Goodbye Hong Kong. Nice knowing you....

[JM_]

6 minutes ago, 6of1_halfdozenofother said:

Perhaps, but fact of the matter is that even with ccp encroachment of those territories, the States won't have too much of their access curtailed, so if they are willing to bear the reduced access, then too bad for Taiwan (and whatever agreements they've signed) I guess.

I guess I don't have much faith in the US anymore. 

[Boudrias]

16 hours ago, 6of1_halfdozenofother said:

Not to mention that the KMT has been wanting cooperation with the ccp for the last few decades.  I wouldn't be surprised if they would try to pull the rug out from under the DPP and the Taiwanese President should an invasion happen.

 

The Americans have always acted as the ccp's main deterrent on the Taiwanese front.  Who knows what deals they've made with Taiwan that haven't been put in the public domain yet?  I wouldn't doubt there's some sort of protection agreement in place that obligates the Americans to send military assistance in case of invasion, but the real concern would be whether or not the Americans would renege on these types of agreements.

 

On a related note, transactional as the current administration is, it wouldn't surprise me if Trump had a side deal with Winnie the Pooh to not step in if the ccp were to invade.  That would totally be Trump's style.

Tactically I cannot see the Americans reinforcing Taiwan unless they have troops already there. Having 50-60,000 troops in SK works to deter the Norks. I don't know how many USA troops are in Taiwan? A few years back there was a call for 4 divisions but nothing happened I don't think. I believe there is a USA air force base. Any defacto landing of PLA troops in Taiwan, even if contained, is the end. Any deterrence to the CCP has to be a nuclear threat if Taiwan independence is threatened.   

[Lancaster]

19 hours ago, Boudrias said:

In 1979 PLA invaded North Vietnam with 200,000 troops. China objected to NVA occupation of Cambodia. PLA could have moved thru to Hanoi but withdrew after making their point. Afterwards that the Vietnamese purged over 20,000 from their communist party for being sympathetic to the Chinese. My point being is that CCP has made enemies with their aggressive foreign policy in SE Asia. 

 

I make the point that the Taiwanese cannot depend on any help if the PLA attacks. IMHO the only credible deterrence would be nuclear weapons which I suspect they could have developed or bought. 81 miles between Taiwan and the mainland. Not insignificant but it would not stop a determined foe. One would have to suspect that the CCP has developed a significant 5th column in Taiwan.    

Massive losses to the PLA though.  My dad was around when he saw convoys of soldiers and material heading to the front lines towards Vietnam.... saw lots of trucks with corpses and wounded returning.  

 

The problem is that the PLA is a paper-tiger.  No combat experience, antiquated command structures, many joining the PLA for political purposes, unproven military technology, etc.  Considering how many soldiers are the only child/son of many families and outrage there will be once casualties starts going up.... the Chinese military is pretty paralyzed.  

 

1 hour ago, Boudrias said:

Tactically I cannot see the Americans reinforcing Taiwan unless they have troops already there. Having 50-60,000 troops in SK works to deter the Norks. I don't know how many USA troops are in Taiwan? A few years back there was a call for 4 divisions but nothing happened I don't think. I believe there is a USA air force base. Any defacto landing of PLA troops in Taiwan, even if contained, is the end. Any deterrence to the CCP has to be a nuclear threat if Taiwan independence is threatened.   

Okinawa is just a stone throw away.  If China goes on the offensive and bombs Japanese territory.... it will really escalate the conflict even more.  Japan spends as much on its "Self-defense force" as the UK or France spends on their militaries.  

[Boudrias]

24 minutes ago, Lancaster said:

Massive losses to the PLA though.  My dad was around when he saw convoys of soldiers and material heading to the front lines towards Vietnam.... saw lots of trucks with corpses and wounded returning.  

 

The problem is that the PLA is a paper-tiger.  No combat experience, antiquated command structures, many joining the PLA for political purposes, unproven military technology, etc.  Considering how many soldiers are the only child/son of many families and outrage there will be once casualties starts going up.... the Chinese military is pretty paralyzed.  

