[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks

[aGENT]

4 minutes ago, BPA said:

Didn’t Miller agent tweet out that “Show me the Money”?

 

 

Yes, and put out the comparison to Zib's $68m deal.

 

4 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Or it's a negotiating move through the media.  Start low, and come to terms half way at $8M AAV (when Miller's camp comes in asking $9M AAV).

 

Normally I'd say yes if the two sides were remotely close. $65m ($3m less than Zib's deal) divided by 7 years is an AAV of $9.29m.

 

Does that sound close to "something that starts with $7"?

 

Do you see Miller or his agent taking the proposed $15m discount? Or even a $10m one?

Edited April 6, 2022 by aGENT

[HKSR]

13 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Yes, and put out the comparison to Zib's $68m deal.

 

 

Normally I'd say yes if the two sides were remotely close. $65m ($3m less than Zib's deal) divided by 7 years is an AAV of $9.29m.

 

Does that sound close to "something that starts with $7"?

 

Do you see Miller or his agent taking the proposed $15m discount? Or even a $10m one?

$7M over 7 years is $49M

 

Zib was a year younger, and signed to 8 years.  So take $8.5M x 7 years to get a comparable.  Let's just start higher at $9M over 7 which is $63M

 

Halfway would be $8M over 7 = $56M.  That's $7M given up by both parties.

 

EDIT:  Just for comparisons sake... $8.5M x 7 is $59.5M.  So getting $56M wouldn't be a significant difference.

 

Edited April 6, 2022 by HKSR

[Alflives]

5 minutes ago, HKSR said:

$7M over 7 years is $49M

 

Zib was a year younger, and signed to 8 years.  So take $8.5M x 7 years to get a comparable.  Let's just start higher at $9M over 7 which is $63M

 

Halfway would be $8M over 7 = $56M.  That's $7M given up by both parties.

 

EDIT:  Just for comparisons sake... $8.5M x 7 is $59.5M.  So getting $56M wouldn't be a significant difference.

 

We can't overpay for players any more like Benning did.  The new regime (unless forced by ownership) will not sign Miller.  They will trade him and collect much needed assets.

From Miller's POV he needs to very careful.  His value is not equal to Zib.  No team is going to pay him like that.  I see him getting a 5-6 year deal at between 7.5 and 8 mil.  

So his total dollars will be between 40 and 50 million.  Not any more.  He's a good player, but he's not Zib.

[Nucker 67]

Got a feeling Miller won't be accepting any kind of discounted offer.  His agent will want him to make top dollar.  I know he's the Canucks best player this season (aside from Demko), but is that really saying much? The Canucks are a poor non-playoff team, again. They have been for years. Someone has to be the best player on that sinking ship.  And I can't get over that he'll be 30 when his new, expensive contract starts - if they re-sign him. 

 

Please don't re-sign Miller.  Instead, get Petey, Podz and Hoglander some younger, faster help, and improve the D. 

 

 

[HKSR]

2 minutes ago, Alflives said:

We can't overpay for players any more like Benning did.  The new regime (unless forced by ownership) will not sign Miller.  They will trade him and collect much needed assets.

From Miller's POV he needs to very careful.  His value is not equal to Zib.  No team is going to pay him like that.  I see him getting a 5-6 year deal at between 7.5 and 8 mil.  

So his total dollars will be between 40 and 50 million.  Not any more.  He's a good player, but he's not Zib.

I don't think he will get under $50M.  You really don't think a team will come along in UFA and give him a minimum of say $7.75M x 7 years?  That's already over $54M.  I'd say $8M AAV is where he'll end up at.  $8M x 7 would be a very workable contract assuming someone like Boeser is moved.

[JM_]

48 minutes ago, aGENT said:

 

 

Do you see Miller or his agent taking the proposed $15m discount? Or even a $10m one?

yes, for 2 reasons:

- he still has one more year on his current deal, and a lot can happen. One knee injury and he loses that value anyway. 

