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What to do with Luca Sbisa


thejazz97

Luca Sbisa, 2015 RFA  

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How much has he improved this season? The eye test seems to be favourable... Advanced stats also show improvement, but not as drastic as I'd have expected.

I still think he HAS improved and combine that with the fact I see him as our most athletic defender; I think he's worth bringing back even at a relatively steep price. His physicality, speed and at least willingness to drop the gloves (he's not a big fighter, but I know he has at least one) also help fill some of the deficiencies on the team. I also like him in the offensive zone, despite his lack of points. Sometimes his pinches are bad, but sometimes excellent - he isn't afraid to shoot either.

For all that, considering his age, it definitely seems like a Benning type gamble.

Edit: bringing him back at 2.9 on a bridge deal, that is.

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When Sbisa was brought in, it was known that he was going to be a few years away from a top 4 player. He's got the size and helps the team be tougher to play against. I would think the management would maintain their plan rather than to react prematurely.

Sbisa is not some unseasoned kid who just needs more experience.

He's played 339 NHL games. The guy just does not have the hockey IQ to be a top 4 defenseman.

We were waiting for him to be that for 5 seasons in Anaheim.

From what I've seen from him this year, he has improved slightly from last year, but given his tools he's still majorly under performing. If Nucks fans are waiting for him to be a top four guy, you'll probably be waiting a long time.

Having said that. the Ducks are paying Stoner 3.25 for the next three seasons so Sbisa somewhere in the 2.5+mil range wouldn't be terrible for you guys.

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Sbisa has been playing a top 4 role for most of the season. There are times he has trouble with coverage but there are also times when he is a physical force and can move the puck with speed. He broke into the NHL at 18. Not many d-men who can do that. It will probably be a couple of years before any of the prospects will challenge him for his spot.

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The stats above don't give a clear picture of Sbisa though.. He didn't play well for the first half of the season, we all know that. But since January, his play has really improved. Hammer was injured for a month or 2 of the season? Bieksa was injured for quite a while, and Weber and Stanton have both played less games. (I may be wrong about this, so I apologize if I am)

I'd love to sign him to a 1 - 2 year bridge deal to see what comes of him. With Hammer and Bieksa's deals expiring next year; hopefully we an resign them for less, considering there play has dropped off quite a bit. They are still important to the team however.

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The stats above don't give a clear picture of Sbisa though.. He didn't play well for the first half of the season, we all know that. But since January, his play has really improved. Hammer was injured for a month or 2 of the season? Bieksa was injured for quite a while, and Weber and Stanton have both played less games. (I may be wrong about this, so I apologize if I am)

I'd love to sign him to a 1 - 2 year bridge deal to see what comes of him. With Hammer and Bieksa's deals expiring next year; hopefully we an resign them for less, considering there play has dropped off quite a bit. They are still important to the team however.

As you said "since January his play has really improved" I've divided the season into two parts, start through Dec 31, and New Years to date. All figures are from war-on-ice.com as of a few minutes ago and all ignore power play and penalty kill time. I also looked at data since Feb 1.

From October to December for Sbisa: 30 games, 4 points (0.13 ppg), CF% 47.43%, CF%RelTM -1.68 (4th among Canuck defencemen behind Edler, Tanev and Weber), FF%RelTM -1.38 (again, 4th among Canuck defencemen), FF% 48.74.

From January 1 to date for Sbisa: 43 games, 5 points (0.11 ppg), CF% 46.73, CF%RelTM -4.39 (8th among Canuck defencemen behind Hamhuis, Tanev, Edler, Clendening, Weber, Bieksa and Stanton, ahead of Corrado and Biega), FF%RelTM -6.29 (9th among Canuck defencemen, behind the same d-men as for CF%Rel plus Corrado), FF% 46.27 (9th again, same as for FF%Rel).

In the 30 games from October to December his Zone Starts Offensive % was 44.73%, least favourable among Canuck defencemen. Since January 1 when he's out for faceoffs his ZSO% is 51.78%, more favourable to him than any Canuck defenceman except Weber.

Before January he had the 3rd strongest teammates CF% among Canuck defencemen at 51.36 and the 3rd strongest (among Canuck d-men) CF% of opponents at 49.43% (though the ranges were very small, especially for opponents.) From January 1 to present he has the 4th strongest teammates CT% among Canuck d-men (49.86) and 6th strongest opponents (CC%=50.39).

I checked a little for stats since Feb 1. He has 5 pts in 32 games (0.16 ppg), CF% 46.73% (ahead of only Biega, Corrado and by a very small margin Stanton), CF%RelTM of -3.68 (beating only Corrado and Biega among Canuck d-men), FF% of 46.85 (8th, ahead of Biega and Corrado), FF%Rel of -4.73 (way behind everyone except Corrado and Biega.) So if one goes by only February through April 4, his stats are slightly better but still horrible.

He does hit more than the other Canuck defencemen. In case +/- over the time period of almost a full season means anything, he's last on the team in +/-. Sometimes that can be attributed to an unlucky low PDO, and Sbisa's PDO for the season is 8th among 10 Canuck defencemen, but at 98.27 it is almost the same as that of Hamhuis, Tanev and Bieksa and just barely ahead of Biega's.)