 

Okinawa is just a stone throw away.  If China goes on the offensive and bombs Japanese territory.... it will really escalate the conflict even more.  Japan spends as much on its "Self-defense force" as the UK or France spends on their militaries.  

At one point going into the PLA was a meal ticket for those who didn't want to farm. There is a whole other facet of Chinese life that we in the West do not really know about. I remember reading about Tiananmen Square massacre. The troops in Bejing refused to obey CCP orders to clear the Square. Many actually joined the protest. The CCP brought troops in from another district and isolated them from the city and spent 2 weeks indoctrinating them before taking them to the Square. Over 10,000 killed.  

[taxi]

On 12/23/2020 at 3:46 PM, 6of1_halfdozenofother said:

The same could be said for pretty much any western nation.  Historically, the biggest reason why people have gone to war has been access of markets to conduct trade.  I could see that being a reason why the States would go to war over HK and/or Taiwan - if they somehow feel that access to those markets (and the markets those areas serve, such as China) were irreversibly hindered.

There would be a cost benefit analysis there. What possible market could HK or Taiwan have that would justify starting a global war with the world's 2nd biggest superpower? If China began to do thins like invade Malaysia and the Philippines, cutting off global shipping lanes, that could be another matter.

[King Heffy]

On 12/24/2020 at 9:22 AM, Boudrias said:

At one point going into the PLA was a meal ticket for those who didn't want to farm. There is a whole other facet of Chinese life that we in the West do not really know about. I remember reading about Tiananmen Square massacre. The troops in Bejing refused to obey CCP orders to clear the Square. Many actually joined the protest. The CCP brought troops in from another district and isolated them from the city and spent 2 weeks indoctrinating them before taking them to the Square. Over 10,000 killed.  

Classmate of mine is now an officer in the PLA.  Really smart, educated in Canadian university, just one of the best ways to get ahead over there.  At the end of the day it's a job and sets you up well for the future.   They're normal people, just like soldiers of all nationalities.

Edited December 31, 2020 by King Heffy

[Boudrias]

12 hours ago, King Heffy said:

Classmate of mine is now an officer in the PLA.  Really smart, educated in Canadian university, just one of the best ways to get ahead over there.  At the end of the day it's a job and sets you up well for the future.   They're normal people, just like soldiers of all nationalities.

When I was in China back in the '90's I met a fellow who was guiding tourists like me. Very bright. Son of a Chinese doctor and military man. He was quite open about the obstacles faced by ordinary people to make a living. Both his parents had been re-educated during the Cultural Revolution. Back then the CCP had a dual currency system. They had consumer goods stores that only accepted foreign currency. Being able to 'acquire' foreign currency was a prime opportunity to get ahead. My tourist 'friend' was very good at his job, a pleasure to be around, but his main objective in being with us was to acquire our foreign money. He offered to convert our money to Chinese funds and when the trip was winding up he asked us to tip him in USD if we were so inclined. He did well by us that day. Not that I would likely recognize this fellow but I always thought I would see him in the Chinese government one day. 

 

"They're normal people" is so true. Most people suffer the politics of their countries because they have to. You do what you have to do to support your family and hope for a better future. There has been so much suffering in China down thru the years and they have been victimized by foreigners for hundreds of years. As I say to my kids and grandkids until you have starved you have no idea of what many people have to do to live. 

[nuckin_futz]

Reports that a US lawyer has been arrested in Hong Kong

Wed 6 Jan 2021 03:55:42 GMT

 

If so that would be a sharp escalation in tensions between the US and China

US lawyer John Clancey has been placed under arrest according to a colleague. 

 

********************

 

Adding to their collection. Maybe he can keep the 2 Michaels company.

 

[Me_]

On 6/10/2019 at 7:14 PM, Violator said:

Just waiting for the day that china wipes out taiwan.Dont think its gonna be very long till it happens.

