Jake Virtanen | #18 | RW

[Gaudette Celly]

 

1 hour ago, Warhippy said:

There's literally 1033 pages of you crapping on jake to pour through

 

Find one damned quote in which I say anything of the sort

 

There's a vast difference between the crap you're pushing and outright calling insinuating someone is a bigot pal

What's still keeping you from the iggy button?  How much more does he have to do to make you hit it?  It's almost like he's daring you, lol

[ForsbergTheGreat]

1 hour ago, The 5th Line said:

Can't find my other tickets but they are around here somewhere.  Went to a game vs The blues earlier this year and against Washington last year, id go to more games but it's expensive being on the island.  My Jake memorabilia inventory will grow over the years as well. 

 

You should ask rob how much patience he has with other teams prospects, he stated numerous times that Tkachuk would never be anything more than Avery, which is funny since Matt has already crushed Averys career highs and he's only in his second season...haha but his sources told him..

 

While you're at it ask him how many goals Wheeler scored in his freshman year.  Apparently Brady only scoring 8 goals this year is a major red flag to him.  but you know patience, especially with PWF....haha I can't believe people take that internet wannabe seriously, but i guess as long as you say want people want to hear they will listen,

[dpn1]

Well, Jake had a bit of a slower night tonight in the hits department but still played ok.  He rung a beautiful shot off the crossbar.  Just a few inches and it would have been a great goal on his off wing.  Keep at it Jake and you will get there sooner than later. 

[Toews]

On what basis is Jake a "playoff performer"? Was he a playoff performer with the Hitmen? Not really, he was actually a better regular season player. Was he a playoff performer during the Comets Calder Cup run? Nope, 1 point in 10 games. How much did he step up for Team Canada in the medal rounds? I cannot remember any big goals. There is no evidence that he is a big game performer. 

 

If you said the same about Horvat or Boeser then you might right as Horvat powered his team to an OHL title (with an absurd 16 goals) while Boeser was the best player on a team that won a national championship including having a goal and three assists in the final.

[guntrix]

8 hours ago, Rob_Zepp said:

No one claimed either.    OJ will be right up there with his draft class - he is more rounded that Sergachev but McAvoy will likely end up being the best of that class.....LOTS of teams missed that.   Virtanen has been able to grab that role at each level and shows all signs of doing it again at NHL level.   That you cannot see that is on you.    

 

The patience comes by knowing that not all players develop at same rate.   Different bodies mature at different rates but, more importantly, so do different brains.   Each player is an individual and NOT A BLOODY ROBOT.   Just because one player is doing well at 19 and the other not as well by your books, at 25 the one doing well may be washing cars for the living and the one that had yet to play an NHL game is in the all-star game.    It not only happens - it happens all the time (well, perhaps not the car washing, more often it is car selling or real estate).   

 

Patience is knowing the game well enough and to have tracked enough, and played with enough, prospects to know that there is at least a window of five years that is needed before you really know where a career is going to go FOR MOST PLAYERS and it is even longer for others.   FEW in Vancouver like thought the Sedins were future Art Ross, Hart etc. winners in their first four or five years.   No one thought Bertuzzi would be one of (if not the) best winger in hockey in his first four or five years.   Blake Wheeler was a decent player when he entered the NHL at 22 years of age but didn't crack 70 points until he was 29 and may crack 90 this year - and turns 32 before next season starts.   He is a big guy (6'5") and will say to anyone who cares to listen, it took him longer to get the game than smaller guys.   Same thing Bertuzzi says (who also says Virtanen will be a stud).

 

Patience is also rooting for people to succeed instead of projecting failure and then hoping to revel in it.    The latter is a bizarre concept to most humans and reeks of something wrong in my humble opinion.   

Why are you setting a 70-point benchmark for Wheeler? Wouldn´t it be easier to just say that he scored 45 points in his rookie season? 

Edited March 24, 2018 by guntrix

[khay]

St. Louis game showed that Virtanen still has long way to go. His hockey IQ does not look like it has improved very much. He doesn't quite have the vision or puck skill to keep the puck in the offensive zone. It looks like he can only see one play, one passing option at a time. Virt is hard to defend when he is skating down in an open lane on defenders. But in a puck possession setting in the offensive zone, he is easy to defend since he only sees one option at a time and hence, it is easy to cut it off. Great physical tools but fine details of the game is very much lacking.

 

Archibald is a better player than Jake at this point just because Archibald is smarter. Being smarter cancels all the physical advantages Jake has.

 

I hope Virtanen works on puck skills (stick handling), passing skills, and I don't know how, but also work on his hockey vision. Maybe he should go to hockey school run by Sedins where they teach situational plays and how to recognize plays  I think if he improves his puck skills and allow himself to make one extra move, it will open up more passing options and if he works on accuracy and speed of the passes, it will make up for his lack of hockey IQ/vision by a lot. Ah, and he needs to learn to get a shot on net.

