Pronman Rates Prospects #2 - Rebuild Done?

[Dekey Pete]

32 minutes ago, mikeyman109 said:

there are plenty of other possible impact players in this draft coming up.

The rebuild is not finished until we have a dynamic competitive team. We still need another D man and another Center to avoid the overpayment for FA's and not wanting to trade prospects.

One more good draft and we can look at bringing Demko in and chasing the playoffs.

theres nothing wrong with us drafting top 5 again this year but i dont think thats going to happen.

We don't need to have a crappy team to get a good pick at next year's draft.  And being a crappy team doesn't guarantee a good pick either.  I'm confident with Benning running things that chances are we'll get someone good at the draft next year.  If he can somehow add another late first rounder or early second round pick to the mix then all the better.

 

Arguably our most exciting prospect (who's played an NHL game) right now was picked in the 20's of the 1st round.  

[oldnews]

8 minutes ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

Just imagine what this mad genius could have done with a few extra picks.

 

A few extra quality D prospects would surely separate this group from the rest. Instead, guys like Tanev were “needed”

This is very weak reasoning.

 

The reason being - the Canucks still have Tanev - in his prime - and could convert him at any time into an asset or assets that serve the 'rething'.

Or they can retain him to stabilize the progress of a player like Hughes - or Juolevi.

 

The whole 'ermagerd' they coulda had another pick/s (in the past) is a red herring.

 

Tanev still has his value - the 'rething' is still in progress - your backward looking laments are pretty much irrelevent/illogical.

[Nucker 67]

What's missing? Prospects seem to be in place. In fact, Benning said there were too many forwards. Yes, it will take time to develop all of these gems.

 

Elite Dmen - Hughes, Juolevi

Elite Offence - Pettersson, Boeser, Dahlen

Heart and Soul - Horvat, Virtanen, Gaudette, Gadjovich

Goaltending - Demko, DiPietro

Veteran Leadership - Beagle, Roussel, Sutter, Gagner, Eriksson, Edler, Tanev...

 

Also a good supporting cast of Lind, Goldobin, Leipsic, Jasek, Palmu, Lockwood, Madden, Rathbone, Woo, Brisebois, Chatfield...

[Provost]

30 minutes ago, oldnews said:

 

You're mistaking an opinion of Pronman for an 'argument' that the prospect pool is not one of the NHL's best.

That straw 'argument' you've attempted to "so what you're saying" has nothing to do with what I actually posted.

So Pronman is parroting what most other sources are now saying.....big deal.

Post an aggregate of rankings and I might find some value in it.  What Pronman alone thinks is right up there with canucksmarmy 'anayticz'.

Except you responded to the OP by using your opinion of Pronman’s “fluffy projections” to undercut the argument that our prospect pool was deep enough to have the rebuild complete.

 

[Provost]

7 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

What's missing? Prospects seem to be in place. In fact, Benning said there were too many forwards. Yes, it will take time to develop all of these gems.

 

Elite Dmen - Hughes, Juolevi

Elite Offence - Pettersson, Boeser, Dahlen

Heart and Soul - Horvat, Virtanen, Gaudette, Gadjovich

Goaltending - Demko, DiPietro

Veteran Leadership - Beagle, Roussel, Sutter, Gagner, Eriksson, Roussel, Edler, Tanev...

 

Also a good supporting cast of Lind, Goldobin, Leipsic, Jasek, Palmu, Lockwood, Madden, Rathbone, Woo, Brisebois, Chatfield...

We can always argue that more top prospects are good... but that ignores the opportunity cost of wasting the existing player’s youth and cheap ELCs.

 

Realistically the difference is picking a guy like Alexander Newhook at #5 or Cam York at #15.

 

After some reflection it does seem like now is the time to start  slowly adding pieces rather than divesting of them.

 

In that context it does make more sense to be inquiring about players like Karlsson who would make us better (depending on the cost).

[D-Money]

1 hour ago, Provost said:

Did Benning speed it up just by drafting so well in later rounds that he found enough legitimate NHLers?

That helped. But the main reason was finding truly elite prospects much later than they are generally found, with Pettersson and Hughes at #5 and #7. Clearly a massive step up from when we got Virtanen and Juolevi.

