Trajectory of This 50th Season

[Nuxfanabroad]

After the first tilt in Edm, took a few mins to peruse the 2019-20 schedule(I'd only glanced a coupla' months back)..certainly looks a far sight better than last yr's! We posters all utter(or hear) the cliches, "2 pts is the same in Oct, or Spring", or the old, "pace yerself, NHL season's a marathon". Two maxims that almost stand in contrast..this yr I'd contend the team's better to approach this from the latter perspective.

 

Marathon(42.195 k's) runners often aim for a "negative split", where the latter half(21 km's) is quicker than your first. Not many actually DO it..far easier to just talk about! Similarly on the pro ice, we often see the strong contenders closing out seasons on a sweet roll, as PO's arrive. To peak at the perfect time, seems a well-crafted, balanced art.

 

Our sched is nicely spread out, the first few months. The daunting aspect is 17 roadies out of the first 27 tilts(to end-Nov). To get through these first two months at about .500 seems a reasonable target, & I'd wager it would bode well to set up a strong 2nd half. December's a gem, with 10 out of 13 games at home, & the guys should appreciate less travel over that holiday season. At New Year's it's an even 40 games in, 20/20 split road & home.

 

So then, how many pts do you feel is necessary after game #40, to make PO's a realistic bid? (I feel we need at LEAST 45 pts at that given time)

Edited October 4, 2019 by Nuxfanabroad
27 not 29, end Nov

[BrockBoester]

If we're at 50+ at the halfway point (41 games played) we'll be good to go I think.

 

So something like 22-13-6. I say it's more than feasible.

 

But I'm an optimist!

 

[-AJ-]

45 points would obviously pro-rate to 90 points if we're using the 41-game mark. Most of the time 90 points is too low to get into the playoffs. The safer bet is 93-95 points as the bottom wildcard teams. If we're at 45 points, we'd at least be looking at a significant improvement probably, but we'd need to be even better probably to make the playoffs.

[Nuxfanabroad]

15 minutes ago, -AJ- said:

45 points would obviously pro-rate to 90 points if we're using the 41-game mark. Most of the time 90 points is too low to get into the playoffs. The safer bet is 93-95 points as the bottom wildcard teams. If we're at 45 points, we'd at least be looking at a significant improvement probably, but we'd need to be even better probably to make the playoffs.

Indeed, & that's where the strong second half would come in. I think they have the depth to do it this way.

 

In the last 50, 60 games I hope we get to see Baer, Bulldog, Big Mac, OJ, Brise & Rafferty for decent stretches. With Motte & Rouss also in store, we sure have some numbers if needed.

Edited October 4, 2019 by Nuxfanabroad

[timberz21]

With the offseason acquisition I expected the Canucks to be better than last season, more specifically, be better in the 2nd half of the season.   I wasn't expecting the Canucks to come out of the gate like crazy.   It takes time for the new chemistry with Ferland, Myers and Miller to really get rolling.  PP will also take a while to get going I believe.  Also EP is playing with Ferland (new player) and Boeser, who both missed significant pre-season time.  So it might take a while for them to really get going at the level we are expecting.  

 

While you always want to be chase rather than chasing when it comes to the playoffs. I wouldn't be surprise it the Canucks end up in the latter situation.  If they can stay slighty above .500 for the first half (41-45 pts), i'm expecting a better 2nd half (50pts).  Will that be enough in the end, that is a good question, but I expect the Canucks to be there until the end, instead of being out in February or at Trade Deadline like in the past.

[theo5789]

As St Louis had shown, you could be bottom of the league until near the halfway point of the season and still take it all. As long as the team peaks at the right time, that's all that matters.

 

We did look sluggish in Edmonton, but that's probably because the team flew in early. The key is to stay out of Edmonton as long as possible and just fly in for the game and immediately out. Seemed to work in preseason.

[189lb enforcers?]

Injuries are coming.

Get the points while we can!

 

It might be a slow start here with all the new and bigger bodies, both are reasons early success might not come.

 

 

[Glug Datt]

having not really examining the sched, I'd hope the boys run at .500 till the all star break and maybe at .700 from then on.. this gives a shot at making the playoffs with confidence and hopefully winning some games. 

[BrockBoester]

6 hours ago, theo5789 said:

 The key is to stay out of Edmonton as long as possible and just fly in for the game and immediately out.

This is actually pretty good general life advice, as well!

[GritGrinder]

Since the 2005 lockout and subsequent re-alignments etc. the benchmark # of points to be 8th or higher in either conference has been 95pts. Yes, I know there have been a few outliers for a few seasons, but go back and look at how often the avg. of 95pts is whats needed. So the formula is simple:

 

You need 12pts for every 10 games played.

That puts you at 96pts with the final 2 games of the season to either solidify your spot or push into the final spot(s).

So after each 10 game stretch see where the Canucks are at point wise.

12 and they right on track for a WC.

Higher and they are on track for a top 3 division finish.

Lower and anywhere from 9th to 15th is in play.

5-3-2 every 10 games...does that really seem that hard to do..?

Edited October 4, 2019 by GritGrinder

[Nuxfanabroad]

5 minutes ago, GritGrinder said:

 

5-3-2 every 10 games...does that really seem that hard to do..?

November could upset that apple cart, right off the hop. Ten tough road tests out of 15 games. We could certainly see a Nov, Dec roller coaster scenario.

