Coronavirus outbreak

[LesPaul81]

13 minutes ago, samurai said:

You are no serious about the last question?

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/health-52920591

 

Typically with schools in areas of poverty you have overcrowding, poor facilities,  lack of resources for hygiene maintenance (cleaning) and so forth.  Not to mention kids living in situations described in the video.   Mississippi is not a good reference for BC at all.   46% of African American students live in poverty in that state.  African Americans  represent close to 40% of the total population.  

 

I am in Japan, in May, 18 million kids 5-18 years old went back to school full time until the last week of July.   And they went back this week again after a two week break.  During that time one cluster was identified at a university.  They were rugby players living together in the same dorm.  60 of 170 or so tested positive - all mild or no symptoms.  To date no cluster or break out has occurred at any primary or secondary school here.   There was no option to remote learn here. 

 

 

 

 

Ah I see your point and I'm glad it worked out where you are.  Maybe Japan was lucky, I don't know.  My concerns are not necessarily poverty related but more around offering parents options to how to move forward with our kids education whether you're in Whalley or in North Vancouver.  When those students went back to school was it during a high peak Covid time or were your numbers fairly low?

 

As ours are high, I'd like to see some options.

[bishopshodan]

5 minutes ago, LesPaul81 said:

Maybe Japan was lucky, I don't know

Japan is looking at a second wave, their cases are up. However, the totals pale in comparison to the US, completely diff culture. That said, I have read some criticisms of their testing amounts. 

Also, their economy was struggling before covid , they are barely hanging on now.

 

That country is in trouble, as many are. 

[samurai]

1 minute ago, LesPaul81 said:

Ah I see your point and I'm glad it worked out where you are.  Maybe Japan was lucky, I don't know.  My concerns are not necessarily poverty related but more around offering parents options to how to move forward with our kids education whether you're in Whalley or in North Vancouver.  When those students went back to school was it during a high peak Covid time or were your numbers fairly low?

 

As ours are high, I'd like to see some options.

Our trajectory has been kind of like BC's.  Schools stopped here mid Feb because of a state of emergency due to Covid.  Schools end here in March and start the new year in April.  At the time of that as you know things were bad every where.   By mid-May because of the so-called lock down numbers like in BC dropped substantially and the emergency was lifted.  But by the end of May until now they have shot right back up again and are breaking records.   Japan sees on average 1000 cases a day - more testing but no doubt it has spread.   But low hospitalizations and deaths and a different demographic.  When clusters get identified they almost always seems to be hospitals and care homes  - even after all the measures are taken.

 

So since late June our numbers are worse then pre-lock down but despite this the schools are on and there has not been any problems.  I have two kids in primary school.  

 

I don't disagree with you at all about having options for families for the next session.  I will say this my kids were a lot happier once they were able to start attending school again and that is saying a lot about my son.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Crabcakes]

2 hours ago, Robert Long said:

unless enough anti-vaxxers get their way, and enough covid stays in the population to mutate and we're right back where we started. 

How many anti-vaxers are out there really?  I see it as a fairly small group.  The dangerous thing about them is that they are making decisions for their innocent children at their peril.  As such, they get a high profile in the media.  If it takes 70% to create heard immunity, is there really north of 30% of the general population who are anti-vaxers?  I seriously doubt it.

[kingofsurrey]

5 minutes ago, samurai said:

Our trajectory has been kind of like BC's.  Schools stopped here mid Feb because of a state of emergency due to Covid.  Schools end here in March and start the new year in April.  At the time of that as you know things were bad every where.   By mid-May because of the so-called lock down numbers like in BC dropped substantially and the emergency was lifted.  But by the end of May until now they have shot right back up again and are breaking records.   Japan sees on average 1000 cases a day - more testing but no doubt it has spread.   But low hospitalizations and deaths and a different demographic.  When clusters get identified they almost always seems to be hospitals and care homes  - even after all the measures are taken.

 

So since late June our numbers are worse then pre-lock down but despite this the schools are on and there has not been any problems.  I have two kids in primary school.  

 

I don't disagree with you at all about having options for families for the next session.  I will say this my kids were a lot happier once they were able to start attending school again and that is saying a lot about my son.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

However, this does not mean Japan has the disease under control. One cause for concern is the rising number of critically ill patients.

 

As of August 18, there were 243 severe cases, a threefold increase compared to the beginning of the month.

