[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks

[BPA]

FYI…this is what JG said…

 

“Calgary has a special place in my heart,” he said, gushing about the way he has been treated by the organization, his teammates, fans and even the local media since he was selected as a fourth-round long-shot in the 2011 NHL Draft. “Everything about this city, I love. My wife loves it here. You guys can tell on Twitter — my uncle, my dad, my mom, my sisters, my brother, everyone loves Calgary. It has a special place in our heart and we love it here, so we’ll see what happens.

 

“It’s kind of a big decision here and I’m just going to try to figure out what’s best for me first and my family and go from there, but Calgary is a special place for me and I do really, really love it here.”

[204CanucksFan]

1 hour ago, Jester13 said:

From JT's words, he wants to be here and loves playing for the Canucks and the team we're creating. He also said he enjoys the role he plays with us and that it would likely be diminished elsewhere. 7yX8.25AAV hits a dollar amount that he could very well be okay with. 

 

Something in the mid- to high 50mill range is not some sort of compromise. 

 

Go watch the podcast with him. He clearly wants to be here and isn't just talking out his arse. What we're seeing is very similar to what we saw with Brock. Both sides were playing a game of brinksmanship, the player comes out multiple times to say how much they want to be here, and then close to the last minute kapow, we signed Brock to something that works for both sides. Miller at eight years is a little much, but Miller at seven years is palatable.

 

JR has also publicly said that a team having a contract that isn't the most favourable in the latter years is not the end of the world, and most teams have a contract like that, which is why it won't surprise me if we sign him to 7X8.25. Some reports said we're offering him something in the 7m range, so coming up a million'ish and Miller coming down a year is not a unreasonable prediction. 

But I really hope the team isn't OK with that contract. That means we are paying him the same AAV and until JT is the same age as, who I think is a very close comparable, Blake Wheeler. 

 

No, thank you.

 

That contract is an albatross that was doomed to fail the moment it was announced and it'd be the same thing with JT. Both players have very similar play styles and career arcs, and both players really broke through in their late 20's when given the opportunity to play more minutes with more skilled linemates. 

 

Since his new extension kicked in at the start of the 2019-20 season Wheeler has not managed to be a PPG player once, has hit 20 goals once and has been a defensive liability at -31. If their careers continue to line up like they have so far, that means JT has two season left at PPG or better. That takes us through year 1 of your 7 year proposal. Are you OK with paying a player 6 years at $8.25 mil to perform at less than PPG? Because I am most definitely not ok with that and that is the most likely way I see his career arc continuing.

 

I'm not saying he's going to go full Loui after year 1 or anything like that. I'm just saying, at that salary, every year he doesn't perform at at least a PPG is wasted money, and 6 years is a long time to be wasting money (again).

[Jester13]

1 hour ago, stawns said:

C'mon, JG said the same things........they all do. 

Go watch the podcast. It helps when you see the player actually say those things and how he says it. It was genuine and not just full of platitudes like JG. 

Edit: I will add that JG said a lot of the same things but then last minute signed with Columbus, but it's very possible that he was telling the truth that the decision was very tough and he wasn't stringing them along the whole time and it came down to the final moments.

Edited August 17, 2022 by Jester13

[Jester13]

2 minutes ago, 204CanucksFan said:

But I really hope the team isn't OK with that contract. That means we are paying him the same AAV and until JT is the same age as, who I think is a very close comparable, Blake Wheeler. 

 

No, thank you.

 

That contract is an albatross that was doomed to fail the moment it was announced and it'd be the same thing with JT. Both players have very similar play styles and career arcs, and both players really broke through in their late 20's when given the opportunity to play more minutes with more skilled linemates. 

 

Since his new extension kicked in at the start of the 2019-20 season Wheeler has not managed to be a PPG player once, has hit 20 goals once and has been a defensive liability at -31. If their careers continue to line up like they have so far, that means JT has two season left at PPG or better. That takes us through year 1 of your 7 year proposal. Are you OK with paying a player 6 years at $8.25 mil to perform at less than PPG? Because I am most definitely not ok with that and that is the most likely way I see his career arc continuing.

