuardian_]

35 minutes ago, chilliwiggins said:

the tough part of the season is just beginning.   playing 500 up until now is fine, its what happens in the last 2 months that counts

Usually it gets really tough until TDL day and teams commit to buying or selling after the sellers might start "seeing what is in the system" or some other excuse for tanking.

Weak teams will start winning more games making them look better than they are and teams fighting for a spot will be playing "hard" games.

 

The Canucks are in a tough position, they have relied on Markstrom for at least 10 steals but he will not last playing every game down the stretch and I can't see management risking Demko for a hopeless cause.

 

The Canucks still need to groom enough young players to be competitive in the NHL as replacements for all the 30+ yr olds, they will not be hyper competitive while this is happening or be a good playoff team until they have more draft picks playing.

 

Hopefully management "sells" of some vets for whatever draft picks they can get, the value of Vancouver veterans declines every month, injury, lost game, contract cost.

 

This trying to remain "competitive" while rebuilding is a red herring, they are just not putting enough youth into regular roster spots or even getting the kids enough ice time in Utica. They need to have their really bad season and market the young kids playing on the team. It will be much easier for fans and players if the focus of the season is more on "development and training". The fans will have more than just Boeser, Horvat, Virtanen and EP to watch even if the team is losing. They will be able to see actual skill in the NHL rather than using their imaginations to project a perfect world where every deal and pick is a home run only to be disappointed if there isn't as much success as "dreamed" up.

 

You never know maybe 6 teams decide to tank or even a playoff team decides playing a one and done is not in the best interest of it's players learning curve and pumping fan expectations for the following season, expectations of improvement every year and the subsequent pressure on management to make it so.

[CupIsComing]

In this new NHL, if goal differential still holds as a decent predictor of a playoff berth the Canucks are destined to a lottery pick.

 

A week ago when they were minus 10 they had a chance to bring that up to evens (which is normally required to qualify for playoffs) within the number of games left. Teams have snuck in with a single-digit negative goal differential, but making the playoffs with a two-digit negative is extremely rare. Now that the Canucks are minus 18 it is almost impossible to close that gap in the remainder of the season (especially given our defense).

 

Goal differential predicts that the Eastern wild cards will be two of either Montreal, Pittsburgh, or Carolina; and that the Western wild cards will be two of either St. Louis, Minnesota, or Colorado.

 

All other teams currently outside of a wildcard do not have the positive goal differential required to make up the difference and thus will miss the playoffs.

 

I think this is a good outcome for Canucks fans...meaningful games foster fan excitement and player development, but we still get a lottery chance at a high pick.

[Boudrias]

11 minutes ago, TheGuardian_ said:

Usually it gets really tough until TDL day and teams commit to buying or selling after the sellers might start "seeing what is in the system" or some other excuse for tanking.

Weak teams will start winning more games making them look better than they are and teams fighting for a spot will be playing "hard" games.

 

The Canucks are in a tough position, they have relied on Markstrom for at least 10 steals but he will not last playing every game down the stretch and I can't see management risking Demko for a hopeless cause.

 

The Canucks still need to groom enough young players to be competitive in the NHL as replacements for all the 30+ yr olds, they will not be hyper competitive while this is happening or be a good playoff team until they have more draft picks playing.

 

Hopefully management "sells" of some vets for whatever draft picks they can get, the value of Vancouver veterans declines every month, injury, lost game, contract cost.

 

This trying to remain "competitive" while rebuilding is a red herring, they are just not putting enough youth into regular roster spots or even getting the kids enough ice time in Utica. They need to have their really bad season and market the young kids playing on the team. It will be much easier for fans and players if the focus of the season is more on "development and training". The fans will have more than just Boeser, Horvat, Virtanen and EP to watch even if the team is losing. They will be able to see actual skill in the NHL rather than using their imaginations to project a perfect world where every deal and pick is a home run only to be disappointed if there isn't as much success as "dreamed" up.

 

You never know maybe 6 teams decide to tank or even a playoff team decides playing a one and done is not in the best interest of it's players learning curve and pumping fan expectations for the following season, expectations of improvement every year and the subsequent pressure on management to make it so.

I am with you on not wanting to make playoffs. 

 

I wanted to trade Tanev 3 years ago but that hope is fading just like his value. Yes, move whatever vets that have some value. 

IMHO the question to ask is whether the new core have advanced far enough to allow a serious pruning of vets. I am not suggesting moving more than 2 - 3 vets. There is no pressure to make moves by the TDL other than returning value. Tanev, Edler and Sutter are injured so by the Draft or next season works as well. I think the young core have made gains this year. EP40, BB, Bo, Virt and Mott have all impressed. On the back end it is all about Hutton and Stecher. Both have become top 4 d-men. Both are still developing. Stecher has really shown up on the PP. 

 

This does not change the depth reality in the org. Another strong draft this summer will go a long way to improving that depth. I do expect this group to make playoffs next year.