Ok, the eye test says he's improved. Statistically, it isn't showing up. His stats from January to date are terrible and it doesn't appear to be because of how he's being used, at least statistically. It's possible some if it may be being paired with Bieksa, with whom he doesn't seem particularly compatible as a defensive partner, but I haven't looked through the stats to verify that, other than my earlier post that only provided info about the 12 game period since the current Canuck pairings have been consistently in place.

You mentioned Sbisa has played more games than Stanton and Weber, which is true, but of the 79 games played by the Canucks so far, Sbisa has played 73, Weber 62 and Stanton 53. Sbisa also has more time on ice, but what that really means is that Sbisa's horrible stats are reasonably reliable, not the result of a small sample size. Weber and Stanton's sample sizes are smaller, but not all that small. Corrado, Biega and Clendening do have sample sizes that are so small that their data can't be considered very reliable.

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That being said Sbisa has the 2nd worst Corsi and Fenwick ratings behind only Dorsett which scream "bad defensively". Bieksa is pretty low on the USAT and SAT values too, whereas Tanev and Edler are head and shoulders better than any other defenceman on the Canucks roster, and Weber and Hamhuis are humming along a pretty decent USAT/SAT statline.

It's probably the best indication anyone has statistically of how good defensively compared to offensively a player is. Sbisa's SAT sits at -131 meaning that he's on the ice for more shot attempts against compared to for. Unsurprisingly he's been on the ice for the most shots against on the team, despite playing far less minutes than Alex Edler and Tanev.

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Yes cause one night is the best way to gauge players. +1 :rolleyes:

I agree that the plus/minus rating may be misleading, but he is far ahead of the Canucks' defense in hits (guess who's second) and ranks only behind Tanev in shot blocks.

I realize there may be issues with possession stats, but with a defense corps that is lacking in the physicality department, I think a pairing that ranks highest in hits is something that should be taken into account.

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Tyhee

So you calculated the fancy stats on a 30 game sample size and come up with the same conclusions.

Now we know for sure that the only thing in Sbisa's favour is his age.

I got the impression when Sbisa was brought in, that Benning was hoping that his play would settle out. He has cooled it with the fresh and hot pizza delivery service but we can see that over all, he is still the same guy.

If they get rid of him, I think they are still going to want a defenseman in his mid 20's to take his place.

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I would not assume that Tanev will hold up in CUP play. Last night LA was working him pretty hard and that will accelerate in playoffs. The big question with Tanev is will experience allow him to over come the physical play? A fallback position has to be a Sbisa who is bigger and can handle tougher play.

My biggest concern with CUP play is the Vancouver defense that is not really built for CUP play. I like the way Bieksa has simplified his game and he is stronger for it. Sbisa did show during the injury binge that he can up his game. But the bottom line is CUP play is not regular season and this group will really struggle. Lack will have to play lights out.

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I would not assume that Tanev will hold up in CUP play. Last night LA was working him pretty hard and that will accelerate in playoffs. The big question with Tanev is will experience allow him to over come the physical play? A fallback position has to be a Sbisa who is bigger and can handle tougher play.

My biggest concern with CUP play is the Vancouver defense that is not really built for CUP play. I like the way Bieksa has simplified his game and he is stronger for it. Sbisa did show during the injury binge that he can up his game. But the bottom line is CUP play is not regular season and this group will really struggle. Lack will have to play lights out.

I think they will be okay. We've got a few guys that can throw the body. Hammy, Sbisa, Edler, Weber, Bieksa - Tanev seems a lot stronger this year.

We are no LA KINGS or Winnipeg Jets in the terms of hitting but I'm sure our top 5-6 can hold their own.

I think our bottom 6 isn't gritty enough - Dorsett and Kenins throw hits on a consistent basis other than that - nobody.

Matthias should be around 3-4 hits a night.. punishing ones.. but I don't think I've seen him throw a hard hit this year.

hopefully when Kassian comes back that he doesn't forget to take the body hard.

Hansen has played well the last few weeks .. but theres literally been no hitting coming from him - he never finishes his checks but I'm hoping come playoff time- majority of them will.

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I would not assume that Tanev will hold up in CUP play. Last night LA was working him pretty hard and that will accelerate in playoffs. The big question with Tanev is will experience allow him to over come the physical play? A fallback position has to be a Sbisa who is bigger and can handle tougher play.

My biggest concern with CUP play is the Vancouver defense that is not really built for CUP play. I like the way Bieksa has simplified his game and he is stronger for it. Sbisa did show during the injury binge that he can up his game. But the bottom line is CUP play is not regular season and this group will really struggle. Lack will have to play lights out.

Someone's CUP is half empty...

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hes pretty much the only D man we have that strikes any fear into our opponents ..we get rid of him we will have the softest D in the league...actually we probably have the softest D in the league with him..

I'm not sure I've seen much fear produced by a Sbisa on the ice. Probably a look more of 'oh boy', we're going to get some chances on this shift.

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