[Trade] Lightning trade J.T. Miller to Canucks for Marek Mazanec, 2019 3rd-round pick, 2020 conditional 1st-round pick

[ForsbergTheGreat]

6 hours ago, Silver Ghost said:

I didn't say they were going to trade core players lol. 

 

They could have traded pretty much anyone other than their core group that had a bigger cap hit to achieve a similar result. They chose a guy thaf could get them a reasonable return that was reasonably expendable to their team. Notice i saud TO THEIR TEAM. Doesnt make him an expendable or throwaway player. I am positive the Lightning wish they could have kept him. 

 

Not really Kucherov and miller were the only two players making over 2 million that don’t have a NTC or NMC. And they for sure aren’t trading the leagues leading scorer. That basically summed up which player was getting dealt

 

Whether anyone wants to accept it or not bolts needed to move cap out. Point is going to get a huge raise and vaseliskiy is up for an extension as of July 1st. They are a team strapped for cash even after letting stralman walk and getting a pass on Callahan.

 

Miller was the lowest man on the totem block and he wasn’t being effectively used to his potential either simply due to bolts depth. Which makes sense on why they were moving him. 

 

Did bolts get top value for him. For sure they did. They were able to take a negative situation and walk away with a big smile. Could canucks have paid less. Possibly, but I don’t know if it’s worth splitting hairs over. 

 

 

[aGENT]

7 hours ago, Hutton Wink said:

What is the normal value of a top-6 C/W in his prime putting up 50-60 points and locked up for 4 years at $5.25mil?  Right now, straight-up if you wanted to trade for one?  Certainly more than a future conditional first round pick and a current third.

As I said a couple pages ago, Miller under that contract, is likely worth a first, a solid prospect and a 3rd/4th +/- under 'normal' circumstances.

 

So we saved on the prospect IMO by only giving up a throw away goalie instead.

Edited June 25, 2019 by aGENT

[Maddogy]

I agree with Jim that in terms of rebuild you can not just keep sucking and drafting and accumulating assets. Winnipeg, Colorado, Florida, Edmonton, Buffalo have not won a thing. You also do not want to waste the prime of Horvat's career the way Buffalo did to Ryan O'Reilly. 

 

However, Jim needs to be patient. He has time to wait and see. Do not overpay in trades or free agent signings. Patience pays off. 

[Silver Ghost]

1 hour ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

 

Not really Kucherov and miller were the only two players making over 2 million that don’t have a NTC or NMC. And they for sure aren’t trading the leagues leading scorer. That basically summed up which player was getting dealt

 

Whether anyone wants to accept it or not bolts needed to move cap out. Point is going to get a huge raise and vaseliskiy is up for an extension as of July 1st. They are a team strapped for cash even after letting stralman walk and getting a pass on Callahan.

 

Miller was the lowest man on the totem block and he wasn’t being effectively used to his potential either simply due to bolts depth. Which makes sense on why they were moving him. 

 

Did bolts get top value for him. For sure they did. They were able to take a negative situation and walk away with a big smile. Could canucks have paid less. Possibly, but I don’t know if it’s worth splitting hairs over. 

 

 

They easily could have moved a player in spite of a ntc though. Miller was the easiest option for sure but probably only because he could return something decent while also shedding cap space.

 

I don't think the Canucks could have paid much less tbh. They really didn't pay a super high price with all the conditions on that pick. It was fair value imo, even considering TB cap situation. 

[BPA]

42 minutes ago, Maddogy said:

I agree with Jim that in terms of rebuild you can not just keep sucking and drafting and accumulating assets. Winnipeg, Colorado, Florida, Edmonton, Buffalo have not won a thing. You also do not want to waste the prime of Horvat's career the way Buffalo did to Ryan O'Reilly. 

 

However, Jim needs to be patient. He has time to wait and see. Do not overpay in trades or free agent signings. Patience pays off. 

I don't think JB has time to wait and see.  He still is without an extension.   So kinda like a lame duck GM.  I think JB is under the gun to make the playoffs. 

[189lb enforcers?]

9 hours ago, CaptainLinden16 said:

You are taking way to broad of a stroke here and so is the author comparing from 2007 onward is really misleading as it has too many variables.  We are talking about multiple regimes.  You can't possibly pin bad drafting pre 2014 on Jimbo.

