[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks

[CaptainLinden16]

14 hours ago, Chris12345 said:

But what if you got Todd Bertuzzi, Bryan McCabe, and Jarkko Rutto or Brendan Morrison and Dennis Petterson?

What if JT gets better every year as the players around him mature and improve.  What if...What if....its a risk either way.  The probabilities are higher staying with JT than hoping that you beat out 32 teams for the free agents that you want while miraculously getting a really good deal for the free agent contracts.  The draft is really really challenging.  You cannot say with absolutely certainty that you will improve the team in anyway with a trade.  You cannot say you will improve the team by keeping JT with certainty either.  It is a two sided risk as most things are in life.  

[Coconuts]

7 minutes ago, 48MPHSlapShot said:

The reaction when he's resigned is going to be fun.

The reaction if he's not re-signed is going to be fun.

[Coconuts]

[CaptainLinden16]

14 hours ago, coryberg said:

 

You completely and utterly missed the point.  Its not that you cant draft a great player or sign a great free agent.  Anything is possible.  That doesn't mean its probable.  You are missing the inherent risks of trading a player who is top 10 in scoring and the primary play driver for the team.  Trading him gives you no guarantee for replacement.  It isn't even more likely than not that you will NOT replace him.  The probability is well less than 50% that the cap space or the picks/prospects yield a comparable player.

Edited March 19, 2022 by CaptainLinden16

[aGENT]

2 hours ago, JM_ said:

we've all seen how bringing in UFAs can be a disastrous fit. We know Miller fits here. Thats actually worth something. 

 

The magic two year re-tool comes with risks as well. I don't see much effort on the 'move Miller' side acknowledging the risks of the prospects and picks we might get for Miller not working out.

No move is without risk. That is not an argument I've seen anyone make. Moving Miller is less risk.

 

Re-signing Miller at something like $9x8, in a best case scenario, you get something close to a 1ppg player for the duration of that (LARGE) contract roughly at/near it's value.

 

That's also the least likely outcome. 

 

Every other outcome of that decision ranges from "meh" to "godawful, Player Name-esque anchor".

 

Guess what happens in the highly unlikely, worst case scenario, where every single piece we get in return for Miller is an absolute bust? Not even a 4th line grinder in the bunch.

 

You still have $9m in cap space and the mountains of opportunity it represents.

 

2 hours ago, stawns said:

That they used Wheelers $8m+ contract on 2-3 quality depth players to support MS, CH, NE and JM they'd have been far, far, far better off

 

And if we're sticking with parallels, the trade return from moving Wheeler out as well...

 

Not that they would have, as they were already in a contention window, unlike us.

Edited March 19, 2022 by aGENT

[HKSR]

6 minutes ago, Gawdzukes said:

Are you sure? I can direct you to a very scientific study where the "researcher" handpicked 23 random players 29/30 years of age containing at least 10 hall of fame players and showed half of them were still pretty decent at 35/36.

 

 

 

Ha ha I laugh every time I see that thread. Needed a good laugh this morning. I also was one of the few people that loved the trade initially and I also think he has provided us tremendous value for that. At the end of this contract I don't think JB was ever planning on anything but a wait and see approach when it came to re-signing Miller. I don't think there is any way in the world he would be re-signing Miller in this situation. If he were to have continued at his pace and a 4 or 5 year deal at $7m or so was on the table I think it definitely would have been considered but .... not anymore. 

 

As you indicated no one outsmarts father time ... except 

 

 

Seriously though I get how much people are in love with Miller with the crazy claims they are making. I almost want to see him signed to a juicy retirement deal just so everyone can see all hoops and logistical obstacles we have to jump through just to ice a team. I will ultimately be blown away if JR and co go that route after their stated directives. Sufficed to say my expectations would be almost zero moving forward.

 

 

Just for the record, it was some research to see what 29 or 30 year olds finished top 25 in scoring in the past 10 years or so.  You know... kinda like what Miller is doing this year... kinda better to compare Miller to guys like that than Raffi Torres or Steve Bernier.  Just thought it was logical.

[shiznak]

26 minutes ago, HKSR said:

The reality is it is VERY rare that a player that is 29 or 30 is in the top 10 in scoring.  That makes them a different beast altogether.  You can't generalize when these guys are clearly unique. 

Actually it not that quite rare.

 

Players who were 29+ in age, in the top 10, in scoring that year.
 

2016: Thornton, Pavelski, Crosby, and Wheeler 

2017: Crosby, Marchand, Backstrom, and Burns

2018: Giroux, Kessel, Kopitar, Crosby, Wheeler and Malkin

2019: Kane, Crosby, Stamkos, and Marchand

2020: Kane and Marchand

2021: Kane, Crosby, and Marchand

2022: Gaudreau, Miller, Kadri, and Ovechkin

 

I could go back further down the years, but I’m not wasting my time.

[Chris12345]

8 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

The reaction if he's not re-signed is going to be fun.

Totally which is why I like to draft high and draft often. More swings at the plate.

[HKSR]

16 minutes ago, stawns said:

You really are your own worst enemy in this thread

 

You are incapable of accepting logic. Your mind must spin in circles all day haha

 

EDIT: Yknow what?  I apologize.  I'm not gonna resort to personal insults.  I take what I said back.