 

For what it's worth, as a prospect, Pronman actually has Hughes above Pettersson:

 

Quote

1. Quinn Hughes, D, Michigan-Big Ten

Hughes is one of the best skating defensemen I’ve ever seen at his age. He has incredible agility and ability to get up to a dangerous top speed quickly, and the power he gets from each stride is special. I’ve never seen a defenseman that can pivot from backward at full speed to dashing up the ice like he can. He can transition the puck well due to his feet, but his great puck skills and IQ allow him to drive play. He processes the game so well at both ends of the rink and is extremely creative with the puck, allowing him to make unique rushes and distributions. He controls the puck in a unique way and is very tough to dislodge due to his skating, skill and work ethic. The main drawback on him is his size – and it’s valid – but his sense and feet allow him to disrupt enough plays to be useful defensively, and he’s not a huge liability. His point shot could be a tad stronger, as well. He’s returning to Michigan for his sophomore season.

 

[komodo0921]

1 hour ago, Bure_Pavel said:

One more year with a top 10 pick and im content. After that go for it, still too much uncertainty right now with with almost all of those prospects yet to play an NHL game.

Exactly what I was thinking.

Imo, we need one more top 4 dman, only I'd definitely be looking for one that's ready to step in.

Penciling in Philip Broberg.

A bit early?

Perhaps, but I'm expecting us to be in Broberg range at next years draft. 

Broberg, imo, completes our top four and ready's us to turn the corner. 

2020-2021 we are primed to win.

[oldnews]

1 minute ago, Provost said:

Except you responded to the OP by using your opinion of Pronman’s “fluffy projections” to undercut the argument that our prospect pool was deep enough to have the rebuild complete.

 

Again, you're conflating two things.

 

I can see why you'd interpret that "fluffy" comment that way - however it is not a comment that the ranking itself is inflated -  what is meant by that comment is the fact Pronman is now fluffing this prospect pool means very little to me, as if a qualifier of what almost everyone already perceives.  Like I've already posted, he's changed his chirp considerably based on hindsighting - after Pettersson punked him, Gaudette won a Hobey Baker (who he had ranked at 9 one year ago), Demko continues to bust out (who he likewise sandbagged).  That Pronman is now fluffing this team's prospect pool = who cares.

 

The depth and quality of the prospect pool imo is outstanding - however, that does not equate to a 'rebuild being done'.

The 'rething' is done when this team is contending.  Until then, any declarations of a rething being done is premature and pretentious = a fool's game.

 

It's akin to the silly statements made many times on these boards in the past number of years that the Leafs "rebuild was done" - simply because they'd eeked into the playoffs (and exited in the 1st round) and had a few high end young top 6 forwards.   That, however, does not 'complete' a rething - not even close.  They still had a hopelessly wanting blueline, average goaltending and lots of work to do.  They've now added Tavares and I'd argue that their 'rebuild' nevertheless remains unfinished.

 

The Canucks - are absolutely nowhere near "finished".   They may now have the key pieces in their system that will need to eventually prove to be enough to contend - however, we don't really know that - and projecting the end of a 'rething" at this stage is a fool's game = extremely premature.

 

Top ranked prospect pool = great.  Finished rebuilding = a silly assumption that does not necessarily follow.  Lots of 'top prospect pools' do not amount to 'competed rebuilds' - there is no shortage of 'top prospect' pools that wind up nevertheless being failed rebuilds.

 

 

[D-Money]

6 minutes ago, Provost said:

In that context it does make more sense to be inquiring about players like Karlsson who would make us better (depending on the cost).

I'm all for acquiring Karlsson - provided Boeser, Hughes, Pettersson, Horvat, and Demko aren't going the other way. But more than willing to talk a package involving anyone else.

 

It's not necessarily that "the time is now", but more like the legitimate chance to acquire a top-10 player in the league, who just happens to play at our weakest position organizationally, is not something that comes up anytime. The only time to pass on that is if you don't have a hope in hell of competing over the next few years - and I think we're past that (wouldn't have said that a year ago).

[Provost]

24 minutes ago, D-Money said:

I'm all for acquiring Karlsson - provided Boeser, Hughes, Pettersson, Horvat, and Demko aren't going the other way. But more than willing to talk a package involving anyone else.

 

It's not necessarily that "the time is now", but more like the legitimate chance to acquire a top-10 player in the league, who just happens to play at our weakest position organizationally, is not something that comes up anytime. The only time to pass on that is if you don't have a hope in hell of competing over the next few years - and I think we're past that (wouldn't have said that a year ago).