 

[rekker]

4 hours ago, khay said:

St. Louis game showed that Virtanen still has long way to go. His hockey IQ does not look like it has improved very much. He doesn't quite have the vision or puck skill to keep the puck in the offensive zone. It looks like he can only see one play, one passing option at a time. Virt is hard to defend when he is skating down in an open lane on defenders. But in a puck possession setting in the offensive zone, he is easy to defend since he only sees one option at a time and hence, it is easy to cut it off. Great physical tools but fine details of the game is very much lacking.

 

Archibald is a better player than Jake at this point just because Archibald is smarter. Being smarter cancels all the physical advantages Jake has.

 

I hope Virtanen works on puck skills (stick handling), passing skills, and I don't know how, but also work on his hockey vision. Maybe he should go to hockey school run by Sedins where they teach situational plays and how to recognize plays  I think if he improves his puck skills and allow himself to make one extra move, it will open up more passing options and if he works on accuracy and speed of the passes, it will make up for his lack of hockey IQ/vision by a lot. Ah, and he needs to learn to get a shot on net.

 

He has a ways to go yet for sure. Its promising that he can throw some good hits here and there and skate the puck up into the zone while backing up the D. These skills will buy him time while the game in his mind hopefully slows down around him.

[Rob_Zepp]

7 hours ago, guntrix said:

Why are you setting a 70-point benchmark for Wheeler? Wouldn´t it be easier to just say that he scored 45 points in his rookie season? 

As a 22 year old - got 21 goals and didn't break 20 again for another SEVEN seasons and now appears a lock to do it each and every year.   My point was to pick something close to a point-per-game pace that puts him in elite territory.   It took until he was almost 30 to get there.

 

Those ragging on Virtanen should realize the kid won't be 22 until just before training camp next year.   Not suggesting it will take Virtanen another 8 years to hit his peak but if someone had written off Wheeler as a one-hit 20 goal scoring wonder his 22 year old year - well, they would look silly now.

 

Big guys.    Lots of examples.

[Rob_Zepp]

7 hours ago, khay said:

St. Louis game showed that Virtanen still has long way to go. His hockey IQ does not look like it has improved very much. He doesn't quite have the vision or puck skill to keep the puck in the offensive zone. It looks like he can only see one play, one passing option at a time. Virt is hard to defend when he is skating down in an open lane on defenders. But in a puck possession setting in the offensive zone, he is easy to defend since he only sees one option at a time and hence, it is easy to cut it off. Great physical tools but fine details of the game is very much lacking.

 

Archibald is a better player than Jake at this point just because Archibald is smarter. Being smarter cancels all the physical advantages Jake has.

 

I hope Virtanen works on puck skills (stick handling), passing skills, and I don't know how, but also work on his hockey vision. Maybe he should go to hockey school run by Sedins where they teach situational plays and how to recognize plays  I think if he improves his puck skills and allow himself to make one extra move, it will open up more passing options and if he works on accuracy and speed of the passes, it will make up for his lack of hockey IQ/vision by a lot. Ah, and he needs to learn to get a shot on net.

 

He had those skills at other levels - it is more about confidence and situational play.   The key, at least in my opinion, is letting him play on his off wing.   That is his natural position.   The other thing he seemingly needs is a Dcorp that can make a stretch pass with some degree of accuracy and frequency.

[ForsbergTheGreat]

GOALS DON'T DETERMINE INDIVIDUAL SUCCESS. 

Why do people have such a hard time understanding that?  Wheeler isn't known for being a goal scorer, he's an excellent playmaker, so why would someone rank his success of 20 goal season.  This year Wheeler is having his best season in the NHL and he's doesn't even have 20 goals.  According to Rob it couldn't be chalked up to a successful season, which is mind boggling.

 

PS, if anyone needs any more proof to see how Rob makes stuff up.

 

2009- 21 goals

2010 - 18 goals

2011 - 18 goals

2012 - 17 goals

2013 - 19 goals (in lockout season only played 48 games)

2014 - 28 goals.

 

Now i wasn't a math major but anyone that states "didn't break 20 again for another SEVEN seasons" can not be taken seriously.  But hey maybe he just got bad info from his sources...haha.  

Edited March 24, 2018 by ForsbergTheGreat

[Bissurnette]

3 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

GOALS DON'T DETERMINE INDIVIDUAL SUCCESS. 

Why do people have such a hard time understanding that?  Wheeler isn't known for being a goal scorer, he's an excellent playmaker, so why would someone rank his success of 20 goal season.  This year Wheeler is having his best season in the NHL and he's doesn't even have 20 goals.  According to Rob it couldn't be chalked up to a successful season, which is mind boggling.