Coronavirus cases in Japan started to surge again in June and July. New infections centered on nightlife entertainment districts in major cities, although people in their twenties and thirties accounted for many of the cases and symptoms tended to be mild. However, infections within households and clusters at hospitals and facilities for seniors are increasing. This has led to a higher proportion of older people being infected, which is thought to be driving the rise in severe cases.

 

https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h00799/

[LesPaul81]

5 minutes ago, samurai said:

Our trajectory has been kind of like BC's.  Schools stopped here mid Feb because of a state of emergency due to Covid.  Schools end here in March and start the new year in April.  At the time of that as you know things were bad every where.   By mid-May because of the so-called lock down numbers like in BC dropped substantially and the emergency was lifted.  But by the end of May until now they have shot right back up again and are breaking records.   Japan sees on average 1000 cases a day - more testing but no doubt it has spread.   But low hospitalizations and deaths and a different demographic.  When clusters get identified they almost always seems to be hospitals and care homes  - even after all the measures are taken.

 

So since late June our numbers are worse then pre-lock down but despite this the schools are on and there has not been any problems.  I have two kids in primary school.  

 

I don't disagree with you at all about having options for families for the next session.  I will say this my kids were a lot happier once they were able to start attending school again and that is saying a lot about my son.

 

 

 

 

 

 

And that's where my anxieties begin.  Our numbers are jumping and opening schools isn't going to help that slow down.  Where measures can be taken to limit the number of bodies in class, they should be taken or at least considered.  For what we do and do not know about this virus I don't want my kids exposed at this point.  Maybe they get it, are fine now and show minimal symptoms.  What happens in 3-5 or 5-10 years?  I'm not a tinfoil hat wearing kind of guy but my kids health is of extreme importance to me (as I'm sure all) and I want them protected as far as possible.

 

My kids actually responded extremely well to home schooling in the spring.  It gave them more time to harness the information and really understand it as opposed to pushing through to get things done and not completely getting it it.

 

The gold rush was an opportunity to really expand on what their teacher read to them as there was so much more to explain and they really got into it.  So much so they want to see Barkerville badly.

[samurai]

15 minutes ago, LesPaul81 said:

And that's where my anxieties begin.  Our numbers are jumping and opening schools isn't going to help that slow down.  Where measures can be taken to limit the number of bodies in class, they should be taken or at least considered.  For what we do and do not know about this virus I don't want my kids exposed at this point.  Maybe they get it, are fine now and show minimal symptoms.  What happens in 3-5 or 5-10 years?  I'm not a tinfoil hat wearing kind of guy but my kids health is of extreme importance to me (as I'm sure all) and I want them protected as far as possible.

 

My kids actually responded extremely well to home schooling in the spring.  It gave them more time to harness the information and really understand it as opposed to pushing through to get things done and not completely getting it it.

 

The gold rush was an opportunity to really expand on what their teacher read to them as there was so much more to explain and they really got into it.  So much so they want to see Barkerville badly.

All parents have the same nightmares regarding their children. 

 

When we went back we did 2 hours a day and the classes were split.  About a week later it went to 3 plus hours and still split.  And then 3 weeks later it was back to regular class size and regular hours. They still alternate play time outside at recess and lunch to avoid groupings.  

 

Our school didn't offer much homework during the closure and so my wife supplemented it with other home work.  It caused a lot of fighting in the house.   My wife was a textbook example of why some parents shouldn't teach their kids. 

 

Been to Barkerville many many times.  I am from that area.  Lots of fun for family and very beautiful country.   I like the shows they put on.

 

 

Edited August 21, 2020 by samurai

[samurai]

33 minutes ago, bishopshodan said:

Japan is looking at a second wave, their cases are up. However, the totals pale in comparison to the US, completely diff culture. That said, I have read some criticisms of their testing amounts. 

Also, their economy was struggling before covid , they are barely hanging on now.

 

That country is in trouble, as many are. 

if you take out the human lock down it is really just one wave.  

[bishopshodan]

4 minutes ago, samurai said:

if you take out the human lock down it is really just one wave.  

Do you think there is any motivation regarding the struggling economy? I hear the Bon festival is the pits this year. 

Is Japan testing up to its capabilities? 

[samurai]

40 minutes ago, bishopshodan said:

Do you think there is any motivation regarding the struggling economy? I hear the Bon festival is the pits this year. 

