Vegas odds on the Canucks making the playoffs (Discussion)

[J.I.A.H.N]

These are from Sports Club Stats..Take from it what you want!     If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs
Tampa Bay vs Vancouver	-2.0
Los Angeles vs Carolina	-0.2
Arizona vs Calgary	+0.3
Winnipeg vs NY Rangers	-0.2
Philadelphia vs Edmonton	+0.2
Dallas vs Nashville	+0.1
NY Islanders vs St. Louis	+0.2
Boston vs Colorado	+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

 

What If

Chances based on how well the Vancouver finish out the regular season.   Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Division seed				Conference seed (wildcard race)
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1a	1b	2	3	WCb	WCa	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count
111	-136						In		99.2	%	100														365	*
110		40	10		-	6	In		9.1		45	45	9												11	*
109		39	10		-	7	In		25.0		81	19													16	*
108		39	11		-	6	In		11.4		73	23	5												44	*
107		38	11		-	7	In		6.6		57	30	12	1											76	*
106		38	12		-	6	In		0.8		50	31	19												127	*
105		37	12		-	7	In		0.9		32	45	21	1											234	*
104		36	12		-	8	In		0.4		26	38	32	5											507	*
103		36	13		-	7	In		0.1		16	42	37	5	0										771	*
102		36	14		-	6	In		No		9	39	43	8	0										1,248	*
101		35	14		-	7	In		No		6	36	45	12	2	0									2,101	*
100		34	14		-	8	In		No		3	28	48	18	2	0									3,193	*
99		34	15		-	7	In		No		1	23	46	24	5	0									4,876	*
98		33	15		-	8	99.9	%	No		0	16	44	31	8	1	0								7,325	*
97		33	16		-	7	99.8		No		0	11	39	36	11	2	0								10,757	*
96		32	16		-	8	99.7		No		0	7	32	41	16	4	0	0							15,085	*
95		32	17		-	7	98.9		No		0	4	25	41	21	8	1	0							21,274	*
94		31	17		-	8	96.9		No			2	18	39	24	14	3	0	0						29,316	*
93		31	18		-	7	92.9		No			1	12	35	24	21	6	1	0	0					39,083	*
92		30	18		-	8	85.7		No			0	7	29	22	28	12	2	0	0					51,856	*
91		30	19		-	7	74.5		No			0	4	22	17	32	20	5	1	0					66,388	*
90		29	19		-	8	60.7		No			0	2	15	12	32	27	10	2	0					83,114	*
89		29	20		-	7	44.9		No			0	1	10	7	27	34	17	4	0	0				102,601	*
88		28	20		-	8	30.5		No			0	0	6	4	20	35	25	8	1	0				122,737	*
87		28	21		-	7	18.6		No			0	0	3	2	14	33	33	14	2	0	0			143,776	*
86		27	21		-	8	10.1		No			0	0	2	1	8	26	36	22	5	0	0			166,005	*
85		27	22		-	7	4.9		No				0	1	0	4	19	36	29	10	1	0			187,736	*
84		26	22		-	8	2.2		No				0	0	0	2	12	32	35	16	3	0			206,530	*
83		26	23		-	7	0.9		No				0	0	0	1	7	25	38	23	5	0			223,602	*
82		25	23		-	8	0.3		No					0	0	0	4	18	38	30	9	1			235,920	*
81		25	24		-	7	0.1		No					0	0	0	2	12	34	37	15	2			245,195	*
80		24	24		-	8	0.0		No			0 0 1 10 34 41 15     229,918 * 76   22 26 - 8 Out No             0 0 6 28 44 21     214,498 * 75   22 27 - 7 Out No             0 0 3 22 46 29     196,781 * 74   21 27 - 8 Out No		0		0	1	7	27	40	21	4			248,901	*
79		24	25		-	7	0.0		No					0		0	0	4	21	41	29	6			247,954	*
78		23	25		-	8	0.0		No					0		0	0	2	14	38	35	10			241,418	*
77		23	26		-	7	0.0		No
																		0	2	16	45	37			176,589	*
73		21	28		-	7	Out		No									0	1	11	42	46			155,505	*
72		20	28		-	8	Out		No									0	0	8	38	54			132,123	*
71		20	29		-	7	Out		No										0	5	33	62			111,765	*
70		19	29		-	8	Out		No										0	3	27	70			91,955	*
69		19	30		-	7	Out		No										0	2	22	76			74,203	*
68		18	30		-	8	Out		No										0	1	18	82			58,465	*
67		18	31		-	7	Out		No										0	1	13	86			45,194	*
66		17	31		-	8	Out		No											0	10	90			33,928	*
65		17	32		-	7	Out		No											0	7	93			24,945	*
64		16	32		-	8	Out		No											0	5	95			17,857	*
63		16	33		-	7	Out		No											0	4	96			12,604	*
62		15	33		-	8	Out		No											0	2	98			8,695	*
61		15	34		-	7	Out		No											0	1	99			5,698	*
60		15	35		-	6	Out		No												1	99			3,979	*
59		14	35		-	7	Out		No												1	99			2,483	*
58		14	36		-	6	Out		No												1	99			1,498	*
57		13	36		-	7	Out		No												0	100			953	*
24	-56						Out		No													100			1,642	*
Total:							9.7	%	0.0	%	0	0	1	3	2	4	7	11	15	19	20	18			4,311,420