 

Whats interesting to note in these numbers too is a team like Edmonton in the top 5.  A team like Colorado in the top 5.  A team like the New York Islanders in the top 5.  These are three of the worst teams.  Terrible teams.  Drafting high skews this data significantly.  Hedman and Stamkos also significantly skew the data for TB and you know where they drafted (1 and 2).

 

Also the 2014 draft is rated worst when its arguably the best Demko, Tryamkin, Virtanen, McCann, Frosling.  It is too early to call it crap.  Based off of his statistical rankings it is the 2nd worst draft in the whole NHL for that year.  I would really disagree.

 

This is definitely using statistics to lie.  This guy is using numbers to fit an argument rather than having them explain one.

 

Fairly convenient article for the conversation though.  Well spotted!

 

The guy says himself!:

The total WAR table, which is a mere aggregation blind to unitization or expected draft value by pick selection, looks as follows

 

of course a 1st overall pick in Stamkos, McDavid, Tavares etc... will have the highest WAR scores.

You’re doing that ass u me thing again by guessing at my intentions, even those of Yost now. I don’t think you even realize it, so I’m not going to stay on that. 

 

For your comments though, I get what you are saying, but I am convinced that there is another reason why you can’t concede the point about Tampa having a vastly superior record to the Canucks, for drafting past the second round, which has entirely been my point.

 

I think the article is much more than a simple conversational piece and addition to the convo, as you’ve put it. 

 

As I’ve said, THN Draft Edition has a separate breakdown on this topic and the Canucks are still awful, at 29th OA. Because that one is done since 2000, I think that gives enough time for each club to have, as I’ve said, go through multiple boom and bust roster phases, or rebuilds. 

 

Your point is that having a Hedman and Stamkos skews the data and the results are a lie. I disagree.

 

There are enough Top Canuck picks to balance out Yost’s Article, at least slightly. For THN’s, it’s all after the 2nd round... and the results are basically the same. I don’t think your argument is valid, hence this final note. 

 

Looking from multiple angles, the Canucks - not JB as you seem to always think the point is - are terrible at drafting past the 2nd round, and worse when using Yost’s “lies”. This is not a subjective agenda or narrative. 

 

Stats can be used to spin a narrative for sure, no doubt about it. We see it all the time in the Mainstream Media. Normally, I’d agree, but there is no bias in play here. Arguing that it’s too early to judge goes both ways and you can bet that in 5 or 10 years Tampa will be complaining about their poor representation in such a moving comparison, as they will surely be in rebuild mode by then.

 

Subjectively, I very much doubt that in that time the Canucks will move into the top 5-10 in these stats. 

Edited June 25, 2019 by 189lb enforcers?

[189lb enforcers?]

13 hours ago, Kanukfanatic said:

Christian Fischer - had never heard of him. On Arizona, 6'2" 214, only 18 points in 71 games this year. Sounds like Virtanen but not as many points. Not sure where he would fit.

 

I want nothing to do with Perry......yuck 

Playoff hockey.

Our current roster still isn’t ready for it. 

[Baggins]

9 hours ago, Smashian Kassian said:

Well how do you know that they had a first rounder they could've gotten immediately??

Because I see him as worth a bottom third first with a later pick. Any GM would be thrilled to to get a player like him in the bottom half.

 

9 hours ago, Smashian Kassian said:

I should've added 1st "from a non playoff team". And yes because they were up against a cap wall. And Its not just up against a cap wall, JT Miller's NTC was just about to kick in too. For them to make this move before that complicated matters is huge. 

 

Not only did they get the salary relief they desperately needed, they got a premium in return.  They didn't have to give up any value on Miller in a move they needed to make. Thats absolutely a home-run.

 

Like we're talking about a mid/late first being fair value from our end, and fair enough. From the Tampa Bay side that's worst case scenario. There's still another side to it where this pick could be much better than just fair value. 

When that first is delivered we may well be a playoff team.