 

I'm not saying he's going to go full Loui after year 1 or anything like that. I'm just saying, at that salary, every year he doesn't perform at at least a PPG is wasted money, and 6 years is a long time to be wasting money (again).

With the forward group we have, I don't see why Miller can't continue an elite pace each year for quite some time. Pulling one name as a comparable means nothing; I could easily do the same thing to show Miller will be successful late into his career. Granted, signing him for seven years is a risk, but the cap will continue to rise and it could just as easily be a steal of a contract for us. 

[stawns]

11 minutes ago, Jester13 said:

Go watch the podcast. It helps when you see the player actually say those things and how he says it. It was genuine and not just full of platitudes like JG. 

Edit: I will add that JG said a lot of the same things but then last minute signed with Columbus, but it's very possible that he was telling the truth that the decision was very tough and he wasn't stringing them along the whole time and it came down to the final moments.

again, JG said the same things.  None of it matters when tens of millions are at take.  

[stawns]

14 minutes ago, Jester13 said:

Go watch the podcast. It helps when you see the player actually say those things and how he says it. It was genuine and not just full of platitudes like JG. 

Edit: I will add that JG said a lot of the same things but then last minute signed with Columbus, but it's very possible that he was telling the truth that the decision was very tough and he wasn't stringing them along the whole time and it came down to the final moments.

he said those things because those are the things you are supposed to say. Columbus didn't outbid Calgary, he had no intention of staying on Calgary even though he said otherwise.  I have zero reason to believe the same isn't true in Miller's case. 

[Jester13]

1 minute ago, stawns said:

again, JG said the same things.  None of it matters when tens of millions are at take.  

Body language, demeanor, and actual words matter when saying these things. JB said things like, "Calgary has a special place in my heart, so we'll see what happens." This, to me, says he was likely on the way out long ago but had a tough time saying it directly. Miller, on the other hand, talks about these things and also the direction of the team, how much he enjoys his leadership role, what they're building, how elsewhere his role would likely be diminished, etc. All of these things matter.

[Jester13]

3 minutes ago, stawns said:

he said those things because those are the things you are supposed to say. Columbus didn't outbid Calgary, he had no intention of staying on Calgary even though he said otherwise.  I have zero reason to believe the same isn't true in Miller's case. 

The fact that they're different people doesn't come into play with you?

[stawns]

Just now, Jester13 said:

Body language, demeanor, and actual words matter when saying these things. JB said things like, "Calgary has a special place in my heart, so we'll see what happens." This, to me, says he was likely on the way out long ago but had a tough time saying it directly. Miller, on the other hand, talks about these things and also the direction of the team, how much he enjoys his leadership role, what they're building, how elsewhere his role would likely be diminished, etc. All of these things matter.

and Miller says they're far apart and respects their decision if they go another direction.

[stawns]

Just now, Jester13 said:

The fact that they're different people doesn't come into play with you?

nope, hockey players are pretty cookie cutter and they are well coached in what to say and how to act with media

[Gawdzukes]

10 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

We are going to be a powerhouse this year offensively.  We have one of the best top 9 forward groups in the entire NHL, we have one of the best left sided D in the Western Conference who can all move the puck and we have a world class Vezina candidate goalie.

 

I think JT knows this and so he is probably thinking that he can have another monster year.  If he can stay healthy I think he can put up 100+ points next year with Boudreau at the helm from the beginning and with Petey coming in to also have a monster year.  We are so good up front that Horvat and Garland will be on the 3rd line.

 

Not trading Miller prior to training camp might backfire on the Canucks.  Miller might be the best UFA next summer not named MacKinnon or Pastrnak, who will both likely re-sign with their current teams.

