Can someone tell me what is happening with the real estate market here?

[thrago]

On 3/7/2021 at 7:27 PM, Jester13 said:

I hear people say this all the time, but I honestly think that sentiment is only proven true for those young people who don't want to sacrifice their wants in order to get ahead.

 

Austerity can see young people save a lot of money year after year, until finally they have a down payment,  but I see way too many of said young people who don't want to give up dinners out, alcohol, etc., and instead complain that they can't have their home now.

 

Every generation before us has either had family help or just put in years of sacrifice, but instant gratification has been on the rise for a while now, so...

Another thing I've noticed is unlike every other generation before it kids these days need to have the Nice brand new car rather then the junkers we all drove as our first cars and the houses need to be equal or better then the house their parents live in even though there parents have slowly upgraded there house over the years with several purchases.  

[themcdeal]

6 minutes ago, thrago said:

Another thing I've noticed is unlike every other generation before it kids these days need to have the Nice brand new car rather then the junkers we all drove as our first cars and the houses need to be equal or better then the house their parents live in even though there parents have slowly upgraded there house over the years with several purchases.  

A bit of a generalization but I think much of that has to do with social media. Besides making people more materialistic, theirs been a paradigm shift, where you're no longer trying to show off amongst your closest friends but your entire media following.

 

Couple that with the fact that cars are cheaper and financing in more easier access

 

 

 

 

[KoreanHockeyFan]

Anyone have an idea of how much commission real estate agents around Greater Vancouver make these days? 

[Russ]

12 hours ago, KoreanHockeyFan said:

Anyone have an idea of how much commission real estate agents around Greater Vancouver make these days? 

How much are real estate fees in Vancouver, BC?

I charge a real estate commission of 7% on the 1st $100,000 and 2.5% on the balance of the sale price for properties in Vancouver.

Around half (50%) of the 7% on the 1st $100,000 and 2.5% on the balance is payable to a buyers agent who brings the seller an offer that completes at the Land Titles Office.


I assume thats a pretty standard price that most probably all follow.

[themcdeal]

14 hours ago, KoreanHockeyFan said:

Anyone have an idea of how much commission real estate agents around Greater Vancouver make these days? 

Too much 

[stawns]

I'm really in a funny spot.  I'm the owner of a pretty valuable piece of property in the north okanagan and have long wanted to sell, but family circumstances and then a declining market after the 2008 crash prevented that.  Now, in this bubble I'm faced with another tough decision.  My property is rapid;y gaining value and the city is closing in quickly whch means it should continue to appreciate in valaue.  However, I don't see how the market can continue the way it is, but I've been hearing that for adecade now and it keeps going up.  Do I get out now before a crash, or do I wait it out and really cash in down the road?

[Wilbur]

8 minutes ago, stawns said:

I'm really in a funny spot.  I'm the owner of a pretty valuable piece of property in the north okanagan and have long wanted to sell, but family circumstances and then a declining market after the 2008 crash prevented that.  Now, in this bubble I'm faced with another tough decision.  My property is rapid;y gaining value and the city is closing in quickly whch means it should continue to appreciate in valaue.  However, I don't see how the market can continue the way it is, but I've been hearing that for adecade now and it keeps going up.  Do I get out now before a crash, or do I wait it out and really cash in down the road?

You'll go insane trying to predict the peak (or the valley).  If you can put use to the return now, why wait?  If not, hold on.

[Bell]

Hold.  The price of lumber and building costs means that bad azz property is only going to appreciate.  Diamond hands.

[stawns]

5 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

You'll go insane trying to predict the peak (or the valley).  If you can put use to the return now, why wait?  If not, hold on.

This decision will chart the course for the rest of my life and will fund my retirement.  If I sell now, I walk away with a decent chunk of change, but probably not enough to buy a small acreage outright in the OKanagan and I'll need to have an income well into my senior years.  If I wait and it doesn't crash, I'm looking at a huge payday.  My struggle is that I missed the windown in the last bubble and if it crashes this time, who knows how old I'll be when it builds again.

 

There's also the factor of history........this farm was the original homestead for my family 140 years and it's the last remaining piece

 

oh, I also own it with my ex wife, so there's that wrinkle!

Edited April 4, 2021 by stawns

[Russ]

3 hours ago, stawns said:

This decision will chart the course for the rest of my life and will fund my retirement.  If I sell now, I walk away with a decent chunk of change, but probably not enough to buy a small acreage outright in the OKanagan and I'll need to have an income well into my senior years.  If I wait and it doesn't crash, I'm looking at a huge payday.  My struggle is that I missed the windown in the last bubble and if it crashes this time, who knows how old I'll be when it builds again.