I would’ve said that had Trump gotten re-elected.

 

However, with Biden being a recognizable face Internationally, I see a getting back to the same ententes which existed pre-Trump;

 

China doesn’t let North Korea build a nuclear device, otherwise the US attacks North Korea,

 

The US doesn’t let Taiwan declare independence, otherwise China attacks Taiwan.

 

[Lancaster]

2 minutes ago, Me_ said:

I would’ve said that had Trump gotten re-elected.

 

However, with Biden being a recognizable face Internationally, I see a getting back to the same ententes which existed pre-Trump;

 

China doesn’t let North Korea build a nuclear device, otherwise the US attacks North Korea,

 

The US doesn’t let Taiwan declare independence, otherwise China attacks Taiwan.

 

Considering the moves Trump made against China.... I trust him over Biden in protecting Taiwan sovereignty.  

There's a reason that Trump called Tsai Ing-wen for his first official diplomatic call.  

 

In regards to North Korea, they already have nukes.... but it was aided by the previous Chinese regime.... the group that Xinnie the Pooh is currently still purging.  

 

If I'm the USA... I'd immediately set up THAAD on Yonaguni Island to "protect" USAF Okinawa bases.  Yonaguni to Taiwan is like Vancouver to Bellingham.  

Just do the same strategy the Chinese are doing.... create a problem when there isn't, then ask for a compromise after.  

[Lancaster]

4 hours ago, 6of1_halfdozenofother said:

Well, looks like the ccp firewall is laying down its first bricks in HK.

 

Original announcement (in Chinese):

 

  Hide contents

 

Original announcement (in English):

 

  Hide contents

 

There was some investigation done by the media, and there were unconfirmed reports that this was an action made by the police, to request (compel) local HK ISPs to block all IP traffic from HK Chronicles' web server.

 

It doesn't require stretching the imagination that much to conclude that eventually this will also happen for media sites and potentially even search engines - the precedent is now set, so it's not a matter of if, but when.

VPN is increasingly becoming a necessity...

[Boudrias]

16 hours ago, Lancaster said:

VPN is increasingly becoming a necessity...

Lancaster I threw out the idea that Taiwan already has a nuclear deterrent a while back. You didn’t comment. I cannot imagine that this has not happened as conventional warfare cannot save them from a CCP invasion. 

[Lancaster]

8 hours ago, Boudrias said:

Lancaster I threw out the idea that Taiwan already has a nuclear deterrent a while back. You didn’t comment. I cannot imagine that this has not happened as conventional warfare cannot save them from a CCP invasion. 

They were working on one a few decades back, but I think one of the conditions of the One-China Policy is that Taiwan stopped developing nukes.  Nukes would mean immediate Chinese invasion and the the US not getting involved.  The US will only back Taiwan if Taiwan has no nukes.  Kind of stupid IMO.  

[The Lock]

2 hours ago, Lancaster said:

They were working on one a few decades back, but I think one of the conditions of the One-China Policy is that Taiwan stopped developing nukes.  Nukes would mean immediate Chinese invasion and the the US not getting involved.  The US will only back Taiwan if Taiwan has no nukes.  Kind of stupid IMO.  

To be fair, I don't really know if it would benefit Taiwan to have nukes at this point anyway. I'm sure things were different a few decades back mind you.

 

Thinking about this day and age, I think it's more a diplomacy game than anything. China constantly loaning the world money to buy favour among other tactics I think could potentially be far more of a threat than the nukes themselves.

[Lancaster]

Just now, The Lock said:

To be fair, I don't really know if it would benefit Taiwan to have nukes at this point anyway. I'm sure things were different a few decades back mind you.

 

Thinking about this day and age, I think it's more a diplomacy game than anything. China constantly loaning the world money to buy favour among other tactics I think could potentially be far more of a threat than the nukes themselves.

Well... it would probably be like a "Dead Hand's Switch".... that worst case scenario, Taiwan will fall, but Beijing and/or Shanghai suddenly will be a parking lot.  