 

So as a GM you would pass on a player, you would love to have, and let another GM have him for less than actual value because the team trading him needs to move cap? That would make you a fool. As owner I'd be asking why you let another team get that player you need for peanuts. It's not like we overpaid on this deal, which is often the case when a team isn't under any pressure to move a player that you want.

 

The only way Tampa gets better than fair value is by waiting two years to get it. It's a possible, unlikely imo, reward in exchange for waiting.

[Gurn]

4 hours ago, mll said:

Subban was injured most of the season and was never able to get going.

Who wants an injured player?

Anyone that has moaned and groaned about injuries to Sutter, Beagle, Baertschi, Edler and Tanev had better tread carefully with their opinion about acquiring Subban.

[Noble 6]

 

So Benning didn't even try to pay less.

[Maketherightmove]

2 minutes ago, gurn said:

Who wants an injured player?

Anyone that has moaned and groaned about injuries to Sutter, Beagle, Baertschi, Edler and Tanev had better tread carefully with their opinion about acquiring Subban.

Comparing Subban, who has only had one season with less than 65 games played (7 years ago) to Sutter, Baer & Tanev who can't stay healthy is a bit ridiculous. 

[oldnews]

37 minutes ago, Silver Ghost said:

They easily could have moved a player in spite of a ntc though. Miller was the easiest option for sure but probably only because he could return something decent while also shedding cap space.

 

I don't think the Canucks could have paid much less tbh. They really didn't pay a super high price with all the conditions on that pick. It was fair value imo, even considering TB cap situation. 

Exactly.

 

Realistically, Tampa had about a handful of players in the middle six, 14/15 minute range, making in the 5 million range.

 

Johnson

Palat

Gourde

Killorn

 

They also have Callahan, who'd cost them an asset to move - if he would even waive.

And for perspective, they have Stamkos making 8.5 million, playing a relatively moderate 18 minutes a night. 

That's the kind of depth they have, so I think people tend to misread the quality of a guy who may 'only' be playing 14/15 minutes.

 

Of those 4 guys above, Miller is the youngest, MIller is the most versatile, Miller plays the heaviest game among them (and is the biggest) -and all things considered his terms/contract is also probably the best of the four.   They all scored in the 48, 47, 47, 40 pt range - while Palat was at 59% ozone starts (fewer games, but far more opportune minutes), Johnson likewise was up at 53.7% ozone starts (with weaker underlying numbers), with Gourde and Killorn arguably in comparable range of minutes and 'possession' numbers.

 

When you look cumulatively, and factor in that MIller is also a center/winger capable of playing any forward position, he is arguably the best asset of the lot - and the price paid for him is imo an opportune one - not an overpayment at all - not a 'steal' but imo they did take advantage of Tampa's circumstances, and moved quickly before Tampa moved cap in an alternative form.  People can argue whether or not he's 'better' than a Palat - imo he is, but more importantly he's a better fit, who brings the range of attributes they needed, in addition to being a guy that plays with an edge and will jump an opponent if they take liberties on his linemates.

 

I'm not in the crowd that wants the team to go all-in on a playoff birth this coming season - ownership might lean slightly that way for financial reasons (although even there I think there's probably a consensus to remain measured) -  but I'm strongly in favour of this move, while I think they should remain relatively conservative otherwise, particularly in the free agent market.

 

 

[aGENT]

I've said this for years....

 

Take any opportunity to improve your long term team, whether by draft, FA or trade. Build. 

 

Play the games and finish where you finish.

 

Draft where you draft. 

 

This was one of those opportunities.

[oldnews]

14 hours ago, Kanukfanatic said:

Christian Fischer - had never heard of him. On Arizona, 6'2" 214, only 18 points in 71 games this year. Sounds like Virtanen but not as many points. Not sure where he would fit.

 

I want nothing to do with Perry......yuck 

Fisher might have production like Virtanen at this point - in considerably easier minutes than Virtanen (who should not be sandbagged either - he's been playing a lot of matchup minutes with Sutter and rounding out a two way NHL game) - Fischer is also a young guy with size, plays a physical game, and he's talented / shouldn't be judged to quickly on production alone.  He did have 15 goals, 33 pts as a rookie - and a very strong AHL rookie campaign as a 19 year old.  He's not as good a player without the puck as Virtanen is at this point, but he could be an interesting option to put on the Pearson Horvat line, particularly if the bottom six remains relatively healthy.  If that's the case, Horvat's line will enjoy some pretty good opportunities, not having to divide into dual/shutdown role as they did in the absence of Sutter/Beagle last year.  Fischer added to a Horvat Pearson line - could be a pretty difficult line to handle, and possibly upticks nicely there.  He bounced around a lot of linemates in Arizona last year - with very little opportunity that would be comparable to playing with Horvat.