- bonus money, if he gets a front loaded deal and with a high bonus structure it helps negate the lower AAV for the end years of the deal. Plus it makes it more buyout proof for him.

 

Is that what we want, debatable, but that would help lower the AAV imo.

 

He has to play next year at a very high level again, hope not to get injured and hope he gets offered more than $50 million guaranteed. 

Edited April 6, 2022 by JM_

[higgyfan]

33 minutes ago, Alflives said:

We can't overpay for players any more like Benning did.  The new regime (unless forced by ownership) will not sign Miller.  They will trade him and collect much needed assets.

From Miller's POV he needs to very careful.  His value is not equal to Zib.  No team is going to pay him like that.  I see him getting a 5-6 year deal at between 7.5 and 8 mil.  

So his total dollars will be between 40 and 50 million.  Not any more.  He's a good player, but he's not Zib.

The Nucks management would be crazy not to grab that deal.  I am more interested in a lower term than the $ at this point.  I think JT will likely be looking for both.

 

Edited April 6, 2022 by higgyfan

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, NUCKER67 said:

Got a feeling Miller won't be accepting any kind of discounted offer.  His agent will want him to make top dollar.  I know he's the Canucks best player this season (aside from Demko), but is that really saying much? The Canucks are a poor non-playoff team, again. They have been for years. Someone has to be the best player on that sinking ship.  And I can't get over that he'll be 30 when his new, expensive contract starts - if they re-sign him. 

 

Please don't re-sign Miller.  Instead, get Petey, Podz and Hoglander some younger, faster help, and improve the D. 

 

 

Seen some fast guys that can't do crap. Raymond and Hagelin.   Fast isn't the only method to success.   Sure it's fun to watch these guys zip around the ice, but i'd happier if Brock became this generations comp to Hull-lite or Robtaille.  This obsession with speed is kind of silly.   Faster doesn't equal better.  Drasaitl isn't fast.   Neither was Gretzky. Bossy wasn't super fast either.    For every Glen Anderson or Messier there are 20 other guys that can skate like the wind and have zero finish.     AR was one of our fastest skaters... how's he doing in ARI?   

[IBatch]

Hate to be on the fence - i really like Miller - and if we can keep Horvat and EP we'd be something special.   

 

Let's look at St. louis as a case study.  O'Reilly at under 8 - basically what EPs getting.    They've managed to keep their 50/60 point guys in the 5 plus price range aside from Tarasenko - and let's be honest - he was one special player and earned his deal.   Schwartz - Schenn,  Perron, Stastny et al - they got good value like we have with Horvat.   We can't start blowing the budget on older UFAs hoping they are one out of ten types that actually earn it ...  Again i love Miller - wish we had two or three more guys like him.   At the 5/6 range.   Once we start paying these guys for what they've already done or what we hope they might do / we roll the dice.   We are better off rolling the dice with younger guys.   Because we don't have any left it puts us in a tough spot.   I hope we can trade Miller.   But if we can't then a reasonable signing isn't the end of the world either. 

[SilentSam]

2 hours ago, Alflives said:

We can't overpay for players any more like Benning did.  The new regime (unless forced by ownership) will not sign Miller.  They will trade him and collect much needed assets.

From Miller's POV he needs to very careful.  His value is not equal to Zib.  No team is going to pay him like that.  I see him getting a 5-6 year deal at between 7.5 and 8 mil.  

So his total dollars will be between 40 and 50 million.  Not any more.  He's a good player, but he's not Zib.

Every team does this with players Alf,   
it’s defining who is truly worth the money.

 

We cant be paying Bo and Brock 7+ m,  Do we start saving that 8m number for Petey,  who isn’t there yet.

3 players on this team that you can see will be worth 8 are Demko , Hughes, Miller..

it’s the term and clauses that can handcuff more than the money..

 

if I was a high end player on the Canucks,

I would take 7.5 - 8.5 for 6-7 years,. 
but I would want movement flexibility from the 4th year on if we were not in the playoffs.

 

LE handcuffed us because we couldn’t move him, and he would not agree to go.