 

There's also the factor of history........this farm was the original homestead for my family 140 years and it's the last remaining piece

 

oh, I also own it with my ex wife, so there's that wrinkle!

[Russ]

https://www.straight.com/news/realtor-warns-canadian-home-prices-could-fall-40-percent-in-major-housing-market-correction

 

Rather see this in the next year or 2 if it did happen...... 

[stawns]

56 minutes ago, Russ said:

[Warhippy]

9 hours ago, stawns said:

This decision will chart the course for the rest of my life and will fund my retirement.  If I sell now, I walk away with a decent chunk of change, but probably not enough to buy a small acreage outright in the OKanagan and I'll need to have an income well into my senior years.  If I wait and it doesn't crash, I'm looking at a huge payday.  My struggle is that I missed the windown in the last bubble and if it crashes this time, who knows how old I'll be when it builds again.

 

There's also the factor of history........this farm was the original homestead for my family 140 years and it's the last remaining piece

 

oh, I also own it with my ex wife, so there's that wrinkle!

To be honest i'd sell the hell out of it and hold on.

 

Look up teaser mortgages and what the current average mortgage payment is.  a bump to 2.5% would add almost $584 to the average monthly mortgage and that would break hundreds of thousands of people.

 

I truly think a bubble pop is coming because it is literally unsustainable now but it's absolutely run away with itself.  This is EXACTLY what happened in 2008 and while we don't see "sub-prime" mortgages, we do see essentially almost 95% of every mortgage given in canada over the last 608 years qualifying as a "teaser mortgage" due to it being a near below prime interest rate.

 

The scary thing...pre sub prime crash, only 30% to 40% of the US market was in a sub prime risk or under a "teaser mortgage"

 

just for instance.  In the lower mainland the low end to median mortgage payment is around $3000+ per month.  At current rates.  if it jumps to 5.5%, that now becomes a $4905 a month payment.  If it breaks the 7% mark, it essentially doubles.  While people think it is not possible, keeping in mind that over 3% was only a few years ago and it was only 2007 ish where rates were above 6%

 

If I were you, I would seriously look at selling for as much profit as possible because since 2000 canada leads the globe in runaway housing prices and every major financial institution is sounding the alarms without the fed even considering stepping in to stop it or calm it.

[stawns]

10 hours ago, Warhippy said:

To be honest i'd sell the hell out of it and hold on.

 

Look up teaser mortgages and what the current average mortgage payment is.  a bump to 2.5% would add almost $584 to the average monthly mortgage and that would break hundreds of thousands of people.

 

I truly think a bubble pop is coming because it is literally unsustainable now but it's absolutely run away with itself.  This is EXACTLY what happened in 2008 and while we don't see "sub-prime" mortgages, we do see essentially almost 95% of every mortgage given in canada over the last 608 years qualifying as a "teaser mortgage" due to it being a near below prime interest rate.

 

The scary thing...pre sub prime crash, only 30% to 40% of the US market was in a sub prime risk or under a "teaser mortgage"

 

just for instance.  In the lower mainland the low end to median mortgage payment is around $3000+ per month.  At current rates.  if it jumps to 5.5%, that now becomes a $4905 a month payment.  If it breaks the 7% mark, it essentially doubles.  While people think it is not possible, keeping in mind that over 3% was only a few years ago and it was only 2007 ish where rates were above 6%

 

If I were you, I would seriously look at selling for as much profit as possible because since 2000 canada leads the globe in runaway housing prices and every major financial institution is sounding the alarms without the fed even considering stepping in to stop it or calm it.

If I sold now, I could walk away with $500-700k and no debts, which is, obviously, a decent amount to start over with.  If it doesn't crash and I sold in 5 years, I walk away with far more than that.

[TGokou]

3 hours ago, stawns said:

If I sold now, I could walk away with $500-700k and no debts, which is, obviously, a decent amount to start over with.  If it doesn't crash and I sold in 5 years, I walk away with far more than that.

I don't think anyone can make that decision for you so take our advice with a grain of salt. Rather than trying to time the top which you'll never be able to do, do what you feel comfortable with and be sure your ok with any negative emotions that come with making that decision down the road. 