 

PS, if anyone needs any more proof to see how Rob makes stuff up.

 

2009- 21 goals

2010 - 18 goals

2011 - 18 goals

2012 - 17 goals

2013 - 19 goals (in lockout season only played 48 games)

2014 - 28 goals.

 

Now i wasn't a math major but anyone that states "didn't break 20 again for another SEVEN seasons" can not be taken seriously.  But hey made he just got bad info from his sources...haha.  

He's arguing patience for our 21 year old players. You, and a few others seem to have missed that point.

[ForsbergTheGreat]

Just now, Vanuckles said:

He's arguing patience for our 21 year old players. You, and a few others seem to have missed that point.

In order to get a point across one might not want to use cherry picked stats.  And when one does use stats, one should probably check if they are accurate.  Posting fake news doesn't do anything to supporting a point.  

 

Good have patience with our 21 year olds, I can't speak for everyone but I don't see too many people calling him a bust and trade him away for scraps, what i do see is people posting concerns about his progress and others jumping in to defend him, even when those concerns have legit logic behind it. As is said in the last page, i'm glad he's showing more signs this year, because patience runs out when players are no longer waiver eligible and teams are forced to make a decision.  Kind of like we are going to have to do with Goldi this summer.,

[The Lock]

17 hours ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

I think it's more and more common to see players make the jump sooner, that doesn't mean if a player doesn't they are right off, it just means the likely hood of them reaching impact status is a lot lower.  There was a article a couple years ago (i'll have to try and dig it up) showing how by the time players hit 22, if they are still in the AHL,  despite possibly putting up good offensive numbers they rarely turn out.  Guys like Rychel, Grenier and Valk are very unlikely to turn into a top NHLer,  Players like Yanni gourde are the exception not the expectation.  I'm glad Jake has made strides this year, he was running out of time no longer being waiver free

The way I see it, there's a lot of players that we're talking about in that category of still being in the AHL by 22: 1st rounders, 7th rounders, undrafted players, etc. This includes players that have made strides but it also includes players that lose motivation or just don't get anywhere. It's easy to clump them all together in a package, put a bow on top and say that these players will likely "all fail after 22".

 

That's fine and all, but with such a large pool of players to draw from coming from so many varying successes in the past to how they got there in the first place, is there anything to show 1st rounders specifically or 7th rounders or whatever after the age of 22? Is there going to be a difference in the success rate of 1st rounders compared with 7th rounders after the age of 22? To me, that would be interesting and more useful for discussions like these. I'd be actually rather curious about that.

[Jägermeister]

The whole power forwards develop later thing is a straight up myth.  Very few of these guys went from being 4th liners at 21 to top 6 forwards at 26.  Look at the best power forward wingers in the league the past few years, and look at their best statistical year by the time they started their age 22 season (which Jake will be doing next season).  

 

Iginla - 28G and 51P

Benn - 22G and 56P

Lucic - 17G and 42P

Perry - 17G and 44P

Neal - 24G and 37P (77 games)

Simmonds - 16G and 40P

Saad - 19G and 47P

Kane - 30G and 57P

Hartnell - 14G and 41P (75 games)

 

Even the "late-bloomers" were all very productive by the conclusion of their age 22 season.  

Wheeler - 21G and 45P

Stone - 26G and 64P

Kreider - 17G and 37P (66 games)

Brown - 17G and 46P

 

Brown is the only of those 4 who had played a full NHL season prior to his breakout.

 

Heck, even everyone's "late-bloomer" poster boy Bertuzzi had a 18G and 39P season under his belt by 22 (as a rookie as well).

 

Virtanens best season is this year, 8G and 17P (69 games).

 

Almost every single NHL power forward was productive at 22.  They were scoring around 15 goals and putting up around 40 points at minimum. 

The "late-bloomers" were all doing this at 23, and most of them were in their first full NHL season.

The only real exception I could find was Andrew Ladd who broke out in his age 23 season to 15G and 49 P.

 

If you are looking at statistical history there is every reason to be concerned that Jake is not going to be a top 6 forward based on his production so far.  This would ring especially true if he doesn't break out next year.  The stats are simply not on Jakes side right now.

 

Now does it mean he certainly won't be a top 6 forward?  Of course not.  Every players path is different and stats aren't infallible.  But basing your argument on some notion that power forwards take a long time to develop into scoring threats is just plain false.  

Edited March 24, 2018 by Jägermeister

[ForsbergTheGreat]

6 minutes ago, The Lock said:

The way I see it, there's a lot of players that we're talking about in that category of still being in the AHL by 22: 1st rounders, 7th rounders, undrafted players, etc. This includes players that have made strides but it also includes players that lose motivation or just don't get anywhere. It's easy to clump them all together in a package, put a bow on top and say that these players will likely "all fail after 22".