 

players working with you in a contract for flexibility are worth a bit more per year, or in bonuses.

 

my opinion.

[mll]

15 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Seen some fast guys that can't do crap. Raymond and Hagelin.   Fast isn't the only method to success.   Sure it's fun to watch these guys zip around the ice, but i'd happier if Brock became this generations comp to Hull-lite or Robtaille.  This obsession with speed is kind of silly.   Faster doesn't equal better.  Drasaitl isn't fast.   Neither was Gretzky. Bossy wasn't super fast either.    For every Glen Anderson or Messier there are 20 other guys that can skate like the wind and have zero finish.     AR was one of our fastest skaters... how's he doing in ARI?   

It's Rutherford that said his preference is to have fast skaters and thinks Vancouver are lacking.  Also says that to chose between size or speed, his preference is speed.

[Fanuck]

10 hours ago, mll said:

Satiar Shah says that it's certain that Vancouver will make an offer to extend Miller but they have a number in mind and won't go beyond.  He can't see them paying the Zibanejad deal.  He believes their offer will start with a 7 over 6-7 years and overall value won't exceed 50M.

 

That's a lot of speculation, but let's just for arguments sake believe it's legit - this all but means he's going to be traded.  Miller would be leaving multiple millions on the table if he took that deal from Vancouver and he'd likely need to put up with several more seasons of 'mediocrity' on the ice as well if he stayed here.

[aGENT]

2 hours ago, HKSR said:

$7M over 7 years is $49M

 

Zib was a year younger, and signed to 8 years.  So take $8.5M x 7 years to get a comparable.  Let's just start higher at $9M over 7 which is $63M

 

Halfway would be $8M over 7 = $56M.  That's $7M given up by both parties.

 

EDIT:  Just for comparisons sake... $8.5M x 7 is $59.5M.  So getting $56M wouldn't be a significant difference.

 

Unfortunately, that's not really how this works. Zib got $68m, Miller is going to want closer to that, regardless of how many years you want to spread it over. Yeah he's probably not going to get Zib's $68m given he's a year older and doesn't have the same, long term, high level track record but I think you're being extremely optimistic that he'll settle for less than $62-65m. At BEST, maybe you convince him at $60 to sign now for the guaranteed, risk free pay day. Any less than that and he takes his chances IMO . And $60m / 7 years is still an $8.57m AAV and probably 2 years longer than we should be signing him for.

 

2 hours ago, JM_ said:

yes, for 2 reasons:

- he still has one more year on his current deal, and a lot can happen. One knee injury and he loses that value anyway. 

- bonus money, if he gets a front loaded deal and with a high bonus structure it helps negate the lower AAV for the end years of the deal. Plus it makes it more buyout proof for him.

 

Is that what we want, debatable, but that would help lower the AAV imo.

 

He has to play next year at a very high level again, hope not to get injured and hope he gets offered more than $50 million guaranteed. 

Barring a career ending injury, even with injuries, he's looking at a $60m+ pay day if he goes to free agency. Bad case and his value does take a sizeable hit and, he can still get the $50m we're offering AND pick his team and pay less taxes/play for contender. He has almost zero reason to take a $10m+ bath (plus higher taxes and cost of living) here. Other than a career ending injury. I doubt he'll be making his decision based on that.

Edited April 6, 2022 by aGENT

[JM_]

29 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Unfortunately, that's not really how this works. Zib got $68m, Miller is going to want closer to that, regardless of how many years you want to spread it over. Yeah he's probably not going to get Zib's $68m given he's a year older and doesn't have the same, long term, high level track record but I think you're being extremely optimistic that he'll settle for less than $62-65m. At BEST, maybe you convince him at $60 to sign now for the guaranteed, risk free pay day. Any less than that and he takes his chances IMO . And $60m / 7 years is still an $8.57m AAV and probably 2 years longer than we should be signing him for.