Pretty much my thoughts.

 

With the current roster, we are almost certainly going to be terrible this year.  Getting Karlsson at a decent price (though one that still hurts), moves us to probably being a bubble playoff team.

Slightly decreasing our chance at Jack Hughes by finishing higher doesn’t give me any heartache at all right now.

Our young D would be helped by having a top tier mentor, and our young forwards would certainly be helped by having someone who can actually pass to them at at elite level.  They can learn actual 4 man system offended rather than having to try to do it themselves lacking enough skill as a unit.

If there is a knock on Horvat it is that most of his offense is generated by himself with individual effort.  Passing and tic-tac-toe plays aren’t hisbstrong suit.  That could clearly be a function of who he has had to play with and it just being a necessity to create that habit.  How much better would he be playing with elite passers, especially on the PP.

[aGENT]

1 hour ago, Rush17 said:

So we went from having the worst prospect pool to the second best in 4 and a half years.

 

Benning working some magic 

Funny, many on here seem to think he only started actually rebuilding when he moved Hansen and Burrows at the 2017 TDL or roughly 1.5 years ago 

 

That's beyond mere magic. Benning may actually be the resurrected with that time line! 

[CaNuCkSLoUiE23]

I still think we need another solid young defenceman or two 

[Where'd Luongo?]

2 hours ago, Provost said:

The Athletic ranks our prospect pool as #2 behind just Buffalo.  That doesn’t even include Boeser as he isn’t a prospect now.

 

Basically all the rankings show us in the top 5 or higher.

 

At what point do we say the rebuild is done?  Did Benning speed it up just by drafting so well in later rounds that he found enough legitimate NHLers?

 

It would be nice to keep adding, but there is also a point where you just start paying prospects market rate of higher as they come off ELCs as new ones come in... a cycle of not getting better or leveraging of their cheap ELC years.

 

It seems like we have enough kids to filter into the lineup over the next 4-5 years, and even if we become a playoff team, we still get picks beyond the lottery ones where Benning seems to excel.

 

Is it time to start aiming at the playoffs and improving (but not in “win-now” mode where we sell off youth to contend)?

 

 

You know who had the #1 prospect pool at one point? Edmonton when they had Yak, Nuge, Hall and Eberle! That being said, with the right additions they could have been a good team.

 

If JB makes the right additions we will be a good team. Imagine this team plus Tavares, E. Kane and Hanafin, that would be a sick team.

[Gaudette Celly]

1 hour ago, oldnews said:

Too bad Bennig never started the 'rething'. 

Even again today, on comes Pratt with "owners and management refuse to do a full rebuild", yet the term is never defined, whether by muppet media or the parroting ever-critics in the fanbase.  Doesn't matter that only Edler and Tanev are left, the idea that they sign UFAs and might look to acquire players like Karlsson means "it's not a rebuild".  Meanwhile Toronto signs multiple 37-year-olds and trades away 1st and 2nd round picks after only 2-3 years of rebuilding, and that's called a "model rebuild to envy."

 

The most rational definition (imo) is that a rebuild is a deeper retool or transition.  What teams SHOULD be doing is "semper retoolum", always retooling.  The Hawks have been trying to do it, by continually cycling in a few younger players every year to replace older ones and address team needs.  But when a team gets to the point where the Canucks were in 2014, that process hadn't been done over the years so a deeper more extensive rejigging had to take place. 

 

The transition is done roster-wise as well as culturally with the Sedins' departure.  Now comes the full transition on-ice, and development of the new core.  That doesn't mean we suddenly stop drafting and developing; that should never end.  But next up after this year as we adjust to and establish who will identify as the new core and culture will be to start moving assets from strong positions to fill ones of weakness.

[HerrDrFunk]

7 minutes ago, Where'd Luongo? said:

You know who had the #1 prospect pool at one point? Edmonton when they had Yak, Nuge, Hall and Eberle! That being said, with the right additions they could have been a good team and if JB makes the right additions we will be. This team plus Tavares, E. Kane and Hanafin would be sick.

With Yakupov heading to the KHL, is he officially the biggest 1st overall bust ever? Even though Daigle and Stefan fell far short of expectations, they still stuck with the league longer.