 

With this much team turnover, & the early road challenge, it all leads to the possibility of the "negative split" being our PO entry.

[GritGrinder]

Just now, Nuxfanabroad said:

November could upset that apple cart, right off the hop. Ten tough road tests out of 15 games. We could certainly see a Nov, Dec roller coaster scenario.

 

With this much team turnover, & the early road challenge, it all leads to the possibility of the "negative split" being our PO entry.

Agreed, that's why every point the Canucks can get in Oct. are even more important. People here keep saying the loss the other night was just one game...BS...putting points in the bank now helps to mitigate the "roller coaster scenario". The Oilers were sloppy and Canucks should have gotten at least a point, I don't foresee teams taking TWO Too Many Men penalties in March like the Oil did opening night as a gift the Canucks didn't capitalize on. Go look at the final standings from last year and tell the Coyotes and Habs that a couple of losses early on don't mean anything.

[Nuxfanabroad]

6 minutes ago, GritGrinder said:

Agreed, that's why every point the Canucks can get in Oct. are even more important. People here keep saying the loss the other night was just one game...BS...putting points in the bank now helps to mitigate the "roller coaster scenario". The Oilers were sloppy and Canucks should have gotten at least a point, I don't foresee teams taking TWO Too Many Men penalties in March like the Oil did opening night as a gift the Canucks didn't capitalize on. Go look at the final standings from last year and tell the Coyotes and Habs that a couple of losses early on don't mean anything.

I appreciate what you're saying, but a new team needs some rope..some leeway to get the ball rolling.

 

We can go back over past seasons & find examples of teams that missed by early squandered points, yet there are others that surge, & eke their way in.

 

The main premise relates here: any true contender(worth their salt) will view a mid-season pts deficit as a challenge to overcome. They'll have the wherewithall, & find a way. They'll utilize such trajectory as momentum, rolling as the PO's get going. We could be this type of team in 2019-20, I believe.

[Nuxfanabroad]

We'll get the ball rolling at home.

[Nuxfanabroad]

I'm hardly gonna look at our record until about late Nov(usually just to note below/above .500). The Jersey tilt was frustrating, but I'm just gonna view these games separately, & not be all wound up about how it affects record/seasonal-context.

 

We prob need at least 15, 20 tilts to know what we've got here.

[Bertorama]

Silver lining outlook. 

 

The Canucks are a tight checking road team should be a close split in November.  We are a better team at home of course so far early though.

 

I forsee a split in November maybe even -1 or -2 off the split. Call out on the Week Vrs Ana/SJ in California After the Kings mid week are key upcoming sets we need a few wins 2 of 3 would be best . Those road games should be easier to play at full capability short trips same time zone not a lot of wear and tear. 
 

December is crazy good 7 home games Against the east coast and they typically don’t bode well out west I would want to also dig in and see do those east teams get us tail end of the west coast swing or up front. I prefer tail end of course when they are worn down. 
 

Just my thoughts. I’m not sure a point total Needs to be.  I just want to come out splitting points or better against California Teams in our pacific Division. 

Edited October 20, 2019 by Bertorama

[iceman64]

On 10/4/2019 at 8:26 AM, 189lb enforcers? said:

Injuries are coming.

Get the points while we can!

 

It might be a slow start here with all the new and bigger bodies, both are reasons early success might not come.

 

 

Well maybe, maybe not.. usually that's the case but for a change we actually have some depth..  

 

[Nuxfanabroad]

On 10/4/2019 at 6:02 PM, Nuxfanabroad said:

 

Our sched is nicely spread out, the first few months. The daunting aspect is 17 roadies out of the first 27 tilts(to end-Nov). To get through these first two months at about .500 seems a reasonable target, & I'd wager it would bode well to set up a strong 2nd half. December's a gem, with 10 out of 13 games at home, & the guys should appreciate less travel over that holiday season. At New Year's it's an even 40 games in, 20/20 split road & home.

 

So then, how many pts do you feel is necessary after game #40, to make PO's a realistic bid? (I feel we need at LEAST 45 pts at that given time)

I'm going back to this above^ way of thinking..The longer view. To watch the team with heightened aspirations is too hard on the ticker! When our start was surprisingly strong, we all might have begun to expect too much.

 

At the end of the day, landing a 2020 1st(if they miss PO's) is fine consolation. The keys are youth, & moving on(might take a yr or two) from a cap-crunch.

[Smashian Kassian]

Oh good

[Nuxfanabroad]

On 10/21/2019 at 1:36 AM, Bertorama said:

Silver lining outlook. 

 

The Canucks are a tight checking road team should be a close split in November.  We are a better team at home of course so far early though.

 

I forsee a split in November maybe even -1 or -2 off the split. Call out on the Week Vrs Ana/SJ in California After the Kings mid week are key upcoming sets we need a few wins 2 of 3 would be best . Those road games should be easier to play at full capability short trips same time zone not a lot of wear and tear. 
 

December is crazy good 7 home games Against the east coast and they typically don’t bode well out west I would want to also dig in and see do those east teams get us tail end of the west coast swing or up front. I prefer tail end of course when they are worn down. 
 

Just my thoughts. I’m not sure a point total Needs to be.  I just want to come out splitting points or better against California Teams in our pacific Division. 

You're right, them Cal road games are key. At least we held up down there.