 

No reason Miller can't get a 9x7 contract next summer if he has another monster year.

 

Also, in terms of the 2023 TDL, forget trying to trade Miller at that time.  If the season goes as expected we will probably be buyers not sellers.  If we pick up a guy like Severson at the deadline there is no reason we can't challenge Colorado in the playoffs.  Remember that Colorado got a new goalie this summer, so they don't really have a true #1 netminder, while we have a guy who can potentially win a series on his own.  Plus our power play and penalty killing will be much improved this year.

 

Picking up a guy like De Haan could solidify our D, especially if Poolman is 100% ready to go.  I'm pumped for the season really.  I think we have real shot at winning our division.

The thing is, if the team is indeed better and has better depth and an improved top 9 JT is surely going to score less. Other players will be filling his minutes and scoring the points while JT will be used more as a specialized typical player and not rolled out in every single scoring situation. He'll also be concentrated on defence more if he doesn't have to do "everything" up front. Gawd forbid he may even end up on the second line from time to time.

 

Unless of course he just goes (Sutter) balls out to get points in order to obtain a contract. Last year went perfectly for him but I doubt he hits 100. 90 will be a big stretch.

 

45 minutes ago, 204CanucksFan said:

But I really hope the team isn't OK with that contract. That means we are paying him the same AAV and until JT is the same age as, who I think is a very close comparable, Blake Wheeler. 

 

No, thank you.

 

That contract is an albatross that was doomed to fail the moment it was announced and it'd be the same thing with JT. Both players have very similar play styles and career arcs, and both players really broke through in their late 20's when given the opportunity to play more minutes with more skilled linemates. 

 

Since his new extension kicked in at the start of the 2019-20 season Wheeler has not managed to be a PPG player once, has hit 20 goals once and has been a defensive liability at -31. If their careers continue to line up like they have so far, that means JT has two season left at PPG or better. That takes us through year 1 of your 7 year proposal. Are you OK with paying a player 6 years at $8.25 mil to perform at less than PPG? Because I am most definitely not ok with that and that is the most likely way I see his career arc continuing.

 

I'm not saying he's going to go full Loui after year 1 or anything like that. I'm just saying, at that salary, every year he doesn't perform at at least a PPG is wasted money, and 6 years is a long time to be wasting money (again).

Well said. It's great to have nice shiny things for right now but this don't plan for the future thing is really killing this team the last 5 years running now. I remember Wheeler and he actually said I want to retire in Winnipeg. But yeah that's a good comparable and Wheeler is actually performing very well for an aging player. Just under ppg for the last 3 years and 2 years left bringing him to 37.

 

If JT didn't have a career year a 5 x 7m would have been a nice fair deal. Really bad math to be paying him $9m in 8 years time though.

 

I think these 7/8 year deals are garbage, for older players especially. I hope they get rid of those long deals somehow. 

Edited August 17, 2022 by Gawdzukes

[Jester13]

5 minutes ago, stawns said:

and Miller says they're far apart and respects their decision if they go another direction.

Miller said "We're not as close as we want to be", which is different than saying "We're far apart." Anyways, agree to disagree. At least we're doing our part to get to 2,000.

[204CanucksFan]

12 minutes ago, Jester13 said:

With the forward group we have, I don't see why Miller can't continue an elite pace each year for quite some time. Pulling one name as a comparable means nothing; I could easily do the same thing to show Miller will be successful late into his career. Granted, signing him for seven years is a risk, but the cap will continue to rise and it could just as easily be a steal of a contract for us. 

I hope so as well but I bet the Jets were thinking the same thing. Wheelers most common linemates over his last 3 seasons are Scheifele, Connor, Ehlers, Stastny, Dubois and Laine. That's a pretty elite group to be playing with, especially when you add Wheelers name in to it.

