Realistic best case / worst case cap implications [discussion]

[JM_]

I was doing some cap calc's - and if these are off please kindly point out needed corrections - and it seems to me like these are two likely scenario's from the looming cap crunch:

 

1) worst case: We have to lose Tanev and Stecher, and Loui can only be papered to Utica (I'm assuming that will still be allowed even with no actual AHL season). Sutter and Baer bought out. Toffoli re-ups at 5, Marky at 5.75.

 

That means we have to put out a d core of: Edler, Myers, Hughes, Benn, Juolevi, Rathbone, and one UFA for 1.5 million max. Good F group tho. Adventure time d. 

 

2) best case: Since it looks assured Marky will be back, that means Demko has to go. We trade Demko + Loui to Detroit for something meaningless cap wise. Demko and Bernier could split the season, Detroit protects Demko and has their next #1 goalie. Sutter and Baer bought out.  Toffoli re-ups at 5, Marky at 5.75.

 

This would leave us again with a solid F group, and Tanev or another UFA D to improve the d corps. 

 

Does the math below work?

 

Edited July 30, 2020 by Jimmy McGill

[Nuxfanabroad]

Worst?.. Flame out vs the Mild(we'd pick around #12, 13 ish..should be a good player, at least).

This scenario our boat anchor contracts likely require buy outs, wherever possible.

Feel it's more likely we try a risky trade, if in this position. Either risk a trade, Or Toffoli/Tanev walk.

 

Best: Go on a run & win, (at least a couple rds).

The 1st is paid off, so team doesn't feel under the gun, whenever next season occurs.

You'd have to imagine 2 or 3 vets have a decent playoff here. Selling(maybe with retention, or adding decent prospect) becomes plausible.

Could also risk allowing Tanev to pursue $ & term on the market. Give a bigger chance to youth on the blueline.

[Rick Blight]

32 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

I was doing some cap calc's - and if these are off please kindly point out needed corrections - and it seems to me like these are two likely scenario's from the looming cap crunch:

 

1) worst case: We have to lose Tanev and Stecher, and Loui can only be papered to Utica (I'm assuming that will still be allowed even with no actual AHL season). Sutter and Baer bought out. Toffoli re-ups at 5, Marky at 5.75.

 

That means we have to put out a d core of: Edler, Myers, Hughes, Benn, Juolevi, Rathbone, and one UFA for 1.5 million max. Good F group tho. Adventure time d. 

 

2) best case: Since it looks assured Marky will be back, that means Demko has to go. We trade Demko + Loui to Detroit for something meaningless cap wise. Demko and Bernier could split the season, Detroit protects Demko and has their next #1 goalie. Sutter and Baer bought out.  Toffoli re-ups at 5, Marky at 5.75.

 

This would leave us again with a solid F group, and Tanev or another UFA D to improve the d corps. 

 

Does the math below work?

 

It looks like you plan to run a 22 man roster? What about performance bonus carryover from the 2019/20 season?

Edited July 30, 2020 by Rick Blight

[canuktravella]

marky is getting more  than 5.75 and toffoli probably is gonna ask for 6 i dontwannagive tanev 5 id give him 3.5  let him get paid a ton somewhere else ilethim walk id also rather trade demko for picks and bury eriksson in utica 

[canuktravella]

2 minutes ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

Worst?.. Flame out vs the Mild(we'd pick around #12, 13 ish..should be a good player, at least).

This scenario our boat anchor contracts likely require buy outs, wherever possible.

Feel it's more likely we try a risky trade, if in this position. Either risk a trade, Or Toffoli/Tanev walk.

 

Best: Go on a run & win, (at least a couple rds).

The 1st is paid off, so team doesn't feel under the gun, whenever next season occurs.

You'd have to imagine 2 or 3 vets have a decent playoff here. Selling(maybe with retention, or adding decent prospect) becomes plausible.

Could also risk allowing Tanev to pursue $ & term on the market. Give a bigger chance to youth on the blueline.

id rather give juolevi and rafferty and rathbone   bottom pair and 7th d spots  saves us 7.8 mill with tanev stech and fantenburg off books  minus the 2.7 mill the kids would get on elc combined contracts  time to go to youth could go hard after a right hand dman for first pairing

[JM_]

49 minutes ago, Rick Blight said:

It looks like you plan to run a 22 man roster? What about performance bonus carryover from the 2019/20 season?

I don't see any other choice. Green ran with 7 d this year and I don't see that changing unless we can dump Loui and maybe someone else on top of the Baer and Sutter buyouts. I can't make that math work. 

 

The new CBA allows the performance bonuses from this year to be split over two years, so thats the 850k in the calcs. 