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

[J.I.A.H.N]

Sorry for the formatting..........just thought it was interesting............10 % chance of getting into the playoffs if we get 86 points..........reality, look what the remaining games we must win!

[elvis15]

I'm not sure what we're discussing - that it's hard the way we've been playing to make it into the playoffs? We kinda know. Even with the great start the first four games, and our better play of late, we're going to be in tough with injuries and AHL call ups in place of some of our better players. It's not like we had a Stanley Cup contender to begin with.

 

I looked through all that and didn't even see the Vegas odds on what I'd win if I bet we make the playoffs.

[I.Am.Ironman]

So in order to have a 60% chance at the playoffs we need to go 29-19-8. We have to go on one hell of a roll

[appleboy]

We should be looking at the odds of us drafting first overall. What are the odds of us getting a top five pick? What are the odds that we make a dumb trade to appease the ownership?

[Fateless]

We're not going to make the playoffs. We're not healthy and we don't have the personel.

 

Its just too bad management is too dumb to realize we need to trade vets.

 

 

[Hairy Kneel]

Wow that's dismal.

[J.I.A.H.N]

28 minutes ago, elvis15 said:

I'm not sure what we're discussing - that it's hard the way we've been playing to make it into the playoffs? We kinda know. Even with the great start the first four games, and our better play of late, we're going to be in tough with injuries and AHL call ups in place of some of our better players. It's not like we had a Stanley Cup contender to begin with.

 

I looked through all that and didn't even see the Vegas odds on what I'd win if I bet we make the playoffs.

 

Sorry Elvis, it didn't come out the way I wanted it to.......

 

But it sure lays out the sad truth!

[LaBamba]

If Jim tried to tank we would make the playoffs. 

[Harvey Spector]

We are closer to Nolan Patrick than we are to making the playoffs. Maybe it's for the best as we need that top line centre for a one two punch with BO...

[Qwags]

42 minutes ago, LaBamba said:

If Jim tried to tank we would make the playoffs. 

Ideally, we would win the Cup in the process.

[Hortankin]

1 hour ago, I.Am.Ironman said:

So in order to have a 60% chance at the playoffs we need to go 29-19-8. We have to go on one hell of a roll

Not really.. 29 wins 27 losses.. wouldn't really call that a roll.

 

If Eriksson, Sedins pick up their play and do what they can, and it will eventually happen, we will be that much better.

 

Bo always does better as the year goes on, Baertschi is bound to break out, and Stecher is a solid 2 way defender and eventually our PP is going to go on a tear.

 

Don't forget Rodin will be in the lineup soon and will add that offense we've been lacking in our bottom 6. Virtanen is bound to come back better than ever.

 

Granlund and Sutter are solid 2 way players that alays seem to get the big goals

 

Tryamkin, Hutton, and Gudbranson haven't been playing to their capabilities either and that should come soon enough. We also are without our top 2 Dmen and they will be huge additions when they return.

 

We're not a bad team, if anything it's WD, because I know with the right coach this team could be A LOT better. Wish Babcock came here

[Green Goblin]

So what number will Nolan Patrick wear when we suits up for us? (#19 is obviously retired) #Nazzy

 

The odds of us trading the Sedins are just as slim as us making the playoffs.

 

But I do like the compete level from our players. Win or lose, they're trying hard. #heart

[LaBamba]

37 minutes ago, Hortankin said:

Not really.. 29 wins 27 losses.. wouldn't really call that a roll.

 

If Eriksson, Sedins pick up their play and do what they can, and it will eventually happen, we will be that much better.

 

Bo always does better as the year goes on, Baertschi is bound to break out, and Stecher is a solid 2 way defender and eventually our PP is going to go on a tear.

 

Don't forget Rodin will be in the lineup soon and will add that offense we've been lacking in our bottom 6. Virtanen is bound to come back better than ever.

 

Granlund and Sutter are solid 2 way players that alays seem to get the big goals

 

Tryamkin, Hutton, and Gudbranson haven't been playing to their capabilities either and that should come soon enough. We also are without our top 2 Dmen and they will be huge additions when they return.