 

It would come down to whether the price makes sense - because the Canucks do have a number of guys that could step into that role and probably give comparable production, and have drafted Podkolzin who's likely to step into that spot in a few years, but I think regardless, Fischer would probably make better sense than a number of the current options.  If you could get him for a Goldobin swap, or even as a principal for Baertschi, I think you definitely move Goldobin for him, and possibly Baertschi although you may take a step back in shorter term competitiveness in that case (depends on the intended time frame).   The catch there is that with Podkolzin in the system, they might lean towards the more competitive short term guy in the meantime?

 

 

[kanucks25]

Anybody still arguing 5 years later after all the trades Benning has made that he's a shrewd or creative negotiator or can take advantage when other teams are strapped for one reason or another is either delusional or a team plant.

 

Not once has he utilized cap space to gain assets during the rebuild.

Not once has he taken advantage of a team that's needed to shed cap.

Not once has he finagled his way into an impact player (top-6 F or top-4 D) 

 

Benning paid a fair price for Miller (assuming the 1st rounder we eventually give up isn't a lottery pick). It wasn't a gross overpay, but it wouldn't surprise me if a more cunning GM could have got it done for cheaper given the circumstances surrounding both teams (our cap space and Tampa's lack of it).

 

Hopefully Miller does well, he's been a 55 point player over the past 3 seasons and he's going to be playing with a good center in our top-6. I can see him easily playing up to his cap-hit and thensome. There's no doubt that he gives us something we don't have and makes us better while not having a contract that'll we'll be looking to shed eventually.

 

Just pray that this team takes legit steps over the next 2 seasons and we don't end up losing out on a superstar.

 

Edited June 25, 2019 by kanucks25

[PhillipBlunt]

I’m not so sure about this trade anymore. It seems like a steep price to pay for the player acquired. 

 

Could Benning have not packaged that 1st rounder with a couple of roster player for a defenseman who could have fit into the top four? 

 

The margin for error with this trade could be a headache. Hopefully not. 

[oldnews]

30 minutes ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

So Benning didn't even try to pay less.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 25, 2019 by oldnews

[Gurn]

19 minutes ago, Maketherightmove said:

Comparing Subban, who has only had one season with less than 65 games played (7 years ago) to Sutter, Baer & Tanev who can't stay healthy is a bit ridiculous. 

"one season with less than 65 games played (7 years ago)"

 

 He played 63 games last year and in fact has three seasons of less than 70 games and five with less than 80

 Subban is a broken and the decline d man with personality problems I don't want him any where near this team.

He has only played 82 games three times in his career due to injuries. 

 

So yes he is comparable to Sutter, Baer and Tanev.

[Maketherightmove]

3 minutes ago, PhillipBlunt said:

I’m not so sure about this trade anymore. It seems like a steep price to pay for the player acquired. 

 

Could Benning have not packaged that 1st rounder with a couple of roster player for a defenseman who could have fit into the top four? 

 

The margin for error with this trade could be a headache. Hopefully not. 

That's the part that frustrates me. I'd much rather he try to use the 1st & 3rd along with other assets to acquire a true top 4 D rather than grossly overpay Myers, which looks like it is very likely to happen at this point. Maybe he did try and no one liked the Canucks' assets that they were willing to move. 

[Maketherightmove]

1 minute ago, gurn said:

"one season with less than 65 games played (7 years ago)"

 

 He played 63 games last year and in fact has three seasons of less than 70 games and five with less than 80

 Subban is a broken and the decline d man with personality problems I don't want him any where near this team.

He has only played 82 games three times in his career due to injuries. 

 

So yes he is comparable to Sutter, Baer and Tanev.

I didn't say I wanted him on this team, but your comparisons are ridiculous.