Edited July 30, 2020 by Jimmy McGill

[JM_]

49 minutes ago, canuktravella said:

marky is getting more  than 5.75 and toffoli probably is gonna ask for 6 i dontwannagive tanev 5 id give him 3.5  let him get paid a ton somewhere else ilethim walk id also rather trade demko for picks and bury eriksson in utica 

I do think Marky will come in under 6, but he'll probably get a 5 year deal for that vs a 4. 

 

I like TT but he's not worth 6 - if thats his demand I think we have to let him walk. If he's going for 6 and Tanev 5 then lets take a run at Pietrangelo (assuming in the best case where Loui is moved).

 

 

[JM_]

55 minutes ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

Worst?.. Flame out vs the Mild(we'd pick around #12, 13 ish..should be a good player, at least).

This scenario our boat anchor contracts likely require buy outs, wherever possible.

Feel it's more likely we try a risky trade, if in this position. Either risk a trade, Or Toffoli/Tanev walk.

 

Best: Go on a run & win, (at least a couple rds).

The 1st is paid off, so team doesn't feel under the gun, whenever next season occurs.

You'd have to imagine 2 or 3 vets have a decent playoff here. Selling(maybe with retention, or adding decent prospect) becomes plausible.

Could also risk allowing Tanev to pursue $ & term on the market. Give a bigger chance to youth on the blueline.

for sure from a team goal pov, I'm thinking cap management pov on this specifically. Just trying to figure out the "worst" case - i.e., what are the moves totally under Jim's control and what does that look like, vs "best" he's able to move Loui and we're out of cap hell. 

[Rick Blight]

4 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

I don't see any other choice. Green ran with 7 d this year and I don't see that changing unless we can dump Loui and maybe someone else on top of the Baer and Sutter buyouts. I can't make that math work. 

Yeah, just wanted to make sure the 22 man roster was an intentional decision. Personally, I wouldn't be too comfortable with that but I understand the math.

 

Pretty sure  the management team are working on solutions to their cap issues and everything should be on the table for consideration. There is not much doubt in my mind there will be significant changes made in the off season that many here will not be too pleased with.

[JM_]

1 minute ago, Rick Blight said:

Yeah, just wanted to make sure the 22 man roster was an intentional decision. Personally, I wouldn't be too comfortable with that but I understand the math.

 

Pretty sure  the management team are working on solutions to their cap issues and everything should be on the table for consideration. There is not much doubt in my mind there will be significant changes made in the off season that many here will not be too pleased with.

this big risk of course with 7 d are those times when you get 2 injuries and can't get a kid in from Utica fast enough. Happens.... but given the cap situation I just think they'll do it again like this year. 

 

TBH I don't mind the idea of not re-upping Tanev for 4 or 5 more years if thats the big result from this situation. I love his heart, but whats the real chance he plays out even 70% of those years? Maybe some forced change is OK even if its a temporary downgrade for 1 year. And the kids might just step up and surprise us too. 

 

 

[VegasCanuck]

I generally agree with your projections @Jimmy McGill with a couple of exceptions.

 

Toffoli, I think is closer to 5.5 - 6 million range

Virtanen, I can't see getting more than 1.5 - 1.75 million, 1 year, show me contract, unless he completely changes his approach to hockey over the next 2 weeks.

Markstrom, I believe is around 5.5 - 6 million, I don't believe that he will go higher than that in a flat cap. Anyone who thinks he would, are not looking around the NHL, at what other teams would have to do to make room to pickup a salary on him without trading an equal salary to another team, who probably can't afford to take it.

 

I don't think we'll move Demko until next summer, if we need to. I think they will see how DiPietro develops this coming season before the are open to moving / losing him.

 

I agree that Eriksson will be assigned to Utica, and I also believe that he may very well, refuse to report, triggering a mutual contract termination so that he can pursue spots with other teams. Someone may be willing to give him a flyer at 1.25 - 1.5 million in the NHL, which he'd probably find more attractive than being that far away from family, earning around 2 - 2.5 million.

 

We may be able to figure out how to keep Tanev, if we can add a draft pick or retain a little and move Sutter. I like Sutter, and all things being equal, would probably just let him ride out his contract here, but we need to recapture some cap space, and he's not a bad option to mentor a young, growing team like Ottawa or something.

 

Good review though.

[JM_]

1 hour ago, VegasCanuck said:

I generally agree with your projections @Jimmy McGill with a couple of exceptions.

 

Toffoli, I think is closer to 5.5 - 6 million range

Virtanen, I can't see getting more than 1.5 - 1.75 million, 1 year, show me contract, unless he completely changes his approach to hockey over the next 2 weeks.