Is Japan testing up to its capabilities? 

In Feb-March they cancelled all summer festivals including the Obon festivals.   Some Obon festivals go back 400 plus years and have important religious significance.   But yet you can go watch a baseball game.  That is classic Japan - contradictions galore. 

 

In the US, UK and somewhat in Canada the debate has been shaped at times as lives or the economy.  Japan is very conservative so any swing in one direction or the other is avoided at all costs.   So what often guides policy is how not to change or maintain the status quo while showing some flexibility. Most of Asia is like this I believe.   And so the policy is muddling through things like the Obon and baseball point.  So the idea of a full lockdown was never on the table so to speak.  I don't recall having discussions with any Japanese who wanted stricter measures nor hearing any pundits support that policy before or now.  

 

As for testing they are doing more of it now than they ever have and that is one reason why the reported infections are at their highest (but of course it is spreading test or no test).  But the gov't has also I think made a reasoned argument of why they have not tested as much as other countries.  If you look at medical testing for any kind of issue, Japan ranks at the very top.  They love tests. 

 

A quarter of the population is over 65 years old here.  So yes, there is the potential for things to go terribly wrong in this post lock down living with Covid period.  My view though is that the over 65 demo here is a lot healthier than say in the US or most parts of the world.  But the gov't has publicly stated that this phase could spread into the older population.  I don't dispute that at all.   At the moment things are stable.    One thing is for sure there will not be another lock down here.  

 

 

 

 

Edited August 21, 2020 by samurai

[wloutet]

I worked for 13 years in a school that was all self-paced, in all courses for all students. We had up to to 1400 students taking 8 courses each all self-paced. It worked! But it took about 3 or 4 years to get to where we wanted to be. There was very little online courses. Most courses were reading to get the information. I did 110 Math videos under "minkusbc" to help out, but primarily it was reading with lectures involved as well. It is possible. But it will not happen easily right away. So much depends on how self-motivated the learner is.  

[LesPaul81]

58 minutes ago, wloutet said:

I worked for 13 years in a school that was all self-paced, in all courses for all students. We had up to to 1400 students taking 8 courses each all self-paced. It worked! But it took about 3 or 4 years to get to where we wanted to be. There was very little online courses. Most courses were reading to get the information. I did 110 Math videos under "minkusbc" to help out, but primarily it was reading with lectures involved as well. It is possible. But it will not happen easily right away. So much depends on how self-motivated the learner is.  

I'd love to see some of that mixed in for sure.  Do you mind if I ask where that was?

[JM_]

2 hours ago, Crabcakes said:

How many anti-vaxers are out there really?  I see it as a fairly small group.  The dangerous thing about them is that they are making decisions for their innocent children at their peril.  As such, they get a high profile in the media.  If it takes 70% to create heard immunity, is there really north of 30% of the general population who are anti-vaxers?  I seriously doubt it.

30% anti-vaxxers, no, but anti-vaxxers plus people "not sure" yeah I can see that. 

[footsy]

2 hours ago, Crabcakes said:

How many anti-vaxers are out there really?  I see it as a fairly small group.  The dangerous thing about them is that they are making decisions for their innocent children at their peril.  As such, they get a high profile in the media.  If it takes 70% to create heard immunity, is there really north of 30% of the general population who are anti-vaxers?  I seriously doubt it.

Not many anti vaxers out there, but I don't know anyone who's in a rush to take a vaccine to avoid a relatively mild disease like this one. This is not small pox. If you're at risk, go ahead, take the vaccine, problem solved. The vaccines have side effects that would have a bigger impact than the disease for the majority of the population. Forget it.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/20/pfizer-and-biontechs-favored-covid-19-vaccine-has-fewer-side-effects-than-their-first.html

 

With the original vaccine, called BNT162b1, or B1 for short, patients between the ages of 18 and 55 had adverse events thought to be related to the vaccine 50% of the time at the 30-microgram dose. Those between the ages of 65 and 85 had related adverse events 16.7% of the time.

For the second vaccine, BNT162b2, or B2, patients between 18 and 55 had adverse events thought to be related to the vaccine 16.7% of the time, and no adverse effects thought to be related to the vaccine were reported in those between the ages of 65 and 85.