 

Here is what I'd do from a financial point of view though. First of all how close are you to retirement and if housing prices came back down would you be forced/panic sell? Would you be able to hang on for another 10 years? If you did sell what would you do with the money and how would you manage it? If your buying another property then it's not such a big deal as you'll still have skin in the game. With the excess cash do you plan on investing it into stock market where you can get 6-8% returns annually? I assume the property is already paid off so your no longer leveraged. If your not leveraged then you can afford to put it into stock market (assuming you have the tolerance for it) into some safe dividend aristocrats. I'd also do this if you need the income from your investments to fund your retirement. To be honest there's no real urgency to sell your property yet. Your probably safe to see if the property increases any more in the next few months so take your time.

[Warhippy]

4 hours ago, stawns said:

If I sold now, I could walk away with $500-700k and no debts, which is, obviously, a decent amount to start over with.  If it doesn't crash and I sold in 5 years, I walk away with far more than that.

Would you make more now than if it plunged say 20%?  What if it only grows say 10% over the next 5-10 years with current city growth towards clearwater, armstrong, salmon arm and alr issues/infrastructure?

 

500-700k is a STRONG upside and nothing to sneeze at over waiting for maybe 40k to 70k more

 

54 minutes ago, TGokou said:

I don't think anyone can make that decision for you so take our advice with a grain of salt. Rather than trying to time the top which you'll never be able to do, do what you feel comfortable with and be sure your ok with any negative emotions that come with making that decision down the road. 

 

Here is what I'd do from a financial point of view though. First of all how close are you to retirement and if housing prices came back down would you be forced/panic sell? Would you be able to hang on for another 10 years? If you did sell what would you do with the money and how would you manage it? If your buying another property then it's not such a big deal as you'll still have skin in the game. With the excess cash do you plan on investing it into stock market where you can get 6-8% returns annually? I assume the property is already paid off so your no longer leveraged. If your not leveraged then you can afford to put it into stock market (assuming you have the tolerance for it) into some safe dividend aristocrats. I'd also do this if you need the income from your investments to fund your retirement. To be honest there's no real urgency to sell your property yet. Your probably safe to see if the property increases any more in the next few months so take your time.

I'd second this, but also hedge that even a .5% increase could see people vastly over leveraged 

 

We'll have some small warning when the markets start correcting but it could possibly happen faster than any potential sale will allow if stock gets left on the market to flounder

[BCNeil]

On 4/4/2021 at 10:52 AM, stawns said:

I'm really in a funny spot.  I'm the owner of a pretty valuable piece of property in the north okanagan and have long wanted to sell, but family circumstances and then a declining market after the 2008 crash prevented that.  Now, in this bubble I'm faced with another tough decision.  My property is rapid;y gaining value and the city is closing in quickly whch means it should continue to appreciate in valaue.  However, I don't see how the market can continue the way it is, but I've been hearing that for adecade now and it keeps going up.  Do I get out now before a crash, or do I wait it out and really cash in down the road?

Set a super high asking price, see what happens.  Maybe you get an offer you can't refuse.  

[stawns]

1 hour ago, Warhippy said:

Would you make more now than if it plunged say 20%?  What if it only grows say 10% over the next 5-10 years with current city growth towards clearwater, armstrong, salmon arm and alr issues/infrastructure?

 

500-700k is a STRONG upside and nothing to sneeze at over waiting for maybe 40k to 70k more

 

I'd second this, but also hedge that even a .5% increase could see people vastly over leveraged 

 

We'll have some small warning when the markets start correcting but it could possibly happen faster than any potential sale will allow if stock gets left on the market to flounder

The city of vernon is, literally, at my doorstep and the only place for it to grow is in my direction.  

[4petesake]

1 minute ago, stawns said:

The city of vernon is, literally, at my doorstep and the only place for it to grow is in my direction.  

With all the other good advice here I would also add this. What, where, and when do you get back into the market? Is the kind of place you would like to move to available in an area you see yourself living at a price that would work? I take it that with your interests and agricultural hobbies that you would like at least a small acreage.

 

I think that when you find something that interests you at a reasonable price you’ll know the time is right.

[stawns]

2 minutes ago, 4petesake said:

With all the other good advice here I would also add this. What, where, and when do you get back into the market? Is the kind of place you would like to move to available in an area you see yourself living at a price that would work? I take it that with your interests and agricultural hobbies that you would like at least a small acreage.

 

I think that when you find something that interests you at a reasonable price you’ll know the time is right.

That's the rub, for sure.  I think I'd probably have to leave the Okanagan because I still want a small acreage to continue my cannabis farming.