Markstrom, I believe is around 5.5 - 6 million, I don't believe that he will go higher than that in a flat cap. Anyone who thinks he would, are not looking around the NHL, at what other teams would have to do to make room to pickup a salary on him without trading an equal salary to another team, who probably can't afford to take it.

 

I don't think we'll move Demko until next summer, if we need to. I think they will see how DiPietro develops this coming season before the are open to moving / losing him.

 

I agree that Eriksson will be assigned to Utica, and I also believe that he may very well, refuse to report, triggering a mutual contract termination so that he can pursue spots with other teams. Someone may be willing to give him a flyer at 1.25 - 1.5 million in the NHL, which he'd probably find more attractive than being that far away from family, earning around 2 - 2.5 million.

 

We may be able to figure out how to keep Tanev, if we can add a draft pick or retain a little and move Sutter. I like Sutter, and all things being equal, would probably just let him ride out his contract here, but we need to recapture some cap space, and he's not a bad option to mentor a young, growing team like Ottawa or something.

 

Good review though.

mutual termination would be a great option, the problem now tho is there probably won't be anyone in Utica so it would be on paper only so he'd be at home making his $$. So unless he really had a strong desire to play elsewhere I don't know that he takes that route.

 

 

[khay]

Honestly, if Marky is asking for > 6, I'd let him walk. 5.5 is probably the maximum that I'll give and I'd try hard to get him in at 5 or 5.25. His NHL career was off the rails when we acquired him and we gave him 3+ years to learn and develop under Ryan Miller. I think if anyone should give us home town discount, it's Marky. 

 

If he refuses, I'd sign someone for under 4 mil and go with Demko + new guy as a tandem. 

 

I would try to keep Toffoli but not for more than 5.5 at no more than 4 years. If we lose him it won't be the end of the world. We traded for him to replace Boeser who was likely to be out for the regular season at that time but now Boeser is back and should take his place back on #1 line moving forward.

 

We have guys younger coming up for 2nd line scoring role like Hogslander, Lind, Podkolzin. Virtanen showed that he can be a 20 goal scorer in this league. I think we will be fine without Toffoli.

 

I think Tanev should be brought back unless there is a better replacement in the UFA market. A bit radical but I would honestly considering tendering 9-9.5 mil offer at Pietrangelo by letting Tanev and one of {Toffoli, Markstrom} walk.

 

I think 2020-21 forward group should stay more or less status quo except for development within. But I'd do my best to upgrade defence.

 

Edler-Rathbone

Hughes-Pietrangelo

Juolevi-Myers

Benn

 

[Ghostsof1915]

Unless some moves like Roussel, Eriksson, Sutter happen to clear up cap space. I can only think Tanev, and Stecher walk. 

Toffoli has looked great, Markstrom is starting to show he's a true #1. 

Maybe a bunch of minor moves like letting both Leivo and Motte go. 

Gaudette gets re-upped for sure. 

As I would say MacE.

I'd like to see Jake stay. But once again it would depend on if the team got an offer Benning couldn't refuse. 

That leaves a MASSIVE hole on the Right Side D.

Unless Rafferty, and perhaps Woo can make the jump. (That might be too big of an ask). 

Juolevi could be tried on the right side, With Rathbone on the left? Duking it out with Benn for final left side spot? 

 

Tough call. And it's going to get tougher. Benning needs to draft some defensemen ASAP. 

And the team doesn't have the College UFA crop up for grabs this brief offseason. Or do they? (Josh Maniscalco?)

 

 

[Nuxfanabroad]

2 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

for sure from a team goal pov, I'm thinking cap management pov on this specifically. Just trying to figure out the "worst" case - i.e., what are the moves totally under Jim's control and what does that look like, vs "best" he's able to move Loui and we're out of cap hell. 

Your numbers look realistic to me. Hard to engage in that too deeply..AAV/term could be tweaked, or even NMC/NTC's where JB decides to risk it.

 

I see a bigger factor at play, that I haven't really seen discussed anywheres, tbh

 

Will Van become a MIGHTY desired destination, all of a sudden? If you're a young pro athlete, do you really wanna' be around all that political, social (& gunsy) discord down in the lower 48?! I wouldn't. I get the impression ownership(alongside an impressive alumni) will make Van appear a mighty special place, where devoted vets are well taken care of. Already a rising team(young stars) in a beautiful gem of a landscape.

 

It's for this^ reason I haven't spent much time concerned about our AAV numbers. If guys really want to be here,(& they make a tangible impact) they'll find a way.

[Drakrami]

Looks like the reason we are giving Fantenberg/Juolevi a shot at the NHL is because we are preparing to lose some regular Dmen due to next season's cap. Tanev/Stretcher... 

