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Canucks 2020-2021 Roster Issues

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The closer we get to the trade deadline, and seeing how players have been performing this year, it is hard not to look forward to next season and how the team is  going to have to choose who to re-sign to stay under the cap.  We have a real possibility of having a worse roster next year than this one.  We can't count on re-signing all our UFAs/RFAs, and also can't count on all the players who are having career years this year matching their output next season.  Even status quo means the talk of making a move for another top 6 winger (unless a pure rental, which Benning has said isn't really their aim), highly unlikely.

 

Unfortunately three of our better success stories are three of the few players needing new contracts (Markstrom, Gaudette, and Virtanen).  If Tanev continues to have a healthy year, that ups his value as well.

We pretty much have to say goodbye to Stecher and Leivo, they will command more than we can afford.  Markstrom is going to get $5.5-6.0 if not more; Virtanen is probably in the $2.25-3.0 range; Gaudette will get a healthy raise of up to a million dollars more; Tanev probably $5 million or more on a short term deal.  That is pretty much all our cap space even assuming a rise of a couple million to the ceiling.  It highlights a critical need to get one of Eriksson; Sutter; or Baertschi off the books just to have enough room that our roster doesn't get worse next season and even have a chance of filling a hole or two.
 

Sutter or Baertschi shouldn't be TOO tough to move, it means adding a sweetener or a prospect or pick.  Eriksson if we can't get him to retire means moving a high pick or a higher prospect like Madden out in order to move... but that should also be on the table since the opportunity cost of not having that cap space will cost us valuable pieces that we have to let go or cost us the ability to make moves to solidify our roster.

We might need Hoglander and one of Juolevi/Rafferty in the lineup just to have cheap ELCs filling roster spots.  None of the math even considers adding a guy like Tryamkin who would cost in the $2-3 million range most likely to have him leave the comfort of the KHL.

(In before the inevitable comments to just sit back and enjoy... am enjoying our current season and how things are going... but it is actually possible to think about more than one thing at the same time).

[Edit: I should have mentioned this too... it is later in the thread but folks might not read that far.  We also are contending with $2-3 million in bonus overages for Petterson and Hughes that will likely be pushed into next year taking more space off the cap than it is projected to rise.  AND we also have to be another $3 million under the cap next year to cover expected ELC bonuses from that year because we can’t afford to push them into the year we have to actually pay Petterson and Hughes ].
 

Edited by Provost
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15 minutes ago, Provost said:

The closer we get to the trade deadline, and seeing how players have been performing this year, it is hard not to look forward to next season and how the team is  going to have to choose who to re-sign to stay under the cap.  We have a real possibility of having a worse roster next year than this one.  We can't count on re-signing all our UFAs/RFAs, and also can't count on all the players who are having career years this year matching their output next season.  Even status quo means the talk of making a move for another top 6 winger (unless a pure rental, which Benning has said isn't really their aim), highly unlikely.

 

Unfortunately three of our better success stories are three of the few players needing new contracts (Markstrom, Gaudette, and Virtanen).  If Tanev continues to have a healthy year, that ups his value as well.

We pretty much have to say goodbye to Stecher and Leivo, they will command more than we can afford.  Markstrom is going to get $5.5-6.0 if not more; Virtanen is probably in the $2.25-3.0 range; Gaudette will get a healthy raise of up to a million dollars more; Tanev probably $5 million or more on a short term deal.  That is pretty much all our cap space even assuming a rise of a couple million to the ceiling.  It highlights a critical need to get one of Eriksson; Sutter; or Baertschi off the books just to have enough room that our roster doesn't get worse next season and even have a chance of filling a hole or two.
 

Sutter or Baertschi shouldn't be TOO tough to move, it means adding a sweetener or a prospect or pick.  Eriksson if we can't get him to retire means moving a high pick or a higher prospect like Madden out in order to move... but that should also be on the table since the opportunity cost of not having that cap space will cost us valuable pieces that we have to let go or cost us the ability to make moves to solidify our roster.

