elvis15 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 A couple of Markstrom related threads now, just posting this in all to see which one sticks. Just saw this write up posted too: Hockey Prospectus @HProspectus . @matthewwgr writes that Jacob Markstrom should not be labeled a bust just yet http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/will-vancouver-offer-new-life-for-markstrom/ … Will Vancouver offer new life for Markstrom? What is the nicest way to say a player has been really bad? He has struggled? Had a tough go? Been on a rough ride? Well, whichever way you elect to say it, it is the truth about Jacob Markstrom’s NHL time with the Florida Panthers. Once thought of as a prospect phenom, four years into his pro career the Swedish netminder has fallen well short of expectations. He has a .898 career save percentage in 43 games, which is far below the NHL .914 average. His failure to emerge as the goalie of the future in Florida opened up the door for the Panthers to trade him to Vancouver in exchange for Roberto Loungo. It seems Eddie Lack is the Canucks’ No. 1 man now, but is it too soon to declare Markstrom a failure? Will he gain new life in Vancouver? Based on goalies of the past and his minor league numbers, there may still be a chance for the 24-year-old. In 2012, Hockey Prospectus interviewed Markstrom. It was during the lockout and he was just beginning to shake off a poor start to the season. His spirits were high with expectations he would become the top goalie in Florida as soon as NHL play resumed. The former second-round pick sounded motivated to out-work the competition, saying: “I can’t relax. I want to play. I don’t want to be a backup goalie. I want to be a starter whether I’m in the NHL or I’m here (in San Antonio). So you have to be on your toes because there are always guys chasing you.” When the season finally began, he did receive a chance to be the Panthers’ goalie. He managed only a .901 save percentage in 23 games and won only eight. This season things went even worse – Markstrom posted a .874 save percentage in 12 games and won one game. His play may have cost coach Kevin Dineen his job. It is not hard to see why he was expendable at the deadline. However, the young netminder’s AHL statistics might give you pause. Since the 2011-12 season, he has posted a .922 save percentage. Go back a few years and compare that to some other goalie prospects who have emerged as NHL starters. In 2009-10, Braden Holtby had a .917 save percentage, Cory Schneider .919, Jhonas Enroth .919 and Devan Dubnyk .915. Jonathan Bernier ran away with the league that season at .936. The following year, Vezina Trophy race leader Ben Bishop posted a .914 in the AHL, while current Vancouver starter Eddie Lack had .926 and Edmonton goalie Ben Scrivens .924. These goalies were considered raw at the time – much like Markstrom – and have turned into NHL goalies. Does that mean he can make that .922 save percentage translate into quality NHL numbers as Holby, Schneider, Bishop and Bernier have? That is a difficult question. There have been just as many goalies who knock them dead in the “A” but can not stop a puck in the NHL. Veteran Curtis Stanford had an amazing .930 for the Hamilton Bulldogs in 2010-11, but only scored a .911 in extended NHL work for Columbus the next season. Nathan Lawson had an unbelievable .938 with Binghamton last year, yet in his NHL time with the Islanders managed a .893 save percentage. Goalies are unpredictable, but the AHL numbers at least put Markstrom in the “don’t give up yet” category. There is another factor – one that is highly debated amongst hockey stat folks: How the Panthers’ awful defense affects its goalie’s numbers. Some say no matter how bad a team is, the save percentage statistic should be mostly unaffected by poor defense – that a team will simply give up more shots and therefore more goals. It seems to go against intuition. It would seem that poorer defensive teams will make more mistakes, give up more odd-man rushes and more shots close to the net. Right? If that were true, why do great defensive teams like St. Louis have goaltenders with mediocre save percentages? At best, there is no clear answer. For example, when Ryan Miller was traded off the league’s worst Buffalo Sabres, his save percentage was a solid .923. His backup Jhonas Enroth (albeit in a small sample) had a .906 save percentage. You can spin this whichever way works for your narrative. 1) See how much better Miller is? That means he is overcoming the team and having an amazing year. 2) See how Enroth’s numbers are worse than his career .912 save percentage? It must be because of how bad the team is. It might be a case-to-case basis. In the case of the Panthers and Markstrom, we know that no other goalie in the last two years has had any better luck than he did. Of course, we are not exactly talking about Dominik Hasek in his prime in Scott Clemmensen, Tim Thomas and Jose Theodore. Nonetheless, Markstrom has a .904 5-on-5 save percentage over the past two seasons, whereas the other three have a .907 EV save percentage. In Vancouver, the goalie factory seems to spin out good netminder after good netminder. Rookie Eddie Lack has a .932 even-strength save percentage this season. This on the heels of Corey Schneider (.931 EV save percentage last year) rising up the ranks to challenge Roberto Luongo, who had a .921 EV save percentage this season. They all might be good goalies or they all might be assisted by strong defensive play or something systematic. Again, there is not an exact answer – and the New Jersey Devils and Marty Brodeur show us that puck possession does not always help save percentage – but the Canucks are ninth in the NHL in Fenwick Close percentage and only five of the bottom 15 teams in save percentage had a plus-50 percent Fenwick Close percentage. All we have is hints that the Canucks’ defense, possession and system might help Markstrom. We also have his age, pedigree and AHL stats. Is it enough to make a bold prediction that he becomes a top flight goalie in Vancouver? Not exactly. But the hints are enough to feel positive that it is too soon to call the 24-year-old a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grand17 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Call me crazy but I think Lack will be pretty much as good as Schneider. I watched him play quite a few times when they came to Abbotsford. I was always hoping for Schneider/Lack duo on the Canucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandro17 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I don't see the goal tending tandem doing all that well moving forward in this season. I think it will be good for us in the long run in future seasons though. We'll probably need to sign a veteran presence in net come FA to continue to guide Lack to make the transition from backup goalie to full time goal tending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamhuis23 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pouria Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It's the end of the Luongo era. Now we're left with two relatively unproven young goalies with a combined 69 NHL starts. Markstrom comes as a highly acclaimed prospect, though he has proven little in the time he's had in Florida. Lack has been impressive in the string of games he's played for the Canucks. The question is, can he sustain his solid play as the go-to guy over an entire season? Personally, I'm nervous about the Canucks going forward with two such inexperienced goalies. I think the Canucks are probably looking to flip Markstrom in the near future in a trade package that brings us an experienced backup. Or maybe we'll get the experienced backup through another trade and keep Markstrom in the AHL for more seasoning. We'll probably keep Lack since he's proven himself to some degree with the Canucks, while Markstrom so far is all potential. At least Gillis and our scouts are reliable enough when it comes to evaluating goaltending talent. So am not worried about Lack and Markstrom going forward. Lack was signed by Gillis, same with Eriksson and our scouts were responsible for Schneider being drafted. Its all good and there seems to be a surplus of good goaltending right now so it seems every team already has a good tender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOMapleLaughs Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Lol. TSN polls are dumb. That poll was easy. 