[smithers joe]

i’ld let tanev walk, move benn to dallas and sign stech and fantenberg for depth. if i couldn’t move ericksson, baertschi and leivo, i’ld let toffoli walk. there is no way toff should make more than jt miller. 

whatever way they go, some fans will get there panties in a knot. 

[mll]

3 hours ago, VegasCanuck said:

I generally agree with your projections @Jimmy McGill with a couple of exceptions.

 

Toffoli, I think is closer to 5.5 - 6 million range

Virtanen, I can't see getting more than 1.5 - 1.75 million, 1 year, show me contract, unless he completely changes his approach to hockey over the next 2 weeks.

Markstrom, I believe is around 5.5 - 6 million, I don't believe that he will go higher than that in a flat cap. Anyone who thinks he would, are not looking around the NHL, at what other teams would have to do to make room to pickup a salary on him without trading an equal salary to another team, who probably can't afford to take it.

 

I don't think we'll move Demko until next summer, if we need to. I think they will see how DiPietro develops this coming season before the are open to moving / losing him.

 

I agree that Eriksson will be assigned to Utica, and I also believe that he may very well, refuse to report, triggering a mutual contract termination so that he can pursue spots with other teams. Someone may be willing to give him a flyer at 1.25 - 1.5 million in the NHL, which he'd probably find more attractive than being that far away from family, earning around 2 - 2.5 million.

 

We may be able to figure out how to keep Tanev, if we can add a draft pick or retain a little and move Sutter. I like Sutter, and all things being equal, would probably just let him ride out his contract here, but we need to recapture some cap space, and he's not a bad option to mentor a young, growing team like Ottawa or something.

 

Good review though.

 

Virtanen has arbitration rights.  His agent will most likely file for leverage.  His production allows him to hope for around 3.5M.  He'll likely use use the Baertschi deal as comparable.

 

The challenge with arbitration rights is that the filing and hearings are after free agency opens up.  Teams have to keep cap room or they could be forced to clear cap space late in the off-season.  I actually wonder if the Canucks will even qualify Virtanen if they don't manage to trade him before.

 

I think Eriksson will play out the rest of his contract.  He was already paid his bonus for next season on 1 July.  He could have opted out from coming to the bubble but didn't - salaries for this season have already been paid too.   He was also asked point-blank if he will play out the rest of his contract and said he would.  With the pandemic, players have earned far less than expected as they have to return a portion of their salaries as part of the 50-50 revenue sharing.  There's no escrow in the AHL - he could make more there than in the NHL. 

 

Doubt anyone is going to give Eriksson a flyer.  There might not be all AHL teams operating next season.  Teams are going to have to play prospects somewhere and it could prompt them to promote some earlier than expected - ie taking up roster spots and limiting the need to add support/bottom of the lineup players through free agency (or trade). 

 

Sutter has had so many injuries to his core and it has limited his effectiveness. I even wonder if he could end up on LTIR.  It looks like Green's hard camp already took a toll on Sutter.  I doubt any team would want to bring him in at his cost and with so many question marks on his effectiveness.  

 

Edited July 31, 2020 by mll

[VegasCanuck]

2 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

mutual termination would be a great option, the problem now tho is there probably won't be anyone in Utica so it would be on paper only so he'd be at home making his $$. So unless he really had a strong desire to play elsewhere I don't know that he takes that route.

 

 

If he wants to still play, he might take that option. Depends on how good his agent is at selling spare parts;)

[J.I.A.H.N]

Good job Jimmy!

 

I have been wrestling with this one, and honestly, we don't get out of this one without pain!

 

I am starting to feel that Virtanen and Demko are the cost

 

Something like

 

Virtanen (3M) + Eriksson(6M)      to      Ottawa for Marian Gaborik (LTIR) + Ottawa's 2020-3rd

and 

Demko(2M) + Sutter(4.375M)       to        Detroit for Daren Helm @ 50% (1 yr) (1.95M) + Edmonton's 2020-2nd

 

My thinking on Virtanen is that Vancouver will sign Toffoli, giving us 2 top RW's, then McEwen steps in for a Virtanen on 3rd line for a year until Podkolzin arrives

and my thinking on Sutter/Helm is there is not much difference in talent, Demko gives Detroit a goalie of the future

while only costing them a late 2nd.

 

It gets rid of approx 15.5 Million - Helm's 1.95M = Approx. 13.5 M savings, plus/minus a back goalie to replace Demko. I think gets us just as far, in the end. 

 

In the end, I still don't think this is our time yet, and we are still 2 years away from being a competitive team (top 10), if we are lucky!

 

Hopefully, Benning doesn't get any stupid idea's with the extra cap..............just re-sign who we have

 

 

Edited July 31, 2020 by janisahockeynut