[BlastPast]

Isn't every team "rebuilding " to some extent, regardless of what where they are at in their developmental arc? Not the entire roster but certainly portions f it that can be improved upon.  I think every team has a split focus between the present and the future, with a shift in the balance of that focus depending on where they are at as a team.  Teams that are at the bottom of the standings still have to make some effort to ice a team capable of winning games and teams that are cup winners/contenders still have to consider the future of the team to a degree in order for their present success to be tenable. Think of it like someone who is saving for retirement.  Do you save every penny possible to the extent that you live under a bridge and eat out of dumpsters? No , of course not.  You still have to maintain a lifestyle for yourself that allows you to enjoy the present to a reasonable degree, even if it somewhat undermines your efforts to prepare for your future.  On the other hand it certainly isn't prudent to completely ignore your responsibility to prepare for that future.  I would be more sympathetic to peoples outrage regarding the past few seasons if the team spent a large portion of their highest picks/best prospects in order to accomplish those results.  

[ForsbergTheGreat]

6 minutes ago, Provost said:

Pretty much my thoughts.

 

With the current roster, we are almost certainly going to be terrible this year.  Getting Karlsson at a decent price (though one that still hurts), moves us to probably being a bubble playoff team.

Slightly decreasing our chance at Jack Hughes by finishing higher doesn’t give me any heartache at all right now.

Our young D would be helped by having a top tier mentor, and our young forwards would certainly be helped by having someone who can actually pass to them at at elite level.  They can learn actual 4 man system offended rather than having to try to do it themselves lacking enough skill as a unit.

If there is a knock on Horvat it is that most of his offense is generated by himself with individual effort.  Passing and tic-tac-toe plays aren’t hisbstrong suit.  That could clearly be a function of who he has had to play with and it just being a necessity to create that habit.  How much better would he be playing with elite passers, especially on the PP.

The problem is our young d won’t spend much time in the NHL and I highly doubt karlsson would resign long term in Vancouver which is why we should spend very little if any assets on acquiring him. If he really wants to come here we can sign him as a UFA next summer and keep our assets. 

 

We not at the point where we can go out and bring in a big name. We still have far too many question marks. Hughes demko Juolevi and Pettersson are all yet to lay in a single NHL game. Let’s not get ahead of our selfs like the leaves did in 05. Or the oilers did last year or the flames did in 2016. Where they all went out and brought in big pieces thinking they were close to contending. Stay the course and develop internally at our own pace like the jets have done.  When our prospects have proven them selfs to be legit pieces then we can go out and see if we can fill a few final holes. 

[Where'd Luongo?]

1 minute ago, HerrDrFunk said:

With Yakupov heading to the KHL, is he officially the biggest 1st overall bust ever? Even though Daigle and Stefan fell far short of expectations, they still carved out decent, if unremarkable, NHL careers. 

Ok, so in 2012 was he considered a bust or a top prospect?

[HerrDrFunk]

Just now, Where'd Luongo? said:

Ok, so in 2012 was he considered a bust or a top prospect?

In 2012? He was a top prospect but you can't say things didn't go downhill for him quickly after his first season. 

[oldnews]

37 minutes ago, Provost said:

We can always argue that more top prospects are good... but that ignores the opportunity cost of wasting the existing player’s youth and cheap ELCs.

 

I think that is short-term/short-sighted and/or oversimplified 'either/or' thinking.

 

I agree with people who believe they don't need to continue on some (imaginary) course of 'stockpiling' picks (they've never really had an 'all-in' approach to that effect regardless) - or continue 'divesting' players in order to focus principally on futures ....In any event, I agree there is sufficient critical mass to level out at another stage.

 

However, this is not an either/or question, where the alternative or obvious next stage is to shift to shorter term thinking - as if they'd be 'wasting' their youth if they don't shift their focus to acquisitions to take advantage of a perceived opening window.  The assumption that ELCs would be 'wasted' has an obvious counterpoint  imo - which is to continue to import young players and ELCs - so that by the time this group matures - (and you may not be able to retain all of them if they in fact turn out as hoped), you have another wave of youth and ELCs to support that group and sustain your window in the salary cap era. 

 

I think the latter is preferable - as you'd actually have the benefit of seeing whether this current group when developed constitutes a contending core.  If they do, and you've continued to bring in youth/prospects to sustain them, you have another generation to continue to build on.   It could very well be the players that are drafted this year or next that prove to put this team over the top in the future.   In other words - it could go either way - and one of those runs clearly against your perception of 'wasting' the current group.