[Trade] Lightning trade J.T. Miller to Canucks for Marek Mazanec, 2019 3rd-round pick, 2020 conditional 1st-round pick

[Pete M]

for the record and for comparison...Evander Kane's stats and JT Miller's stats are below.

JT's stats are very similar to Evander's, but JT is more durable and heavier. JT's contract in comparison is golden for the Canucks

[Silver Ghost]

This trade definitely falls in the "wait and see" category for me.

 

A conditional 1st is a high cost and a risk, but its also a reasonable cost and a low risk play if you look at it beyond just the assets and factor in several important pieces of the puzzle.

 

JT Miller is an upgrade for the Canucks top 6 and exactly the type of player it needs. There is no doubt. A gritty, physical player who can play a hard game along the boards and in front of the net who also possesses above average vision and passing, is a good skater, can retrieve pucks, and plays center and wing. Outside of anything else, its easy to see a fit and a hole in the lineup being filled.

 

He has a good cap hit with term, is just entering his prime, and will likely be burning for more opportunity after being pushed down the stacked lineup in Tampa Bay.

 

Mrazek and the 3rd are pretty meh tbh. The conditional 1st is the concern. On the surface, and given the Canucks seemingly endless string of worst case scenarios coming to fruition, its easy to fret that the team will suck and that pick will magically win the lottery. We all know we fear that. If that happens, there is a lot more wrong than this trade though.

 

What many do not factor in is the simple future value scenario. The Canucks need to get better now. They need to surround their young guns with the right pieces. Look at Edmonton as an example of what happens when you rely on drafting exclusively. Miller and the next two years of his play are worth even more when you factor this in. That pick even if its in a worst case scenario and a high pick will not see the NHL for those two seasons so during that window has little actual value to a team on the cusp of moving from bottom feeder to contender like the Canucks are. The only valid argument i have seen is that the pick could have been used to get a top pairing right handed dman. 

 

I hope this is a chain reaction though. The defense needs to be addressed or this team will still struggle. 

 

But overall, we should take a wait and see attitude. It wasnt long ago that Canucks fans were complaining about getting hosed in the Schneider trade, or the Shinkaruk trade, or basically every trade. This deal may be good or bad but we won't know for awhile yet. In the meantime, let's enjoy having an upgrade on the top 6 wing. We needed it. 

 

If a few of Sutter, Eriksson, Tanev, and Schaller with possibly a few others can be moved to help the D or recoup some pics, that will help. 

 

Add in a guy like Panarin (good luck, I know) and a guy or two like Barrie or even Myers/Gardiner, and you have a much higher prospect of a 4 line team with 3 potential scoring lines that can still take care of their own end while providing a more physical, speedy, puck moving style. 

 

Hopefully this is the first move of several. But lets be optimistic. JT Miller doesn't need to be a saviour to be a difference maker. 

 

Edited June 23, 2019 by Silver Ghost

[grandmaster]

1 minute ago, Pete M said:

for the record and for comparison...Evander Kane's stats and JT Miller's stats are below.

JT's stats are very similar to Evander's, but JT is more durable and heavier. JT's contract in comparison is golden for the Canucks

People fail to see the great deal we have on the cap hit on J.T. 

 

It is also so rare to get a player of this caliber in the first round, yet the Canucks don’t need to worry about that development because it’s all been taken care of. 

[jimmyking8888]

  Preds, Jets, Knights and Sharks are lock for playoff spot next.   Ducks and Kings are old and boring.  Coyotes and Oilers usually don't make it.  That leaves 7 teams fighting for 4 spots next year.    I would not be surprised if we miss again next year.   So likely scenario is we are giving up a 1st rounder from 2021.   By then JB probably won't have to worry about it.    

     

       Baertschi    Horvat      J T                                

       Pearson      Pete         Boeser

       Leivo           Sutter       Virtanen    

       Roussel       Gaudatte   Motte               Extra:   Beagle , Spooner  Schaller     

       

        Goldy can sign in Russia  ,  Say good bye to Granlund.     

       

       

       

[Dixon Ward]

27 minutes ago, theo5789 said:

Waiting for a UFA may not net you the player that you want. It may end in a bidding war and end up overpaying for their services.

 

Dzingel is a speedy small-ish winger. Doesn't add the grit and ability to play center that Miller does.

 

Nyqvist is decent, but is older (for those that care about the "timeline") and will likely be looking for a payout contract with term.

 

Lee is also not going to come in at 4 years for 5.25 million. Probably closer to 6-7 for max term. Also 3 years older.