We might need Hoglander and one of Juolevi/Rafferty in the lineup just to have cheap ELCs filling roster spots.  None of the math even considers adding a guy like Tryamkin who would cost in the $2-3 million range most likely to have him leave the comfort of the KHL.

(In before the inevitable comments to just sit back and enjoy... am enjoying our current season and how things are going... but it is actually possible to think about more than one thing at the same time).
 

I don't think this is going to really be an issue. There will be a small increase in the cap over the off season, might only be 1 - 1.5 million again as the escrow continues to reset itself. We have a number of guys dropping off the cap and its likely that we will not have Baerstchi around next season.

 

I think a lot of fans are thinking its going to be a bigger issue than it actually will be.

 

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3 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

I'm not clear on what the problem is... not being able to go big on another UFA? not sure thats such a bad thing, given the risks of free agent signings going sideways quite often.

 

We've also got a ton of talent on ELCs and bridge deals, which is a sign of a successful rebuilding process. 

 

There's 18 mil for next year as things stand today. I don't see either Stech or Tanev coming back, due to Tryamkin very likely coming back. Tanev may walk for nothing if we make the playoffs, but may also be moved if Jim can recover a 1st.

 

Marky - 6

Tryamkin - 3

Rafferty - 1

 

Leaving 8 mil to fill out the bridge deals for Jake, AG and bringing up guys from Utica. 

 

Yes its a bit tight, but not sure we really need to go out and make a free agency splash either. Now if Jim can somehow move Sutter or Loui then great, go shopping but the team can actually improve a bit and stay within the cap for next year imo. 

 

You are taking Tanev, Stecher, and Leivo out of our lineup just to keep under the cap and that is kind of the definition of us getting worse.

$18 million for 10 players:

Markstrom 6
Tanev 5
Virtanen 2.5
Gaudette 1.75

That leaves $2.75 to sign 6 players... maybe bump that up to $4.75 with a cap increase of a couple million.  That also assumes already losing Stecher and Leivo off our roster.  That is also assuming that Virtanen's last month of play is a blip rather than what he will be for the rest of the season... because if he hits 25-30 goals and 50-60 points mostly 5 on 5, that is going to cost a lot more than $2.5 million.

Miller-Petterson-Boeser

Pearson-Horvat-Sutter

Roussel-Gaudette-Virtanen

Ferland-Beagle-Motte

Eriksson-MacEwan

Edler-Myers

Hughes-Tanev

Benn-Rafferty/Juolevi

Brisebois

 

Markstrom

Demko

That roster is a cap team already, it isn't improved at all and certainly isn't adding a top 6 winger, and it doesn't account for fitting the ELC bonus overage pushed into next year or the amount of cushion we need to stay under the cap next year to not push next year's ELCs into 2021-22.

 




 

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Sure we can't keep everyone but I see no reason why we can't continue to improve with new talent coming up on cheap deals.  I see no reason why our young core can't improve individually and we've got new guys on the way up that are showing promise.  No reason for pessimism.  Go Canucks Go!

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23 minutes ago, VegasCanuck said:

I don't think this is going to really be an issue. There will be a small increase in the cap over the off season, might only be 1 - 1.5 million again as the escrow continues to reset itself. We have a number of guys dropping off the cap and its likely that we will not have Baerstchi around next season.

 

I think a lot of fans are thinking its going to be a bigger issue than it actually will be.

 

The math doesn't seem to work like you say, and I don't see how Baertschi falls off without trading him.  He has a limited career at this point and hasn't made so much that he can walk away from millions of dollars.

We have Schaller dropping off who can be replaced for cheaper.  That is a million saved, compared with many millions in raises for current players we would want to re-sign.

Every other player dropping off will require a more expensive replacement (another player or themselves at a raise) as they are providing efficient value for their production.  Maybe we can replace Stecher with a cheaper 3rd pairing D, but it is at at the cost of quality and having a guy that can move up to the top 4 in case of injury.  Do we think we can replace Leivo's projected 40 points for $1.5 million or less?

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2 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

If Eriksson and Baertschi are traded, would they be okay? Benning will get 'er done.  

Sure... that is pretty much the exact point of the post.  