[kingofsurrey]

24 minutes ago, footsy said:

Not many anti vaxers out there, but I don't know anyone who's in a rush to take a vaccine to avoid a relatively mild disease like this one. This is not small pox. If you're at risk, go ahead, take the vaccine, problem solved. The vaccines have side effects that would have a bigger impact than the disease for the majority of the population. Forget it.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/20/pfizer-and-biontechs-favored-covid-19-vaccine-has-fewer-side-effects-than-their-first.html

 

With the original vaccine, called BNT162b1, or B1 for short, patients between the ages of 18 and 55 had adverse events thought to be related to the vaccine 50% of the time at the 30-microgram dose. Those between the ages of 65 and 85 had related adverse events 16.7% of the time.

For the second vaccine, BNT162b2, or B2, patients between 18 and 55 had adverse events thought to be related to the vaccine 16.7% of the time, and no adverse effects thought to be related to the vaccine were reported in those between the ages of 65 and 85.

Gallup poll results in USA indicated 100 million americans would not take a Covid Vaccine that was free of charge......

[footsy]

Just now, kingofsurrey said:

Gallup poll results in USA indicated 100 million americans would not take a Covid Vaccine that was free of charge......

Hmmm.  How many said they would take it? For perspective.

 

[kingofsurrey]

1 minute ago, footsy said:

Hmmm.  How many said they would take it? For perspective.

 

https://news.gallup.com/poll/317018/one-three-americans-not-covid-vaccine.aspx

 

 

But many Americans appear reluctant to be vaccinated, even if a vaccine were FDA-approved and available to them at no cost. Asked if they would get such a COVID-19 vaccine, 65% say they would, but 35% would not.

 

The results are based on July 20-Aug. 2 polling in Gallup's COVID-19 tracking survey,

[Chris12345]

8 minutes ago, kingofsurrey said:

Gallup poll results in USA indicated 100 million americans would not take a Covid Vaccine that was free of charge......

Please forgive my narrow mindset by why do I give a $hit if 100M Americans aren't vaccinated if I am?

[kingofsurrey]

19 minutes ago, Chris12345 said:

Please forgive my narrow mindset by why do I give a $hit if 100M Americans aren't vaccinated if I am?

One thing that many parents may not understand is that while vaccinations are highly effective and greatly decrease the chance of getting a preventable disease, according to the CDC, depending on the vaccine, about 1% to 5% who are vaccinated fail to develop immunity

 

When enough people are vaccinated against a certain disease, the germs can’t travel as easily from person to person and the entire community is less likely to get the disease. This concept is known as “herd immunity” or “community immunity”

 

https://shotofprevention.com/2011/04/12/why-worry-about-the-unvaccinated/

Edited August 21, 2020 by kingofsurrey

[Crabcakes]

11 hours ago, footsy said:

Not many anti vaxers out there, but I don't know anyone who's in a rush to take a vaccine to avoid a relatively mild disease like this one. This is not small pox. If you're at risk, go ahead, take the vaccine, problem solved. The vaccines have side effects that would have a bigger impact than the disease for the majority of the population. Forget it.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/20/pfizer-and-biontechs-favored-covid-19-vaccine-has-fewer-side-effects-than-their-first.html

 

With the original vaccine, called BNT162b1, or B1 for short, patients between the ages of 18 and 55 had adverse events thought to be related to the vaccine 50% of the time at the 30-microgram dose. Those between the ages of 65 and 85 had related adverse events 16.7% of the time.

For the second vaccine, BNT162b2, or B2, patients between 18 and 55 had adverse events thought to be related to the vaccine 16.7% of the time, and no adverse effects thought to be related to the vaccine were reported in those between the ages of 65 and 85.

These aren't vaccines being used widely.  They are being tested.  There are many being tested world wide and scientists have to do their due diligence to prove that a vaccine is both safe and effective.  This is why they go through several studies and we hear that a vaccine won't likely be proven to meet standards for 6 months to a year from now.  We hope that at least 1 of perhaps thousands of attempts will prove to be both safe and effective. 

 

Here is a quote from the Wikipedia site re vaccines in development world wide.

 

A COVID‑19 vaccine is a biotechnology product intended to provide acquired immunity against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‑19). As of August 2020, there were 231 vaccine candidates in development,^[1][2] although no candidate has completed clinical trials to prove its safety and efficacy. In August, at least 25 vaccine candidates were in clinical trials, with 6 beginning Phase III and 19 still in Phase I–II.^[1][2][3]