 

That's fine and all, but with such a large pool of players to draw from coming from so many varying successes in the past to how they got there in the first place, is there anything to show 1st rounders specifically or 7th rounders or whatever after the age of 22? Is there going to be a difference in the success rate of 1st rounders compared with 7th rounders after the age of 22? To me, that would be interesting and more useful for discussions like these. I'd be actually rather curious about that.

Yeah I'm not sure if there is anything like that, although I would also be curious.  My assumption would be that players taken later and under drafted are more likely do make impacts later, just due to them being slower developers, hence why they fell so far in the draft, Gourde is a perfect example and even Burrows. 

 

[J-23]

17 hours ago, The 5th Line said:

Can't find my other tickets but they are around here somewhere.  Went to a game vs The blues earlier this year and against Washington last year, id go to more games but it's expensive being on the island.  My Jake memorabilia inventory will grow over the years as well. 

Card on the right reminds me of Jannik Hansens rookie season card. 

[Gaudette Celly]

15 hours ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

You should ask rob how much patience he has with other teams prospects, he stated numerous times that Tkachuk would never be anything more than Avery, which is funny since Matt has already crushed Averys career highs and he's only in his second season...haha but his sources told him..

No he didn't, he said Tkachuk would end up like him due to his attitude and dirty play.  Then you pull up scoring, lol.

 

1 hour ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

PS, if anyone needs any more proof to see how Rob makes stuff up.

Oh the ironing...

[Toews]

10 minutes ago, Hutton Wink said:

No he didn't, he said Tkachuk would end up like him due to his attitude and dirty play.  Then you pull up scoring, lol.

 

Oh the ironing...

End up like what? Avery kept collecting paychecks till he became a replacement quality player. Seeing as Tkachuk is a much better talent than Avery that day likely won't come for him for a long time. Avery's decline and subsequent ouster from the league had more to do with him stinking it up on the ice than his attitude. The Rangers gave him plenty of chances before they waived him. 

[guntrix]

2 hours ago, Rob_Zepp said:

As a 22 year old - got 21 goals and didn't break 20 again for another SEVEN seasons and now appears a lock to do it each and every year.   My point was to pick something close to a point-per-game pace that puts him in elite territory.   It took until he was almost 30 to get there.

 

Those ragging on Virtanen should realize the kid won't be 22 until just before training camp next year.   Not suggesting it will take Virtanen another 8 years to hit his peak but if someone had written off Wheeler as a one-hit 20 goal scoring wonder his 22 year old year - well, they would look silly now.

 

Big guys.    Lots of examples.

Not sure why you´re honing in on Wheeler´s goals when he´s scored more assists in every single NHL season he´s played in. You´re purposely taking away more than half of his point production/season. 

 

And the PFW theory can be easily debunked. I´d go through it again but I see someone already explained it in the last page. There´s literally no solid evidence to suggest that Jake is on a trajectory of Bert/Wheeler/etc. unless you´re basing your argument on him being an outlier. 

[Rob_Zepp]

2 minutes ago, guntrix said:

Not sure why you´re honing in on Wheeler´s goals when he´s scored more assists in every single NHL season he´s played in. You´re purposely taking away more than half of his point production/season. 

 

And the PFW theory can be easily debunked. I´d go through it again but I see someone already explained it in the last page. There´s literally no solid evidence to suggest that Jake is on a trajectory of Bert/Wheeler/etc. unless you´re basing your argument on him being an outlier. 

I am "purposefully taking away his point production"?   What on earth are you talking about?   I haven't taken anything from him.    I can talk points or goals or whatever - he is an example that is a good one as he is a perfect example of a power forward who didn't enter NHL until 22 and took about six or seven seasons to really hit his stride.   He is an anomaly in how long he took as most will be the four to five years (e.g. Bertuzzi) but as he is playing now and playing so well, he is a great example.

 

Of course there is no solid evidence re. Virtanen - every player has their own trajectory.   However, trends are trends for players like this and there is no question to a trained eye that Virtanen made huge strides this year and his defensive numbers (TA/GA) and hits (per game or, even more impressive, per 60) are entering elite (lead leading) and if he can break through on the offense then he can be dominant to the degree he has shown in other leagues in his life.   

 

If Virtanen is 26 and stuck in the 10-15 goal, 30 point range and playing 12 to 14 minutes then he will be a solid NHL player but far from what he projected to be.   If he is a 20 plus scorer int he top 25-30 for hits and maintains his solid TA/GA and can get 15-18 minutes per game, he is a solid top 6 player for any team.   I see that in him and suggest it may come as early as him being 23 or 24 versus the later blooming many others have shown.