 

Barring a career ending injury, even with injuries, he's looking at a $60m+ pay day if he goes to free agency. Bad case and his value does take a sizeable hit and, he can still get the $50m we're offering AND pick his team and pay less taxes/play for contender. He has almost zero reason to take a $10m+ bath (plus higher taxes and cost of living) here. Other than a career ending injury. I doubt he'll be making his decision based on that.

well,  I guess we'll find out in 4 months. Why couldn't it be over 8 years btw? that brings it down to 7.5

[D.B Cooper]

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

Seen some fast guys that can't do crap. Raymond and Hagelin.   Fast isn't the only method to success.   Sure it's fun to watch these guys zip around the ice, but i'd happier if Brock became this generations comp to Hull-lite or Robtaille.  This obsession with speed is kind of silly.   Faster doesn't equal better.  Drasaitl isn't fast.   Neither was Gretzky. Bossy wasn't super fast either.    For every Glen Anderson or Messier there are 20 other guys that can skate like the wind and have zero finish.     AR was one of our fastest skaters... how's he doing in ARI?   

I agree with this post, but the Boeser comment made me LOL.  
The guy has 1 good year and everyone keeps thinking him sucking this year is the one off. 
He has shown NOTHING that says even a poor mans version of Hull or LR is possible. 
He is closer to the 3rd line than 1st these days, and a LOT of it has to do with his speed, or server lack of it…..

 

[Fanuck]

25 minutes ago, JM_ said:

well,  I guess we'll find out in 4 months. Why couldn't it be over 8 years btw? that brings it down to 7.5

Do we really want that contract on the books when Miller is 38yo?    Let me guess, Miller will be one of those rare players who is as productive at 38 as they are at 29 - who is that again........? 

[HKSR]

1 hour ago, aGENT said:

Unfortunately, that's not really how this works. Zib got $68m, Miller is going to want closer to that, regardless of how many years you want to spread it over. Yeah he's probably not going to get Zib's $68m given he's a year older and doesn't have the same, long term, high level track record but I think you're being extremely optimistic that he'll settle for less than $62-65m. At BEST, maybe you convince him at $60 to sign now for the guaranteed, risk free pay day. Any less than that and he takes his chances IMO . And $60m / 7 years is still an $8.57m AAV and probably 2 years longer than we should be signing him for.

 

Barring a career ending injury, even with injuries, he's looking at a $60m+ pay day if he goes to free agency. Bad case and his value does take a sizeable hit and, he can still get the $50m we're offering AND pick his team and pay less taxes/play for contender. He has almost zero reason to take a $10m+ bath (plus higher taxes and cost of living) here. Other than a career ending injury. I doubt he'll be making his decision based on that.

Fair, but if it's just about the total dollar amount, then why not $60M over 8 years.  That's a $7.5M AAV.  More than manageable.  In 8 years, that's probably the equivalent of a $6M cap hit in today's dollars.

[HKSR]

33 minutes ago, JM_ said:

well,  I guess we'll find out in 4 months. Why couldn't it be over 8 years btw? that brings it down to 7.5

Great minds think alike lol

[JM_]

9 minutes ago, Fanuck said:

Do we really want that contract on the books when Miller is 38yo?    Let me guess, Miller will be one of those rare players who is as productive at 38 as they are at 29 - who is that again........? 

I don't think we would be, maybe 0.5 ppg if we're lucky by that point? 

[EP Phone Home]

3 hours ago, NUCKER67 said:

Got a feeling Miller won't be accepting any kind of discounted offer.  His agent will want him to make top dollar.  I know he's the Canucks best player this season (aside from Demko), but is that really saying much? The Canucks are a poor non-playoff team, again. They have been for years. Someone has to be the best player on that sinking ship.  And I can't get over that he'll be 30 when his new, expensive contract starts - if they re-sign him. 

 

Please don't re-sign Miller.  Instead, get Petey, Podz and Hoglander some younger, faster help, and improve the D. 

 

 

First and foremost this has to be the area that management needs to address. And you help address some of that with the Miller return. Surely can’t be as bad as what we started with this season. Just scorched earth on our right side. *shudders*