'Derp, Canucks r bad' If we had acquired Reimer, TO-based TSN poll voters would be very confused, imho. 'Derp, Reimer's da man, but Canucks r bad. Hurp ma head.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westsideconnect Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It's hard to tell if the Canucks are OK with this tandem moving forward mainly because I originally thought they felt great about having Schneider as their franchise goalie for the next 10 years. Personally, I'm alright with it. Goaltender stats are so similar these days and the top goalies always seem to change from year to year. Unless you have that game-breaker that you know is going to be your guy in the playoffs then honestly there are about 30-40 goalies in this league you could put in that net and it wouldn't make that much of a difference. The reason I like Lack is that he falls into that category but I still believe he's going to get better. Is he going to be a 2.00 GAA .930+ save percentage guy in the next few years? Probably not, but I don't think it's that much of a stretch. 5 years from now though I can see him being a top 5-10 goaltender in the league and that's all any team can really ask for right now. The positive is that now is the time to find that out. Give him a couple of years while the team isn't expected to be a true contender and let him get used to starting 60 games per season. In comparison though I think Schneider will be a top 3 goalie very very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skyfall Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 We got value with both young goalies. I'm sure one of them will be traded later when a clear starter emerges. The trend seems to be that most teams can find solid goaltending pretty easily even if they both don't pan out. Especially if we can trade Kesler for a stud defenseman I don't think there's a huge worry. I think gone are the days where we hold onto our core until the bitter end. I see the team as being fluid as the rebuilding commences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
combover Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 been a fan of this team for a looooooooong time. seen to many "next goaltenders" to count. weeks was brought here as a solid next great guy to be the starter he wasn't . Alud while a solid back that was his career but high hopes to start. Hirsh the same thing even mike Fountian or Danny Saborine started off with such promise but never became a regular in the nhl. personally i'm not sold on lack or any goaltender in the system since they haven't proven anything at this level. durability is a huge part of being the number one mental toughness a presence that intimidates the opposition meaning the ability to make the saves a key times and deflate any hope. alot of pressure on a rookie goaltender with really a hand full of NHL games under his belt. i don't know much about Jacob probably pretty similar to what Lack is..... unproven. the canucks could fill a ferris wheel with all the goaltenders they have had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coryberg Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Is he going to be a 2.00 GAA .930+ save percentage guy in the next few years? Probably not Well seeing as he has a 2.05gaa and .926 sv% in his rookie season those goals aren't as daunting as you would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOMapleLaughs Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Pretty sure Markstrom will be better than Mike Fountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westsideconnect Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Well seeing as he has a 2.05gaa and .926 sv% in his rookie season those goals aren't as daunting as you would think. Very true. Tough to tell if he can keep it up over an entire season as a starter but the next 18 games may give us at least a little indication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yes we can nucks Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 69 You dirty dog! Well, I did say '69 between them'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coconuts Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I guess we'll see, but I'm a lot more concerned about the offense than our goaltending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5minutesinthebox Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Maybe? Fasth as a good run of 25 games last season and wasnt even as good as Lack has been for us. This year he played 5 games with a .885 sv % and doesnt have number much better than Markstrom in the AHL this year. Scrivens has been playing great for the Oil, but its a pretty small sample size. Lets see how he does over a full season with no defence in front of him. And thats really the key. We actually have a defence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanNuck Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I meant McDavid. Wrong mick. Yeah, I'd be interested in a team that had McDavid and Reinhart. Haha, I was wondering, is there a 2014 prospect named McKinnon, does Nathan have a brother in that class? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heretic Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Fasth as a good run of 25 games last season and wasnt even as good as Lack has been for us. This year he played 5 games with a .885 sv % and doesnt have number much better than Markstrom in the AHL this year. Scrivens has been playing great for the Oil, but its a pretty small sample size. Lets see how he does over a full season with no defence in front of him. And thats really the key. We actually have a defence. No we don't. The Canucks defense is mediocre at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex Burrows 14 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 If they do fantastic then Gillis will look fantastic but if they fail then Gillis will be fired and rightfully so. This is over the next couple years. Not this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lui's Knob Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Trade our 3rd goalie in 3 years? Wouldn't surprise me here these days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kassquatchian Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 How are lacks stats after tonights stellar performance? Hmmmmmmmmmmmm??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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