We may have to give up more than folks would want in order to get money off the books.  Virtually everyone would lose their minds if the cost of trading Eriksson was using Madden as a sweetener... but that would be a low cost compared with what Toronto gave up to get out from under a single year of Marleau's contract.  The flexibility it gives us in the next two years would be incredibly significant though, so something like that has to be considered.

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3 minutes ago, Provost said:

Sure... that is pretty much the exact point of the post.  

We may have to give up more than folks would want in order to get money off the books.  Virtually everyone would lose their minds if the cost of trading Eriksson was using Madden as a sweetener... but that would be a low cost compared with what Toronto gave up to get out from under a single year of Marleau's contract.  The flexibility it gives us in the next two years would be incredibly significant though, so something like that has to be considered.

That would be harsh, losing a top prospect like Madden just to unload Loui. But dang, $6mm is a lot of dough off the cap each year for this guy. If the Canucks are solid at C in the Top 9 for the next 10 years (Pettersson/Miller, Horvat and Gaudette), and with the progression of Madden and Focht at C, could they afford to trade a C prospect?    

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23 minutes ago, Crimson said:

That cap recapture from the Luongo deal is screwing us a bit.  I wouldn't be surprised if there is still some behind the scenes work being done to try to clean this up.

Mostly joking, but what if they trade Markstrom or Demko and lure Luongo out of retirement for 1 year as backup?  Then he could earn the money he is costing us and we wouldn't need to spend on somebody else.

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33 minutes ago, Provost said:

You are taking Tanev, Stecher, and Leivo out of our lineup just to keep under the cap and that is kind of the definition of us getting worse.

$18 million for 10 players:

Markstrom 6
Tanev 5
Virtanen 2.5
Gaudette 1.75

That leaves $2.75 to sign 6 players... maybe bump that up to $4.75 with a cap increase of a couple million.  That also assumes already losing Stecher and Leivo off our roster.  That is also assuming that Virtanen's last month of play is a blip rather than what he will be for the rest of the season... because if he hits 25-30 goals and 50-60 points mostly 5 on 5, that is going to cost a lot more than $2.5 million.

Miller-Petterson-Boeser

Pearson-Horvat-Sutter

Roussel-Gaudette-Virtanen

Ferland-Beagle-Motte

Eriksson-MacEwan

Edler-Myers

Hughes-Tanev

Benn-Rafferty/Juolevi

Brisebois

 

Markstrom

Demko

That roster is a cap team already, it isn't improved at all and certainly isn't adding a top 6 winger.

 




 

 

you're determined to have Tanev back.... can you really tell me Nik and Rafferty are a step down from Tanev and Stecher? I like Tanev but its time to move on even if he has a little left in the tank, much like Hamhius. Tanev is having an exceptionally rare year of being injury free btw. 

 

Your cap calc is only a problem if we keep Tanev, which I think is very unlikely and don't agree you can prove thats a step back.

 

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1 minute ago, Jimmy McGill said:

 

you're determined to have Tanev back.... can you really tell me Nik and Rafferty are a step down from Tanev and Stecher? I like Tanev but its time to move on even if he has a little left in the tank, much like Hamhius. Tanev is having an exceptionally rare year of being injury free btw. 

 

Your cap calc is only a problem if we keep Tanev, which I think is very unlikely and don't agree you can prove thats a step back.

 

keiran lee yes GIF

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1 hour ago, Provost said:

The closer we get to the trade deadline, and seeing how players have been performing this year, it is hard not to look forward to next season and how the team is  going to have to choose who to re-sign to stay under the cap.  We have a real possibility of having a worse roster next year than this one.  We can't count on re-signing all our UFAs/RFAs, and also can't count on all the players who are having career years this year matching their output next season.  Even status quo means the talk of making a move for another top 6 winger (unless a pure rental, which Benning has said isn't really their aim), highly unlikely.

 

Unfortunately three of our better success stories are three of the few players needing new contracts (Markstrom, Gaudette, and Virtanen).  If Tanev continues to have a healthy year, that ups his value as well.