Edited March 19, 2022 by HKSR

[aGENT]

3 minutes ago, CaptainLinden16 said:

 

You completely and utterly missed the point.  Its not that you cant draft a great player or sign a great free agent.  Anything is possible.  That doesn't mean its probable.  You are missing the inherent risks of trading a player who is top 10 in scoring and the primary play driver for the team.  Trading him gives you no guarantee for replacement.  It isn't even more likely than not that you will NOT replace him.  The probability is well less than 50% that the cap space or the picks/prospects yield a comparable player.

Problem is, being this is an outlier/peak season, It's also not probable that he remains top 10 in scoring. And that's BEFORE age related decline comes for him (likely in 3'ish years), further sapping his production and value under a new, $9m x 8 contract.

[HKSR]

3 minutes ago, shiznak said:

Actually it not that quite rare.

 

Players who were 29+ in age, in the top 10, in scoring that year.
 

2016: Thornton, Pavelski, Crosby, and Wheeler 

2017: Crosby, Marchand, Backstrom, and Burns

2018: Giroux, Kessel, Kopitar, Crosby, Wheeler and Malkin

2019: Kane, Crosby, Stamkos, and Marchand

2020: Kane and Marchand

2021: Kane, Crosby, and Marchand

2022: Gaudreau, Miller, Kadri, and Ovechkin

 

I could go back further down the years, but I’m not wasting my time.

Exactly.  How many are duplicates on that list?  7 years and how many guys have done it?

[Coconuts]

Just now, Chris12345 said:

Totally which is why I like to draft high and draft often. More swings at the plate.

Drafting is interesting, but picks aren't what I want in return for Miller, at least not as the primary return. Would I be fine with a 1st being included? Absolutely, I'd love an extra 1st this year or next that we could use on a D prospect.

 

But grade A prospects, players on the cusp, or NHL ready youth has always been my primary target. If anything's going to set up this team to have an extensive window it's going to be that. High end players we can integrate on ELC's and who are cost controlled RFA assets, all our top guys have graduated and we're lacking this in the pipeline now. 

 

It could solve succession issues on D and up front, and it'd help solve the cap headache this roster currently faces. I don't see us contending over the remainder of whatever's left of Miller's prime, and I don't see him being worth the 9M+ he'll surely command four years from now. He's our greatest trade asset right now and I'm fully on board with moving him out. 

[stawns]

1 minute ago, HKSR said:

Exactly.  How many are duplicates on that list?  7 years and how many guys have done it?

Exactly........players who have done it over and over throughout their entire careers often continue into the peak of their careers and often into their early 30's.  Is there a player on that list who is an outlier?  

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, shiznak said:

Actually it not that quite rare.

 

Players who were 29+ in age, in the top 10, in scoring that year.
 

2016: Thornton, Pavelski, Crosby, and Wheeler 

2017: Crosby, Marchand, Backstrom, and Burns

2018: Giroux, Kessel, Kopitar, Crosby, Wheeler and Malkin

2019: Kane, Crosby, Stamkos, and Marchand

2020: Kane and Marchand

2021: Kane, Crosby, and Marchand

2022: Gaudreau, Miller, Kadri, and Ovechkin

 

I could go back further down the years, but I’m not wasting my time.

Miller will be 30 when his next contract starts.  And we need to eliminate all the guys who signed their big dollar contracts before age 30.  So how many is that?  Is it none or was Wheeler one?  It's a clear mistake to sign a 30 year old guy to a huge contract and expect him to be a cornerstone to a franchise. 

Is there a Cup winner who signed any 30 year old player (regardless of the points produced) to an 8+ per long term deal?   

[Coconuts]

1 minute ago, Alflives said:

Miller will be 30 when his next contract starts.  And we need to eliminate all the guys who signed their big dollar contracts before age 30.  So how many is that?  Is it none or was Wheeler one?  It's a clear mistake to sign a 30 year old guy to a huge contract and expect him to be a cornerstone to a franchise. 

Is there a Cup winner who signed any 30 year old player (regardless of the points produced) to an 8+ per long term deal?   

To further narrow that question, how many such players exist who were paid that prior to winning said cup as opposed to getting that contract after? I don't care about thank you contracts. 

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, stawns said:

Exactly........players who have done it over and over throughout their entire careers often continue into the peak of their careers and often into their early 30's.  Is there a player on that list who is an outlier?  

Again, it is rare.  When you can count the number of players that have done it with your fingers, you know the guys that do this is special.

[Boudrias]

2 minutes ago, stawns said:

Exactly........players who have done it over and over throughout their entire careers often continue into the peak of their careers and often into their early 30's.  Is there a player on that list who is an outlier?  

Another consideration is the play of Podz in his rookie season. Mostly a 3rd line player this season but his potential is huge. I think he nails down a top 6 roll next year. Totally agree with your points on Miller. 

[shiznak]

7 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Exactly.  How many are duplicates on that list?  7 years and how many guys have done it?

Are you really expecting Miller to continue to be in the top 10 in scoring the next 2-4 years? 

[stawns]

Just now, HKSR said:

Again, it is rare.  When you can count the number of players that have done it with your fingers, you know the guys that do this is special.

So, for you, Miller is a Stamkos, Kane, Crosby etc etc?

[48MPHSlapShot]

17 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

The reaction if he's not re-signed is going to be fun.

Nah, seems to me most people that aren't as keen on moving him understand that if we do move him, it will likely be because management knew he had no intention of staying anyways.

 

The real salt will come from the "Dump him for whatever" folk if and when he's resigned, and it will be glorious