That's also a reason why North Korea have nukes.  That no matter what happens, they can always have Seoul off the map in an instance. 

Also a reason why Japan is de facto a nuclear weapon state as well.  They have the knowledge, technology and material to manufacture nuclear weapon within months if they choose to do.  They so much weapons grade nuclear material in the country, that "peaceful purposes" wouldn't be able to use them all for a long time.  

 

Having nukes is like an Accidental Life Insurance policy... you hope it will never be used, but would take care of business should the unfortunate happens.  Relying on allies for protection isn't a bad idea.... like NATO, S.Korea-USA Mutual Defense Treaty, Japan-US Security Alliance, etc... where it's a legal treaty and the assistance goes both ways. 

The Taiwan Relations Act, it's a bit more ambiguous.  It only states that "the United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capabilities"..... not quite the "attack on one is an attack on all" summarization of Article 5 of NATO.  

 

China has already chipped away at countries that once recognized Taiwan.  No international organization is safe from the CCP's reach.  I think even some International Bird Watcher's Society or something was forced to removed Taiwan as a member due to the pressure from the PRC.  That's how far they are reaching.  

[Boudrias]

13 hours ago, Lancaster said:

Well... it would probably be like a "Dead Hand's Switch".... that worst case scenario, Taiwan will fall, but Beijing and/or Shanghai suddenly will be a parking lot.  

That's also a reason why North Korea have nukes.  That no matter what happens, they can always have Seoul off the map in an instance. 

Also a reason why Japan is de facto a nuclear weapon state as well.  They have the knowledge, technology and material to manufacture nuclear weapon within months if they choose to do.  They so much weapons grade nuclear material in the country, that "peaceful purposes" wouldn't be able to use them all for a long time.  

 

Having nukes is like an Accidental Life Insurance policy... you hope it will never be used, but would take care of business should the unfortunate happens.  Relying on allies for protection isn't a bad idea.... like NATO, S.Korea-USA Mutual Defense Treaty, Japan-US Security Alliance, etc... where it's a legal treaty and the assistance goes both ways. 

The Taiwan Relations Act, it's a bit more ambiguous.  It only states that "the United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capabilities"..... not quite the "attack on one is an attack on all" summarization of Article 5 of NATO.  

 

China has already chipped away at countries that once recognized Taiwan.  No international organization is safe from the CCP's reach.  I think even some International Bird Watcher's Society or something was forced to removed Taiwan as a member due to the pressure from the PRC.  That's how far they are reaching.  

My suggestion of Taiwan nuclear deterrence is based on the idea that the Taiwanese might not hold a lot of hope that the USA will have time to support them or the willingness to support them if the PLA invades. I don't know of any country who values their sovereignty relying on another country to defend it. History has many examples of that mistake. Israel was faced with the same situation and they questioned whether the USA would back them. Israel now has nuclear weapons. China backs Iran. Would the Israeli's help the Taiwanese out? Would India? The Ukraine supposedly had a number of nucs unaccounted for post independence. Pakistan?  

[nuckin_futz]

Reuters is reporting that China plans a further Hong Kong crackdown

Tue 12 Jan 2021 04:44:26 GMT

 

Reuters citing two unnamed sources "with direct knowledge of China's plans".

• While stressing that plans haven't been finalized, the individuals said it was possible that Hong Kong elections - already postponed until September on coronavirus grounds - could face reforms that one person said were aimed at reducing the influence of democrats.

Here is the link for more. It all sounds a bit thin though. 

[Gawdzukes]

Lancaster know nothing

 

Hong Kong still alive non believer kid child

Edited March 2, 2021 by Gawdzukes

[Lancaster]

8 hours ago, Gawdzukes said:

Lancaster know nothing

 

Hong Kong still alive non believer kid child

What the heck are you on?

[4petesake]

12 minutes ago, Lancaster said:

What the heck are you on?