 

Ferland is already rumoured to be looking for Tom Wilson money and has had a couple of concussion problems this past season alone. Hasn't gotten more than 41 points despite getting top 6 minutes.

 

Connolly is a step below and while he may he a relatively decent add, I don't think he is comparable.

 

I get your point, but to get a guy of his calibre at his age and contract. And for the record, I don't think Benning is suggesting the rebuild is over, but I believe the team has been trending exactly how I felt it should be so far where we were fighting for a wild card spot last season and either still in the wild card hunt or just squeaking into a playoff spot this upcoming season. If we miss the playoffs again, no harm no foul and I think we surely make the playoffs at the very least in the following year.

 

I get the concern about the D and there's still a long summer ahead, so we will see if and how that will get addressed. We could easily address the defense issue through UFA but it's the same concern as the forwards in that they likely get overpaid for what they bring and that's if they even choose you to sign with.

 

Dzingel 56 pts/78g/16:49mpg (Career high 56 pts)

 

Nyquist 60 pts/81g/17:30mpg (Career high 60 pts)

 

Lee 51 pts/81g/17:05mpg (Career high 62 pts)

 

Ferland 40pts/71g/14:06mpg (Career high 41pts)

 

JT Miller 47pts/75g/14:40mpg (Career high 58 pts) 

 

Plays a heavier game than Dzingel and Nyquist and scores as much or more.  Scores well beyond Ferland, and about the same as Lee in less minutes.

 

This is a great player and they cost something.  These guys all are going to cost 7 mill plus on 6-7 year deals because Kevin Hayes got that and Miller is better than Kevin Hayes too.

[Dixon Ward]

The only FA forwards I would consider at this point would be great playmakers.  Panarin, maybe Nyquist for the right price, and maybe Zucarello for a short term.

 

Our second line, and our team in general, has more size now, more shooters, but, Petey and Boes are the only two I would term playmakers. 1 more would nicely round out the top 6.

[6string]

                                                

[babalu]

4 hours ago, Hutton Wink said:

Cool, could you then please list the players who are on the market, and who we would have gotten for a third and conditional first?

I was speaking in general terms. None of us know what is out there obviously. I would we will see some top six fowards get moved this off season so we can compare what they end up going for to what JB paid in this trade. Most of the reactions I have seen from hockey writers and fans feel we over paid. I like JT as a player. I just feel it was risky to give up a first in this trade. 

Edited June 23, 2019 by babalu

[Kanukfanatic]

I hope JB is going hard after Colin Miller in Vegas and Zaitsev. Both teams need to shed cap and we have room. This is not JBs strength but we need a couple D men like Miller and Zaitsev.

 

Come on JB!!!

[grandmaster]

1 minute ago, babalu said:

I was speakin in general termw. None of us know what is out there obviously. I would we will see some top six fowards get moved this off season so we can compare what they end up going for to what JB paid in this trade. Most of the reactions I have seen from hockey writers and fans feel we over paid. I like JT as a player. I just feel it was risky to give up a first in this trade. 

This trade involved the Canucks wanting and needing a top 6 player. A player that was not only in line with youth but also a producer and with an excellent cap hit. You are underestimating the return on that first. Also keep in mind that first involves developmental time that can take years away from the need now and also it is not guaranteed to pan out to even be a pro!

 

[KKnight]

1 hour ago, Dixon Ward said:

The only FA forwards I would consider at this point would be great playmakers.  Panarin, maybe Nyquist for the right price, and maybe Zucarello for a short term.

 

Our second line, and our team in general, has more size now, more shooters, but, Petey and Boes are the only two I would term playmakers. 1 more would nicely round out the top 6.

Donskoi would be an under the radar guy. I think he can be a top six player. I really think there is going to be quite a few bargains this offseason. With the cap lowering, It makes a lot of teams hesitant to throw out big contracts. 

Edited June 23, 2019 by KKnight

[Baggins]

30 minutes ago, Losing With Pride said:

I would like our chances better but I still don’t think we are deep enough. Call me ultra conservative but the uncertainty of a lottery pick makes me extremely nervous. 

 

Now if we were an actual cup contender, a trade like this would make a lot more sense. 

 

 

Don't you get deeper by acquiring good players? That first is unlikely to be a lottery pick and more likely to be 3 to 5 years away from stepping on NHL ice. At some point you need to stop playing the waiting game and start adding quality to support your young stars.

[DownUndaCanuck]

I wonder how much Laine would have cost?

 

1st, 2nd round picks, Tanev and a forward (Goldobin/Granlund)? More?