We pretty much have to say goodbye to Stecher and Leivo, they will command more than we can afford.  Markstrom is going to get $5.5-6.0 if not more; Virtanen is probably in the $2.25-3.0 range; Gaudette will get a healthy raise of up to a million dollars more; Tanev probably $5 million or more on a short term deal.  That is pretty much all our cap space even assuming a rise of a couple million to the ceiling.  It highlights a critical need to get one of Eriksson; Sutter; or Baertschi off the books just to have enough room that our roster doesn't get worse next season and even have a chance of filling a hole or two.
 

Sutter or Baertschi shouldn't be TOO tough to move, it means adding a sweetener or a prospect or pick.  Eriksson if we can't get him to retire means moving a high pick or a higher prospect like Madden out in order to move... but that should also be on the table since the opportunity cost of not having that cap space will cost us valuable pieces that we have to let go or cost us the ability to make moves to solidify our roster.

We might need Hoglander and one of Juolevi/Rafferty in the lineup just to have cheap ELCs filling roster spots.  None of the math even considers adding a guy like Tryamkin who would cost in the $2-3 million range most likely to have him leave the comfort of the KHL.

(In before the inevitable comments to just sit back and enjoy... am enjoying our current season and how things are going... but it is actually possible to think about more than one thing at the same time).
 

jake and AG will get a modest raise in a 1-2 year bridge deal to show that this season wasn't a one off.  Try, I'm not convinced he's coming back.  I think both BR and OJ are on the roster next season and stetcher is gone.  Pretty sure JB & Co have it all worked out and we should know, by now, to trust them.

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Turnover doesn't mean downgrade. Even with Tanev and Stecher, we did go through a rough patch, so it's not like these are players that make or break our team necessarily. Our biggest loss would be Tanev, but Tryamkin could come in and potentially take over (plays a similar role in the KHL) at the price of a Stecher. Rafferty or a cheap depth signing would replace Stecher. He's all heart, but replaceable. Leivo is replaceable (see MacEwen) for cheaper too. Cap will go up and I'm certain Benning is looking to free up cap without giving up big pieces.

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48 minutes ago, Provost said:

You are taking Tanev, Stecher, and Leivo out of our lineup just to keep under the cap and that is kind of the definition of us getting worse.

$18 million for 10 players:

Markstrom 6
Tanev 5
Virtanen 2.5
Gaudette 1.75

That leaves $2.75 to sign 6 players... maybe bump that up to $4.75 with a cap increase of a couple million.  That also assumes already losing Stecher and Leivo off our roster.  That is also assuming that Virtanen's last month of play is a blip rather than what he will be for the rest of the season... because if he hits 25-30 goals and 50-60 points mostly 5 on 5, that is going to cost a lot more than $2.5 million.

Miller-Petterson-Boeser

Pearson-Horvat-Sutter

Roussel-Gaudette-Virtanen

Ferland-Beagle-Motte

Eriksson-MacEwan

Edler-Myers

Hughes-Tanev

Benn-Rafferty/Juolevi

Brisebois

 

Markstrom

Demko

That roster is a cap team already, it isn't improved at all and certainly isn't adding a top 6 winger.

 




 

I'd say Ferland's future is up in the air as well.  Might be LTIR for the remainder of his contract

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2 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

Cap Liabilities next year:

 

Eriksson: $6 mil

Luongo: $3.03 mil

Spooner: $1.03 mil

Baertschi: $2.29 mil

Sutter: $4.38 mil

Beagle: $3 mil

 

Total = $19.73 million 

 

Some of this will need to be moved before canucks can compete for the cup.

confused gary coleman GIF

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2 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

Cap Liabilities next year:

 

Eriksson: $6 mil

Luongo: $3.03 mil

Spooner: $1.03 mil

Baertschi: $2.29 mil

Sutter: $4.38 mil

Beagle: $3 mil

 

Total = $16.73 million 

 

 

Some of this will need to be moved before canucks can compete for the cup.

you need to look through to one more season where it opens up to 40 mil when Spooner, Baer and Sutter are off the books. Lu's off the year after with Loui.

 

Ideal? nope. Panic time? nope. We're going to have the same core roster next year, with the addition of Tryamkin and maybe some kids from Utica. 

 

 

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