 

I'd love to know who you have in mind or find as a comparable counter argument. Keep in mind I'm not just using Wheeler because it makes a JT contract extension possibly look bad, I could pick any one of probably 100 aging vet contracts to do that. I'm using Wheeler Vs. JT because of how remarkably similar their careers have been at basically every stage and how similar they are in play style.

[Jester13]

9 minutes ago, 204CanucksFan said:

I hope so as well but I bet the Jets were thinking the same thing. Wheelers most common linemates over his last 3 seasons are Scheifele, Connor, Ehlers, Stastny, Dubois and Laine. That's a pretty elite group to be playing with, especially when you add Wheelers name in to it.

 

I'd love to know who you have in mind or find as a comparable counter argument. Keep in mind I'm not just using Wheeler because it makes a JT contract extension possibly look bad, I could pick any one of probably 100 aging vet contracts to do that. I'm using Wheeler Vs. JT because of how remarkably similar their careers have been at basically every stage and how similar they are in play style.

We're literally rehashing the same things that have been said throughout the last 1133 pages. Signing Miller to a seven year contract is not going to crush our cap and team long term, with the cap going up over time. I'm all for trading Miller for good value, but I'm also open to signing him to seven years at $8m and then figuring out the D situation somehow else down the road.

[Strawbone]

16 minutes ago, Jester13 said:

We're literally rehashing the same things that have been said throughout the last 1133 pages. Signing Miller to a seven year contract is not going to crush our cap and team long term, with the cap going up over time. I'm all for trading Miller for good value, but I'm also open to signing him to seven years at $8m and then figuring out the D situation somehow else down the road.

Yeah that pretty much sums up this entire thread 

[Angry Goose]

people who complain and cry about rehashing yet continue to rehash.

 

yeah cool

[Mustard Tiger]

15 minutes ago, Jester13 said:

We're literally rehashing the same things that have been said throughout the last 1133 pages. Signing Miller to a seven year contract is not going to crush our cap and team long term, with the cap going up over time. I'm all for trading Miller for good value, but I'm also open to signing him to seven years at $8m and then figuring out the D situation somehow else down the road.

I'm not really keen to sign him, But Vancouver fans have to be the only fanbase that thinks once you sign a guy to any term deal, you can never trade him at some point lol. ( not talking about you, just in general ) 

 

Pens love old guys, Maybe we sign Miller then trade him to the pens in 4 years. Just a scenario as an example haha 

[cripplereh]

Many things may happen till puck drop.Miller for us untill it happens will be a big ?

[grandmaster]

1 hour ago, stawns said:

they don't mean as much, combined, as tens of millions of dollars, no.  Do you think Vancouver is the only team with good teammates, good coaching staff and a good city?  I'd bet he'd list off half the league that meets his requirements in those areas.  I'm sure he'd stay in Van if they shell out huge dollars over max term

So you agree with 1-2M per is not that significant of a reduction to stay where he is happy but you also say half the teams would meet his standards? 
 

List me 16 cities that match Vancouver’s level. There is a reason why home prices are so high here. How many NHL cities have beaches, mountains and high end neighbourhoods like here? Not to mention the milder weather in the winters (you can scratch away all the eastern US and other Canadian cities).

 

Tell me how many coaches and teams have given him the same opportunities and confidence as he has here. He is a go to guy in Vancouver and that’s big for a player.  Would he be guaranteed the same role with half of these other teams? Maybe. Maybe not.
 

He is also particularly tight with a lot of players here. Working around friends is also big. We’ve seen lots of videos. Does he have other friends in other teams? Sure, but he has only played on a couple teams prior to coming here. Not exactly half the NHL. 

[J-Dizzle]

50 minutes ago, Jester13 said:

We're literally rehashing the same things that have been said throughout the last 1133 pages. Signing Miller to a seven year contract is not going to crush our cap and team long term, with the cap going up over time. I'm all for trading Miller for good value, but I'm also open to signing him to seven years at $8m and then figuring out the D situation somehow else down the road.

that might be wishful thinking...