[Silver Ghost]

6 minutes ago, Kanukfanatic said:

I hope JB is going hard after Colin Miller in Vegas and Zaitsev. Both teams need to shed cap and we have room. This is not JBs strength but we need a couple D men like Miller and Zaitsev.

 

Come on JB!!!

Zaitsev is kind of a hard no for me. I just don't think his contract makes sense for where the Canucks are at. Unless the Leafs are adding something too good to pass up. Thats a big assist to them to take Zaitsev's contract. 

[Silver Ghost]

At least we know JB wasnt planning to offersheet any RFA. Including that pick in a deal precludes him from targeting an impact RFA through an offer sheet. 

[babalu]

4 minutes ago, grandmaster said:

This trade involved the Canucks wanting and needing a top 6 player. A player that was not only in line with youth but also a producer and with an excellent cap hit. You are underestimating the return on that first. Also keep in mind that first involves developmental time that can take years away from the need now and also it is not guaranteed to pan out to even be a pro!

 

Yeah I see your point. We are getting a player further along in ddvelopment. However, his number have been a bit underwhelming the last couple seasons. Perhaps due to playing further down the lineup do to the bolts depth. However, the way JB has been drafting he hasn't missed on many first rounders in the last couple years. Would you trade Boeser, Horvat, Pettersson, or Hughes (plus a third rounder) to get JT Miller because that is the caliber of player we are missing out on by giving up our first.

[shiznak]

3 hours ago, Trebreh said:

I did some digging around to look for some more recent comparables on what a top 6 forward would cost to acquire.

 

so i came up with the Kane trade to the Sharks... 

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/sabres-trade-forward-evander-kane-sharks/

 

the Sharks gave up a conditional 1st, conditional 4th in 2020 and a prospect/project in Danny O'Reagan.  

 

Kevin Hayes trade cost the Jets a 1st a conditional 4th and a decent prospect Brendan Lemieux...

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/winnipeg-jets-acquire-kevin-hayes-new-york-rangers/

 

We gave up a 1st in 2021, a 3rd and a throw in Mazanec for arguably the better player of the three on a MUCH better contract and cap hit. 

 

Kane 7m - Hayes 7m - Miller 5.2m

 

JB is going to look like a genius if he clicks with Petey and Brock and puts up 60 points and all his haters will go on hiding. 

 

 

Difference is, those teams who gave up a 1st round pick were legit Cup contenders, while we aren’t even a lock to make the playoffs with Miller on our roster. 

 

I don’t think people are upset that we gave up a 1st round pick, but more so, if we don’t make the playoffs in either of the next two years. That pick will be in the top 10. 

[grandmaster]

2 minutes ago, babalu said:

Yeah I see your point. We are getting a player further along in ddvelopment. However, his number have been a bit underwhelming the last couple seasons. Perhaps due to playing further down the lineup do to the bolts depth. However, the way JB has been drafting he hasn't missed on many first rounders in the last couple years. Would you trade Boeser, Horvat, Pettersson, or Hughes (plus a third rounder) to get JT Miller because that is the caliber of player we are missing out on by giving up our first.

I would like to think that the Canucks are getting better and will not bottom out to get those high level picks. They seem to be getting the right pieces and the young stars should produce even more with another year under their belt. 

 

As long as JB can land a good D man, I think the Canucks should be able to easily make the playoffs and who knows from there. 

[Trebreh]

58 minutes ago, theo5789 said:

The sad part is these so called "fans" would rather Miller fail so they can say they're right in that Benning sucks.

 

Even the Shinkaruk for Granlund trade is pretty definitive at this point, but yet people still complain about because Granlund hasn't become some 30 goal scorer or whatever expectation they have in hopes that he's some incredible steal.

it's really sad, its like the look forward for the Canucks to slip up so they can circle jerk each other and talk about how awful a GM JB is. 

[Silver Ghost]

13 minutes ago, babalu said:

Yeah I see your point. We are getting a player further along in ddvelopment. However, his number have been a bit underwhelming the last couple seasons. Perhaps due to playing further down the lineup do to the bolts depth. However, the way JB has been drafting he hasn't missed on many first rounders in the last couple years. Would you trade Boeser, Horvat, Pettersson, or Hughes (plus a third rounder) to get JT Miller because that is the caliber of player we are missing out on by giving up our first.

Only in a worst case scenario. And there is uncertainty with almost any draft pick. Could be a Nail Yakupov we end up trading with that pick. Who knows?

Edited June 23, 2019 by Silver Ghost