 

We're not a bad team, if anything it's WD, because I know with the right coach this team could be A LOT better. Wish Babcock came here

 

There isn't a single sentence in this post I agree with. 

[theilluminati]

43 minutes ago, Hortankin said:

Not really.. 29 wins 27 losses.. wouldn't really call that a roll.

 

If Eriksson, Sedins pick up their play and do what they can, and it will eventually happen, we will be that much better.

 

Bo always does better as the year goes on, Baertschi is bound to break out, and Stecher is a solid 2 way defender and eventually our PP is going to go on a tear.

 

Don't forget Rodin will be in the lineup soon and will add that offense we've been lacking in our bottom 6. Virtanen is bound to come back better than ever.

 

Granlund and Sutter are solid 2 way players that alays seem to get the big goals

 

Tryamkin, Hutton, and Gudbranson haven't been playing to their capabilities either and that should come soon enough. We also are without our top 2 Dmen and they will be huge additions when they return.

 

We're not a bad team, if anything it's WD, because I know with the right coach this team could be A LOT better. Wish Babcock came here

Yes...they have been..if you can't see that's part of the current mediocre Canucks lineup then you're blind...

[JM_]

2 hours ago, janisahockeynut said:

Sorry for the formatting..........just thought it was interesting............10 % chance of getting into the playoffs if we get 86 points..........reality, look what the remaining games we must win!

 

Facts make people sad 

 

Lets go with impossible optimism. JB pulls off a stunning trade for a top line winger and Bo gets to show us his playoff gear 

[Nuxfanabroad]

What's the odds of one of our stars known as Lastname?! Huh, huh?..

[khay]

4 hours ago, I.Am.Ironman said:

So in order to have a 60% chance at the playoffs we need to go 29-19-8. We have to go on one hell of a roll

 

That record, going 10 games over 500 or barely 2 games over 500 (including OTL) used to be a piece of cake... man this franchise has really sunk low compared to the last 13-15 years. 

 

I feel like since the 2001 season, we could have won at least one, maybe even two cups had things gone our way. Naslund and Bertuzzi were two of the top 3 forwards in the NHL. We had the big defence corps which could handle the toughness of the playoffs especially during the clutch and grab era, as well as young and developing Sedins... but missing a top goalie... and of course Bertuzzi-Moore incident. If that team had a legitimate starter and had the Bertuzzi-Moore incident not happen, it could have won a cup.

 

Then, the team with greatest balance in hockey: top 5 offensive talents in Sedins, one of the most competitive/200 ft 2nd line center in Kesler, probably the best defensive center in Malholtra, combined with 6 defencemen, each of top 4 caliber, and an elite goalie as well as the best backup in the NHL. It ran into the team that was worse than it in almost all areas except in toughness... the type of toughness that wouldn't be allowed in the regular season but are fair game in the playoffs and hence, tipped the scale.

 

Hopefully it can return to the team where going 10 games over 500 over a 50 or so games becomes a piece of cake. Go Canucks Go!

 

[Beeekz37]

Now I'm curious about the money thing...

[Gnarcore]

Everyone who had a clue, and based recent comments the management, knew things had to go very right with some very fortunate circumstances to challenge.  While not as bad as last year things mostly out of control have gone very badly: aka injuries to key players stacked upon each other. 

 

Even now looking at the current state of the west ........they aren't some crazy figure out of it.  League parity and some adequate management put this team in a spot that if things went right they had shot to place high enough respectively.  

 

Yes, we all want to win it all but it's not always as black and white as all or nothing.  

 

If anything, right now, Canucks fans should look at this blueline and be happy. They're built from the back end out and holy $&!# does this young blue line show promise. Our top two are out long term and there are mistakes and growing pains clearly.  But there are so many times where the lack of depth up front is sooooo obvious that the current youngest blue line in the league does a far more than adequate job based on the current circumstances.  

 

Then look at the D prospects......it won't get any worse than it is now and right now frankly could be a hell of a lot worse.  That is promising.  

 

I wouldn't trade our current blue line for TO or Edmonton......The Coilers got lucky in McDavid. It's a shame really....a decade of poor management is corrected by a fluke.

 

Toronto tanked in obvious fashion and got Mathews. They also did well and were lucky in drafting the obvious choice in Marner. In the lottery I wanted #2 and Laine and I still think he's the choice of the draft. At 19 he may the greatest shot the world has ever seen. Angles no one else hits from distance off a quick release combined with the RH one timer of Hull/Ovi?  He will be the next player to hit 50 in 50 if the Jets give him the back up. 

 

Does anyone think, right now, that Edm or TO actually match up under playoff hockey?  Only if the league ensures it........which could happen......not like they haven't changed the rules on a whim before.....